Hope for the Jets
Copp
unsightly numbers of 57.6, 79.5, 66.4, 82.5 and 49.1. The only exception
was a firing-range workout against Jacksonville (in 2007) during which
Brady hit the target on 26 of 28 tries for three touchdowns, no picks
and an otherworldly rating of 141.4. Excluding that performance, Brady’s
last five postseason games have produced a 2-3 record, eight touchdown
passes, 10 interceptions and a cumulative rating of 66.6, the last a
number that would be highly understandable were we talking about, say,
Mark Sanchez."
http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/massarotti/2011/01/do_jets_just_hate_brady_or_fea.html
Grinch
"In his last six playoff starts, Brady has posted ratings including
the unsightly numbers ..."
For his whole career, Brady's playoff numbers are just barely above
the average for all playoff QBs. Yet the Patriots' record in those
games is 14-4.
Which could lead one to the conclusion that QBs don't actually win
games, *teams* do.
The reverse of course is Peyton, who four times in the playoffs has
put up numbers better than the average winning playoff QB but lost --
no other QB in the last 15 years has lost more than one such game.
But Peyton can't complain entirely. Ironically, during the post-
season in which "he" won the Super Bowl, in two playoff games he put
up numbers worse than the average losing playoff QB, and in a third
game put up below-average numbers -- yet the Colts won all three,
obviously. For once in his life his team carried him, all the way to
collect his ring.
And what did everyone say then, after Peyton had put up by far the
worst post-season numbers of his career? "Peyton Manning has finally
matured to be able to win the big game."
Here are numbers for playoff QBs for the last 15 years:
http://community.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/playoff-qbs-who-carry-their-teams-and.html
The Jets' problem this week isn't Brady, it's the Patriots.
Grinch
For the record, here's how PFR.com described this phenomenon:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=549
"Manning's 2006 playoffs cemented his status as one of the greatest
QBs of all time because he finally got his ring -- but it certainly
wasn't because of his awe inspiring stats. Manning had the *least*
impressive post-season stat line of *any* Super Bowl winning QB,
*ever*. "
From which we can see how much:
1) We can believe expert pundits.
2) "Clutch play" wins championships.
3) QBs win championships.
> Here are numbers for playoff QBs for the last 15 years:
>
> http://community.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/playoff-qbs-who-carry-t...
JetsLife
The Jets have hope because of the Jets. Not because of Brady and his
team.
I'm guessing Brady's recent sub-par outings had something to do with
the opposing defenses and sometimes missing key players (see Ravens'
destruction of Brady/the Pats last year with no Welker, Giants' in the
SB, etc).
Likewise the Jets defense must be at its very best for the Jets to
have a shot at winning. With no key offensive players missing it will
be near impossible to stop the Pats offense. But hopefully the Jets
defense can slow it down some. Maybe via forcing several FGs instead
of TDs, a turnover or two (obviously unlikely), etc.
But it'll be up to the entire team, especially so the offense. The
Jets' hopes for winning resides with themselves.
MZ
>
> The Jets' problem this week isn't Brady, it's the Patriots.
Meh, it's not that QBs are overrated, it's that QB stats are
overrated.
As most of you probably know, since he entered the league I've been
watching Brady as closely as anyone. And, in my opinion, one of his
best playoff games as a pro -- no, one of his best games, period --
was vs. San Diego in '06. This was probably one of the "bad" ones you
guys reference, statistically. I don't remember the stats, but I'm
positive they were bad.
Context, Grinch. Watch this game and it'll blow your entire
statistics world to smithereens.
Grinch
>
> - Show quoted text -
Well, I haven't watched that game recently. But I do remember that
Brady threw his third pick in it when down a TD late in the 4th Q,
horribly right into the arms of the SD safety. Which would have left
the Pats dead and buried -- except the dumbass decided to showboat
with the ball and fumbled it back.
I don't know if that qualifies as the sort of great clutch QB play
that makes up for bad stats, like the prior two picks, but if you
wish.
MZ
It was a game where the Patriots, as a team, were horribly overmatched
and outplayed in every single facet. The running game was
nonexistent, the offensive line couldn't pass protect, and the
receivers played exactly how you'd expect starters Reche Caldwell and
Jabar Gaffney (picked up on the waiver wire weeks before) to play.
Add to that the fact that SD's defense was firing on all cylinders for
most of the game. The only guy who showed up to play was Brady, and
they won solely because of him (and, as you alluded to, Troy Brown's
strip...which was a heady play by Brown as much as it was
"showboating" by the defender). Yup, football's a team sport. But
every now and then there's a game where an individual completely
transcends the rest of the factors that usually influence the
outcome. Brady was that guy that day. There are few other players
that I'd say that about (Ray Lewis probably being the most frequent).
It was one of his best games as a pro. I'm not sure I've seen him
duplicate that performance since, and that includes several 40 and 50
point games from the historic '07 season on.
Here, I'll say this much. If Brady plays like he did that day, and
the rest of the team plays only mediocre, the Pats win the game Sunday
by two scores.