2017-18 Roster & Cap

[Gerry]

So here's a hot take on where things stand for the coming season. -ish.

Pacioretty ($4.5M) - Danault ($0.9125M) - Radulov (??UFA - $6M??)
Galchenyuk (??RFA - $3M??) - Shaw ($3.9M) - Gallagher ($3.75M)
Lehkonen ($0.839167M) - Plekanec ($6M) - Byron ($1.167M)
Martinsen ($0.675M) - Mitchell ($1.2M) - McCarron ($0.863M)
Hudon/De La Rose (??RFA - $0.7M??)

Markov (??UFA - $3M??) - Weber ($7.857M$)
Beaulieu (??RFA - $2M??) - Petry ($5.5M)
Emelin ($4.1M) - Benn ($1.1M)
Davidson ($1.425M) - Jerabek/Sergachev ($0.925M)

Price ($6.5M)
Montoya ($1.0625M)

Total: $66.976M

This could be almost $10M below the new cap value. Or at worst around $6M below? Bottom line is that there is quite a bit of wiggle room. Of course, there will also be a loss to the expansion draft. If it's one of the more expensive guys, the cap space could be enormous.

Ironically, perhaps the best UFA forward available this year is... Radulov. And for all his agedness, Markov is probably one of the best UFA dmen. There isn't a lot of salvation to be had on the UFA market, methinks. Mostly aging or underperforming guys.

There also isn't really a lot of room for adding more bargain bin depth guys. The roster is full enough at the bottom end.

The team needs to grab some top end talent. They probably have the cap space to do it, but do they have the assets to make a trade?

This lineup would need an awful lot of things to go right to make the playoffs IMHO.

l8r,
Gerry

[Jim Bauch]

Yeah, I think your estimate for Markov is way too low. Radulov and Galchenyuk a little on the low side, too, though not as much.

If you're Marc Bergevin, don't you pretty much have to get aggressive and make a trade designed to win now? There's three basic ways this organization can go right now:

Option 1 -- Tank and rebuild. Whatever the merits of this approach may or may not be, I think we can safely assume that MB ain't ready to do it. It would be an admission of failure, and I don't think MB believes that he has failed yet, let alone be willing to admit it.

Option 2 -- All-out WIN NOW approach. Sergachev, any other prospect with value, and draft picks this year and in 2018 are all on the board if needed to fetch what it would take to make this team a serious contender. Not only is there a fair bit of cap already, you can free up more by inducing a team to take Plekanec's contract.
Failure would leave the cupboard even barer than it is, but... see below.

Option 3 -- Tinker around the edges. Make another bargain basement pickup or two, maybe a modest trade to fulfill a need, but otherwise give Julien a chance to fully implement his system, and hope that Price can steal some playoff games and that Pacioretty shows up.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that MB will go with (3). Which is nominally the "conservative" option, but it has its own risks. It could mean another season or two of --- well, not mediocrity, better than that, but far from greatness. Will Price be that eager to sign up long-term to labor behind an aging defense corps? Will Pacioretty enjoy the pressure of being the captain and expected offensive leader?

Jim

[Gerry]

I can see Galchenyuk getting more on a multi-year deal, or Markov getting less on 2-year deal (which I'd pursue for him). Term will be a factor. Radulov probably also depends on what the external market is - are enough other teams with openings convinced that his past is behind him like we are? - if so, as perhaps the best UFA forward on the market his price could go through the roof.

If MB loses these players I really wonder what he'll manage. I get the sense again that he is going to have many irons in many fires throughout the next month. From the expansion draft considerations on through the draft and FA frenzy, I bet he's going to explore a ton of things, he usually does. Can't fault him on effort anyway. Though of course he ultimately gets judged on the end result.

So while his intentions/explorations could be all over the map on your 3 options (trading for Duchene, trading away Sergachev or other futures, trying to pick up the #3 overall draft pick)... the track record suggests that what he ultimately settles on will end up looking like Option 3, even if there were more dramatic options he considered which would have fallen under the other categories.

l8r,
Gerry

[Chuck]

Getting rid of both Pleks and Emelin would free a significant amount of cap space. Neither are worth the cap space they tie up. Cheaper 3rd line center options and Emelin should be paid 2 mill less

[Nyssa]

Agreed. No way is Plecks worth $6M cap hit.

With the average draft prospects this year, he's be nuts to
try to move up by trading picks or by trading away prospects.
But we *are* talking about MB here, so no telling what he's
thinking.

There are no better players on the FA market this time than
two we already have: my pet and Radu, so going after FAs from
other sources would be a wasted effort and probably would want
more than they're actually worth. Better to use that money and
effort to ensure that Radu stays put and that the draft
picks are actually pieces we need, not just those who might
be highly rated. (Hint: center and top defense, not future
pluggers.)

Plus there needs to be some work on the Price re-signing too.

It'll be interesting (and probably frightening) to see who
is left unprotected for the expansion draft.

Geez, this two day wait between playoff games sucks. Nothing
like killing the buzz from the last game while the talking
heads try to dig up more inane chatter to fill the airwaves
until the next puck drop.

Nyssa, who has heard that the NHL will be sprinkling the names
of the expansion pick lists in between the award ceremonies
which will well and truly suck too

[Gerry]

On Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 12:29:58 PM UTC-4, Nyssa wrote:
...

> Nyssa, who has heard that the NHL will be sprinkling the names
> of the expansion pick lists in between the award ceremonies
> which will well and truly suck too

What a way to try to get us to watch the lame awards show. :(

l8r,
Gerry

[Mike]

Am in complete agreement that Pleks is not worth $6M but he's only got
one year left. If the Habs can get a bona fide #1 or #1B centre, he
would make a very useful shutdown #3 Centre. Now, maybe they can't fit
him under the cap in that situation but even still, the UFA market is
thin on centres so only a trade would seem to be the option that brings
in the centre they're looking for. Nobody is taking Pleks for free I
don't think so he's with this team next year by the looks of it.

My take on the Habs is the same as it was last year - we're a lot closer
to a rebuild than we are a cup. I see no way that this team competes for
a cup next year without some serious influx of talent - a #1 centre, a
first pairing D Man, Radulov or someone of his ilk. No way they're
fitting that under the cap.

And I agree with the Jim who feels that MB will tinker around the edges,
sign Price and hope for the best.

Its time all Habs fans were honest with themselves. The core that MB and
Therrien inherited has been wasted. Its rebuild time. And don't listen
to the talking heads on TSN690 - fans wont put up with a rebuild.
Horseshit. We've been fed a steady feed of baloney sandwiches for 25
years. I'll eat some spam for 5 years if it means I can get some prime
rib eventually.

[Nyssa]

Since the awards ceremony is shown on a channel unavailable
to me, I won't be watching anyway.

This approach is sort of a new take on "winners and losers."
They announce the winner of one award, then do a cut to a
list of players left unprotected by their teams for the
expansion draft...the losers...and which one will be moving
to Nevada this fall.

Although some may say having to live and play in Las Vegas
is a win-win, I'm not one of 'em.

Nyssa, who has no desire to either visit Vegas or to hear
Celine Dionne murder two national anthems

[Gerry]

I think when they talk about fans not putting up with a rebuild, it's not necessarily us they'd be talking about. The Habs have a lot of fans. All around the world, all around Canada. But as much as the die-hards would indeed stick it out, I think there is lots of room for them to lose - or temporarily lose - some of the more casual or out-of-market fans who could latch onto something else while the Habs rebuilt.

And for myself, I wouldn't have a ton of confidence in having Bergevin overseeing a rebuild either. It wouldn't be a compelling process that would keep me especially interested in following the team. I'd frankly prefer the tinkering, the off-chance hope that they somehow land another lucky Radulov find or two.

Such a shame they let the Shipachyov ship sail away to Vegas. For all that he may have bombed, I think the Habs are in the kind of situation where they have to take any free Hail Marys like that who come along.

l8r,
Gerry

[Mike]

Holy dogshit. You know something, you're bang on. Celine Dion will
indeed do the anthems, you just watch. Have your barf bags ready. And
you can bet your bottom fucking dollar it will be against the Canadiens.

[Chuck]

If they could lock him in as a 3rd line center, I`d be happy. Unfortunately he and his anemic scoring stats always seem to chew up 1st and 2nd line minutes. As long as he gets those minutes, Montreal will still suffer from offensive draught. He is missing from the box scores too many games. Why keep him? Unless he would be willing to accept a hefty pay cut, he will not be resigned. He doesn`t make his wingers better. No one will improve as a winger on his line, so if the goal is to develop talent, keeping him will spin the tires.

[Jim Bauch]

On Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 10:32:30 AM UTC-7, Mike wrote:
> Am in complete agreement that Pleks is not worth $6M but he's only got
> one year left. If the Habs can get a bona fide #1 or #1B centre, he
> would make a very useful shutdown #3 Centre. Now, maybe they can't fit
> him under the cap in that situation but even still, the UFA market is
> thin on centres so only a trade would seem to be the option that brings
> in the centre they're looking for. Nobody is taking Pleks for free I
> don't think so he's with this team next year by the looks of it.

I agree that nobody will take him this summer. By the trade deadline, though, the cap hit will be much less of a factor and the Habs could move him for a 3rd or even a 2nd rounder -- though they presumably won't if they're still in contention for the playoffs. Ditto for Emelin.

> My take on the Habs is the same as it was last year - we're a lot closer
> to a rebuild than we are a cup. I see no way that this team competes for
> a cup next year without some serious influx of talent - a #1 centre, a
> first pairing D Man, Radulov or someone of his ilk. No way they're
> fitting that under the cap.

Yeah, I put on my optimist's cap and try to squint real hard and see if I can make out a Cup in the future, and it's still pretty damn hard. Maybe if Julien really implements a more effective system and gets some guys going again. Maybe if Pacioretty finds a way to be effective in the playoffs. If Price can carry them. If Galchenyuk continues to improve. If there's an unexpected pleasant surprise from a young player. If Markov can continue to be effective. If all those things go right.... MAYBE a real Cinderella run is possible. Maybe.

> And I agree with the Jim who feels that MB will tinker around the edges,
> sign Price and hope for the best.
>
> Its time all Habs fans were honest with themselves. The core that MB and
> Therrien inherited has been wasted. Its rebuild time. And don't listen
> to the talking heads on TSN690 - fans wont put up with a rebuild.
> Horseshit. We've been fed a steady feed of baloney sandwiches for 25
> years. I'll eat some spam for 5 years if it means I can get some prime
> rib eventually.

I'm not even sure what it's supposed to mean to say that "fans won't put up with a rebuild." As MB likes to remind us, fans don't run the team. If they did, Subban wouldn't have been traded. Therrien would have been fired sooner. Etc.

If a GM proposes to rebuild the team, and ownership signs off on it, then a rebuild is happening. Even if fans suddenly rebel and ... what? Stop buying tickets? Don't watch the broadcasts? Well, at worst it's a short-term drop in revenues. Perhaps there are some teams whose owners can't afford to absorb a short-term loss, but I wouldn't think the Habs would be one of them.

Jim

[Chuck]

On Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 1:32:30 PM UTC-4, Mike wrote:

I`d rather they lose with players who will learn and be better next season, then players who will be gone the following season. They need to get the age of their defense corps lower and get consistent depth beyond one line of players. Otherwise MB's "Tinkering" will only succeed in getting a less useful first round pick.

[Gerry]

Update time... $5.5M for Drouin, and just supposing the rest stay around... oh yeah and _obviously_ if Drouin is worth $5.5M, so is Galchenyuk, right...? I maxed out some of the other remaining FAs too. And of course, there's still somebody to lose in expansion...

Pacioretty ($4.5M) - Danault ($0.9125M) - Radulov (??UFA - $6M??)

Drouin ($5.5M) - Galchenyuk (??RFA - $5.5M??) - Gallagher ($3.75M)

Lehkonen ($0.839167M) - Plekanec ($6M) - Byron ($1.167M)

Martinsen ($0.675M) - Mitchell ($1.2M) - Shaw ($3.9M)
McCarron ($0.863M)

Markov (??UFA - $4M??) - Weber ($7.857M$)
Beaulieu (??RFA - $2.5M??) - Petry ($5.5M)

Emelin ($4.1M) - Benn ($1.1M)

Davidson ($1.425M) - Jerabek ($0.925M)

Price ($6.5M)
Montoya ($1.0625M)

Total: $75.776M

So at one point it was said the PA wouldn't use the escalator, then maybe they wouldn't use it all, so I don't know, but the cap ought to fall in around $74-75Mish depending on what escalator they settle on. I think with the above lineup, minus expansion, minus them actually not paying one or two of the FAs quite that much, it'll fly.

l8r,
Gerry

[Gerry]

Incidentally, I saw LeBrun tweet today that the PA is voting on a 2.5% escalator that would see the cap land at $75M.

l8r,
Gerry

[Gerry]

I imagine the updates will come fast and furious with a Radulov contract and a Galchenyuk trade... but fwiw...

Pacioretty ($4.5M) - Danault ($0.9125M) - Radulov (??UFA - $6M??)
Drouin ($5.5M) - Galchenyuk (??RFA - $5.5M??) - Gallagher ($3.75M)
Lehkonen ($0.839167M) - Plekanec ($6M) - Byron ($1.167M)
Martinsen ($0.675M) - Mitchell ($1.2M) - Shaw ($3.9M)
McCarron ($0.863M)

Markov (??UFA - $4M??) - Weber ($7.857M$)

Davidson ($1.425M) - Petry ($5.5M)
Jerabek ($0.925M) - Benn ($1.1M)
???

Price ($6.5M)
Montoya ($1.0625M)

Total: $69.176M
(Cap is confirmed now at $75M)

My guesses would be that they try to fix that abysmal left side of the D. The two most-rumoured trade destinations for Galchenyuk lately are Minnesota and Florida, which would most likely involve Jason Demers (though he shoots R, has 4 years left at $4.5M) or Marco Scandella (3 more years at $4M). I can certainly see them signing a bargain bin veteran UFA D like Beauchemin as well at something like $1.5M for a year.

So if you slotted say Scandella and Beauchemin on that D chart at $5.5M, subtract Galchenyuk, I wonder what was accomplished overall. Drouin in and Galchenyuk out is sideways, Emelin and Beaulieu out for Scandella and Beauchemin would likewise be sideways at best. I guess you could say they would have added some significant local flavour with 3 PQ guys at least. But aside from that, nothing would have been addressed at center, and the team would have lost it's best prospect in Sergachev, leaving a void where we thought the eventual replacement of Markov was covered.

Now, that's assuming they do indeed sign Markov and Radulov.

Some reports suggested that Dadonov was still on the Habs' radar, although more often he's expected to go to Vegas to join Shipachyov. I don't think a Dadonov signing salvages anything. He's generally considered more of a tag-along sidekick amongst the SKA stars, and already failed to make much impact in North America in his first go-round.

Bergevin will have to pull off some interesting stunts to convince me that he has managed to do anything to improve the team.

l8r,
Gerry

[Chuck]

I think MB is chasing top 5 Entry Draft picks rather then middle of the road defencemen. That after the dust settles Montreal's first 2 picks will be a acquired high 1st round pick followed by the 3rd rounder from Buffalo

[Nyssa]

The huge problem with this strategy is the total lack of an
effective and coordinated development system for picks.

So they'll pick another five victims, then a few years down
the road when they haven't developed "properly" to their
undefined standards, trade each one for the equivalent of
a bag of pucks.

Not a winning strategy. It may be a cheap one though since
the kids will be making peanuts compared to those favored
fourth line depth vets that MB keeps stocking.

We *had* picks, some highly talented. And what was done with
them? Talent and opportunity wasted.

There have been no changes made in their coaching staff in
the minors or even assistants with the big team, so what is
supposed to change besides the city the AHL team will be playing
in?

I'm not optimistic. Can you tell?

Nyssa, who is waiting to find out where her pet will be shipped
off to and what pluggers or problem children we get in return

[Gerry]

I don't see what assets they have to do that. Galchenyuk is it. If they trade him for a pick, the defense is a shambles. Well, the defense might be a shambles either way. I can't fathom how they could think that a top draft pick helps this team any. They've also done such a fine job of running Galchenyuk down and making their desperation to move him so apparent that I think they'll be hardpressed to even get a top pick for him, which is just crazy... he's better than most of this year's picks will turn out to be.

l8r,
Gerry

[Chuck]

I'm not sure if the talent that is available in this years draft is impressing GMs enough, other then maybe the top two picks to convince teams to hang onto the remainder. Look how freely they coughed them up to Vegas with not much more then the status quo in return.

[Gerry]

First update is Dave Schlemko slotting in on D. So now they don't have to drop money on Beauchemin, basically. Schlemko is kind a basic utility defender, not unlike Benn minus the physicality, or like what Davidson maybe aspires to be if he can stick in the NHL.

A classic Bargain Bin pick up for Bergevin... at the cost of a 5th round pick, none can argue with the value. But is the team better? Hmm. Better than not having anybody, sure. 3 years at $2.1M isn't going to cripple the team, no matter what.

Pacioretty ($4.5M) - Danault ($0.9125M) - Radulov (??UFA - $6M??)
Drouin ($5.5M) - Galchenyuk (??RFA - $5.5M??) - Gallagher ($3.75M)
Lehkonen ($0.839167M) - Plekanec ($6M) - Byron ($1.167M)
Martinsen ($0.675M) - Mitchell ($1.2M) - Shaw ($3.9M)
McCarron ($0.863M)

Markov (??UFA - $4M??) - Weber ($7.857M$)
Davidson ($1.425M) - Petry ($5.5M)

Schlemko ($2.1M) - Benn ($1.1M)
Jerabek ($0.925M)

Price ($6.5M)
Montoya ($1.0625M)

Total: $71.276M

(Cap is confirmed now at $75M)

Next?

l8r,
Gerry

[Jim Bauch]

On Thursday, June 22, 2017 at 10:26:54 AM UTC-7, Gerry wrote:
> First update is Dave Schlemko slotting in on D. So now they don't have to drop money on Beauchemin, basically. Schlemko is kind a basic utility defender, not unlike Benn minus the physicality, or like what Davidson maybe aspires to be if he can stick in the NHL.
>
> A classic Bargain Bin pick up for Bergevin... at the cost of a 5th round pick, none can argue with the value. But is the team better? Hmm. Better than not having anybody, sure. 3 years at $2.1M isn't going to cripple the team, no matter what.

It's certainly a great hockey name. I expect to have lots of fun with it. "Oh great, Bergevin just picked up another schlemko for the defense." "Can't expect Price to stop everything with just a bunch of schlemkos to help him out." If only there was a player name Schmendrik who could partner him.

Jim

[Chuck]

So much for a robust pre draft trading period. Rather boring so far

[Gerry]

So here's an update based on a thought floated on TSN tonight...

Drouin ($5.5M) - Draisatl ($12M) - Galchenyuk (??RFA - $5.5M??)
Pacioretty ($4.5M) - Danault ($0.9125M) - Gallagher ($3.75M)

Lehkonen ($0.839167M) - Plekanec ($6M) - Byron ($1.167M)
Martinsen ($0.675M) - Mitchell ($1.2M) - Shaw ($3.9M)

De La Rose ($0.725M)

Schlemko ($2.1M) - Weber ($7.857M$)

Davidson ($1.425M) - Petry ($5.5M)

Beacuhemin (UFA - $1M) - Benn ($1.1M)

Jerabek ($0.925M)

Price ($6.5M)
Montoya ($1.0625M)

Total: $74.138M

(Cap is confirmed now at $75M)

The premise of course is that if you can't sign Radulov and Markov, you basically flip their money into an offer sheet on the most desirable RFA in the game, the Big Center, Draisatl. Now, obviously NHL teams don't do this, right? A sort of collusion/gentlemen's agreement, but also from the ownership a desire to generally not add further to salary inflation around the league.

But I don't know... how many years has it been? How many failed attempts? The Big #1 Center is always out of reach. For like generationS plural now.

The 4 1st round draft picks obviously isn't a problem... the way the Habs draft and develop, they can easily part with those.

Aside from the fact that offer-sheeting Just Isn't Done, the main drawback of course is that the Oilers would probably just match. You can make that contract 7yrs x $12M, and you can fill it with signing bonus money that makes it lockout-proof, full NMC/NTC, everything under the sun. And the Oilers will still match. And Chiarelli will hate you etc.

I say so what. Go offer that deal to Draisatl. Maybe he doesn't want to be second fiddle to Connor McDavid forever. Maybe even if/when the Oilers match, you're still doing a service to 29 other teams in the league, helping to keep them from building a dynasty. Like the way the Hawks have been perpetually handcuffed with those Kane/Toews deals... it doesn't completely stop them, but it definitely complicates their dynastic path, which other GMs shouldn't mind. Having Chiarelli and Oilers fans mad at you isn't that big a deal.

Getting a 21-year old #1 center... well, how else are they going to do it anyway?

The defense has issues to be sure. Price will be ok, Plekanec's money goes to him next year. Is having the #1 center worth trying to figure out that defense problem?

l8r,
Gerry

[Mike]

I wonder if the Habs were to sign Galchenyuk for a reasonable contract,
say $5Mx5 years and then flip him to Edmonton for Draisatl along with
perhaps a draft pick or two. Certainly its not an equal trade however,
it might give Edmonton some cap relief and a legit scoring winger that
would probably end up being a perennial 40G guy on McDavid's wing. Might
be worth exploring.

[TheMadApe]

Well Chiarelli must of read your post. He got rid of Pouliot to open up
space. The rumour was that he was asking for $10 million so $12 would
rattle some chains. I say rattle away.

TMA

[Gerry]

I don't think you'd ever be able to trade for Draisatl. They are looking at having their Crosby/Malkin duo locked in, and I don't think there is any package of any of our players that could get their interest in a trade.

Now, I don't actually think a $12M contract offer would get Draisatl either. No matter how you structure it with clauses and money stacked into annual signing bonuses and all that, they are still going to match. But at least at that point it becomes a question that they have to bounce to ownership and at least think about in terms of financial considerations and their ability to build a contending lineup given some of their other growing salary commits (RNH, Lucic, their top 4 on D, Talbot - they will have to go hmmmm, anyway).

But per TMA's post, I'd say so what, go ahead and rattle the chains anyway. I don't see how other NHL teams wouldn't consider doing this, especially division or conference rivals who would rather not see a dynasty grow in Edmonton. Throw a wrench in their plans, even if that wrench is limited to them having $25M on their two best players. For the Habs, they have the other angle of acute long-term need of a player just such as Draisatl, so why not try to get one. It's supposed to be a competitive league. Compete, ye GMs! Compete *against* eachother.

l8r,
Gerry

[Gerry]

So I heard Bergevin's press conference yesterday. Just to fact check a little, here's where the roster stands today:

Drouin ($5.5M) - Galchenyuk (??RFA??) - xxxx

Pacioretty ($4.5M) - Danault ($0.9125M) - Gallagher ($3.75M)
Lehkonen ($0.839167M) - Plekanec ($6M) - Byron ($1.167M)
Martinsen ($0.675M) - Mitchell ($1.2M) - Shaw ($3.9M)
De La Rose ($0.725M)

xxxx - Weber ($7.857M)
Alzner ($4.625M) - Petry ($5.5M)
Schlemko ($2.1M) - Benn ($1.1M)
Jerabek ($0.925M) - Davidson ($1.425M)

Price ($6.5M)
Montoya ($1.0625M)

Total: $60.26M

(Cap is confirmed now at $75M)

So basically they have $15M to deal with Radulov, Markov, Galchenyuk. Given what they signed Drouin for, I don't see how they would pay Galchenyuk less than Drouin.

Bring them all back price:
Galchenyuk ~$5M - bridge or long term
Markov ~$4M for 2 years
Radulov ~$5.5M for 6 years

I think in this scenario you have to give in to the 2 years request from Markov. But he has to take less money to make up for it. Likewise, in order to bring them all back, you'll have to get creative with term on Radulov's contract. A front-loaded breakdown like 7-7-6-5-4-4 would give term and reduce the cap hit sufficiently. I don't even know if shorter or longer term would appeal more to Galchenyuk.

But it sure doesn't sound like all 3 of these guys can be sold on coming back at these prices.

So it's more likely the team has to let either Markov or Radulov go at this point.

Bergevin sounds really frustrated by this. There aren't really any fallback options. Up front, you can slot Lehkonen into a bigger role and bring in Hudon. Or go bargain binning on the UFA market where there are those crusty vets like Iginla or Jagr, maybe. On D, there are a variety of leftovers, Beauchemins and Fransons and whatnot, nothing that will really help. The slots can still be filled, but not in any way that helps the team improve.

l8r,
Gerry

[Mike]

Good post Gerry. As you suggest, the slots will indeed be filled but,
like you, I don't see how this team will improve and I'm actually
shocked that Price signed his extension. The team assembled in front of
him gets more questionable as the years pass under Bergevin’s tenure.
Last year the team struggled to score goals and unless Bergevin pulls
something out of his sleeve or some other orifice, that need will go
unmet. Last year and for the 4 previous years of Bergevin’s tenure the
team has needed a #1 centre. That's still a gaping hole that will go
unfilled. Starting last year the team needed a legitimate #2 centre and
like the two previous holes this one will still be a hole in October.
Lastly, there was nobody to play as a legitimate #2 defenceman alongside
Shea Weber and in October the team will still have a huge question mark
in that regard. The only “need” that Bergevin seems to have addressed is
the need for more French talent and that need is dubious at best. It
addresses a need as far as the press goes and he did bring in a
legitimate first line player but the team has lost an equally viable
talent in Alex Radulov while ticking off Galchenyuk who now will likely
go to arbitration.

The team is no better than it was last year and I’ll be surprised if it
gets any better. I would have thought Carey Price would have waited to
see how the year panned out before committing himself to what appears to
me to be a team that will jump on his shoulders and ride the Carey Price
bus until its outta gas. Carey Price has locked himself into 8 years of
mediocrity and I'm gobsmacked that he did.

At the start of last year I said that this team was a bubble team that
will go as far as Carey Price will take them. Unless Radulov comes into
the picture (and at this point I'm sure Bergevin's presser put the final
nail in that coffin) this team is just going to muddle along in the same
direction.

As a long time Habs fan, last year was the first year that I had
minimized my expectations for this team. I've always had that optimistic
outlook (some might say rose colored glasses even) but Bergevin's
inability to bring in talent, hold on to young talent, pick the right
coaches has pretty much driven out the last remaining bit of optimism I
have for this team. They're a bubble team that is only a Carey Price
injury away from missing the playoffs. They'll likely make the playoffs
most years and Price may even steal a series, maybe two but the same old
warts (lack of scoring, no centre, no puck moving D) will eventually
doom this team to NHL purgatory.

I'll continue to watch but, like last year, I won't watch as much and I
won't expect much. Maybe in that regard this is where Bergevin has seen
his success. He's tempered the fan's enthusiasm and brought us back to
reality. No longer will the team be invited to camp with the stated goal
to win the Stanley Cup. Success will be measured against making the
playoffs. Because after all, its sooooo hard to get a #1 centre and
build a team in the cap era. Must be nice to have a job where you can
lament how hard it is to do what you are expected to do. Maybe in
another life I'll get lucky and land a gig like that.

[Chuck]

Galchenyuk is still capable of scoring more goals then Danault, Plekanec and Mitchell combined. Danault still has potential but if his stats do not grow is a 3rd liner. Plekanec disappeared for a whole season. Mitchell disappeared after a quarter of the season. Between Plekanec and Mitchell there is 7 million worth of cap space that if moved would free up space to assure Radulov signing and enough for one year solutions to cover the loss of Pleks and Mitchell

[Chuck]

Ekfraud is claiming Chicago has offered Anisomov for Galchenyuk. Not enough! Anisomov is not the center Montreal needs. Almost 7 years older, always struggling to reach 20 goals and or 20 assists. Galchenyuk on Chicago would have little problems hitting 30 goals again and 35+ assists. While Montreal is left again with 1 center who at best might match Galchenyuk's points from the past season backed up by three centers whose efforts to exceed 10 goals will be a struggle

[Mike]

On 2017-07-03 12:38 PM, Chuck wrote:
> Ekfraud is claiming Chicago has offered Anisomov for Galchenyuk. Not enough! Anisomov is not the center Montreal needs. Almost 7 years older, always struggling to reach 20 goals and or 20 assists. Galchenyuk on Chicago would have little problems hitting 30 goals again and 35+ assists. While Montreal is left again with 1 center who at best might match Galchenyuk's points from the past season backed up by three centers whose efforts to exceed 10 goals will be a struggle
>

Agreed. Not even close to enough. I don't know enough about Chicago's
prospects but if they had a grade A centreman in the AHL or a very
promising youngster then maybe. Never straight up.

[Gerry]

On Monday, July 3, 2017 at 12:05:21 PM UTC-4, Mike wrote:
> Agreed. Not even close to enough. I don't know enough about Chicago's
> prospects but if they had a grade A centreman in the AHL or a very
> promising youngster then maybe. Never straight up.

I can totally imagine the Habs preferring Anisimov to Galchenyuk. He'd do that deal in a microsecond and strut around like a peacock claiming that he had landed that Big #1 Center every team covets. They're hard to find, dontcha know.

I think the Hawks just edged themselves below the cap at long last yesterday with their Kruger trade. So they'd have to be confident they could sign Galchenyuk for around the same as Anisimov's $4.55M if they were going to make that trade. And they'd have to be thinking of using Galchenyuk at center too, since they don't have a lot of others.

So frankly, I think the Habs would be all over this, but the Hawks might be forced to balk.

l8r,
Gerry

[Chuck]

Trade would leave the team with no 1st or 2nd line centers with any playmaking skills. Might see more face off wins but nothing else

[John Corbin]

Especially now that Radulov is out of the picture

[Gerry]

On Monday, July 3, 2017 at 1:36:30 PM UTC-4, Chuck wrote:
> Trade would leave the team with no 1st or 2nd line centers with any
> playmaking skills. Might see more face off wins but nothing else

On the bright side, Galchenyuk would be doing the Braveheart "FREEEEEDOM!" shout. That's about all I'm cheering for now. Let the poor lad go, Bergy, for his sake.

l8r,
Gerry

[Gerry]

On Monday, July 3, 2017 at 8:53:35 AM UTC-4, Mike wrote:
>... and I'm actually

> shocked that Price signed his extension.

That part isn't so shocking to me. When there is $84M on the table in front of you, I think it makes a lot of sense to take it. You never know when that next injury comes, or what the numbers are going to be next year.

l8r,
Gerry

[Gerry]

On Monday, July 3, 2017 at 1:39:13 PM UTC-4, John Corbin wrote:
> Especially now that Radulov is out of the picture

I'm not maybe as upset about losing Radulov in terms of personal attachment - I didn't watch a lot of Habs games last year, so even while I recognize his impact and how losing him hurts the team, it's no skin off my back.

But I think it would be really painful to lose Markov too at this point. Although in a dark humour kind of way, it would serve Bergevin right and be a little bit funny. Nevertheless, Markov has been a fixture for so long, was nearing so many great lifetime records, and it would have been really nice to see him retire as a lifelong Hab.

l8r,
Gerry

[Gerry]

And the latest update, nearly done:

Drouin ($5.5M) - Galchenyuk ($4.9M) - Hemsky ($1M)

Pacioretty ($4.5M) - Danault ($0.9125M) - Gallagher ($3.75M)
Lehkonen ($0.839167M) - Plekanec ($6M) - Byron ($1.167M)
Martinsen ($0.675M) - Mitchell ($1.2M) - Shaw ($3.9M)
De La Rose ($0.725M)

xxxx - Weber ($7.857M)
Alzner ($4.625M) - Petry ($5.5M)
Schlemko ($2.1M) - Benn ($1.1M)
Jerabek ($0.925M) - Davidson ($1.425M)

Price ($6.5M)
Montoya ($1.0625M)

Total: $66.16M

(Cap is confirmed now at $75M)

Almost $9M in cap space left, so it'd be hard to argue against just paying Markov.

Flip side, if ever a team was in a position to go nuclear on an RFA offer sheet, couldn't it be the Habs right now? I mean, doesn't somebody sometime have to crack open this self-imposed gridlock on offer sheets? There aren't any UFAs of note available. I'd say there aren't really any RFA defensemen to go after anymore either... Parayko was maybe the best and he filed for arbitration? But there are a ton of young centers. Draisatl, Granlund, Bennett, Johnson, Wennberg, Horvat...

Well, anyway, it seems more like sign Markov and carry a bit of a cushion is what we can expect. I don't see how the Habs have the pieces to trade for a center now that Sergachev is gone and the draft is in the rear view mirror. Some team might be smart to get their claws on the Habs' 1st rounder next year or the year after, however... that could be a juicy top-10 pick, and you can be sure that Bergevin doesn't think so. I wouldn't totally rule out a Duchene deal still, now Galchenyuk has a contract. If anything, the Avs should see how Andrighetto panned out with the move, do a little mental arithmetic on extrapolating the kind of improvement you might get on Galchenyuk in a similar vein, and wow, that's a real good player (better than Duchene). If they can just figure that out, plus sink their claws into a 1st and maybe whoever the Habs' top D prospect is (Juulsen), that's going to be a win for them. While the Habs will spin it as solving their center problem (which in fact it would - or at least be a step closer anyway, even though the price paid was ludicrous).

I went back to the top and tried to read that roster with a blank mind... I mean, I can totally imagine fans of other teams looking at that and seeing a non-playoff team. I don't want to be quite that pessimistic, as I see room for growth for a few players, a vast improvement in coaching, and maybe just maybe they aren't going to be as bad as it looks. But I will understand if prognostications come out predicting the Habs out of a playoff spot. Although again, they are in a lucky spot being in the weakest division in the league probably.

l8r,
Gerry

[TheMadApe]

Foxhole Bergy ain't got the parts to break 'the code' and drop an offer
sheet on Draisatl. As a GM he is not doing everything in his power to
make the team better.

While it is a disaster in the making for BBB, I see opportunity for us
fans. The team is one or two key injuries away from the draft lottery
which has potential stars.

see: http://thehockeywriters.com/2018-nhl-draft-10-prospects-to-watch/

It would also guarantee that BBB is buried in his foxhole along side his
butt buddy.

Postive thoughts! Right?

TMA

[Gerry]

You'd need a certain amount of self-awareness and humility to just accept a playoff miss and top pick, though. I think Bergevin is far more likely to panic as the deadline approaches and trade his top pick for some desperate last-minute help to try to squeeze into the playoffs. :(


l8r,
Gerry

[TheMadApe]

Hopefully he would be fired before he could go full retard.

TMA

[Nyssa]

Doesn't Draisadtl have another year left on his EL contract?
I thought the Oilers re-signed McDavid with a year remaining
on his, so Draisadtl should be in the same position.

So BBB would have to wait until *next* year if he were
foolish enough to try the offer sheet bit.

Which he shouldn't do anyway. But we *are* talking about
MB and his odd way of doing business, so anything is possible.

Nyssa, who is at the point where almost nothing could shock
her as far as MB is concerned

[Nyssa]

Yeah, they might squeeze in with a last-minute blockbuster
deal for a rental, but then crash and burn immediately in
the first round, probably in a sweep or five at the most.

Hmmm, not much different outcome than what's already happened.

Nyssa, who will not be planning a parade route any time soon

[Gerry]

They (most would say foolishly) used Draisatl for half a year before sending him back to junior in 2014-15, so he's actually used up his whole ELC already and is in fact a restricted free agent now.

After decades (!!now *decades*!!) of searching, I would not let the unwritten rule of offer sheets get in my way here, jeez. There is a bona fide BIG, YOUNG, #1 center right there. It costs 4 1sts, a truck load of money, and the eternal enmity of Peter Chiarelli. I think that's a reasonable price to pay. :)

At this point, however, to properly scare the Oilers away from matching, the Habs would also have to find a way to dispose of some other contract. The existing $9M in cap space won't cut it to scare off the Oilers. They'll need at least $12M to even have a small chance. So they'd need to find a way to clear some other salary off the books as well (e.g. trade Plekanec and retain $3M of his salary).

And then they'd have to be smart on contracts forever after with Price, Draisatl, and Weber combining for $30M on the cap!

Sooo... it's still a risky proposition. But I'd boldly go there.

l8r,
Gerry

[Nyssa]

Okay, I had forgotten about the burnt year of his EL contract.

And he's German, which is a big plus in my book. (Gotta stick
up for fellow Germanics, ya know.)

So give it a try. If nothing else, it'll saddle the Oilers
with a huge matching problem like Philly did to the Preds
over Weber. Now we've got him. Ha!

But we are talking about MB, not the boldest GM in the field.

Now if we were talking about Foghorn...errr...Brian Burke,
no doubt the ink would already be drying on that offer sheet.

Nyssa, who would love to add another pet to the team

[Gerry]

A Drouin-Draisatl-Galchenyuk line would be pretty exciting.

I'm not going to hold my breath. :)

l8r,
Gerry

[Mike]

I too would boldly tender an offer sheet but all this talk is for
naught. No way Bergy is pulling that stunt given his propensity to be a
founding member of our Foxhole Gang. He's not going to put himself on
the outs with the GM's in the league by pulling that stunt. Mind you, he
should. He's got the cap space and he's been whining about how hard it
is to land a centre - well here ya go buddy. Here's your chance.

Now, what he could try to do is talk trade with Edmonton. We've got a
great leader here, a perennial 35+ goal scorer in Max Pacioretty. Locked
in for 2 more years @4.5M. Imagine him on McDavid's wing? I'd offer him
up along with a first round pick and Lindberg. I'd sell it as a very
fair trade to Edmonton and as a way of avoiding an offer sheet. If they
turn it down, then I'm offer sheeting him @10M and buying out whoever I
need to buyout to make it happen.

[Gerry]

I honestly don't think there is any trade the Habs could make that would cause the Oilers to blink. There are no 3 players/assets anywhere on the roster or in the system they would take for Draisatl. That's their Crosby/Malkin power duo at stake.

I also think they would match a 7-year $12Mper offer. Even if you made it lockout-proof and NTC/NMC to the max. Load it up however you want, the Oilers *still* probably match.

But just in case they didn't... it couldn't hurt to offer. Draisatl's camp ought to be very open to signing such an offer sheet. It's a lot more than the Oilers seem to be offering atm.

Bear in mind the Habs can't do any buyouts. They have no arbitration cases, and the regular window closed June 30th. They would have to cut the requisite salary with a separate trade (perhaps while retaining salary, eg. to make Plekanec more palatable, etc). So it's not something that is easy or automatic to do. But I'd still go ahead and sign myself up for that challenge if I was in Bergevin's shoes. The challenge of getting a big, young, #1 center seems to be the biggest challenge, dwarfing all others.

l8r,
Gerry

[Gerry]

Markov to the Preds?

Check out who is flanking him at his wedding the other day (two Preds):

http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/montreal-canadiens/p-k-subban-was-at-andrei-markovs-wedding-and-now-were-crying

l8r,
Gerry