23:50
Weatherlawyer
This is an easy one. Overcast with mists or drizzle rather than rain.
And as it will have an hurricane in it too that will modify the spell
for the UK to 1 hour back for each increase in hurricane strength.
So how much is the change value from nothing to hurricane? Can I take
5 M as a stasis?
And even a cat 5 storm requires stasis.
So.. I don't know. I will have to boil that one in the bag for a night
or so.
Weatherlawyer
Oh, fiddle!
I said I was hopless at remembering things.
You'd think I'd get the spell we are in right though wouldn't you?
Recap, then:
Hide quoted text -
> Looks like that's it for this spell. New one tomorrow. Should have a
> North Atlantic Hurricane in it. Look out for some long pauses on the
> NEIC site.
> And let's see if I can guess where the quakes will be. Japan and ....
> nope can't remember. Greece?
Meanwhile here is warning of a stormer:
5.3 M. 24th; 05:24. 33.2 S. 179.4 W. South of the Kermadec Islands.
5.2 M. 22nd; 21:03. 8.4 S. 74.3 W. Central Peru.
Let's see an 18 hour gap gets it up to around hurricane strength. I
will guess that another 3 hours each for the next categories.
That makes 18 + 14 hours.
A Cat 5 if ever there was.
Pity about the swarm in the Aleutians and the negative North Atlantic.
So, maybe a Cat 3 and another massive-ish eruption from
Kasatochi..
How far is that new tropical storm from the Aleutians? 60 degrees.
***
60 degrees from southern Baja to Kasatochi, Andreanof Islands
52.177°N, 175.508°W.
***
It looks like there is a penchant for developing tropical storms to
move inland before they have time to build into hurricanes and
typhoons when the oceanic oscillations are negative.
Tropical storms move inland because they tend to go north when ocean
oscillations tend to be negative.
Tropical storms move out to sea in positive spells, because they tend
to go east or west in those.
The result is that acoustic channeling is driven overland and turns up
as quakes where there are normally few, or swarms where there are
volcanoes.
It knocks the idea of a Coriolis force on its head.
***
Negative oceanic oscillations, the so called El Nino / Southern
(Pacific) oscillation and the North AtIantic Oscillation are nothing
more (nor less) than weather spells of the following type:
2008
8 Jan 11:37 6
15 Jan 19:46 2
7 Feb 03:44 4
14 Feb 03:34 4
21 Feb 03:31 4
29 Feb 02:18 2
21 Mar 18:40 6
29 Mar 21:47 4
6 Apr 03:55 4
12 Apr 18:32 6
20 Apr 10:25 4
28 Apr 14:12 2
5 May 12:18 6
12 May 03:47 4
20 May 02:11 2
26 Jun 12:10 6
3 Jul 02:19 2
10 Jul 04:35 4
18 Jul 07:59 2
1 Aug 10:13 4
8 Aug 20:20 2
23 Aug 23:50 6
30 Aug 19:58 2
7 Sept 14:04 2
29 Sept 08:12 2
14 Oct 20:03 2
21 Oct 11:55 6
6 Nov 04:04 4
13 Nov 06:17 6
19 Dec 10:29 4
27 Dec 12:23 6
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html
I added the last column. The first are courtesy of Fred Espenak and
the JPL.
The spells for the times of the phases in rows ending with a 2 tend to
produce similar spells of weather to spells that occur when the time
of the phase is at 2 o'clock.
Similarly for rows that end with 4s and 6s. 10:29 for example tends
towards 10 which is the same as spells for 04:00; 10:00; 16:00 and
22:00.
The same might hold true for lunar phases at 10:45 but it is
stretching the thumb that rules. As far as I know each spell is
different or unique in some way but overall they tend to have a common
factor in those three major slots.
***
As of 25th Auguat:
ACTIVE STORMS
07L (Atlantic)
Julio (East Pacific)
Fay (Atlantic)
Isn't 07L following the same course that Fay travelled? And that
reminds me of the track of the last American Pacific tropical before
Julio.
But Fay and whatever occurred on a positive spell (21:17) n unsettled
positive though. Boy this is getting complex.
Posted on Aug 17, 8:49 am
Re: 21:16
> 16th to 23rd August: 21:16.
> There is already a Low over the UK. Soon it will be joined by another
> from the USA or Canada. That one has already been associated with
> some Aleutian quakes when it left the Appalachians / Carolinas.
> When it joins up with the stuff over here there will be some rotation
> and then it will go to the Baltic.
> If it does, then the North Atlantic will go negative again as it did
> over the last day or so. The present low pressure some sixty or so
> degrees North, thirty degrees West is a low Low;
> 978 MB is a change in the weather.
> Everything else in the N Atlantic is still "negative"....
(I think I meant positive or did I? Something in the dark. I need to
wake up. Ah dear, I get hopelessly tangled up in all this sometimes.)
....Which probably explains whuy the storm Fay is not much more than a
gale.:
ACTIVE STORMS
Fay (Atlantic)
13W (West Pacific)
Vongfong (West Pacific)
Iselle (East Pacific)
Some heavy or at least prolonged rain in Britain. I gather that means
drought west of the main rivers in the USA. I know it means more than
the usual supply of rain for the eastern seaboard there.
***
This is filling most of the Northern North Atlantic. >
http://www.cuckney.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/weather/Dorridge.htm
A spell like these means the death of two storms or for the massive
reduction in intensity of one of them:
5.1 M. 25th 19:14 30.7 83.5 W. Xizang
5.1 M. 25th 14:16 30.8 83.5 W. Xizang
5.3 M. 25th 13:40 30.8 83.4 W. Xizang
6.3 M. 25th 13:22 30.9 83.6 W. Xizang
Which leaves a door open for anyone interested in researching the
decay of massive tropical storms and the forcasting of earthquakes.
All one needs to do is take note of warnings that the storm is likely
to fade rapidly. And that information is quite readily available over
the internet.
And furthermore it seems to indicate a move frome one type of set-up
to another:
Are we going to be going back to tornadoes or do they refer to the
Tropical Storms broaching in the USA?
Septemberish we get some tornadic stuff don't we?
***
Sci Am Reuters videos of
1. Chinese quakes >
http://www.sciam.com/video.cfm?id=D56D655266EE564CA4885D676F99F0F9
2. Denver tornadoes >
http://www.sciam.com/video.cfm?id=9FB5054F35FABEE1EB3909E8C783EBD2
***
Well, anyhow I tried to put the posts in order. Cracks and all. It's
no good covering them up if I expect anyone to keep up with me.
I know this is all half arsed but I do have a life to live. Personally
I'd rather spend it writing poetry and telling jokes down the pub,
getting rip roaring, singing drunk.
That doesn't happen often these days.
Stuck here with this bloody gift.
Weatherlawyer
>
> This is filling most of the Northern North Atlantic. >
>
> http://www.cuckney.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/weather/Dorridge.htm
I put a few clips of them on the following links: >
http://groups.msn.com/Weatherlore/shoebox.msnw?action=ShowPhoto&PhotoID=9
>
http://groups.msn.com/Weatherlore/shoebox.msnw?action=ShowPhoto&PhotoID=8
>
http://groups.msn.com/Weatherlore/shoebox.msnw?action=ShowPhoto&PhotoID=10
They are Microsoft servers and thus painfully slow.
Weatherlawyer
> (Pacific) oscillation and the North AtIantic Oscillation are nothing
<el snippet>
There is Nooooooo way that all the negative stuff is related to those
phases.
Shoot! Now I have to look at data and stuff. I hate doing that.
Skywise
aa5b-5a2...@k13g2000hse.googlegroups.com:
Oh darn! You actually have to do some real science.
Bill Clinton feels your pain.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
Weatherlawyer
>
> > Negative oceanic oscillations, the so called El Nino / Southern
> > (Pacific) oscillation and the North AtIantic Oscillation are nothing
>
>
> Shoot! Now I have to look at data and stuff.
> I hate doing that.
Fortunately with those twin pairs of Chinese earthquakes on the 25th,
I can wait to see exactly how that data pans out.
Although it is pretty obviously connected to that other two day event
of the 22nd to 24th, the storm data doesn't come out until a week or
so after the end of the month.
All I have to do is try and remember to look out for it.
Meanwhile the Lows of the North Atlantic gathered over Iceland will be
filtering out over Norhtern Europe so that we can analyse them. They
should still be around for a day or so:
http://www.cuckney.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/weather/Dorridge.htm
Charts in the evening and I look at them in the day
I watch 'em in the morning and go to bed feeling the same way
But I never get tired
Man, I'm never tired or bored by myself
Not even maybe, I just leave the data on the shelf
You can't start a fire
You can't start a fire in a wet jerk
This gun's not for hire to those who are looking in the dark
The message keeps getting clearer
Sight's up at sites up all over the place
I check for storms in the mirror
I love the changes the lunar spells make
Seems like I am getting nowhere
I'm just living in a dump like this
There's something happening somewhere
And both god and I know how it is
But you can't start a fire
you can't start a fire without a spark
And I am not for hire
And I am not dancing, no;
No, I am not dancing, I will tell you one last time....
I am not dancing in the dark
Your theories are getting older
there's a joke there somewhere
it's not on me
I can shake the world off my shoulders
Come on fools, this laugh's on me
I post to Usenet
And the messages post alright
And the whole earth is hungry
Well, I have had my fill tonight
But keep watching the action
I'm sick of tracking the data as I write the book
Action loves reaction
But everyone is too sky wise to look
You can't start a fire
If you try too hard it will break your heart
And I am just an amateur
Everbody else is dancing in the dark
I can't start a fire worrying about their small world falling apart
This gun's not for hire
Every body seems happy to be dancing in the dark
And that's none of my business.
Weatherlawyer
> Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote in news:714e516d-e8fb-4330-
> aa5b-5a2c17cef...@k13g2000hse.googlegroups.com:
>
> > On Aug 27, 5:46 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >> Negative oceanic oscillations, the so called El Nino / Southern
> >> (Pacific) oscillation and the North AtIantic Oscillation are nothing
>
> > <el snippet>
>
> > There is Nooooooo way that all the negative stuff is related to those
> > phases.
>
> > Shoot! Now I have to look at data and stuff. I hate doing that.
>
> Oh darn! You actually have to do some real science.
You live in a small world enclosed with simplistic co-ordinates and
will not -at any price, attempt to see that the formulas of
geophysical phenomenae are not submissive to your little balls.
They are not concerned so much with the shape of the earth as with the
textures of it. But you can not see that and finally I leave you to
brood about it wherever you list to.
I would be grateful, if in some future place you can see a way from
your wind blown crags to inspire me, you will append your small
addenda out of the main-stream of my posts.
Thank you so much in advance.
Weatherlawyer
> On Aug 27, 5:46 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > This is filling most of the Northern North Atlantic. >
>
> >http://www.cuckney.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/weather/Dorridge.htm
>
> I put a few clips of them on the following links: >
>
>
>
>
> http://groups.msn.com/Weatherlore/shoebox.msnw?action=ShowPhoto&Photo...
>
>
>
> http://groups.msn.com/Weatherlore/shoebox.msnw?action=ShowPhoto&Photo... >
http://groups.msn.com/Weatherlore/shoebox.msnw?action=ShowPhoto&PhotoID=12
Skywise
8a9a-0fb...@x35g2000hsb.googlegroups.com:
> I would be grateful, if in some future place you can see a way from
> your wind blown crags to inspire me, you will append your small
> addenda out of the main-stream of my posts.
Youzza tellin' me to butta outta youz convazashun? Youzza postin'
inna public forum so youzza gonna getta public respondin. Capite?
Weatherlawyer
that don't seem capable of development. And they seem to form where
the last one in that sea tracked from.
They don't reach much intensity and they don't stray far from the
shore of a continent.
And there is a significant number of quite large magnitude quakes
scattered over the planet.
And this is the last day of the spell proper as some parts of the
globe get set up for the following spell tomorrow.
The next spell begins in the UK on the 30th. It will be a repeat of
these spells -or their mean, if that is possible:
15 Jan 19:46
29 Feb 02:18
28 Apr 14:12
20 May 02:11
3 July 02:19
18 Jul 07:59
8 Aug 20:20
30 Aug 19:58
7 Sept 14:04
29 Sept 08:12
14 Oct 20:03
The next spell is at almost exactly 20:00 (Aug 30 19:58) and the fact
there are so many phases in the same year that are amost the same
angles as it (or at 90 degrees to them) that it would be criminally
wasteful to not make the bloody best that it is possible to make of
it.
At 20:00 the sun is at wherever the time zone for 20:00 is from
greenwich.
The position of the moon depends on which phase it occurs in. For some
as yet to be explained reason, it doesn't seem to matter exactly which
phase it is.
At 08:00 the sun is 180 degrees to the first example and again the
moon is at some multiple of 90 degrees to that.
At 2 am or pm the sun is at 90 to the above and once more the moon is
at a multiple of 90 degrees.
I don't have any theories that explain things. Neither do I suppose
anyone who takes it on themselves to explain it will be able to get it
righ straight away.
I have no doubt that any mathematical observations made on my work
will be adopted one day and some new words taken up on the back of a
new branch or extension of science.
And then someone will come along and find out the right answer.
Weatherlawyer
> Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote in news:b7364b33-6fd6-49b8-
> 8a9a-0fb9de977...@x35g2000hsb.googlegroups.com:
>
> > I would be grateful, if in some future place you can see a way from
> > your wind blown crags to inspire me, you will append your small
> > addenda out of the main-stream of my posts.
>
> Youzza tellin' me to butta outta youz convazashun? Youzza postin'
> inna public forum so youzza gonna getta public respondin. Capite?
No, silly.
I would like to ignore you without having to resort to the only filter
I know of that works with Google Groups.
If you post off to one side, you can make your stupid points to no-one
in particular and I can scroll through my lunarcy without confronting
your excrement.
It would be a bit like having second sight. You get to feel omniscient
because you are dealing with a fool so far gone he can't even see your
posts and I wouldn't feel annoyed at your intrusion seeing only what I
want to see and seeing your posts are out there for losers to see and
pale at.
Weatherlawyer
Hey, how about that, the first one I can link to a North Atlantic Low.
I had a bad crick in my neck and left shoulder from yesterday though
it had been building for a few days. Earlier this evening it cleared
up after takinf some tablets for an headache it has entirely gone. And
that Low set up that broke apart yesterday has built up once again.
Go figure.
Weatherlawyer
>
> I had a bad crick in my neck and left shoulder from yesterday though
> it had been building for a few days. Earlier this evening it cleared
> up after takinf some tablets for an headache it has entirely gone. And
> that Low set up that broke apart yesterday has built up once again.
>
> Go figure.
The Lows are low enough for a positive side to the oscillation and the
Highs are on the low side that is a negative end.
So this is how things go with oscillations:
Positive:
In the North Atlantic, cyclones are deep Lows surrounded by high Highs
if any.
Tropical storms go east to west and are intense and are not afraid of
the open sea.
Negative:
In the North Atlantic, cyclones are high Lows surrounded by low highs
if any.
Tropical storms....
That remains to be seen outside of the N Atlantic but in that ocean
they move north and will travel as far as the Arctic Ocean. Normal
east to west lows also behave differently not arriving at Scotland or
Norway from Canada as the regular route.
Then there these:
When Lows are normal -that is fairly low but highs are not all that
high:
There is a lot of volcanic activity in the Aleutians with this one and
that is accompanied by swarms of Aleut quakes, some of them fairly
large.
World-wide the incidence of Mag 6 and greater quakes is common.
Tropical storms lack intensity or longevity but tend to be followed
soon after by replacements that resembles them fairly closely. They
tend to move north in the northern hemisphere and also tend to hug the
coasts.
Which leaves:
Spells where the Los are flaccid but the Highs are high. Which I dare
say will reveal themselves before the year is out.
Well... that's work in hand so far. Not bad for a Kook I imagine.
Skywise
they are most appropriate, right in the middle of your threads.
I for one do not care for the fact that you've turned this
newsgroup into your personal blogging zone. Most of the drivel
you post has absolutely nothing to do with this group.
bigd...@gmail.com
> No, sorry. Cannot comply. I will post my "stupid points" where
> they are most appropriate, right in the middle of your threads.
>
> I for one do not care for the fact that you've turned this
> newsgroup into your personal blogging zone. Most of the drivel
> you post has absolutely nothing to do with this group.
>
> Brian
Indeed, and he spends the vast amount of his time talking
to himself.
Stuart
Weatherlawyer
>
> Well... that's work in hand so far. Not bad for a Kook I imagine.
Here's some tornadic advancement:
5.0 M. 2008/08/29. 09:43. WESTERN XIZANG
I'm too good for this place.
Weatherlawyer
Or maybe not:
Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080829_rpts.html
Perhaps they require pairing. That would be revealing, if so.
But reveal what?
Weatherlawyer
>
> > Here's some tornadic advancement:
> > 5.0 M. 2008/08/29. 09:43. WESTERN XIZANG
What on earth was I thinking?
> Or maybe not:
> Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
> No reports received
>
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080829_rpts.html
I went against my own axiom that there are no tornadoes in hurricane
spells.
> Perhaps they require pairing. That would be revealing, if so.
>
> But reveal what?
Well first of all Fay or whatever spawned a suite of tornadoes as have
a number of such types of hurricanes. Analyse those.
Meanwhile why was I thinking that a 9 hour delay would supply
tornadoes in an hurricane spell when the hurricane was still off
shore?
Mainly the answer is that I am an idiot.
That should please Skywise so much he will be wrapped in deep darkness
for ages.
So, every one a winner, heh?
Weatherlawyer
> On Aug 30, 1:44 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > > Here's some tornadic advancement:
> > > 5.0 M. 2008/08/29. 09:43. WESTERN XIZANG
>
> What on earth was I thinking?
>
> > Or maybe not:
> > Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
> > No reports received
>
> >http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080829_rpts.html
>
> I went against my own axiom that there are no tornadoes in hurricane
> spells.
>
> > Perhaps they require pairing. That would be revealing, if so.
>
> > But reveal what?
5.7 M. 2008/08/30; 08:31; SICHUAN-YUNNAN BORDER REGION, CHINA
A 5.7 could allow for another near-by, in the > 5 range.
*****
There were 15 reports of tornadoes on the 27th (not 16 tornadoes)
28 on the 26th, 15 on the 25th, 11 on the 24th, 7 on the 23rd, and 8
on the 22nd.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080827_rpts.html
Back to the drawing board, I feel:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p_WU4hvc6p3VaHpFntgq6DA