Perilous
Times and Climate Change
Beatriz, first hurricane of the season, strengthens off
Mexican coast
By Jason Samenow
Projected track of tropical storm Beatriz. Region under hurricane
hurricane warning shaded in red, tropical storm warning in blue.
(National Hurricane Center)
The eastern Pacific’s second named storm, Beatriz, has
strengthened to near hurricane strength this afternoon. With
maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, Beatriz need only add four mph
to reach hurricane status.
The tropical storm, 90 miles southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico
is moving north-northeast at 8 mph. Hurricane warnings have been
posted from Zihuatenejo to Cabo Corrientes along the Mexican
coast, and tropical storms warnings are in effect from Tecpan de
Galeana westward to east of Zihuatanejo. Cabo Corrientes is the
cape upon which the resort city Puerto Vallarta sits.
The storm is projected to make its closet approach to the coast
tonight or early Tuesday. The most significant impact is likely to
be torrential rains, flash flooding and the resultant mudslides.
Up to 6-12 inches of rain is projected by the National Hurricane
Center along the coasts of the states of Guerrero, Jalisco,
Colima, and Michoacan with isolated amounts to 20 inches in the
mountainous terrain.
Infrared satellite image of tropical storm Beatriz
In addition to the rain, storm surge flooding along with “large
and destructive” waves are possible within the hurricane warning
area.
Although the storm’s strongest winds of potentially hurricane
force are likely to remain offshore, the probability of at least
tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher ranges from 50-90
percent in the warned area.
The current intensity forecast strengthens Beatriz’ maximum
sustained winds to 90 mph by 2 p.m tomorrow. The storm currently
sits over favorable very warm water of around 85 degrees. In
addition, wind shear - which is hostile to storms - is light.
However, gradual weakening is forecast to commence Wednesday once
the storm moves over cooler water in the open Pacific.
By Jason Samenow | 05:30 PM ET, 06/20/2011