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Why the NHL is Hot and the NBA is Not (Again)
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TMC
May 14, 2012, 2:25:10 AM5/14/12
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http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2012/05/why-the-nhl-is-hot-and-the-nba-is-not-again/
In 1994, the cover of ‘Sports Illustrated’ ran a provocative headline
that is likely framed somewhere in NHL headquarters: Why the NHL’s Hot
and the NBA’s Not.
The article itself is hardly as well known as the headline, and not
quite as cut and dry. “No one is suggesting that the popularity of the
NBA is in free fall,” E.M. Swift wrote (though many publications would
claim as much over the next decade). As for the NHL, ratings on ESPN
did not reflect the “surge in hockey interest” (SI, 6/20/94).
The story painted a picture that was partly true. For the NBA, 1994
was a Jordan-free year that included a pair of playoff brawls and
culminated with a ratings dud in the NBA Finals. For the NHL, 1994 was
the year of the Rangers’ memorable run to the championship. Even in a
down year, however, the NBA still had a substantial lead over the
surging NHL. Consider that Game 7 of the Knicks/Rockets NBA Finals
drew a 17.9 U.S. rating on NBC. By contrast, Game 7 of the Rangers/
Canucks Stanley Cup Finals drew a 5.2 cable rating on ESPN (a 6.9 when
the local New York audience on MSG Network was included).
All of which is to say that the suggestion that ‘the NHL is hot’ and
the ‘NBA is not’ is relative. To make that suggestion today is not to
say that the NHL has caught up with the NBA. Indeed, it has not and
likely never will. With that said, one cannot overlook momentum, and
the NHL seems to have the NBA beaten in that area — at least during
the postseason.
The 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs has earned surprisingly strong numbers
on NBC and NBC Sports Network (formerly Versus). The first three weeks
of the playoffs on NBC were the most-viewed on broadcast since 1998,
with Game 6 of the Bruins/Capitals first round series earning the
largest non-final audience since 1997. On NBC Sports Network,
exclusive second round coverage was up 48% through the first ten days
of play, with the caveat that several of last year’s games were
blacked out in home markets.
On May 2, the Rangers’ triple-overtime win over the Capitals in Game 3
of their second round series drew 1.9 million viewers on NBC Sports
Network, the highest for a second round game on cable since 2000 – and
slightly ahead of a Jazz/Spurs NBA playoff blowout on TNT. Not bad,
considering that NBC Sports Network was in nearly 20 million fewer
homes than TNT at the start of April.
For the NBA, the postseason has offered a different story. After ABC
and TNT both had their most-viewed regular seasons ever, the majority
of first round playoff games have suffered declines in viewership. The
previously mentioned Jazz/Spurs game and the Clippers/Grizzlies
matchup that followed were both down over 40% from the comparable
games in 2010 (one of which, to be fair, involved the Lakers).
It may be tempting to blame injuries to star players. Game 2 of the
Sixers/Bulls series, the first without injured Bulls star Derrick
Rose, was down 34% from last year. However, Game 1 of the same series
— in which Rose played 37 minutes before his season-ending injury –
was down 31%. It may also be tempting to blame lingering fan
resentment from the lockout, but the record ratings from the regular
season would seem to counter that argument.
Perhaps the best explanation is that last year’s record pace (TNT had
the most-viewed postseason ever on cable) was simply too much to keep
up with. Most of this year’s games have had increases compared to
2010.
Even with the apparent enthusiasm gap between the Stanley Cup and NBA
playoffs, the NBA still has a dominant lead overall. The NHL cannot be
too proud that a triple-overtime game involving top ten media markets
New York (#1) and Washington, D.C. (#8) could only barely eke out a
ratings victory over a 31-point blowout between the #33 (Salt Lake
City) and #36 (San Antonio) markets. The 3.52 million viewers for
Bruins/Capitals — again, a fifteen-year high — has been exceeded by
fifteen of the first 29* NBA playoff games this year.
The NHL is much more competitive on a local level. In Boston, for
example, the Bruins (4.7) outrated the Celtics (3.24^) during the
regular season, and last year’s Bruins/Canucks Stanley Cup Final
averaged a higher rating than the Celtics/Lakers NBA Finals a year
earlier (28.1 to 25.0). In Philadelphia, the Flyers (3.3) topped the
Sixers (2.4) during the regular season and beat them by 226% when
their playoff games aired head-to-head on May 1.
But those are just two markets, and the NBA can claim supremacy in
others. In New York, the Knicks (3.3) outdrew the Rangers (0.99) by
233% on MSG during the regular season, and Game 1 of their first round
series against the Heat more than doubled Game 1 of the Rangers/
Capitals second round series head-to-head on April 28. In Chicago, the
Bulls outdrew the Blackhawks by 87% on CSN Chicago during the regular
season.
So even if the NHL can claim victory in a few markets, do not expect
the league to catch up with the NBA anytime soon. The gap is simply
too wide, and momentum does not always last.
With the NBA looking forward to potential Thunder/Lakers and Celtics/
Heat series and the NHL possibly staring down the barrel of a Devils/
Coyotes Stanley Cup Final, the leagues’ respective fortunes could
change in mere weeks. Then again, if the NHL gets a Rangers/Kings
dream series in the Stanley Cup Final and the Spurs make it back to
the NBA Finals, it could be time for another SI cover story.
Either way, the NHL can enjoy its good fortune for at least the time
being. In a year where ratings have slumped for the NBA Playoffs, the
Stanley Cup Playoffs may be the hottest sporting event going. For the
first time in eighteen years, that infamous SI cover is dead on.
* Does not include Bulls/Sixers Game 4 or Heat/Knicks Game 4 on ABC,
as viewership for those games was not available.
^ Sports Business Journal data was current through the final week of
the regular season
http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2012-articles/may/nba-nhl-ratings-going-in-different-directions.html
In 1994, the cover of ‘Sports Illustrated’ ran a provocative headline
that is likely framed somewhere in NHL headquarters: Why the NHL’s Hot
and the NBA’s Not.
The article itself is hardly as well known as the headline, and not
quite as cut and dry. “No one is suggesting that the popularity of the
NBA is in free fall,” E.M. Swift wrote (though many publications would
claim as much over the next decade). As for the NHL, ratings on ESPN
did not reflect the “surge in hockey interest” (SI, 6/20/94).
The story painted a picture that was partly true. For the NBA, 1994
was a Jordan-free year that included a pair of playoff brawls and
culminated with a ratings dud in the NBA Finals. For the NHL, 1994 was
the year of the Rangers’ memorable run to the championship. Even in a
down year, however, the NBA still had a substantial lead over the
surging NHL. Consider that Game 7 of the Knicks/Rockets NBA Finals
drew a 17.9 U.S. rating on NBC. By contrast, Game 7 of the Rangers/
Canucks Stanley Cup Finals drew a 5.2 cable rating on ESPN (a 6.9 when
the local New York audience on MSG Network was included).
All of which is to say that the suggestion that ‘the NHL is hot’ and
the ‘NBA is not’ is relative. To make that suggestion today is not to
say that the NHL has caught up with the NBA. Indeed, it has not and
likely never will. With that said, one cannot overlook momentum, and
the NHL seems to have the NBA beaten in that area — at least during
the postseason.
The 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs has earned surprisingly strong numbers
on NBC and NBC Sports Network (formerly Versus). The first three weeks
of the playoffs on NBC were the most-viewed on broadcast since 1998,
with Game 6 of the Bruins/Capitals first round series earning the
largest non-final audience since 1997. On NBC Sports Network,
exclusive second round coverage was up 48% through the first ten days
of play, with the caveat that several of last year’s games were
blacked out in home markets.
On May 2, the Rangers’ triple-overtime win over the Capitals in Game 3
of their second round series drew 1.9 million viewers on NBC Sports
Network, the highest for a second round game on cable since 2000 – and
slightly ahead of a Jazz/Spurs NBA playoff blowout on TNT. Not bad,
considering that NBC Sports Network was in nearly 20 million fewer
homes than TNT at the start of April.
For the NBA, the postseason has offered a different story. After ABC
and TNT both had their most-viewed regular seasons ever, the majority
of first round playoff games have suffered declines in viewership. The
previously mentioned Jazz/Spurs game and the Clippers/Grizzlies
matchup that followed were both down over 40% from the comparable
games in 2010 (one of which, to be fair, involved the Lakers).
It may be tempting to blame injuries to star players. Game 2 of the
Sixers/Bulls series, the first without injured Bulls star Derrick
Rose, was down 34% from last year. However, Game 1 of the same series
— in which Rose played 37 minutes before his season-ending injury –
was down 31%. It may also be tempting to blame lingering fan
resentment from the lockout, but the record ratings from the regular
season would seem to counter that argument.
Perhaps the best explanation is that last year’s record pace (TNT had
the most-viewed postseason ever on cable) was simply too much to keep
up with. Most of this year’s games have had increases compared to
2010.
Even with the apparent enthusiasm gap between the Stanley Cup and NBA
playoffs, the NBA still has a dominant lead overall. The NHL cannot be
too proud that a triple-overtime game involving top ten media markets
New York (#1) and Washington, D.C. (#8) could only barely eke out a
ratings victory over a 31-point blowout between the #33 (Salt Lake
City) and #36 (San Antonio) markets. The 3.52 million viewers for
Bruins/Capitals — again, a fifteen-year high — has been exceeded by
fifteen of the first 29* NBA playoff games this year.
The NHL is much more competitive on a local level. In Boston, for
example, the Bruins (4.7) outrated the Celtics (3.24^) during the
regular season, and last year’s Bruins/Canucks Stanley Cup Final
averaged a higher rating than the Celtics/Lakers NBA Finals a year
earlier (28.1 to 25.0). In Philadelphia, the Flyers (3.3) topped the
Sixers (2.4) during the regular season and beat them by 226% when
their playoff games aired head-to-head on May 1.
But those are just two markets, and the NBA can claim supremacy in
others. In New York, the Knicks (3.3) outdrew the Rangers (0.99) by
233% on MSG during the regular season, and Game 1 of their first round
series against the Heat more than doubled Game 1 of the Rangers/
Capitals second round series head-to-head on April 28. In Chicago, the
Bulls outdrew the Blackhawks by 87% on CSN Chicago during the regular
season.
So even if the NHL can claim victory in a few markets, do not expect
the league to catch up with the NBA anytime soon. The gap is simply
too wide, and momentum does not always last.
With the NBA looking forward to potential Thunder/Lakers and Celtics/
Heat series and the NHL possibly staring down the barrel of a Devils/
Coyotes Stanley Cup Final, the leagues’ respective fortunes could
change in mere weeks. Then again, if the NHL gets a Rangers/Kings
dream series in the Stanley Cup Final and the Spurs make it back to
the NBA Finals, it could be time for another SI cover story.
Either way, the NHL can enjoy its good fortune for at least the time
being. In a year where ratings have slumped for the NBA Playoffs, the
Stanley Cup Playoffs may be the hottest sporting event going. For the
first time in eighteen years, that infamous SI cover is dead on.
* Does not include Bulls/Sixers Game 4 or Heat/Knicks Game 4 on ABC,
as viewership for those games was not available.
^ Sports Business Journal data was current through the final week of
the regular season
http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2012-articles/may/nba-nhl-ratings-going-in-different-directions.html
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