Projecting the 2004 Compensatory Draft Picks
AdamJT13
something nobody else has ever attempted (to my knowledge) – to
project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. Last
year, I got 26 of the 32 comp picks exactly right – going to the
correct team in the correct round – and was off by only one round on
four others. That was an improvement over 2002, when I got 22 correct
and was off by one round on two others. I've done a great amount of
research this year in hopes of getting more than 26 correct, but it's
such a difficult task that I'd settle for 24 or more (75 percent or
better).
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that
lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The
number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory
free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are
determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and
postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by
the formula.
Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying
compensatory picks awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined
that the primary factor in the value of picks awarded is the average
annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with
only small adjustments for playing time (I use games played and games
started as a general estimate) and postseason honors. A simple method
of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be
compensated is, for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of
similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for
$2 million per season and loses two free agents, one who got $1.8
million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team
will be compensated for the $4 million player. One thing my research
this year has led me to believe is that the placement of comp picks
can be adjusted when a team's cancellations aren't equal. In the above
example, the comp pick for the $4 million player would be slightly
downgraded. If the $2 million player signed had cancelled out a $2.5
million player lost, then the comp pick for the $4 million player
would be slightly higher than it otherwise would be.
It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it
doesn't suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those
type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the
normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks added if fewer
than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been six of these type of
comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free
agents lost was more than twice the combined value of free agents
signed. In all six cases, those teams lost the same number of
qualifying free agents as they signed. However, I no longer believe
that having an equal number of qualifying free agents lost and signed
is necessary for this type of comp pick – a team could get one even if
it signed more qualifying players than it lost, as long as the net
value of the players lost was at least twice as much (or so) as the
net value of the players signed. That affects one team this year,
Pittsburgh, which signed two qualifying players (Todd Fordham and
Clint Kriewaldt) and lost only one (Wayne Gandy), but Gandy's value
($4.17 million per season, 16 games started) was more than twice the
combined values of Fordham and Kriewaldt (a combined $1.586 million
per season, with 26 games played and six games started).
I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to
project the results of the actual (highly secret) compensatory picks
formula, which I'm sure is more precise and complicated than my simple
simulation. I don't pretend to know the actual formula. But I think
previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been
a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was
voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released
by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which
ended on July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have
been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign
for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have
been released by his new team before a certain point in the season
(which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a
certain amount of playing time.
Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp
equation was Patrick Johnson, who signed for $625,000 per season and
played in nine games, starting six. The highest-paid player who did
not qualify was Rabih Abdullah, who signed for $642,000 per season and
played in 16 games, starting none. To determine the approximate cutoff
points for this year's comps, I raised last year's cutoffs by the
percentage increase in the salary cap from 2002 to 2003, which was
5.49 percent. That means a player whose playing time in 2003 was equal
to Patrick Johnson's in 2002, and who signed for about $659,300 per
season, should qualify for the equation. But a player whose playing
time in 2003 was equal to Rabih Adbullah's in 2002, and who signed for
$677,200 per season, should not qualify. Determining whether players
who signed for $650,000 to $700,000 per season qualify is one of the
most difficult tasks when trying to project the comps. There were five
players on the bubble this year – Patrick Johnson (again), Olandis
Gary, Cameron Spikes, Don Davis and Chris Hetherington. I've projected
that Johnson ($680,000, 16 games played/2 games started), Gary
($692,500, 13/0) and Spikes ($675,000, 16/16) will qualify, but Davis
($685,600, 15/0) and Hetherington ($655,000, 14/1) will not. As a
full-time starter who signed for more than $659,300 per season, Spikes
should be a lock to qualify. Johnson and Gary had quite a bit of
playing time on offense (Johnson had more catches than he had last
year). But Davis and Hetherington primarily were special-teams
players, like Abdullah was in 2002.
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the
equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is
determining the value range for each round. No third-round picks have
been awarded since 2002, when both players for whom those comps were
awarded signed for more than $5.8 million per season. Last year,
regardless of playing time or postseason honors, fourth-round comp
players got $3.5 million to $5.03 million, fifth-round comp players
got $3 million to $3.4 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.43
million to $2.41 million and seventh-round players got $1.46 million
or less. When determining the ranges for this year's comps, I again
used a 5.49-percent increase over last year's levels and adjusted for
playing time, postseason honors and inequalities in cancellations of
other players. The ranges for my projections ended up as $3.75 million
to $5.4 million for the fourth round, $1.75 million to $2.5 million
for the sixth round and $1.5 million or less for the seventh round.
I'm projecting that, once again, no third-round picks will be awarded.
And no comp picks fell within the fifth-round range in my projection.
As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if
fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are
given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an
eighth round. If there are 26 true comps, for example, the NFL would
give additional picks to the teams that would have the first six picks
in the eighth round, if there were one.
By my calculations, there will be 31 true compensatory picks (three
of them based on net value differential) and one non-compensatory pick
awarded this year. Here are the projected picks, along with the
compensatory player, their games played/started and average contract
value –
THIRD ROUND
None
FOURTH ROUND
Philadelphia (Hugh Douglas, 16 GP/16 GS, $5.4 million)
Cincinnati (Takeo Spikes, 16/16, $5.33 million)
St. Louis (Dre Bly, 14/14, $4.9 million)
Philadelphia (Shawn Barber, 16/16, $4.29 million)
New York Jets (Randy Thomas, 16/16, $3.95 million)
Tennessee (John Thornton, 16/16, $3.75 million)
FIFTH ROUND
None
SIXTH ROUND
Baltimore (Jeff Blake, 13/13, $2.5 million)
San Francisco (Chike Okeafor, 16/16, $2.0 million)
St. Louis (Ernie Conwell 10/10 Injured Reserve, $1.75 million)
SEVENTH ROUND
New York Jets (John Hall, 16, $1.43 million)
New Orleans (Ken Irvin, 16/8, $1.5 million)
New York Jets (Richie Anderson, 15/8, $1.03 million)
St. Louis (Ricky Proehl, 16/2, $1.01 million)
New York Jets (James Darling, 16/0, $1.04 million)
Philadelphia (Doug Brzezinski, 1/0, $1.33 million)
Tennessee (Donald Mitchell, IR, $930,000)
Houston (Keith Mitchell, 3/2, $1.0 million)
Tennessee (Kevin Dyson, 1/0, $1.0 million)
St. Louis (Jeff Zgonina, 16/3, $887,500)
Baltimore (Sam Gash, 16/10, $780,000)
Oakland (Jon Ritchie, 16/9, $773,000)
Philadelphia (Brian Mitchell, 16/0, 887,500)
Baltimore James Trapp (5/0 IR, $786,000)
Jacksonville (Todd Fordham, 11/6, $793,000)
New England (Terrell Buckley, 16/5, $780,000)
Jacksonville (Stacey Mack, 8/5 IR, $735,600)
Denver (Izell Reese, 13/9 IR, $727,000)
Denver (Olandis Gary, 13/0, $692,500)
Chicago (net value; lost 2/2 IR, $4.32 million; signed 15/15, $1.51
million)
Green Bay (net value; lost 47/31, $9.943 million; signed 56/18, $3.792
million)
Pittsburgh (net value; lost 16/16, $4.17 million; signed 26/6, $1.586
million)
New York Giants (non-compensatory)
Last year, four of the comp picks I projected were off by one
round. The highest fifth-rounder in my projection ended up being the
lowest fourth-rounder, and the three highest seventh-rounders in my
projection ended up being the three lowest sixth-rounders. This year,
it's possible that the comps for Douglas, Takeo Spikes and maybe Bly
could be third-rounders, that the comps for Thornton and maybe Thomas
(and, very remotely, Blake) could be fifth-rounders, and that the
comps for Hall and Irvin could be sixth-rounders.
I also made one cancellation mistake last year, canceling a $3.19
million player signed with a $2.24 million player lost for St. Louis,
instead of canceling a $1.2 million player lost. As a result, I was
off by two rounds on the Rams' comp pick (I said a seventh, they got a
fifth). The most questionable cancellation this year involves
Cincinnati, which signed four players and lost five. Their two
highest-paid losses were Takeo Spikes ($5.33 million) and Cory Hall
($2.45 million). Their two highest-paid signings were Thornton ($3.75
million) and Kevin Hardy ($3.6 million). I had Thornton canceling Hall
and Hardy canceling Lorenzo Neal ($1.4 million), and I downgraded the
comp pick for Spikes because of the unequal cancellations. If the NFL
instead determined that Thornton and Hardy canceled out Hall and
Spikes, the Bengals should get a seventh-round comp pick for Nicholas
Luchey (11/2, $1.0 million).
If I am wrong about any of the five bubble players – Patrick
Johnson, Olandis Gary, Cameron Spikes, Don Davis and Chris
Hetherington – it will affect the comp picks awarded. Also, Keith
Mitchell could be excluded from the equation because he was waived on
Nov. 27. However, that was after Week 12, and no player released after
Week 10 has ever been eliminated from the equation when he otherwise
would qualify. I'm pretty confident that Mitchell will qualify, but
it's possible that he won't.
If Patrick Johnson does not qualify, Jacksonville will not get a
seventh-round comp for Stacey Mack, and San Diego will get a
non-compensatory seventh-round pick after the Giants' non-compensatory
pick.
If Olandis Gary does not qualify, Denver will not get a seventh for
him, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh after the
Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
If Cameron Spikes does not qualify and Keith Mitchell does, Houston
will not get a seventh for Mitchell, and San Diego will get a
non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
If Keith Mitchell does not qualify, and regardless of whether
Cameron Spikes qualifies or doesn't qualify, Houston will not get a
seventh for Mitchell, and Jacksonville will get a seventh for Wali
Rainier (16/0, $915,000), probably between the comps for Jon Ritchie
and Brian Mitchell.
If both Patrick Johnson and Keith Mitchell do not qualify, and
regardless of whether Cameron Spikes qualifies or doesn't qualify,
Houston will not get a seventh for Mitchell, Jacksonville will get a
seventh for Rainier instead of Mack, and San Diego will get a
non-compensatory seventh after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
If Don Davis does qualify, New England will not get a seventh for
Terrell Buckley, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh
after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
If Chris Hetherington does qualify, Oakland will not get a seventh
for Jon Ritchie, and San Diego will get a non-compensatory seventh
after the Giants' non-compensatory seventh.
In any combination of the above scenarios that would add more than
one non-compensatory pick, the teams that would get one after San
Diego's are, in order, Oakland, Arizona, Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta,
Jacksonville, Houston and Washington. Also, if any of the projected
"net value" comps are not awarded, that will increase the number of
non-compensatory picks added.
This year's compensatory picks should be awarded sometime around
April 1. After they're announced, I'll try to review what the NFL did
and where my projections were incorrect (although I've already
presented some other possibilities).
--AdamJT13
Greg Lentz
>For the third straight year and fourth overall, I've attempted to do
>something nobody else has ever attempted (to my knowledge) – to
>project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award.
[snip rest of always great annual post]
Quick theoretical question.
I looked up last year's compensatory picks and the highest awarded was a
fourth round pick. A lot of the stories on Terrell Owens suggested that
he might net a third round pick, which I thought sounded high given last
year's compensatory picks. Obviously, he never made it to free agency,
but I was wondering if you thought that he might have netted a third or
fourth round pick?
Greg Lentz
Razz
"AdamJT13" <Adam...@msn.com> wrote in message
> The most questionable cancellation this year involves
> Cincinnati, which signed four players and lost five. Their two
> highest-paid losses were Takeo Spikes ($5.33 million) and Cory Hall
> ($2.45 million). Their two highest-paid signings were Thornton ($3.75
> million) and Kevin Hardy ($3.6 million). I had Thornton canceling Hall
> and Hardy canceling Lorenzo Neal ($1.4 million), and I downgraded the
> comp pick for Spikes because of the unequal cancellations. If the NFL
> instead determined that Thornton and Hardy canceled out Hall and
> Spikes, the Bengals should get a seventh-round comp pick for Nicholas
> Luchey (11/2, $1.0 million).
Wait ... if I understood that correctly, wouldn't you thne have no cancellation
for Lorenzo Neal??
Granted, it would still be a 7th round comp pick, but it might affect your
calculations somewhere else.
Rob Berryhill
@msn.com says...
> This year's compensatory picks should be awarded sometime around
> April 1. After they're announced, I'll try to review what the NFL did
> and where my projections were incorrect (although I've already
> presented some other possibilities).
>
>
> --AdamJT13
Holy crap, Adam! Thanks again for your great posts.
--
Rob Berryhill
AdamJT13
>
> Quick theoretical question.
>
> I looked up last year's compensatory picks and the highest awarded was a
> fourth round pick. A lot of the stories on Terrell Owens suggested that
> he might net a third round pick, which I thought sounded high given last
> year's compensatory picks. Obviously, he never made it to free agency,
> but I was wondering if you thought that he might have netted a third or
> fourth round pick?
>
According to the reports, the NFL would have given the 49ers a
special compensatory pick in this year's draft because of the deadline
fiasco with his contract (the NFL changed the deadline that was in his
contract). It wouldn't have been a normal comp pick, so they could
have given whatever was deemed appropriate. They did the same thing
with the Chester McGlockton situation a few years ago, when the
franchise tag rules were changed after the Raiders had already tagged
McGlockton.
--AdamJT13
AdamJT13
Neal would get canceled out by Reggie Kelly ($1.7 million). Maybe I
should have mentioned all of the Bengals' qualifying players signed
and lost, to clarify that. The others are Carl Powell (signed at
$865,000) and Gus Frerotte (lost at $950,000).
--AdamJT13
Greg Lentz
Actually, this was assuming that he had a competent agent and had filed
for free agency properly. I didn't think there was any way we would have
gotten more than a 4th round compensatory pick in that situation, which is
why the Ravens deal is satisfactory to me.
Greg Lentz
AdamJT13
team in the correct round, just like last year. (I was correct on 24
of the 27 normal comp picks this year.) I was off by one round on two
others, both of which I noted as being possible.
I noted five players on the bubble for qualifying, and I projected
that three would and two would not. I was wrong on one of them (Don
Davis, who did qualify), but I correctly projected that the Patriots
wouldn't get a comp pick if he qualified, and that San Diego would get
a supplemental comp pick.
The one player who surprisingly didn't qualify was Zach Wiegert. He
was on the NFL's list of official UFAs at the beginning of the
free-agency period, and was on the official list of signings at the
end of the free-agency period. He signed in the proper time period and
for $3.41 million per season, and he started 14 games. After the comp
picks were announced, I went back and re-examined Wiegert's contract
information to see why he wouldn't qualify. I discovered that although
his contract expired after the 2002 season, that was only because the
team had renegotiated it late in the 2002 season and his previous
2003-2005 contract years were eliminated. Evidently, renegotiating a
contract to make it shorter disqualifies a player from the equation,
just as being cut would. (However, a player who voids the remainder of
his contract isn't eliminated from the equation.)
Also, I need to re-examine the "net point differential" comp picks
awarded after the regular comp picks. Only one of the three I
projected was awarded, and one was awarded (Tampa Bay) that I didn't
project. I thought Chicago would get one, but Rosevelt Colvin's injury
apparently reduced his point value more than I anticipated. I also
took a gamble by projecting that the Steelers would get one, even
though no team that had signed more players than it lost had ever
gotten one before. They didn't get one, which was disappointing for my
projections, but is good to know for the future.