ACUS11 KWNS 242302
SWOMCD
 SPC MCD 242302
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ/FAR SERN NY INCLUDING WRN LONG ISLAND/FAR SWRN
CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242302Z - 250000Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS
TRACKING NEWD ACROSS NJ EARLY THIS EVENING /THROUGH 00-01Z/.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM 40-50 KT PER REGIONAL WSR-88DS/ ALSO
SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ANY TORNADO WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING
NEWD ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS LIKELY AIDING IN RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY
EXTENDING FROM NRN DE TO NRN NJ.  DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE DEEP LAYER ASCENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ARE PROVING SUFFICIENT FOR
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT.  AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATED 50 KT SSWLY
FLOW AT 0.5 KM AGL.  THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE WIND
SPEEDS COMBINED WITH A 35 KT STORM MOTION SUGGESTS STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS NEWD ACROSS NJ.
THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NJ AND POSSIBLY WRN LONG
ISLAND...BUT LOCATIONS FARTHER E THROUGH N HAVE GREATER SURFACE
BASED INHIBITION...LIMITING STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE.

..PETERS.. 10/24/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON   39347534 39727527 40117502 40487479 40807460 41137434
            41217395 41117363 41087354 40777341 40477367 40277396
            39667413 39327465 39347534