VTA BART SJX SEIR extent-of-fraud-scoping meetings: Aug 15 & 21
Richard Mlynarik
"VTA is hosting public scoping meetings on August 8, 14, 15, and 21.
Learn about the project changes that have occurred since the Final
Environmental Impact Report was certified in December 2004.
We need your input on the scope of the environmental studies as
we move into preparing a Supplemental Environmental Impact Report
for the project changes."
Scoping meeting invitation:
<https://www.communicationsmgr.com/projects/VTA/docs/VTANotice_Aug2%20(2).pdf>
[Note their incompetent but highly compensated contractor can't even
get the name of the web site straight...]
Remaining meetings:
Tuesday, August 15, 2006; 7:00 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.
Portuguese Community Center, Meeting Room
1115 E. Santa Clara Street, San Jose
This location is served by VTA Bus Lines 22 and 64.
Monday, August 21, 2006; 7:00 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.
San Jose City Hall, Committee Meeting Rooms W 118 & 119
200 E. Santa Clara Street, San Jose
Comment deadline extended to September 7.
Slideware:
<https://www.communicationsmgr.com/projects/VTA/docs/FinalScopingPresentation_Aug.8.2006.pdf>
My fave section has got the by the grotesquely fraudulent
ridership "projections" of slide 13:
Ridership Forecast
2030 forecast: 104,000 daily boardings
25% increase from 2025 forecast
Station 2025 projection 2030 projection
Montague/Capitol 19247 31067
Berryessa 6537 7931
Alum Rock 9115 10639
Civic Plaza/SJSU 6236 23439 [combined]
Market Street 17866
Diridon/Arena 9667 11209
Santa Clara 14919 19842
Total (6/7 stations) 83587 104127
To note: a 24.5% increased in "ridership" "projections" "obtained"
by extending the year out 5 years represents an incessant annualised
growth of 4.5%.
In contrast BART's year-to-year system-wide growths for the period
FY96 to FY05 including the dot-com bubble were (from BART FY2006
SRTP/CIP figure 7):
+4.8% +1.8% +5.0% +11.3% +6.9% -6.3% -5.0% +3.9% +1.4%
-- a nine-year average of 2.5%.
BART's five-year average system-wide growths for the periods
FY96-FY00 to FY00-FY05 were
+5.9% +3.6% +2.2% +1.9% +0.0%
In other words, VTA's "projections" require BART extension ridership
to grow year-to-year at approximately the rate only seen to the peak
of the dot-com bubble.
Also to compare (from BART FY2006 SRTP/CIP figure B-2):
Station 2005 actual
Montgomery 30233
Embarcadero 30012
Powell 22691
Civic Center 18645
12th Street 11783
Balboa Park 11734
24th Street 11119
Berkeley 10393
16th Street 8813
19th Street 7899
[...]
System total (43 stations) 310717
Compare and contrast and then try to come up with any
possible explanation other than "clear cut, unambiguous,
egregious, outright fraud perpetrated by agency officials,
contractors, elected officials and local trade groups"
which could explain the disparities between ground truth
and ridership "projections":
Montague/Capitol (31067)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.4098,-121.8909&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Montgomery (30233)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.7888,-122.4020&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Downtown SJ (23439)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.3364,-121.8901&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Powell (22691)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.7845,-122.4074&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Santa Clara (19842)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.3538,-121.9363&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Civic Center (18645)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.7803,-122.4128&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Diridon Memorial (11209)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.3308,-121.9011&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Berkeley (10393)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.8703,-122.2681&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Alum Rock (10639)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.3510,-121.8648&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Berkeley (10393)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.8703,-122.2681&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
Berryessa (7931)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.3694,-121.8749&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>
19th Street (7899)
<http://maps.google.com/?ll=37.8075,-122.2693&t=h&spn=0.003,0.003>