Projecting the 2003 Compensatory Draft Picks
AdamJT13
something nobody else has ever attempted (to my knowledge) – project
all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. Last year, I
got 22 of the 29 true comp picks exactly right – going to the correct
team in the correct round – and was off by only one round on two
others. My main mistake was not setting the minimum salary to qualify
for the comp equation high enough. Had I set the minimum high enough,
I would have gotten 25 of the 29 true comps correct, along with all
three of the "filler" comps (or additional non-compensatory picks).
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that
lose more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires. The
number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory
free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are
determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and
postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by
the formula.
Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying
compensatory picks awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined
that the primary factor in the value of picks awarded is the average
annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with
only small adjustments for playing time (I use games played and games
started) and postseason honors. A simple method for determining for
which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is, for every
player signed, to cancel out a lost player of similar value. For
example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per
season and loses two free agents, one who got $1.9 million per season
and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated
for the $4 million player.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been
a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired after the
previous season (ie., he cannot have been released by his old team);
he must sign during the UFA signing period (which normally ends on
July 15); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June
1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a
certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been released
by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to
be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of
playing time.
Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp
equation was Patrick Hape, who signed for $577,000 per season and
played in 15 games, starting eight. The highest-paid player who did
not qualify was Larry Izzo, who signed for $568,700 per season and
played in 16 games, starting none. That would put the minimum value,
regardless of playing time, somewhere around $573,000. To determine an
approximate minimum for this year's comps, I raised last year's
$573,000 minimum by the percentage increase in the salary cap from
2001-2002, which was 5.48 percent. That puts the minimum at about
$604,000 for this year's comps.
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the
equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is
determining the value range for each round. Last year, both players
for which third-round comps were awarded got more than $5.8 million
per season, fourth-round comp players got $4 million to $4.6 million,
fifth-round comp players got $3 million to $3.6 million, sixth-round
comp players got $1.52 million to $2.5 million and seventh-round
players got $1.15 million or less. You'll notice that between each
round, there was a gap of at least $370,000 and as much as $1.2
million. That makes it difficult to know exactly where the line was
between the rounds. To determine the ranges for this year's comps, I
again used a 5.48-percent increase. That put the values at $6.12
million or more for third-rounders, $4.22 million to $4.85 million for
fourth-rounders, $3.16 million to $3.8 million for fifth-rounders,
$1.6 million to $2.637 million for sixth-rounders and $1.21 million or
less for seventh-rounders. I also noted that, two years ago, the
highest-paid player for which a seventh-round comp was awarded got
$1.29 million per season. Even if the maximum value for
seventh-rounders didn't increase from 2001 to 2002, a 5.48-percent
increase this season would put the seventh-round range at $1.36
million or less. Seven of the players for which comp picks should be
awarded this season have average contract values that fall in between
those ranges. For those players, I assumed that the comp would be for
the lower of the two rounds if their value was below that of last
year's lowest-paid comp player in the higher round. If their value was
equal to or greater than last year's lowest-paid comp player in the
higher round, their comp would also be in the higher round unless the
player was a non-starter. So, in essence, here are the ranges I used
for this season's comp picks -- $5.8 million or more for the
third-round, $4.22 million to $5.79 million for the fourth round, $3
million to $4.21 million for the fifth round, $1.6 million to $2.99
million for the sixth round and $1.59 million or less for the seventh
round.
The NFL now awards 32 compensatory picks each season. If the comp
equation results in fewer than 32 picks being awarded, the NFL awards
"non-compensatory" picks to reach the maximum of 32. Those picks are
awarded, in order, to the teams who would be drafting if there was an
eighth round. If there are 26 true comps, for example, the NFL would
give additional picks to the teams who would have the first six picks
in the eighth round, if there was one.
By my calculations, there will be 29 true compensatory picks and
three non-compensatory picks awarded this year. Here are the picks,
along with the compensatory player, their games played/started and
average contract value –
THIRD ROUND
None
FOURTH ROUND
Philadelphia (Jeremiah Trotter, 12 GP/12 GS, $5.033 million)
Tampa Bay (Warrick Dunn, 15/14, $4.75 million)
Jacksonville (Kevin Hardy, 16/15, $4.6 million)
Baltimore (Duane Starks, 10/10, $4.6 million)
FIFTH ROUND
Seattle (Todd Weiner, 16/15, $3.5 million)
Miami (Kenny Mixon, 16/16, $3.4 million)
St. Louis (Az-Zahir Hakim, 10/10, $3.2 million)
Chicago (Walt Harris, 15/15, $3.0 million)
Baltimore (Lional Dalton, 16/13, $3.0 million)
SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (Jerome Pathon, 14/13, $2.519 million)
N.Y. Giants (Ron Stone, 15/15, $2.288 million)
Miami (Brian Walker, 10/8, $2.0 million)
Arizona (Michael Pittman, 16/15, $1.75 million)
SEVENTH ROUND
Green Bay (Bill Schroeder, 14/13, $1.479 million)
Miami (Lamar Smith, 11/11, $1.433 million)
N.Y. Giants (Greg Comella, 12/7, $1.458 million)
N.Y. Giants (Joe Jurevicius, 15/3, $1.581 million)
Miami (Terry Cousin, 16/16, $1.281 million)
St. Louis (Jeff Robinson, 0/0 Injured Reserve, $1.2 million)
Kansas City (Victor Riley, 14/2, $1.038 million)
Baltimore (Corey Harris, 14/0, $1.035 million)
St. Louis (Robert Holcombe, 8/0, $1.088 million)
St. Louis (Rod Jones, 0/0 Injured Reserve, $1.001 million)
Green Bay (Allen Rossum, 14/0, $1 million)
Green Bay (Barry Stokes, 16/16, $718,000)
N.Y. Giants (Morton Andersen, 14, $775,000)
Green Bay (BillyJenkins, 15/1, $738,000)
Baltimore (Patrick Johnson, 9/6, $625,000)
Tampa Bay (Rabih Abdullah, 16/0, $642,000)
Cincinnati (non-compensatory)
Detroit (non-compensatory)
Chicago (non-compensatory)
As I mentioned earlier, there were seven players whose contract
values fell in between the calculated ranges for each round. Those
players are Trotter, Harris, Dalton, Schroeder, Smith, Comella and
Jurevicius. It would not be out of question for Trotter's comp to be
in the third round; for Harris' and/or Dalton's comps to be in the
sixth round; or for Schroeder's, Smith's, Comella's and Jurevicius'
comps to be in the sixth round. However, the NFL tends to be stingy
with comp picks, so it's probably unlikely that many of them will move
up from my projection.
There are six players who were on the borderline for counting or
not counting in the comp equation – Jacquez Green, Rabih Abdullah,
Mikhael Ricks, Bobby Shaw, Eric Ogbogu and Greg Favors. I've projected
that Green and Abdullah will count, but the other four will not.
Green was cut by Washington on November 13, which was after Week 10
of the regular season. No player who has been cut before Week 10 has
been included in the comp equation, but in 2001, Eric Bjornson was
included even though he was cut by New England right after Week 10. If
Green is not included in the equation, Tampa Bay will not get a
seventh-round comp for Rabih Abdullah, and Washington will get a
sixth-round comp for Cory Raymer.
Abdullah signed for $642,000 per season. That should be enough to
qualify for the equation, even though he never started. But if he does
not qualify, Tampa Bay will not get a seventh-rounder for him, and
Chicago will get a sixth-rounder for Tony Parrish.
If neither Green nor Abdullah counts, Tampa Bay will get no comp
picks, Washington will get a sixth for Raymer and Chicago will get a
sixth for Parrish.
Ricks signed for $550,000, which I don't think will be enough to
qualify, even though he started 12 games. If he does qualify, Kansas
City will get a seventh-round comp for him and Chicago will not get a
non-compensatory pick in the seventh round.
Shaw signed for $554,000 and started 10 games. But, like Ricks, I
don't think he made enough to qualify. If he does, Pittsburgh will get
a fifth-rounder for Earl Holmes, and Jacksonville will not get a
fourth-rounder for Kevin Hardy.
Ogbogu signed for $600,000 per season and played in 12 games but
started none. If he does qualify for the equation, the Jets will get a
seventh-rounder for Ogbogu and Chicago will not get a non-compensatory
pick in the seventh.
Favors was cut on Nov. 8, before Week 10. If he does count in the
equation, Indianapolis will not get a sixth-rounder for Pathon and
either Houston or Arizona will get a non-compensatory pick in the
seventh (Houston will get it unless the Texans are ineligible because
they already have seven extra picks for being an expansion team).
If Ricks and Favors count but Ogbogu doesn't, Kansas City will get
a seventh for Ricks, Indianapolis will not get a sixth for Pathon,
Chicago will keep its non-compensatory pick and neither Houtson nor
Arizona will get a non-compensatory pick.
If Ogbogu and Favors count but Ricks doesn't, the Jets will get a
seventh for Ogbogu, Indianapolis will not get a sixth for Pathon,
Chicago will keep its non-compensatory pick and neither Houtson nor
Arizona will get a non-compensatory pick.
If Ogbogu and Ricks count but Favors doesn't, the Jets will get a
seventh-rounder for Ogbogu, Kansas City will get a seventh for Ricks
and neither Chicago nor Detroit will get a non-comp in the seventh.
If Ogbogu, Ricks and Favors all count, the Jets will get a seventh
for Ogbogu, Kansas City will get a seventh for Ricks, Indianapolis
will not get a sixth for Pathon and Chicago will not get a non-comp in
the seventh.
This year's compensatory picks should be awarded sometime around
April 1. After they're announced, I'll try to review what the NFL did
and where my projections were incorrect (although I've already
presented some other possibilities).
--AdamJT13
Barry
Can you take a look at my Taxes when you're done?
Seriously, you put more work into these sorts of things than most of
us. I for one appreciate it.
Barry
Fred Goodwin, CMA
news:ot977v8b2nu1vbjes...@4ax.com:
> Can you take a look at my Taxes when you're done?
> Seriously, you put more work into these sorts of things than most of
> us. I for one appreciate it.
Ditto -- I'm not a draft-nik, but I do appreciate the work Adam puts into
his analysis.
--
Hanlon's Razor:
"Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity."
Skeptic's Creed:
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."
Venger
"AdamJT13" <Adam...@msn.com> wrote in message
news:2b5b7ff6.03031...@posting.google.com...
> For the second straight year and third overall, I decided to do
> all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. Last year, I
> team in the correct round - and was off by only one round on two
> others.
Resume scanning the neutral zone...
Venger
AdamJT13
the correct round, with many of them in exactly the same order.
I was off by one round on four picks -- I projected the highest
fifth-rounder for Seattle, and they got the last fourth-rounder; and
the first three seventh-rounders I projected (Green Bay, Miami and the
Giants) were the last three sixth-rounders (Giants, Green Bay, Miami).
Rabih Abdullah did not count in the equation after all. In my post,
I explained that if he did not count, Tampa wouldn't get a
seventh-rounder for him and Chicago would get a sixth-rounder for Tony
Parrish, and that's exactly what happened.
The only pick that I really missed was the second fifth-rounder for
St. Louis (I gave them another seventh-rounder). I had Jamie Duncan
($2.24 million per year) canceling out London Fletcher ($3.185 million
per year), but the NFL had Duncan canceling out one of the Rams'
seventh-round comp players.
--AdamJT13