Billboard Chart Beat Chat - AI related questions
Bigolhomo
The latest news in the world of Billboard's definitive sales and
airplay charts.
June 30, 2006, 12:30 PM ET
Fred Bronson
IDOL SALES
Hi Fred,
I was wondering about the phenomenal sales of the "American Idol"
finalists' CD singles and how they compare to the sales of the big
hits of years ago, back when physical singles were the norm. Do you
think the numbers Taylor Hicks earned in his first week, with huge
sales and practically no airplay, would have guaranteed him the No. 1
spot on the Hot 100 back in the '60s, '70s or '80s? Or was selling
180,000 singles pretty typical for a big hit back then, in which case
the lack of airplay would have limited his chart success?
Also, do you have any idea why the "American Idol" finalists always
sell so many physical singles, as opposed to digital downloads? Do you
think if other hit songs like "Hips Don't Lie" were available as
physical singles they would put up similarly huge numbers? Or is this
just another unexplainable aspect of the "American Idol" phenomenon.
Thanks for all the great insight.
Chuck Schilken
Dear Chuck,
I suspect the reason that the "American Idol" finalists sell so many
physical singles is that for a majority of the people buying these
records, they are the only singles they purchase during the year.
Since they are not regular consumers of music, they are probably not
iTunes subscribers, or customers of any other download service.
There are a lot of new technologies that we take for granted that many
Americans do not have yet. A majority of American homes do not have
TiVo or any DVR yet, or satellite television. I would guess that a
greater percentage of Chart Beat readers have iPods, compared to
viewers of "American Idol."
As for how many singles were sold in a typical week in the '60s, '70s
or '80s, I turned to experts for the answer, and they reminded me that
we did not have Nielsen SoundScan before 1991, so we did not have
actual weekly sales figures. No one could tell you with any accuracy
how many singles were sold each week. About 50-100 singles each year
were certified gold in the '80s, so that means 500,000 units shipped
to stores (not per week, but over the life of a single). Based on that
information, selling 180,000 copies of a single in a seven-day period
in the '80s would have been as impressive as it is today.
Our next reader also has a question related to "American Idol." Read
on.
IDOL LONGEVITY
Hi Fred,
"American Idol" winner Taylor Hicks dropped from the top spot on the
Hot 100 after one week. "American Idol" has produced five No. 1 hits
from each of its five seasons, but none of these have stayed on top
longer than two weeks. Also, none of the previous four Idol
contestants have ever returned to the No. 1 spot, which means, if
history is any indication, that Taylor Hicks' chances of having a
second No. 1 hit on the Hot 100 aren't good.
I believe there may be a couple of reasons for this trend. First, the
Fox network only airs each episode once, and to my knowledge, the
older episodes aren't in syndication. I think the contestants in
previous shows might get a jump in sales if there was an opportunity
to see the entire seasons again, including the auditions. Second, the
show creates the first song for each of the finalists.
I'd like to know your opinion of the quality of these songs, but
personally, I think the success of the five No. 1 hits, "A Moment Like
This," "This Is the Night," "I Believe," "Inside Your Heaven" and "Do
I Make You Proud" are due to the performers and not the songs. I
wonder if these songs would be chosen as debut singles if the
contestants had more freedom or a wider selection.
I enjoy the show, but I am starting to feel like the finalists need to
promote themselves heavily during the off-season, because once a new
season begins, the viewers' short-term memories kick in. I'm not
saying the previous contestants aren't successful, but wouldn't you
expect more No. 1 singles, especially considering that each season
gives an automatic No. 1?
Thanks for your column!
Pete Pait
Alpharetta, Ga.
Dear Pete,
We're going to have a chance to test your theory about how previous
contestants would fare when it comes to record sales if their seasons
could be seen again. "American Idol" will finally be going into
syndication this fall, starting with season one.
The songs performed during the annual finales sell so well because
they are like souvenirs of the season. When you have 30 to 40 million
people watching those finales, it's not surprising that a single could
sell anywhere from 100,000 to 300,000 copies during the first week of
release.
That's a very small percentage of viewers buying singles, but the
numbers of singles sold are still large enough to guarantee high chart
placings.
As for the quality of the songs, that has varied over the years. There
is definitely a formula for the finale song, but within that formula
you can have a great song or a mediocre song. As much as I like Taylor
Hicks and Katharine McPhee, I think their finale songs are lacking
compared to songs selected for previous top two-finalists. I wish they
had been given better material.
And when it comes to the Idols having a follow-up No. 1 hit, I think
Kelly Clarkson is likely to achieve this with singles from her third
album. Had current chart policies been in effect when "Since U Been
Gone" and "Behind These Hazel Eyes" were released, they could easily
have been No. 1 hits. Now that sales are having such a strong impact
on the Hot 100, Clay Aiken's fans might buy enough copies of the first
single from his next album to catapult it to No. 1. You know they're
going to give it their best effort!
GEORGE, CONWAY AND MADONNA
Fred,
I know Madonna has 36 No. 1s on the Hot Dance Club Play chart but
which artists have more No. 1s on any singles chart and how does she
compare to them?
Do you think she will surpass them? I think George Strait and Conway
Twitty have 40 or 41 No. 1s on the Hot Country Songs chart.
Thank you,
Alva Robinson
Istanbul, Turkey
alva2...@yahoo.com
Dear Alva,
See this week's Chart Beat for details of George Strait's brand-new
single, which could become his 41st No. 1 on Hot Country Songs. Right
now, Strait is tied with Conway Twitty at 40, the all-time record for
most No. 1 singles.
(WHAT A) DIGITAL WORLD
Fred:
I am really enjoying the fast turnover at No. 1 [on the Hot 100] and
the massive moves of late on the chart due to digital downloads. It
reminds me of the days when 15 to 25 songs reaching the summit [during
a calendar year] was the norm. It has been reported recently that on
the overall airplay monitor, the top three or four songs were
separated by historic razor thin margins as measured by Nielsen
Broadcast Data Systems since 1991.
For too long, there was usually one, maybe two songs that would have
massive airplay over the nearest competitors. That resulted in fewer
No. 1s with those that did reach the summit remaining there for lack
of competition. With the influence of this "consumer power at the
click of a mouse" reflected on the charts, radio stations have been
forced to take notice and lessen the influence of the usual
consultants and focus group surveys.
They are not only competing with other stations in their respective
markets, but they now have to contend with other music delivery media
gaining popularity such as portable players and PCs at home and in the
office. Radio may not be staying on a record as long or playing songs
as frequently and are adding these sales-driven songs into their
rotations in greater numbers.
Recently, a number of songs' airplay support seemed to follow their
growing or steady download popularity. Daniel Powter's "Bad Day," Fort
Minor's "Where'd You Go," the Fray's "Over My Head," Nick Lachey's
"What's Left of Me" and Gnarls Barkley's "Crazy" are a few that come
to mind. Funny thing is, they all represent musical genres that have
struggled on the charts these past five or so years.
Am I off base in my speculative theory, or have musical tastes really
changed this dramatically, this rapidly?
Kevin Martin
Brooklyn, N.Y.
Dear Kevin,
What's changed so dramatically is the influence of sales on the
charts. As someone once said, we live in interesting times. Many Chart
Beat readers are too young to recall some of the sea changes that
dramatically affected the Hot 100, such as the rise of the Beatles in
1964 and all of the other British bands that followed in their wake,
supplanting many American artists who never had a hit single again.
We're experiencing a sea change right now.
I know it's hard to believe, but I've said it many times: radio
stations really do want to play the songs they believe are the most
popular, because for them the bottom line is getting higher ratings,
which help determine rates they can charge advertisers. That's why
they are paying closer attention to songs that are selling thousands
of digital downloads every week.
It's become a much more immediate world as well, with results of
digital sales being made public immediately. One of the widgets on my
computer dashboard is a box showing the top 10 selling singles on
iTunes in the United States. You don't have to wait a week to know
what's selling well right now, at least in the iTunes universe.
LOVE HER TWO TIMES
Fred,
I can't help but be excited to see that the No. 1 singles in the
United States and the United Kingdom this week are by the same artist
- -Nelly Furtado -- but are different tracks ("Promiscuous" in the
United States and "Maneater" in the United Kingdom).
It isn't that rare for an artist to top both charts in the same week
with the same song (I think I counted seven such instances during the
'00s). But for an artist to be No. 1 simultaneously in both countries
with different tracks is pretty rare. The last such instance I found
was nine years ago, in the week ending March 15, 1997, when the Spice
Girls were No. 1 in the United States with "Wannabe" and No. 1 in the
United Kingdom with "Mama" / "Who Do You Think You Are." (Some may
argue Elton John did it in December 1997 with "Candle in the Wind
1997" in the United States and as one of the 29 artists featured on
the U.K. No. 1 "Perfect Day").
The last time before that? Strangely, another nine years prior, when
during the week ending Feb. 6, 1988 (and the week after), Tiffany
topped The Billboard Hot 100 with "Could've Been" and the U.K. singles
chart with "I Think We're Alone Now."
Just thought I'd share. Thanks,
Andrew Huddleston
Washington, D.C.
Dear Andrew,
It is rare, and thanks for finding examples. One thing to remember
when comparing the U.S. and U.K. singles charts is that the Hot 100 is
dated with the week ending date, while the date on the British singles
chart is the first day of the week.
That's why you'll read in this week's Chart Beat that the most recent
instance of an artist being No. 1 in both countries with different
songs happened in July 2005, when Usher's "Confessions Part II" was
No. 1 in America while his "Burn" topped the U.K. chart.
IF AT FIRST YOU CAN'T THINK OF THE ANSWER, TRY AGAIN
Hi Fred,
I've been reading Billboard since 1981, and your columns for many
years, both in print and online. Heck, I even remember your weekly
trivia questions you asked as part of your online column.
In the late 1990s, many of us chart fans (including you, I believe)
did not think an airplay-only song would go to No. 1 on the Hot 100.
Then, one did. My questions are: What was the first week Billboard's
Hot 100 chart included non-singles? And what was the first
airplay-only song to hit No. 1? For some reason, if memory serves, it
was a female solo artist.
Thanks,
Marty LeGere
Magna, Utah
Dear Marty,
The change you're referring to took place the week of Dec. 5, 1998.
Before then, there had to be a commercial single available for sale
before a title could appear on the Hot 100. As record companies
stopped releasing commercial singles and some of the most popular
songs of the day were radio-only hits (such as No Doubt's "Don't
Speak" and the Cardigans' "Lovefool"), a change of policy was
required. The Hot 100 became a "song" chart as opposed to a "singles"
chart, with album tracks allowed to enter the survey if they had
enough airplay points.
What I recall saying at the time is that while it would be difficult
to achieve, it was inevitable that we would eventually have a song
reach No. 1 based solely on airplay.
That did indeed happen, the week of June 15, 2000 when "Try Again" by
Aaliyah spent one week in pole position. Later, a 12-inch vinyl single
was released, and then a 7-inch vinyl single, but there was no single
configuration available when the song went to No. 1.
PROMISCUITY PAYS OFF
Dear Fred,
It's great to see "Promiscuous" by Nelly Furtado featuring Timbaland
advance to No. 1 on the Hot 100. Timbaland has been one of my favorite
producers of the past decade and I think another appearance at the top
of the chart as a producer is overdue. If my memory serves correctly,
this is only his second No. 1 single, following Aaliyah's "Try Again"
in 2000. Could you tell me if I'm forgetting any others please?
This reminds me of how unfortunate it was that commercial singles were
not released for popular songs in the late '90s. Otherwise, there's a
good chance that another Timbaland production, "Are You That
Somebody?" by Aaliyah, could have spent some time at the top. I
remember reading that the song would have only needed to sell a
minimal number of singles to have enough points to top the chart had
it been eligible.
On the Billboard Hot R&B/Hip Hop Songs chart, I believe Timbaland has
produced five No. 1 singles:
"If Your Girl Only Knew," Aaliyah
"Pony," Ginuwine
"Hot Boyz," Missy Elliott
"Oops (Oh My)," Tweet
"Work It," Missy Elliott
Again, record label decisions to withhold commercial releases likely
prevented him from reaching the top with other popular songs of the
time, notably Aaliyah's "One In a Million" and "Are You That
Somebody?" and SWV's "Can We." (The latter of which was released as a
limited edition maxi-single months after peaking in airplay).
Hopefully the Timbaland/Nelly Furtado alliance will pave the way for
another big wave of chart success!
Thanks,
Alex Donatoni
New Jersey
Dear Alex,
You're correct, Timbaland's first No. 1 on the Hot 100 as a producer
was Aaliyah's "Try Again." Who knew that song would be the subject of
two e-mails this week?
"Promiscuous" is his second No. 1 as a producer and first as an
artist. You've also got the right number of No. 1 hits on Hot
R&B/Hip-Hop Songs. The five songs you named were Timbaland's
chart-toppers on that list.
With "Maneater" at No. 1 in the United Kingdom, there's a good chance
that song will also reach the summit of the Hot 100 and give Nelly
Furtado and Timbaland another No. 1 hit.
THIS MAY BE A CASE OF YOU HAD TO BE THERE...
Fred,
I was driving with my partner last weekend and we were discussing
songs on the Hot 100 and digital downloads. I was trying to say
"digital single" but it kind of contracted itself and came out
"dingle." We must've laughed for a good five minutes. It wasn't really
THAT funny, but the moment struck us. Perhaps we have stumbled upon a
new name for the current trend in singles. Anyway, thought you might
get a chuckle out of it.
Matt Schuler
Ames, Iowa
Dear Matt,
I did, thanks. Inspired by your new word, we could rename B-sides
after that great crooner, Bing Crosby, so you can purchase the A-side
or the Bingle.
WHERE HAVE ALL THE RUNNERS-UP GONE?
The year 2006 has so far featured a much greater turnover at the top
of the Hot 100 than recent years. But one result of this has been a
stunning lack of near misses, a.k.a. No. 2 hits. As far as I can tell,
no song has peaked at No. 2 since Nickelback stalled there back in
October 2005 with "Photograph." And with the ascension of
"Promiscuous" by Nelly Furtado featuring Timbaland into the top spot
this week, 2006 is the first year of the rock era to be more than half
over without a single No. 2 hit.
"Promiscuous" had peaked at No. 2 a couple of weeks ago, and then took
a step back last week while "American Idol" champ Taylor Hicks debuted
at No. 1. But now Nelly Furtado and Timbaland rebound to each claim
their first No. 1 hit, so once again we are left waiting for the first
No. 2 hit of 2006. The latest I could find for the first No. 2 hit of
a calendar year previously was 1994, when Madonna's "I'll Remember"
reached the runner-up spot the week of May 28, and couldn't get over
the hump to No. 1, due to All 4 One's "I Swear," which was in the
second week of an 11-week run at No. 1.
Mark C. Jones
Germantown, Md.
mcj....@verizon.net
Dear Mark,
Great observation. There have indeed been no No. 2 hits in 2006; all
of the songs that have moved into the runner-up slot this year have
gone on to the top spot.
Now we'll all be keeping an eye to see which is the first song to peak
in the runner-up position in 2006, or if any song stops in second
place.
'BLUE,' BUY? OOH!
I was previously told that "Blue" by Diana Ross would not be eligible
to chart on any Billboard chart other than Top Comprehensive Albums
until
it went into general release on June 20. However, the title debuted at
No. 5 on Top Jazz Albums for the week ending July 1.
If I am not mistaken, all charts in the issue dated July 1 were based
on sales information for the week preceding "Blue's" general release
on June 20. I am thoroughly confused. Can you tell me how this
happened in light of the fact I was recently informed by Billboard
that a title sold exclusively at [one retailer] is eligible to chart
only on Top Comprehensive Albums?
Regards,
Timmy Lopez-Fitzgerald
Worcester, Mass.
Dear Timmy,
It's true, as explained last week in the reply to your letter, an
album that is available exclusively at one retailer is not eligible
for The Billboard 200 or other genre album charts.
Now that Diana Ross' "Blue" is available for sale everywhere, it is
eligible to chart. If you want the lowdown on how "Blue" fared, check
out this week's Chart Beat.
So, how did "Blue" debut last week at No. 5 on Top Jazz Albums? If
you've already read Chart Beat, you'll know it was due to "street-date
violations." That means some retailers started selling "Blue" before
its official June 20 release date, and enough copies were sold at
stores that are part of the Top Jazz Albums panel to allow an early
debut.
I don't know which retailers sold copies before the release date, but
I'm not surprised they did. Retailers do not like it when albums are
sold exclusively at other retail accounts, as "Blue" was available for
five weeks at Starbucks before it could be sold elsewhere.
ADDING UP THE CHART-TOPPERS
In last week's Chart Beat you said there have been 11 chart-toppers
[in 2006], and then this week you say "Promiscuous" is the 12th song
to assume [pole position] in 2006. That latter statement is correct,
but weren't there 12 chart toppers as of last week (and now 13)?
"Don't Forget About Us" was No. 1 in 2006, even if it didn't assume
the position in 2006. To act like it wasn't No. 1 this year would
basically mean there was no chart for the first week of 2006.
Thanks,
Jason Englisbe
Dear Jason,
In the 14 years that I've been writing Chart Beat, I've always counted
the same way. The final No. 1 song of a calendar year belongs to the
year in which it peaked.
That's why I refer to songs that "assumed pole position" or "advanced
to No. 1" in a calendar year. Once in a while I forget to qualify the
statement, so I understand why you would question the count. I'll be
more careful in the future to include the qualification so there is no
doubt.
--
Bigolhomo
Judy Haffner
L-O-N-G read, Bigolhomo, but VERY informative...can always count on your
to get your homework in on time! :o)
Judy