9-in-10 chance that the RBA will raise rates in December
Dr. Sir John Howard, AC, WSCMoF
The unemployment rate rose moderately in October, confirming expectations that
the economic recovery is on track.
The unemployment rate rose to 5.8 per cent in October from 5.7 per cent in
September, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Total employment,
though, rose by 24,500 - mostly part-time positions, the second month of job
gains in a row as more people enter the workforce.
The Australian dollar jumped more than half a US cent on the news to its highest
level since August 2008, hitting 93.67 US cents.
"Two consecutive months of job gains are very difficult to ignore and now
represents one less hurdle the RBA has to worry about before what we see as a
likely rise in December," said 4Cast Ltd economist Michael Turner.
A consensus of analysts had expected October's unemployment rate to rise to 5.8
per cent with the economy shedding 10,000 jobs, which would have returned it to
a level it had been at in three of the four past months.
''We can pretty much say with a greater degree of confidence that we’re at the
peak of the unemployment rate,'' said ICAP economist Adam Carr. ''Or extremely
close to it.''
''We’ll probably see the RBA and Government revise down their peak yet again
early next year towards the low 6 per cent level, if that.
''There are plenty of people in the RBA who will be urging a 50-basis-point hike
in December,'' he said, however he thinks a hike in February would be more
likely if we ''continue to see data of this nature''.
The employment reading comes the same month the RBA moved on interest rates,
raising them by a 25 basis points at the start of October, and repeating the
dose earlier this month. The increases were the first since March 2008, and
brought the interest rate to 3.5 per cent.
Even with today's rise, Australia's jobless rate has increased much less than
expected during the global economic slowdown, with many employers looking to
trim hours and cut overtime rather than sack staff.
In its most recent mid-year review, the Government lowered its expectation for
the unemployment rate to peak at 6.75 per cent in the 2009-10 financial year,
from 8.25 per cent in the May budget.
After the release of the data, investors were pricing in a nearly 9-in-10 chance
that the RBA would raise rates when its board next meets on December 1. In a
year's time, rates will rise to 5.5 per cent, equivalent to eight 25 basis point
rises, according to data from investment bank Credit Suisse.
Australia's economy, aided in large part by China's accelerating growth, has
passed through the financial crisis with much less of the slowdown seen in the
US, UK and the rest of Europe.
--
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ipvdBnU8F8
- KRudd at his finest.
"The Labour Party is corrupt beyond redemption!"
- Labour hasbeen Mark Latham in a moment of honest clarity.
"This is the recession we had to have!"
- Paul Keating explaining why he gave Australia another Labour recession.
"Silly old bugger!"
- Well known ACTU pisspot and sometime Labour prime minister Bob Hawke
responding to a pensioner who dared ask for more.
"By 1990, no child will live in poverty"
- Bob Hawke again, desperate to win another election.
"A billion trees ..."
- Borke, pissed as a newt again.
"Well may we say 'God save the Queen' because nothing will save the governor
general!"
- Egotistical shithead and pompous fuckwit E.G. Whitlam whining about his
appointee for Governor General John Kerr.
"SHUT THE FUCK UP YOU DUMB CUNT!"
- FlangesBum on learning the truth about Labour's economic capabilities.
"I don't care what you fuckers think!"
- KRudd the KRude at his finest again.
"We'll just change it all when we get in."
- Garrett the carrott
Oscar Trint
<""noujwas\"@yahoo.com
."> wrote in aus.general:
>
>''There are plenty of people in the RBA who will be urging a 50-basis-point hike
>in December,'' he said, however he thinks a hike in February would be more
>likely if we ''continue to see data of this nature''.
Whoopppee! Yes please... 1% even better.
Regards
Oscar
Tantum religio potuit suadere malorum - Lucretius
Dr. Sir John Howard, AC, WSCMoF
> On Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:37:47 +1100, "Dr. Sir John Howard, AC, WSCMoF "
> <""noujwas\"@yahoo.com
> ."> wrote in aus.general:
>
>> ''There are plenty of people in the RBA who will be urging a 50-basis-point hike
>> in December,'' he said, however he thinks a hike in February would be more
>> likely if we ''continue to see data of this nature''.
>
> Whoopppee! Yes please... 1% even better.
Seeing how excited that got you, you might want to know that Mastercard/Commbank
is now charging 20.24% p.a. for cash advances. The next time you're kissing
KRudd's arse, you can ask him why the discrepancy.
Oscar Trint
>
>Seeing how excited that got you, you might want to know that Mastercard/Commbank
>is now charging 20.24% p.a. for cash advances. The next time you're kissing
>KRudd's arse, you can ask him why the discrepancy.
Who cares? Anybody that pays that sort of interest rate needs their
bumps felt.
Dr. Sir John Howard, AC, WSCMoF
> On Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:17:33 +1100, "Dr. Sir John Howard, AC, WSCMoF "
> <""noujwas\"@yahoo.com
> ."> wrote in aus.general:
>
>> Seeing how excited that got you, you might want to know that Mastercard/Commbank
>> is now charging 20.24% p.a. for cash advances. The next time you're kissing
>> KRudd's arse, you can ask him why the discrepancy.
>
> Who cares? Anybody that pays that sort of interest rate needs their
> bumps felt.
Well, next election, go feel all the bumps on the labour voters.