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Odds, likelihood, probability

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Vinny Burgoo

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Nov 11, 2012, 2:56:07 PM11/11/12
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From the bottom of an article in the online edition of the Wall Street
Journal:

Corrections & Amplifications

[The original version got a name wrong.] Also, the likelihood of
Britain leaving the EU has risen. An earlier version of the
story said the odds of Britain leaving the EU had risen. An
earlier version of this correction incorrectly said the
likelihood of Britain leaving the euro had risen.

This confused the hell out of me until I decided to take it literally.
If it does what it says on the tin then what happened was, a finicky
editor thought that saying that the odds (colloquial: chance/s,
likelihood, probability) of Britain leaving the EU had risen might make
some readers think that the odds against its leaving had risen, so he
changed 'odds' to 'likelihood' then cocked up the explanation of what he
had done.

Such misunderstanding would be very unlikely in an article that begins
with this (even more colloquial) sentence:

Many Britons want out of the European Union.

That being so, I'm not wholly convinced that I've interpreted the errata
correctly. I can't find a cached or pirated version of the original
story or the first correction. Does anyone have a hard-copy copy of
Friday's Euro edition of the WSJ? Or a link to a cache? It's not
important. It's a puzzle, that's all, and I'd like to know if I've
solved it.

<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732407350457810540030326260
8.html>

http://preview.tinyurl.com/bdk47mx

--
VB

Eric Walker

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Nov 11, 2012, 9:14:33 PM11/11/12
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On Sun, 11 Nov 2012 19:56:07 +0000, Vinny Burgoo wrote:

> From the bottom of an article in the online edition of the Wall Street
> Journal:
>
> Corrections & Amplifications
>
> [The original version got a name wrong.] Also, the likelihood of
> Britain leaving the EU has risen. An earlier version of the
> story said the odds of Britain leaving the EU had risen. An
> earlier version of this correction incorrectly said the
> likelihood of Britain leaving the euro had risen.
>
> This confused the hell out of me . . . .

It is certainly not a model of clarity. But the odds are (ho ho) that by
"odds of" they meant "odds against"; I think many people use the phrase
that way.

If the odds against something are 4:1 and then change to 5:1, the
estimated likelihood of that event has diminished; so, if the "odds of"
rose, the likelihood would have diminished, which seems to be the
opposite of what in truth happened, hence the correction.


--
Cordially,
Eric Walker

Guy Barry

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Nov 12, 2012, 2:16:49 AM11/12/12
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"Vinny Burgoo" wrote in message
news:n3qqCHDX...@shropshire.plus.com...

> From the bottom of an article in the online edition of the Wall Street
> Journal:

> Corrections & Amplifications

> [The original version got a name wrong.] Also, the likelihood of
> Britain leaving the EU has risen.

(Horrible fused participle! Why not "the likelihood that Britain will leave
the EU"?)

> An earlier version of the
> story said the odds of Britain leaving the EU had risen. An
> earlier version of this correction incorrectly said the
> likelihood of Britain leaving the euro had risen.

(The likelihood that Britain will leave the euro is of course nil, since we
haven't joined it. No marks to whoever proposed that correction.)

> This confused the hell out of me until I decided to take it literally.
> If it does what it says on the tin then what happened was, a finicky
> editor thought that saying that the odds (colloquial: chance/s,
> likelihood, probability) of Britain leaving the EU had risen might make
> some readers think that the odds against its leaving had risen, so he
> changed 'odds' to 'likelihood' then cocked up the explanation of what he
> had done.

In my experience journalists very rarely use "odds" correctly. I wouldn't
normally follow "odds" by "of" at all; it should be either "odds on" (when
the event is more likely than not) or "odds against" (when the event is less
likely than not). So if the odds on a particular outcome are two to one,
then it has a two in three chance of happening; if the odds against are two
to one, then it has a one in three chance. If the odds on have increased,
it's more likely; if the odds against have increased it's less likely.
This use is preserved in phrases like "the odds-on favourite".

In practice "odds on" often seems to be used when "odds against" is meant.
Here's an example from the BNC:

"The odds on the Queen abdicating in Charles's favour before then have
lengthened — from 25-1 to 50-1."

That would suggest that it was a racing certainty, when in fact the meaning
is presumably that it's very unlikely. It's become so common in journalese
now that I've got used to it, but really I think the only unambiguous thing
to do is to avoid "odds" at all in such contexts.

--
Guy Barry


Peter Brooks

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Nov 12, 2012, 2:26:31 AM11/12/12
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On Nov 11, 9:58 pm, Vinny Burgoo <hlu...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:
>
>
>         Many Britons want out of the European Union.
>
This doesn't make sense either. Does it mean '..Britons want {things}
out of..' or '..Britons want {to be} out of..' or '..Britons want
{comes} out of..'.

What is missing?

Peter Brooks

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Nov 12, 2012, 2:27:41 AM11/12/12
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On Nov 12, 9:16 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
>
>
> "The odds on the Queen abdicating in Charles's favour before then have
> lengthened — from 25-1 to 50-1."
>
> That would suggest that it was a racing certainty, when in fact the meaning
> is presumably that it's very unlikely.
>
But 'racing certainties' aren't.

Guy Barry

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Nov 12, 2012, 3:39:33 AM11/12/12
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"Peter Brooks" wrote in message
news:18b44403-77a3-46a6...@k21g2000vbj.googlegroups.com...
It's a common colloquialism. "I want out" means "I want to be out" or "I
want to get out". I'm a bit surprised to see it in a newspaper headline,
though.

--
Guy Barry

Guy Barry

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Nov 12, 2012, 3:46:10 AM11/12/12
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"Peter Brooks" wrote in message
news:25b32730-c22f-4e8e...@d3g2000vbj.googlegroups.com...

> On Nov 12, 9:16 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
>
>
> > "The odds on the Queen abdicating in Charles's favour before then have
> > lengthened � from 25-1 to 50-1."
>
> > That would suggest that it was a racing certainty, when in fact the
> > meaning
> > is presumably that it's very unlikely.
>
> But 'racing certainties' aren't.

A "racing certainty" (as far as I'm concerned) is something that's regarded
as certain to happen, even when there's a theoretical possibility that it
might not. If the odds *on* a particular event were 50-1, the bookmakers
would have stopped taking bets on it because it would be presumed certain to
happen (and no one would place a bet at such short odds because betting tax
would eradicate their winnings).

When I heard that Fox News had called Ohio for Obama, it was a racing
certainty that he'd won the election. It was theoretically possible that
Romney had in fact won Ohio and would win all the other states needed for a
victory, but it was so unlikely that the possibility could be discounted.

--
Guy Barry

Peter Brooks

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Nov 12, 2012, 3:59:43 AM11/12/12
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On Nov 12, 10:46 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
> "Peter Brooks"  wrote in message
>
> news:25b32730-c22f-4e8e...@d3g2000vbj.googlegroups.com...
>
> > On Nov 12, 9:16 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
>
> > > "The odds on the Queen abdicating in Charles's favour before then have
> > > lengthened from 25-1 to 50-1."
>
> > > That would suggest that it was a racing certainty, when in fact the
> > > meaning
> > > is presumably that it's very unlikely.
>
> > But 'racing certainties' aren't.
>
> A "racing certainty" (as far as I'm concerned) is something that's regarded
> as certain to happen, even when there's a theoretical possibility that it
> might not.
>
I understand. My impression is that I've heard it used ironically more
often than not. Bertie Wooster, for example, would be the sort of
bloke that I'd expect to find had lost his shirt, several times, on
'racing certainties' passed to him by tipsters of gold-plated honesty.

Peter Brooks

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Nov 12, 2012, 4:02:13 AM11/12/12
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Oh. That's odd. So, Oates could have said, instead of, 'I am just
going outside and may be some time', 'I want out'. I'm not sure that
we'd have remembered that in the same way.

It sounds more like a translation of what a dog seems to be saying as
he scratches the door - not a coherent human.

Guy Barry

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Nov 12, 2012, 4:24:47 AM11/12/12
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"Peter Brooks" wrote in message
news:725442a3-3d8d-4856...@c16g2000yqe.googlegroups.com...

> On Nov 12, 10:46 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

> > A "racing certainty" (as far as I'm concerned) is something that's
> > regarded
> > as certain to happen, even when there's a theoretical possibility that
> > it
> > might not.
>
> I understand. My impression is that I've heard it used ironically more
> often than not.

Really? In the metaphorical sense? I'm trying to find examples on the Web,
but it's difficult to find any uses that aren't connected with horse racing
in one way or another. Here's the first hit that isn't a straight
definition:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/sport/football/criticism-a-racing-certainty-when-in-the-rangers-saddle.18940966

"Criticism a racing certainty when in the Rangers saddle

It's not often a football manager is prepared to admit he doesn't know what
he's doing.
A few have had it chanted at them over the years, but yesterday Alex McLeish
was willing to accept that the description was literally true. McLeish had
strayed into the world of horseracing for the day having been invited to
help make the draw for the Ayr Gold Cup."

Although it's an obvious pun, I don't think the expression is being used
ironically in any way. The article was saying that McLeish was bound to
attract criticism, not that he was very unlikely to.

> Bertie Wooster, for example, would be the sort of
> bloke that I'd expect to find had lost his shirt, several times, on
> 'racing certainties' passed to him by tipsters of gold-plated honesty.

Was that meant to be ironic, though, or just an example of Wooster's
gullibility? Wooster clearly believed that they were racing certainties; he
wasn't being ironic, or else he wouldn't have bet on them.

--
Guy Barry

Peter Brooks

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Nov 12, 2012, 5:15:37 AM11/12/12
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On Nov 12, 11:24 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
> "Peter Brooks"  wrote in message
>
> news:725442a3-3d8d-4856...@c16g2000yqe.googlegroups.com...
>
> > On Nov 12, 10:46 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
> > > A "racing certainty" (as far as I'm concerned) is something that's
> > > regarded
> > > as certain to happen, even when there's a theoretical possibility that
> > > it
> > > might not.
>
> > I understand. My impression is that I've heard it used ironically more
> > often than not.
>
> Really?  In the metaphorical sense?  I'm trying to find examples on the Web,
> but it's difficult to find any uses that aren't connected with horse racing
> in one way or another.  Here's the first hit that isn't a straight
> definition:
>
> http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/sport/football/criticism-a-racin...
>
> "Criticism a racing certainty when in the Rangers saddle
>
> It's not often a football manager is prepared to admit he doesn't know what
> he's doing.
> A few have had it chanted at them over the years, but yesterday Alex McLeish
> was willing to accept that the description was literally true. McLeish had
> strayed into the world of horseracing for the day having been invited to
> help make the draw for the Ayr Gold Cup."
>
> Although it's an obvious pun, I don't think the expression is being used
> ironically in any way.  The article was saying that McLeish was bound to
> attract criticism, not that he was very unlikely to.
>
> > Bertie Wooster, for example, would be the sort of
> > bloke that I'd expect to find had lost his shirt, several times, on
> > 'racing certainties' passed to him by tipsters of gold-plated honesty.
>
> Was that meant to be ironic, though, or just an example of Wooster's
> gullibility?  Wooster clearly believed that they were racing certainties; he
> wasn't being ironic, or else he wouldn't have bet on them.
>
Indeed. I think that it's the fact that what are claimed to be 'racing
certainties' usually aren't that makes me consider the phrase itself
as describing something suspect. I don't get involved in horse racing
much, and don't read the sports of racing parts of newspapers, so I'm
not exposed to any other use of the term.

I'd treat the word 'certainty' with suspicion too, but that's another
point.

Guy Barry

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Nov 12, 2012, 5:24:20 AM11/12/12
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"Peter Brooks" wrote in message
news:1b326535-6786-45c6...@a6g2000vbl.googlegroups.com...
That's certainly not how I read it. Here's a usage example taken from
http://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/racing-certainty :

"But I've seen and heard enough to know his right to the international job
is a racing certainty, a foregone conclusion." (Moynihan, John: Kevin
Keegan - Black and White)

I don't think there's any suggestion of anything suspect there. Do you?

> I don't get involved in horse racing
> much, and don't read the sports of racing parts of newspapers, so I'm
> not exposed to any other use of the term.

Nor do I - I'm only generally aware of the metaphorical use.

--
Guy Barry

Peter Brooks

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Nov 12, 2012, 5:51:18 AM11/12/12
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On Nov 12, 12:24 pm, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
> "Peter Brooks"  wrote in message
>
> news:1b326535-6786-45c6...@a6g2000vbl.googlegroups.com...
>
> > On Nov 12, 11:24 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
> > > Was that meant to be ironic, though, or just an example of Wooster's
> > > gullibility?  Wooster clearly believed that they were racing
> > > certainties; he
> > > wasn't being ironic, or else he wouldn't have bet on them.
>
> > Indeed. I think that it's the fact that what are claimed to be 'racing
> > certainties' usually aren't that makes me consider the phrase itself
> > as describing something suspect.
>
> That's certainly not how I read it.  Here's a usage example taken fromhttp://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/racing-certainty:
>
> "But I've seen and heard enough to know his right to the international job
> is a racing certainty, a foregone conclusion."  (Moynihan, John: Kevin
> Keegan - Black and White)
>
> I don't think there's any suggestion of anything suspect there.  Do you?
>
No, but I think it noteworthy that they seek to explain the phrase by
adding 'a foregone conclusion' - if a 'racing certainty' was a
certainly a certainty as you're suggesting, would there be a need to
add the qualifying explanation?
>
> > I don't get involved in horse racing
> > much, and don't read the sports of racing parts of newspapers, so I'm
> > not exposed to any other use of the term.
>
> Nor do I - I'm only generally aware of the metaphorical use.
>
For clarification, I've looked up 'racing certainty' and 'lost the
race'. The term 'racing certainty' seems often to be qualified - as in
'Small Settlers looks a racing certainty', 'he will be considered a
racing certainty but this must surely be as close as it ever gets'.

Looking up 'Ladbrokes' and 'racing certainty' gives an interesting
little article, which appears to suggest that, as I said, a racing
certainty isn't certain - Ladbokes have given odds of 1-20. Since the
odds are given, it must mean that it isn't actually certain:

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/heathrow-queues-when-the-olympics-begin-place-your-bets-241881

Eric Walker

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Nov 12, 2012, 6:16:34 AM11/12/12
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On Mon, 12 Nov 2012 01:02:13 -0800, Peter Brooks wrote:

[...]

> Oh. That's odd. So, Oates could have said, instead of, 'I am just going
> outside and may be some time', 'I want out'. I'm not sure that we'd have
> remembered that in the same way.

It doesn't equate: "I want out" means I want to no longer be involved
with whatever it is that is the topic. "I want out of this deal," or
contract, or mess, or something of that sort--a situation, not a physical
place.


> It sounds more like a translation of what a dog seems to be saying as he
> scratches the door - not a coherent human.

It reminds one of that famous (or infamous) remark by the movie executive
Samuel Goldwyn: "Include me out."


--
Cordially,
Eric Walker

Guy Barry

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Nov 12, 2012, 7:29:07 AM11/12/12
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"Peter Brooks" wrote in message
news:7cbaa8fc-fad8-40e9...@3g2000yqn.googlegroups.com...

> On Nov 12, 12:24 pm, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:

> > "But I've seen and heard enough to know his right to the international
> > job
> > is a racing certainty, a foregone conclusion." (Moynihan, John: Kevin
> > Keegan - Black and White)
>
> > I don't think there's any suggestion of anything suspect there. Do you?
>
> No, but I think it noteworthy that they seek to explain the phrase by
> adding 'a foregone conclusion' - if a 'racing certainty' was a
> certainly a certainty as you're suggesting, would there be a need to
> add the qualifying explanation?

I assume that that example was chosen because it explained the expression.
They give a couple of other examples, but without any context it's less
clear what's meant:

"That means Mr King is not the racing certainty that he perhaps should be in
the battle to take the Threadneedle Street helm."
"Thatched barn gamble was racing certainty"

In the first example it looks as though the writer was expecting Mr King to
be a shoo-in, but he turned out not to be. I'm not sure about the second.

> For clarification, I've looked up 'racing certainty' and 'lost the
> race'. The term 'racing certainty' seems often to be qualified - as in
> 'Small Settlers looks a racing certainty', 'he will be considered a
> racing certainty but this must surely be as close as it ever gets'.

> Looking up 'Ladbrokes' and 'racing certainty' gives an interesting
> little article, which appears to suggest that, as I said, a racing
> certainty isn't certain - Ladbokes have given odds of 1-20. Since the
> odds are given, it must mean that it isn't actually certain:

> http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/heathrow-queues-when-the-olympics-begin-place-your-bets-241881

It isn't actually certain. What I understand "racing certainty" to mean in
the literal sense is that the odds are so short that bookmakers are no
longer taking bets. Until a few years ago there used to be a 9% tax on
gambling wins, so if the odds were shorter than 1-10 (i.e. 10-1 on), there
was no point in placing a bet because you'd end up paying more in tax than
you won. (If you placed an £11 bet at 1-11, then your total winnings would
be £12, which would be taxed down to £10.92.) This was abolished by the
last government, though, and now it seems that bookmakers are offering odds
as short as 1-20, which would suggest that there's technically no such thing
as a "racing certainty" any more. I don't gamble - can anyone explain this
better?

--
Guy Barry

Dr Nick

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Nov 12, 2012, 4:18:29 PM11/12/12
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It's one I've always taken as American (but that might be the usual
phenomenon of attributing an English usage you don't like to the other
side of the pond).

James Hogg

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Nov 12, 2012, 5:02:24 PM11/12/12
to
The usage was taken across the pond by emigrants from Scotland and Ulster.

--
James

Iain Archer

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Nov 16, 2012, 12:57:40 PM11/16/12
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Peter Brooks wrote on Mon, 12 Nov 2012
>On Nov 12, 10:39 am, "Guy Barry" <guy.ba...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
>> "Peter Brooks"  wrote in message
>>
>> news:18b44403-77a3-46a6...@k21g2000vbj.googlegroups.com...
>>
>> > On Nov 11, 9:58 pm, Vinny Burgoo <hlu...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:
>>
>> > >         Many Britons want out of the European Union.
>>
>> > This doesn't make sense either. Does it mean '..Britons want {things}
>> > out of..' or '..Britons want {to be} out of..' or '..Britons want
>> > {comes} out of..'.
>>
>> It's a common colloquialism.  "I want out" means "I want to be out" or "I
>> want to get out".  I'm a bit surprised to see it in a newspaper headline,
>> though.
>>
>Oh. That's odd. So, Oates could have said, instead of, 'I am just
>going outside and may be some time', 'I want out'. I'm not sure that
>we'd have remembered that in the same way.
>
"I'm outta here. Don't hold your breath."
--
Iain Archer

Mike L

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Nov 16, 2012, 5:39:05 PM11/16/12
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On Fri, 16 Nov 2012 17:57:40 +0000, Iain Archer <m...@privacy.net>
wrote:
"Pfwoahh! God, Oates! Get outside!"

A joint British-Soviet climbing expedition experienced serious
difficulties when the refined Russians objected to the Brits' more
animal approach to farting in the tents.

--
Mike.
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