Floods force many to face climate change reality
Pastor Dale Morgan
Floods force many to face climate change reality*
22 Jul 2007 23:04:59 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Douwe Miedema
BRIESKOW-FINKENHEERD, Germany, July 23 (Reuters) - Fisherman Peter
Schneider knows the floods come each year and says they are good for
business -- but few other people see any benefit as experts warn of more
high water to come.
"We fishermen have always lived with that. We're happy when the floods
come, because it can only be good for the fish," he said in his village
close to the Oder river that forms the border between Germany and Poland.
Schneider's business almost went belly-up 10 years ago, when the river
gushed through the dykes protecting a low-lying swath of land in this
former East German region and immersed the building where he keeps his
boats and nets.
The catastrophe forced thousands from their homes in Germany and
elsewhere, and experts now say climate change may cause more disasters
in Europe and across the world, with evidence increasing that global
temperatures are rising.
"It would be wrong to deny the possible impact of climate change on
flooding because if we (waited for more) statistical proof it may be too
late," said Wolfgang Grabs at the World Meteorological Organisation of
the United Nations.
Warmer air can hold more water and will unleash more energy when the
weather turns bad, Grabs said, making storms heavier and boosting rainfall.
That mechanism may well explain an observed rise in flash floods in
Europe over the last decade, he said.
Fisherman Schneider said flooded meadows offer breeding fish warmer
water and more food, but most people would struggle to find benefit in
flooding.
In recent weeks, parts of China have seen the heaviest rainfall since
records began, killing more than 400. Some 770 people have been killed
by flooding in South Asia, with hundreds of thousands displaced by flash
floods in southern Pakistan.
Thousands of flood victims in Britain last week were clearing chaos and
braced for more after floods in northern parts of the country,
triggering the country's biggest peacetime rescue effort.
European grain prices have risen to their highest level for around 10
years on fears that bad weather will hit this summer's crops, stoking
food price inflation.
Initially, a spring drought caused damage to wheat crops across Europe
and in key grower Ukraine. Since June, heavy rain in western Europe has
increased concerns over quality, which may leave bread-makers short of
high-grade grain later this year.
'SOMETHING IS CHANGING'
Floods killed more than 7,000 people in the world last year, a recent
study by reinsurance group Swiss Re study showed -- roughly a third of
all victims of natural catastrophes such as storms, earthquakes,
droughts and extreme cold or heat.
Statistics gathered by insurers -- who look at the cost of a catastrophe
to measure its severity, not the death toll -- also indicate climate is
changing.
"One single event can never be a sign of climate change," said Jens
Mehlhorn, who heads a team of flood experts at the Zurich-based company.
"But when you see a series of such events, and that's what it looks like
at the moment ... it may be about time to say something is changing," he
said.
This year's UK floods were an event statistical models say should happen
once only every 30 to 50 years, Mehlhorn says: the floods in 2000 were a
25-30 years event.
Two such events in only seven years are not statistically impossible,
but they are unlikely. Other countries have seen similar increases in
such disasters.
FLOATING HOUSES
While Britons ponder whether homes should still be being built on flood
plains, in the Netherlands -- where many live on land well below sea
level -- people in some cities are building floating houses and houses
on stilts.
The country is also upgrading a 30 km-long dyke at a cost of $1 billion
that protects much of the land.
If such protection is on offer, flood plains should not be a bad place
to live most of the time, said Colin Thorne, head of physical geography
at Britain's Nottingham University.
"Most of the world's great civilisations grew up along rivers -- people
are always going to live there. But you have to have plans for
flooding," he said.
Near the Oder, Klaus Mueller proved the point.
"That dyke won't burst again," said the 69-year old retiree, who fled
the rising water by walking his flock of sheep over a distance of more
than 12 km (7.5 miles) in 1997.
"It's at least 1.5 metres higher, if not two. And it's at least 10
metres wider," he said.
(Additional reporting by Peter Apps and David Evans in London)