Ten Times More Hurricane Surges in Future, New Research Predicts

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Ten Times More Hurricane Surges in Future, New Research Predicts

Science Daily

March 18, 2013 - By examining the frequency of extreme
storm surges in the past, previous research has shown
that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane
surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse
will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many
extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina,
which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a
result of global warming? New research from the Niels
Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase
in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celsius
warmer.

Climate model

The results are published in the scientific journal,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.

Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with
strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically
form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East
Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to
calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future
with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed
various models. One is based on the regional sea
temperatures, while another is based on differences
between the regional sea temperatures and the average
temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is
considerable disagreement among researchers about which
is best.

New model for predicting cyclones

"Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have
chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and
combine them into a single model," explains climate
scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at
the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

He takes into account the individual statistical models
and weights them according to how good they are at
explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that
the model reflects the known physical relationships, for
example, how the El Ni�o phenomenon affects the formation
of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration
with colleagues from China and England.

The statistical models are used to predict the number of
hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much
worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many
'Katrinas' will there be per decade?

Since 1923, there has been a 'Katrina' magnitude storm
surge every 20 years.

10 times as many 'Katrinas'

"We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate
corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme
storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina.
With the global warming we have had during the 20th
century, we have already crossed the threshold where more
than half of all 'Katrinas' are due to global warming,"
explains Aslak Grinsted.

"If the temperature rises an additional degree, the
frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global
climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about
10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that
there will be a 'Katrina' magnitude storm surge every
other year," says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that
in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the
sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result,
the storm surges will become worse and potentially more
destructive.

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Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by
University of Copenhagen, via EurekAlert!, a service of
AAAS. http://www.ku.dk/

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For
further information, please contact the source cited
above.

More at:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130318151519.htm

Jai Maharaj, Jyotishi
Om Shanti

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.fan.jai-maharaj

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