Turnover Differential, Jets INTs
JetsLife
is *just how closely* it equates to success.
Last year's differential leaders are a who's who of playoff
participants. The SB participants Pittsburgh & GB ranked 2nd & 4th,
respectively. The two No. 1 seeds NE & Atlanta were ranked 1st & 3rd.
The Jets meanwhile were tied for 5th with four other teams with a +9
margin, led by their 18 forced fumbles good for 2nd in the NFL.
But if the Jets want to win it all, they must improve their INT
differential which was -1 last year. Obviously Sanchez still has room
for improvement, and hopefully he continues his downwards INT tick.
Even just 5 less INTs than last year could have a significant impact
on winning the division/being a No. 1 or 2 seed.
Of note is 7 of Sanchez's 13 picks came in only 3 games led by his
regular-season meltdown in NE. He's got to bear down if he throws an
early pick and not let it affect his play.
But it's our pass defense which arguably must improve more in the INT
dept. Now part of it's sheer math: the more the Jets score, the more
it pressures the opposing offense to pass. So here's hoping the Jets
put up more points than last year. But it mostly comes down to getting
back to the ball-hawking defense of '09.
I don't know last year's INT stats vs. 2009, but I'm near certain the
Jets got significantly less picks. Question is why. Two obvious
factors are the Revis holdout/injury and Wilson's failed integration
in to the secondary. Those things likely had repercussions on the
secondary's cohesion well in to the season.
Other factors: how Pace's & Kris Jenkins' injuries impacted the pass
rush early and throughout (Rex said Pace's foot was only 20% healthy
at the end of last season), and Leonhard's late-season injury. It's
instructive the Jets were torched through the air in NE several days
after Leonhard went down.
Fast fwd to 2011: the starting secondary is intact from day 1 of
training camp; Wilson's no longer a rookie, trained with Revis in the
offseason so could be improved; Pace is healthy; and the d-line has
received an infusion of youth & talent with Wilky, Ellis, Ropati -
Tevaseu too?
May it all add up to an improved defense and more INTs!
Grinch
> No secret turnover differential is key to success. What's interesing
> is *just how closely* it equates to success.
>
> Last year's differential leaders are a who's who of playoff
> participants. The SB participants Pittsburgh & GB ranked 2nd & 4th,
> respectively. The two No. 1 seeds NE & Atlanta were ranked 1st & 3rd.
> The Jets meanwhile were tied for 5th with four other teams with a +9
> margin, led by their 18 forced fumbles good for 2nd in the NFL.
>
> But if the Jets want to win it all, they must improve their INT
> differential which was -1 last year. Obviously Sanchez still has room
> for improvement, and hopefully he continues his downwards INT tick.
> Even just 5 less INTs than last year could have a significant impact
> on winning the division/being a No. 1 or 2 seed.
>
> Of note is 7 of Sanchez's 13 picks came in only 3 games led by his
> regular-season meltdown in NE. He's got to bear down if he throws an
> early pick and not let it affect his play.
>
> But it's our pass defense which arguably must improve more in the INT
> dept. Now part of it's sheer math: the more the Jets score, the more
> it pressures the opposing offense to pass. So here's hoping the Jets
> put up more points than last year. But it mostly comes down to getting
> back to the ball-hawking defense of '09.
>
> I don't know last year's INT stats vs. 2009, but I'm near certain the
> Jets got significantly less picks.
Jets got 12 in 2010, 17 in 2009, league average was 16 both years.
> Question is why.
Lots of factors -- but not to be overlooked among them is that
defensive picks are highly random.
In 2009 when the Saints won the Super Bowl they were at the top of the
league with 26. The next year, last year, they were dead last with all
of 9.
Three of the top six teams by picks in 2010 were below league average
in 2009: Pitt, Atl and Chi.
Since the Jets were unluckily below average last year -- 12 is really
low for a D of their quality -- they'll probably get more this year
just by that, as luck evens out.
ghostwolf
>
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"The dice have no memory."
Grinch
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Yup. Which is why they are most likely to go up to 16, the league
average, from 12. That's a 33% increase.
And being that only about a quarter of teams each year have 12 or
fewer, even with memory-free dice they have a 75% chance of doing
better than 12.
JetsLife
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Interesting. You're certainly right lady luck/randomness plays a role
in sports. Hell in life period. An inch there, an inch here, a gust of
wind, a black cat running on the Shea Stadium infield.
In addition to luck however: I wonder - assume? - there were tangible
factors effecting each team's yr-to-yr INT totals you mentioned. I'm
guessing each team had some personnel changes, issues, continuity
issues, etc. Randomness is a factor, but results don't happen in a
vacuum.
For example without actual reference: I'd bet the Steelers are in the
top 5-10 in INTs and turnover differential annually the past 15 years.
Not their annual average, but each season. It's one reason in the
most? conference title games during that span.
In addition to my original points, hopefully Rex & Pettine recently
expressing the following will lead to more Jets INTs:
Cromartie seeking to get his hands on receivers more (big if - he was
mostly atrocious v Giants Mon. night. This said he is a solid corner);
entire secondary returning intact from day 1; Eric Smith as the
confirmed starter; a return to some exotic and zone coverages from '09
and less man to man.
JetsLife
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Grincher where do you get your stats - I often want to find such stats
but can't find an adequate source.
Johnny Morongo
> On Aug 30, 2:34 pm, Grinch<oldna...@mindspring.com> wrote:
>> On Aug 30, 7:37 am, ghostwolf<patrickfal...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>> On Aug 30, 5:28 am, Grinch<oldna...@mindspring.com> wrote:
>>
>>>> On Aug 29, 2:23 pm, JetsLife<JetsL...@aol.com> wrote:
>>
>>>>> No secret turnover differential is key to success. What's interesing
>>>>> is *just how closely* it equates to success.
>>
>>>>> Last year's differential leaders are a who's who of playoff
>>>>> respectively. The two No. 1 seeds NE& Atlanta were ranked 1st& 3rd.
>>>>> rush early and throughout (Rex said Pace's foot was only 20% healthy
>>>>> at the end of last season), and Leonhard's late-season injury. It's
>>>>> instructive the Jets were torched through the air in NE several days
>>>>> after Leonhard went down.
>>
>>>>> Fast fwd to 2011: the starting secondary is intact from day 1 of
>>>>> training camp; Wilson's no longer a rookie, trained with Revis in the
>>>>> offseason so could be improved; Pace is healthy; and the d-line has
>>>>> Tevaseu too?
>>
>>>>> May it all add up to an improved defense and more INTs!- Hide quoted text -
>>
>>>> - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
>>
>>>> - Show quoted text -
>>
>>> "The dice have no memory."- Hide quoted text -
>>
>>> - Show quoted text -
>>
>> Yup. Which is why they are most likely to go up to 16, the league
>> average, from 12. That's a 33% increase.
>>
>> And being that only about a quarter of teams each year have 12 or
>> fewer, even with memory-free dice they have a 75% chance of doing
>> better than 12.- Hide quoted text -
>>
>> - Show quoted text -
>
> Grincher where do you get your stats - I often want to find such stats
> but can't find an adequate source.
As usual, Life, Grinch's numbers are fictions. He'll stoop to any level
to prove a point.
Grinch
> On 9/1/2011 12:51 PM, JetsLife wrote:
> >
> > Grincher where do you get your stats - I often want to find such stats
> > but can't find an adequate source.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ makes all your wishes come true.
Their "play index" search utility covers full play-by-play data for every game back to the 1920s or something like that.
> As usual, Life, Grinch's numbers are fictions. He'll stoop to any level
> to prove a point.
That too!
Sometimes the back hurts a bit, but I take my pills.
Johnny Morongo
<g>
Grinch
> Interesting. You're certainly right lady luck/randomness plays a role
> in sports. Hell in life period. An inch there, an inch here, a gust of
> wind, a black cat running on the Shea Stadium infield.
>
> In addition to luck however: I wonder - assume? - there were tangible
> factors effecting each team's yr-to-yr INT totals you mentioned.
Sure, of course. In the long run the best Ds get the most picks ... usually.
That's why I said the Jets were unlucky to get only 12. A well above-average D like the Jets D will probably get more than the 16 picks that is is average.
BUT...
> I'm guessing each team had some personnel changes, issues, continuity
> issues, etc. Randomness is a factor, but results don't happen in a
> vacuum.
... still, there's *a lot* of randomness in picks, so in any given year the best D team may have only 9, while two years ago Buffalo had 28.
It's because picks are relatively rare events. Conisder triples in baseball. Good hitters with speed are likely to get the most of them, and do over the long run, career-spans.
But in any single instance the luck of the bouncing ball dominates. So in the short run, over periods from a game to a season, some .220 hitter may be the King of Triples.
The thing is that in the NFL picks decide a whole lot more games than triples do in MLB.
> For example without actual reference: I'd bet the Steelers are in the
> top 5-10 in INTs and turnover differential annually the past 15 years.
> Not their annual average, but each season. It's one reason in the
> most? conference title games during that span.
Here's the Steelers D ranking for Int% for the 10 years from 2010 backward to 2001, via PFR.com: 9, 26, 5, 30, 8, 22, 6, 18, 14, 19.
That's an average rank of 15.7, when exact league average would be 16.5.
When you see a single organization with as much coaching and player continuity as the Steelers being ranked so up-and-down: 9th, 26th, 5th, 30th, 8th, 22nd, 6th, etc., you are seeing *a lot* of randomness.
Heck's becks, during the entire decade they didn't have even two consecutive seasons in either the top half or bottom half of the league. That's up and down!
For the record, they had 167 picks over the ten years while the average for all 32 teams was 163.
Now ... damn ... where are my Doan's Pills?