> I farm in western MN and decided a couple of years ago that I wanted
> to invest in the Bakken as it was too close and too big a story not to
> have a piece of in some fashion.
> Little did I know that I would fall in love with not only the Bakken,
> but also the general oil and gas industry. I enjoy listening to
> conference calls and analyst days and so forth. This is not really a
> Bakken post but it kind of is.
> In mid 2008, I got in a flame war of sorts with somebody on the Yahoo
> NOG and BEXP boards over investing philosophy. I still think my
> opponent was working for a Soros type hedge fund to drive NOG down and
> BEXP up for reasons I won't go into here-this opinion has been
> reinforced with other things I learned since. But anyway-
> I said I was buying the Bakken "Story". I did not really care what the
> numbers were as in my opinion-it was too early for numbers. I wanted
> to buy the "Story" before the numbers people got enough information to
> feel comfortable. A big part of the story for me was that companies
> had a huge learning curve and they should be able to improve
> technologically in the future-ie you could not base a lot on the 2008
> numbers for things like reserves and so forth.
> The company that I most enjoy following and reading about is EOG-I
> bought them (for my Dad's IRA) for the Bakken but have followed their
> other holdings with great interest.
> They have publicly said for the last couple of years that they are
> switching their focus from gas to oil and that they are working on
> several horizontal oil plays in addition to the Bakken and the Barnett
> Combo. However, they would not publicly comment on those plays until
> they were ready as they want to lease acreage before any public
> announcements.
> I "bought" the EOG story-they are switching to more oil and they have
> secret plays maybe comparable to the Bakken, but I don't and can't
> know any of the numbers associated with those plays.
> Then along comes April 7th and the EOG analyst day-I encourage anyone
> here to listen to the Analyst day on the EOG website-it will be there
> until May 6th.
> EOG makes their big announcement about a couple of their secret plays
> and the Eagle Ford shale in south Texas is a doozy-plus they announce
> a couple of others as well. Also they give a lot of numbers related to
> the Eagle Ford and other plays as well-potential reserves and so
> forth, so the numbers people have something to go on and analysts are
> upgrading EOG and so forth.
> So it has been really fun to watch this-because I bought the EOG
> "Story" without any numbers-I got there ahead of the numbers people
> and was waiting for them and they are all over the Eagle Ford story
> and some other plays ie Spearfish in ND.
> Another fun thing to watch is the muted street reaction to another
> play that EOG announced that day which is the Niobrara in Colorado and
> Wyoming. Their hand got tipped early and they had to announce this
> before they wanted to. All they really said is they have a lot of
> acreage and that is too early for numbers. Wall Street has really
> ignored the Niobrara part of the announcement-In my opinion, they
> can't see the Niobrara story-because of no numbers and their focus on
> the Eagleford-So if good numbers come out on the Niobrara, once again-
> I am there ahead of the numbers people.
> The funniest thing of all tho-is the plethora of stories since April
> 7th from investment media that EOG is becoming an "oilier" company.
> Umm, yes-they have been saying they plan to do that for the last
> couple of years. So, I because I bought the EOG Story without any
> numbers-I got there ahead not only ahead of the "Numbers" people, but
> also ahead of the "Story" people-
> Because I have followed EOG so closely-I have lost a lot of respect
> for the Wall Street analyst types and the investment media-apparently
> they need information handed to them on a silver platter.
> Suddenly there are
> --
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