14:12
Weatherlawyer
the region of 7.3 to occur early in it. However there was a series of
tornadoes running at the end of the last spell so maybe it will not
arrive.
14:12.
That's nearly quarter past two. A spell that generates tornadoes. I
don't know how much effect the storm in the Indian Ocean is having and
will have on things. Frankly this one is a steep learning curve for
me.
Weatherlawyer
The Low over Britain isn't producing much in the way of rain. Quite
nice really, with some light showers. All very odd.
Weatherlawyer
>
> The Low over Britain isn't producing much in the way of rain. Quite
> nice really, with some light showers. All very odd.
Whilst a Low of 999 mb is still a low, it is not much of one. The
isobars of the one around the UK at the moment:
>http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
extend half way over the North Atlantic.
Were the anticyclones a little less high (1032mb off Canada and 1017mb
over Scandinavia) I'd guess that activity at several volcanoes is
increased. Actually the extent of the Scandinavian one is just about
right.
It will be a week before we can find out on the Smithsonian site. One
can check up on the individual sites of likely suspects. There is a
list on here:
>http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm
A high of 1017 mb is pretty flaccid and so is a low of 999 mb. They
are pressures more commonly found at lower latitudes. And I imagine
might be likely in regions that suffer tornadoes.
So a relationship with natural disasters incorporates a pressure range
of 995 to 1020? I wonder what else they have in common besides the
same root cause. It would be nice if the NEIC site gave surface level
pressures along with mean power values.
Meanwhile I'd guess by the asymmetry that the volcanic event, if any,
is Hawaii again. If I had to guess. But we all know what they are
worth.
Weatherlawyer
>http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/io0108.gif
The region is usually devastated by any storms in the region coming
ashore, as deforestation all the way up to the tree line in the
Himalayas and bad land management right down to the shoreline has
coupled to cause now traditional flood disasters all through their
rainy season.
A major increase in the factor is the caste system if it exists in
Muslim countries, where the needs of replenishment do not fit into the
overall scheme of supply and demand.
>http://www.country-studies.com/bangladesh/social-classes-and-stratification.html
It didn't happen under the Raj, Asian or British. Not to the same
extend at least.
The last I heard is that the prawn industry worldwide is even ruining
fish stocks there. Corruption, ignorance and the inability to combine
so as to deal with the obvious rules KO.
Weatherlawyer
Atlantic and the only decent "dartboard" in the North Pacific is a low
with a core surface level pressure of about 990 mb.
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_gale_0.gif
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_gale_0.gif
I think that means a negative anomaly in both oceans. The Arctic has a
well defined High though, in the Gulf of Alaska.
There is a relative difference in core pressures for the same wind
speeds:
Dn Kn NA NWP
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
Dvorak Number - Knots - Pressure in Millibars - Altantic - Pacific.
>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique
I suppose that is the last anomaly I aught to be interested in but it
IS interesting.
Weatherlawyer
>
> There is almost no definite cyclone or anticyclone in the North
> Atlantic and the only decent "dartboard" in the North Pacific is a low
> with a core surface level pressure of about 990 mb.
I missed a rather special event in the Arctic. An high of 1056 just NW
of Greenland. That can't be far off a record for seal level pressures
can it?
Nagris has hit Rangoon in Further India. Two major rivers drain Burma
both port near where that storm broached:
>http://www.mizzima.com/news/breaking-news/1-breaking-news/415-cyclone-nargis-hits-rangoon
Weatherlawyer
Now a gale of 40 knots and the weather in the UK has reverted
accordingly. Soon we will see those tell tale earthquakes that match
almost to a tee their location. I wonder where.
The begged question to answer next is: Can those two be predicted?
I think I need to learn how to use a data base and will probably have
the time to do so before that particular penny drops.
The seismicity in the Andreanof Islands kicked off again at that
storm's peak too. I want to believe that the low deepening in the
North Atlantic ATM is the key. It breaks up at 1004 on Wednesday the
7th:
>http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
But the spell ends or changes perhaps on the 5th so it's anyone's
guess what happens then. I'm not saying anything.
It goes on for a full 9 days on this site:
>https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-bin/efs_loop.cgi?strt=0&incr=12&stop=240&imagePrefix=US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_gale_&title=FNMOC%20EFS%20Gale%20Probability%20Forecasts%20(North%20Atlantic%20Basin)
Well, anyway; that's the best I can do.
Weatherlawyer
> On May 3, 9:26 am, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > > There is almost no definite cyclone or anticyclone in the North
> > > Atlantic and the only decent "dartboard" in the North Pacific is a low
> > > with a core surface level pressure of about 990 mb.
>
> > I missed a rather special event in the Arctic. An high of 1056 just NW
> > of Greenland. That can't be far off a record for seal level pressures
> > can it?
>
> > Nagris has hit Rangoon in Further India. Two major rivers drain Burma
> > both port near where that storm broached:
>
> > >http://www.mizzima.com/news/breaking-news/1-breaking-news/415-cyclone...
>
> Now a gale of 40 knots and the weather in the UK has reverted
> accordingly. Soon we will see those tell tale earthquakes that match
> almost to a tee their location. I wonder where.
>
> The begged question to answer next is: Can those two be predicted?
> I think I need to learn how to use a data base and will probably have
> the time to do so before that particular penny drops.
>
> The seismicity in the Andreanof Islands kicked off again at that
> storm's peak too. I want to believe that the low deepening in the
> North Atlantic ATM is the key. It breaks up at 1004 on Wednesday the
> 7th:
>
>
> But the spell ends or changes perhaps on the 5th so it's anyone's
> guess what happens then. I'm not saying anything.
>
> It goes on for a full 9 days on this site:
>
>
> Well, anyway; that's the best I can do.
5.0 M. 2008/05/03 02:36. 42.8 S. 72.3 W. Los Lagos, Chile.
5.3 M. 2008/05/02 05:51. 42.7 S. 72.3 W. Los Lagos, Chile.
Fancy missing them. Would you believe I was looking for a pause rather
than the pair. Besides, I was expecting a couple of 6's.
Anyway the storm has gone.
Weatherlawyer
When a flaccid set up pertains in the North Atlantic and the Lows
don't behave the way that they are supposed to, expect:
"The population of Chaiten in Chile has been evacuated after a volcano
began to erupt, covering the town in ash.
The volcano spewed ash and caused tremors in the region on Friday,
forcing water supplies to be cut off, the authorities said.
By Sunday the town, about 1,300km from Santiago, the capital, was
covered in ash.
It is the volcano's first eruption in at least 2,000 years, according
to Sernageomin, a government mining and geology agency, and caused the
Patagonian town of nearly 4,500 people to be emptied.
Many evacuees travelled by boat to Chiloe Island to the north and
Puerto Montt on the mainland."
>http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F7930EFB-6587-476A-BFB8-2765B04D27BA.htm
Weatherlawyer
An interesting Low in the North Atlantic this. It wouldn't surprise me
if it continued all through the next spell too.
This morning a Cat 4 tropical storm appeared over Japan. No warnings
from any agency I saw.
Anyway the sun's coming out again after some drizzle yesterday. That
Low after being stationary over the other side of the Mid Atlantic
Ridge for a week moved quickly at the end of the last spell to Britain
and with this spell has returned to the west it is now 35 degrees west
and apparently filling.
Which could mean another eruption and then it will probably move
quickly west again. Wednesday looks favourite:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
Weatherlawyer
>
> This morning a Cat 4 tropical storm appeared over Japan. No warnings
> from any agency I saw.
Bloody fool I am, I was actually looking here and didn't see it:
5.1 M. 2008/05/05. 00:27. Near the east coast of Honshu, Japan.
5.8 M. 2008/05/03. 19:02. Bougainville region, PNG.
Weatherlawyer
5.3 M. 2008/05/06. 12:42 -20.4 168.8 Loyalty Islands
5.1 M. 2008/05/06. 10:06 -20.3 168.8 Loyalty Islands
5.3 M. 2008/05/05. 21:58 28.4 54.1 Southern Iran
If you take the matched pair out of this equation you get a lapse of
over 24 hours for the next pair:
06. 23:28 -7.9 123.2 Banda Sea
05. 21:58 28.4 54.1 Southern Iran
And a storm in the west (Asian) Pacific:
http://www.hurricanezone.net/tcgraphics/wp0308.gif
No hurricane yet (it is classed as a gale on the Beaufort Scale) it
will frow more powerful or the earthquake I said would arrive some
days ago is at last going to avail itself for our edification.
One more axiom for clueless:
When the classical methods of weather-forecasting show arror or
uncertainty and there is something of the same ilk with my efforts
then the likelihood (the North Atlantic having a positive NAO
(According to my way of classifying said anomaly. (Not that I think it
is anomalous, in the true meaning of the word.)))