Fun with stats and match data - Love Easter 2013, IFDA tournaments and beyond!

[David Hammond]

I've been working on a rating method based on past match results, and have some interesting data on the teams playing this weekend. Have a look at the spreadsheet I've attached, particularly the tab labeled 'Grid'.

As you can see from the ratings and the grid, all matches between Queens, Belfast, and Hammertime are a 50:50 toss up. Queen's are the favourite, but only by a nose. DUMP and Wreckin' Boyz are rated lower, but have significant chances to upset the order this weekend.

Please take these ratings with a pinch of salt, and bear in mind that they are only as good as the data I've been able to get from other TDs, and only reflects performance from the last match per team that I have data for. Full details should be in the spreadsheet, and I'm happy to answer questions on this. Actually, I'm hoping that the IFDA will get enthusiastic about using a system such as this, and make rankings available to all Irish teams. (Gents in CC, please give me your outstanding match data!) The thinking is that all teams enter a tournament with a view to win. This could add a secondary objective - to beat your ranking neighbors and improve your rating.

(This is formatted much better in the spreadsheet)

Expected Win Percentages
				Opposition
				1	2	3	4	5
				Queen's Universtiy Belfast	Hammer - time	Belfast	DUMP	Wreckin' Boyz
				1050	1048	1043	958	815
Your Team	1	Queen's Universtiy Belfast	1050		50%	51%	63%	79%
	2	Hammertime	1048	50%		51%	63%	79%
	3	Belfast	1043	49%	49%		62%	79%
	4	DUMP	958	37%	37%	38%		69%
	5	Wreckin' Boyz	815	21%	21%	21%	31%

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Regards,
David Hammond

[Chris Linter]

Wreckin Boyz are last?!??!

Dave, think you should go back to the drawing board with this! :)

[Richard Constable]

Dave.....
You needed a complex spreadsheet to know wreckin boys are last????????????

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Date: Fri, 5 Apr 2013 12:06:16 +0100
Subject: Re: [BU-Group:9800] Fun with stats and match data - Love Easter 2013, IFDA tournaments and beyond!
From: linter...@gmail.com
To: belfast...@googlegroups.com

Wreckin Boyz are last?!??!

Dave, think you should go back to the drawing board with this! :)

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[David Hammond]

If Wreckin' Boyz win any matches this weekend, they will pull up their score significantly, and pull down the team they beat significantly as well.

As a betting man, I would wager Wreckin' Boyz WILL get a win this weekend. As a player in one of the higher ranked teams, I have a suitable amount (21%) of background anxiety that it will be us. ;)

Dave

--
Regards,
David Hammond

[Richard Constable]

Dave,
When was the last time you bet on anything?????

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Date: Fri, 5 Apr 2013 12:29:33 +0100
Subject: Re: [BU-Group:9803] Fun with stats and match data - Love Easter 2013, IFDA tournaments and beyond!
From: davidham...@gmail.com
To: belfast...@googlegroups.com

[David Hammond]

Well, I just picked out the favourite for the Grand National in my office's sweep stake (suckers!). The Olympics was great for betting last year, but mostly I like betting on the Specials.

[Chris Linter]

If anyone wants to take bets with those odds for Wreckin Boyz to win I'm all ears!!

[David Hammond]

Tempted to open a book this weekend...

[Richard Constable]

A euro that wreckin boyz don't win!!!!!

2 euro that BU don't win!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ady young]

put your money where your stats are,

so pumped for the weekend

[David Hammond]

Alright, hypothetically, if I was to open a book, your odds would look like this today:

Outright winner:

Queen's  3/1

Hammertime  3/1

Belfast  7/2

DUMP  6/1

Wreckin' Boyz  15/1

Specials:

Wreckin' Boyz to win a match* during the weekend  3/2

*Excludes wins by default, matches that don't start on time, or matches that aren't played 7 v 7.

Max bet 1 Pound or 1 Euro. Bets not accepted until paid up. I'll reserve the right to refuse bets and adjust the odds throughout the weekend.

Dave.

[David Hammond]

Good morning!

Steve,

Can you bring your TD notes to training tonight please so I can update the stats, and give Wreckin' Boyz a wee boost up the IFDA table.

David,

One-off results definitely do count! That was part of the plan, to encourage more recorded friendlies. (If you can pass on the results, I can pop them in.) I hope that the map of Ultimate teams in Ireland and this ranking system can play a part in encouraging more friendlies.

Predictions for the weekend were mixed. I think  Belfast and Hammertime are quite accurately rated, both upper half to upper third standard in the whole of Ireland, and closely matched, hence the close ratings. Queen's rating is definitely not mature yet, based only on 1 weekend tournament, where they might have fielded a stronger than average team (17th to 18th November last year), so this is why they were perhaps a little on the high side.

Wreckin' Boyz and DUMP's ratings are largely based on match data from BU Summer Leagues. Note that the second last result I have in my data for Wreckin' Boyz was from 31/7/12 against DUMP where they lost to DUMP 11-5. If Wreckin' Boyz were surprised to be placed below DUMP going in to Love Easter, this sort of thing is the reason why.

The ratings are only as good as the data that goes in, so I've been trying my best to glean data where I can. This exercise was more of a proof of concept to show what could be done rather that 'here are the cast-iron ratings for these 5 teams'. It's not perfect, as Ultimate teams can change dramatically in standard from tournament to tournament, so rankings go out of date very quickly. However, the more times a team plays, and the greater the variety of opponents, assuming all results are accounted for, this should be as good a method as it gets.

After Love Easter, I anticipate that Belfast and Hammertime will increase rating just slightly, and won't shift much relative to each other, as there was a win each way, roughly cancelling each other out. I can't comment on the rest just yet I'm afraid, as I don't know how the other 3 teams got on on a match per match basis, although I'd say Queen's will take a small drop and Wreckin' Boyz should come the table, and possibly leave DIT with the dubious title of lowest ranked IFDA team. I'll publish again when the stats are ready.

Dave.

On 7 April 2013 17:16, David Rickard, IFDA President <pres...@irishultimate.com> wrote:

I definitely like the look of this, cheers for all the work David

By the way, do one-off results count? So matches like the recent Rebel-Pelt-Ranelagh bashes could affect rankings? Might give people more incentive to play individual challenge matches against their rivals in the between-competition weeks/months.

How did the predictions fare compared to the weekend's results?

Rickard

David Rickard
IFDA President
-------------------------------------------------
Mail: president@irishultimate.com
Web: www.irishultimate.com
Facebook: facebook.com/IFDAnews
Twitter: @ifdanews

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Regards,
David Hammond

[David Hammond]

Here is what the IFDA standings look like after Love Easter:

Belfast	07/04/2013	21	1126
Hammertime	07/04/2013	23	1097
Queen's Universtiy Belfast	07/04/2013	13	1021
Wreckin' Boyz	07/04/2013	22	841
DUMP	07/04/2013	23	832

As you can see in the full listing, there are a few distinct groupings. Rebel and Ranelagh are comfortably on top, Broc will probably drop off due to inactivity, and should be disregarded. Next is a large clump of about 9 teams centered around the 1100 mark. Any of these 9 teams could come out on top of the pile in a weekend tournament. I actually think Belfast is a little high now, and will take a small haircut in rating during it's next tournament outside of Belfast.

Any Queen's players reviewing the stats should note that a lot of the university teams' ratings are based on only one tournament (~7 games) so there should be a little settling to go before these can be relied upon.

The rest of the field is quite evenly spread, with Wreckin' Boyz (now off the bottom spot) and DUMP towards the bottom. In theory, they should have decent games against similarly rated teams such as DIT or Ranelagh Juniors.

Take a look at the spreadsheet. As Wreckin' Boyz expressed an interest in their standing, I also included a report on how their rating has moved over time, and what match results have been used. Please note that Love Easter scores are not true scores, but the result was known, and only this affects rating.

Dave.

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Regards,
David Hammond

[Ben McF]

You're a legend Dave!