Signing Radulov

[Gerry]

Ok, we've touched on this in past threads, but now is The Time that it really comes to the forefront. We've seen today that there was no deal secretly agreed to before the expansion draft. There is some negotiation ongoing, and it's not at all settled, given the Habs seem to be "leaking" the first ask of the Radulov camp.

They expect everybody to scoff at 6 yrs x $7M. Almost everybody is scoffing on cue. And that Radulov will then come back with smaller numbers.

But... Radulov is the best forward available on the UFA market this summer. And there aren't a lot of consolation prizes either. This might be an unprecedented free agent frenzy in terms of the lack of quality players available. I've seen teams hand out some deals that are comparably ludicrous... in years where there are 5 or 6 equivalent players available.

I'd have to say, if I was Radulov's agent I'd hanging tight. He probably won't actually get 6x$7M due to his past issues. But it's probably worth going to market just in case. The Habs have to be more desperate than just about anybody, it would be solid business to hold their feet to the fire.

l8r,
Gerry

[gorgo...@gmail.com]

I would be happy with 4 years at 6 mill and hesitantly agree to 5 years as long as the salary is front loaded to the first 3 years then tail off for the last three. However, 6 years is to long and I doubt there will be many, or even any, teams that will agree to that term. Actually, if that is Radu's first ask than I'm encouraged as I would say they would have expected to pay 6 mill per year, it's length of contract thats the only issue. I fear Quebec's high taxes may be the killer though. Pretty hard to compete against places that have very low tax.

[Gerry]

This is about where I'd be at too. 4x$6M would be "fair", I believe. I thought Radulov looked like the team's best forward most nights, and certainly was in the playoffs, but at the end of the day he did only get 18 goals and 50 points. The numbers don't tell the whole story, but they also don't really prove his case.

I could maybe see $7M on a 3 year deal? Or I think in a past thread I suggested I might grudgingly go 6x$6M, but that's pretty tough to imagine.

And indeed, tax is huge here. In Quebec, on a $7M salary, he'd pay $3,708,365.98 in taxes. In Nashville or Florida or Texas (and I think Vegas) he'd pay basically $1M less than this. So the difference between $6M and $7M could be entirely covered by tax alone.

Anyway, if I'm his agent he almost certainly goes to market "just in case". It just takes one crazy GM out there to offer the full retirement deal of his first ask. And it's not like the Habs are very likely to just "move on" and take the next best guy on July 1st... because there is basically no one else. Many years you'd have to worry a little bit about being left standing when the music stopped and ending up blowing your chance. I don't think that's likely to happen this year, with such slim pickings. And then for Radulov, even if it did, the KHL can pay him more than even his first ask money, so he has built-in insurance.

l8r,
Gerry

[Ed]

All the discussions about Radulov and Chucky should also include how the decisions impact Price.

How does he look at the team if Radulov leaves and Alex gets traded? If there's good return and/FA signings, it doesn't hurt as much. If it's just subtraction, how does Carey then feel?

Would he be happy to just stay and have his entire career with Montreal? Would he want to add the last piece of hardware to his collection?

If the team doesn't look at least as strong as last year, I'd expect a difficult negotiation with the Price camp.

I don't expect MB to open the Molson vault for Radulov but the impact of him leaving could be even more costly. I like the previously stated 4 x $6M. Longer term for the 31 year old? Don't think so.


Ed

[Gerry]

I have to say, I pretty much took it for granted that Radulov and Markov would be back. But it's June 30th.

I have been taking it for granted that Price extends too.

Hm.

l8r,
Gerry