5 Stats That Should Make the Montreal Canadiens Worried Moving Forward

[yoyodog]

Paraphrased from
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2247297-5-stats-that-should-make-the-montreal-canadiens-worried-moving-forward/page/2

The Habs just completed their three-game Western Canada road trip, taking
three out of a possible six points to end October.

So, as the calendar flips to November, enjoy this: The Montreal Canadiens
are first in the entire NHL with 17 points.

It has been a great start to the season for the Habs in the win column. And
one would assume that with an 8-2-1 record, the Canadiens shouldn't have
much to worry about statistically. But this isn't necessarily true. The
great start can quickly come to an ugly and abrupt end at any time if these
stats aren't corrected quickly,

When taking a further look at the Canadiens' stats, everything isn't as rosy
as it may seem on the surface. In fact, some of the stats are a little scary
and make you wonder how the Canadiens are, indeed, 8-2-1.

Here are five troublesome stats that the Montreal Canadiens should worry
about as they head into the second month of the NHL season.

1. A terrible Power Play

At this point in the season, the Montreal Canadiens are terrible on the
power play. There's just no other way to put it.

After being shut out with the man advantage on their entire West Coast road
trip, the Canadiens are now 3-for-32 this season. That's a paltry 9.4
percent.

On the road, the numbers look even uglier: 0-for-24.

So what's going on? Well, simply put, the Canadiens are far too predictable
with the man advantage.

The Habs get possession of the puck along the side boards and pass it back
to either P.K. Subban or Andrei Markov. Those two partner pass for a while,
looking for a lane, and when they find one they shoot.

While Subban and Markov might be two of the best power-play quarterbacks in
the league, teams are finding them easy to defend. They simply pressure one
D-man and get in the shooting lane of the other. This is forcing Subban and
Markov to either shoot wide or have their shots blocked.

They need to find other ways to score with the man advantage, and the one
guy they should be looking to is Max Pacioretty.

The Canadiens' 39-goal scorer does have one of the Habs' three power-play
goals this season, but overall, he's just not a big enough part of the
power-play attack. Pacioretty, like all of the Canadiens forwards on the PP,
is being used as more of a setup man instead of taking shots himself.

He's not getting into shooting lanes or scoring positions, and this has to
change. They need their top-scoring forward to be a legitimate threat with
the man advantage, and right now he's not.

If teams start to worry about Pacioretty on the power play, they'll be
forced to rearrange their short-handed scheme. This will, in turn, free up
Subban and Markov on the back end and should create a better all-around
power play.

So far in 2014-15, the Canadiens flat-out stink with the man advantage. This
is a troublesome stat, and one that needs to change if they want to have
continued success this season.

2. First Period Struggles

To say that the Montreal Canadiens are struggling in the first period so far
in 2014-15 would be a giant understatement. When you consider how bad
they've actually been through the first 20 minutes, it's actually incredible
that their record is 8-2-1.

Through 11 games, the Canadiens have allowed 11 goals against in the first
period. Now, that number in itself isn't awful. The problem is that the Habs
just aren't scoring in the first: They have just four goals through 20
minutes all season long.

And when they do score first, they're doing so just once. The Canadiens
scored singles against the Maple Leafs, Lightning, Bruins and Rangers.
That's it. They have yet to score multiple first-period goals in 2014-15.

Their lack of first-period scoring also means that they haven't led after
the first period all season long. In fact, they have been trailing at the
first intermission in six of 11 games.

For whatever reason, the Canadiens are having a hard time with their starts
this season. They just can't seem to bring a lead into the locker room
through 20 minutes. The Habs need to focus on being better in the first
period moving forward.

3. Penalties

The Canadiens are taking way too many penalties this season.

Here's a stat no one would've predicted before the season: After the first
month of the NHL season, the Montreal Canadiens are tied for the league lead
in minor penalties taken.

That's right—the skilled, speedy Habs have taken 52 minor penalties already
this season, which ties them with the Colorado Avalanche for the league
lead. Having played 11 games, this Canadiens are averaging 4.7 two-minute
trips to the penalty box per game.

This number is way too high.

Luckily, the Habs have been bailed out by an excellent penalty-killing unit
that ranks seventh in the league at 86.7 percent. That group has allowed
just six power-play goals against and has even scored once shorthanded.

But taking so many penalties is bound to get you in trouble, as it did
against Vancouver on Thursday night, where Tom Gilbert's unnecessary
interference in the offensive zone led to a Daniel Sedin power-play
game-winner.

The NHL is a league where special teams are often the difference between
wins and losses. While they've had excellent penalty killing to begin the
2014-15 season, the Canadiens are playing with fire by taking so many minor
penalties. They need to find ways to stay out of the box as the season heads
into November.

4. Allowing the 1st Goal

The Canadiens' road trip in Western Canada continued an alarming trend for
the team this season: allowing the opponent to score the first goal.

The Edmonton Oilers scored first. As did the Calgary Flames and then the
Vancouver Canucks. In fact, six of Montreal's eight other opponents have
also managed to score the first goal against the Habs this season.

For those counting, that's nine out of 11. The only times Montreal has
scored first this season were against the Toronto Maple Leafs on opening
night and then against the New York Rangers 17 days later.

This means that the Canadiens have been playing from behind in 81.8 percent
of their games so far this season. Unbelievably, they've somehow managed to
turn that stat into eight wins, 17 points and first place in the entire NHL
(after games on October 30).

Credit has to go out to the players for their resilience. They obviously
believe that they're never out of a game and that they have the ability to
score late.

But this is not a trend that the Canadiens want to continue. They're not
going to be able to pull off comebacks like the ones in Calgary and
Vancouver each and every night. Allowing the other team to score first is
just not a recipe to success in the National Hockey League.

Being scored upon first 81.8 percent of the time is a very alarming
statistic, one that will eventually lead to losses if the Habs don't improve
on it. They need to start playing better early in games.

5. Goals

The Montreal Canadiens are winning games, so they must be scoring lots of
goals, right? Wrong. Very wrong.

After 11 games, the Canadiens have just 26 total goals. Their average goals
per game of 2.36 ranks them 24th in the NHL.

How bad is that number? Just look at the teams who are scoring less, on
average, than the Habs: Calgary, Los Angeles, Winnipeg, Carolina, Florida
and Buffalo.

With the exception of the Kings, who are obviously having goal-scoring
problems of their own, that is not a bunch of NHL teams that you want to be
grouped with unless you're hoping to secure the No. 1 overall pick at the
entry draft.

With Carey Price in goal, there's an obvious magic number of three goals per
game for the Canadiens. Get three goals, and Price, with his 2.48
goals-against average, will usually get you the win.

This season, the Canadiens have scored three goals five times—all wins.
They've scored more than three just twice: four against Toronto and six
against Boston.

This means that in six of 11 games (54.5 percent), the Habs are scoring less
than three goals.

Scoring three goals a game isn't an easy thing to do in the NHL, and it's
not going to happen every night. But it can be done a majority of the time,
and this is what the Canadiens need to strive to do.

If the Canadiens can score three or more goals in more than half of their
games moving forward, they'll continue to be a winning team. But their
current pace of 2.48 goals per game just isn't good enough. It needs to be
improved upon.

[Chuck]

> That's right--the skilled, speedy Habs have taken 52 minor penalties already

> This season, the Canadiens have scored three goals five times--all wins.

> They've scored more than three just twice: four against Toronto and six
> against Boston.
>
> This means that in six of 11 games (54.5 percent), the Habs are scoring less
> than three goals.
>
> Scoring three goals a game isn't an easy thing to do in the NHL, and it's
> not going to happen every night. But it can be done a majority of the time,
> and this is what the Canadiens need to strive to do.
>
> If the Canadiens can score three or more goals in more than half of their
> games moving forward, they'll continue to be a winning team. But their
> current pace of 2.48 goals per game just isn't good enough. It needs to be
> improved upon.

I think the Habs spend too much time counter punching rather then going for the jugular. They need to go to the net quicker once crossing the blueline, they lose any clear lanes to the net when they think perimeter passing first. No use having Eller or Bourque lug the puck across the blue line, because if they don`t go right to the net, they lack the playmaking skills to pass to open linemates, leading to more time on defence then sustained offence. Let Subban lug the puck more, they seem to be holding him back.

I do not understand why MT is hesitant to put Sekac and Bournival into the lineup. If they are trying to showcase Moen, he has enough history in the NHL, platooning him will not hurt his market value

[Jim Bauch]

On Friday, October 31, 2014 8:01:09 AM UTC-7, yoyodog wrote:
> Paraphrased from
> http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2247297-5-stats-that-should-make-the-montreal-canadiens-worried-moving-forward/page/2

Weird article. I was expecting to see "good" statistics that aren't sustainable. But instead the article is pointing to the "bad" statistics and suggesting that yes, if you go all season with a power play under 10% it would be very bad.

With the exception of the last one (goals), these are not things that worry me at all, because they seem like "bad" unsustainable trends. These are reasons why the Habs should get "better," not worse!

The power play is not going to go 9.4% for the season.

The Habs are not going to end up the league's most penalized team.

The other two (bad first periods and giving up the first goal) are essentially the same point, and while they aren't necessarily bound to change, there's a compensating flip side (great third periods and coming back from a deficit). And I see no basis other than willful pessimism to say that the Habs can't possibly keep up the latter but we should worry they'll keep up the former.

The lack of scoring is a legitimate concern -- the Habs just don't have much margin for error in terms of Price being less than great -- but even there the fact that they've been able to score when trailing in the third period (exactly when the opposition is trying hardest to shut them down) is encouraging.

Jim

[Mike]

I'd be lying if I didn't admit there's a little bit of hand wringing
going on on my part. Defensively I still think this team is vulnerable.
The real issue I have is with Gilbert. To play him as a #1 pairing guy
is a mistake. The way I see it is, if you're going to play Markov 25-28
minutes a game and Subban the same, then put them together. It allows
you to spread out the remaining 32-35 minutes a game between 2 pairings
and you can better optimize their minutes.

The pp is something I thing that they will fix. Right now their not
moving themselves enough - their too static. And anytime Pacioretty gets
the puck he's typically in the corner on the goal line. As a defensive
team, I'd let him stand there all night on the pp - I'll cover the
points thank you very much. So I think once they get themselves moving
again and get a body or two in front, the pp should fix itself.

Eller and Bourque are worries for me. Neither one of these guys are
driving the net right now and they simply look like shit when they're
not doing that. Bourque I've given up on. Eller is too young to do that,
yet. I thnk Bourque needs some press box time and Sekac needs to step
back in there to see if he can achieve something.

[Marty]

I find it humerous how often professional Hab writers seem to mock all of
Hab's fandom as unusually demanding and willing to find something to
complain about at all times, yet they seem to do the exact same thing. Of
course, *their* complaining is logical and coherent, whereas the Hab
fanbase (which they usually believe is summed up by the biggest loudmouth
that calls a talk-in show) is that of overzealous, ranting fanatics.

Anyway, the fact is the start has been great. It is unsustainable of
course given some of the above statistics, but then again, I suspect the
team would be bearing down a little harder on some of these issues if they
didn't keep winning.

Back to the games though. It really does seem like there's a search for
the negatives in the Gazette. If you look at all the Hab comebacks, that
should be considered a result of great character. Instead, there's this
obsession about not getting the first goal, which frankly is a bit of a
statical anomaly at this point. Furthermore, would it be better to get the
first goal then lose the game while coughing up 3rd period leads?

Another point. Sometimes it seems like sports writer's hardly think the
Hab's deserve to win unless the they outperform the other team all three
periods. When the win because of goaltending, it is similarly undeserved,
as if Price, a guy they spent a 5th overall pick on, isn't supposed to
occasionally be the best player in the game! Also, the Hab's have played
7 of their first 11 on the road, including a taxing, time-shifting, three-
games-in-four-nights western swing. The first roadtrip was also quite
condensed. If anything, what I see so far is the Habs did shockingly well
results-wise during a tough piece of scheduling. They have some
improvements to make, but have banked a surprisingly high amount of
points, and already put together almost a season's worth of 3rd period
comebacks. I'll agree I don't expect them to go 8-2-1 in every 11 game
stretch, but as Jim points out, I don't expect a 9.4% PP either. What I do
know is 17 of a possible 22 points is in the bank. Don't need to worry
about those!

Marty