(Semi-OT) Interesting blurb on Belichick's decision
Adam Smith
read discussing Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth down
against the Colts on Sunday night:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
I thought it was a dumb move at the time, but after reading that I'm
convinced Belichick actually made the right call.
Howard Brazee
<adamc...@fastmail.us> wrote:
>http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
>
>I thought it was a dumb move at the time, but after reading that I'm
>convinced Belichick actually made the right call.
Even Freakonomics got on this:
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/16/bill-belichick-is-great/#more-21859
--
"In no part of the constitution is more wisdom to be found,
than in the clause which confides the question of war or peace
to the legislature, and not to the executive department."
- James Madison
KG
> I'd never heard of Advanced NFL Stats until I found a link on a blog I
> read discussing Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth down
> against the Colts on Sunday night:
>
>
> I thought it was a dumb move at the time, but after reading that I'm
> convinced Belichick actually made the right call.
nice link.
Adam Smith
The whole site is pretty cool. Back in September they did a big
analysis of fourth down decisions and basically showed that most
coaches are way too conservative on fourth down:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html
The last part of it has a chart showing what the "average" team should
do on fourth down by field position and yardage to go. Basically it
says to always go for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter, or on 4th-and-4 or
shorter if you're outside of your own 40 yard line.
Howard Brazee
<adamc...@fastmail.us> wrote:
>The whole site is pretty cool. Back in September they did a big
>analysis of fourth down decisions and basically showed that most
>coaches are way too conservative on fourth down:
>
>http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html
>
>The last part of it has a chart showing what the "average" team should
>do on fourth down by field position and yardage to go. Basically it
>says to always go for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter, or on 4th-and-4 or
>shorter if you're outside of your own 40 yard line.
There's a high school that goes for it on fourth down virtually every
time. Google it if you're interested.
Adam Smith
> I'd never heard of Advanced NFL Stats until I found a link on a blog I
> read discussing Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth down
> against the Colts on Sunday night:
>
>
> I thought it was a dumb move at the time, but after reading that I'm
> convinced Belichick actually made the right call.
Bill Simmons makes the opposite case in his column for this week. He
mostly talks about the things that the statistics don't capture, like
the fact that the Patriots went with a spread formation that ruled out
a play-action pass or a screen or anything tricky that would have kept
the Colts' defense off balance:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmonsnflpicks/091120