Projecting the 2005 Compensatory Picks
Adam...@msn.com
project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. In each
of the past two years, I got 26 of the 32 comp picks exactly right --
going to the correct team in the correct round -- and was off by only
one round on four other comp picks in 2003 and two others in 2004.
(Last year, of the first 28 comp picks awarded, I had 25 exactly right
and two others off by only one round.) My goal for this year is to get
more than 26 correct, but it's such a difficult task that I'd
settle for 24 or more (75 percent or better).
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose
more or better com-pensatory free agents than they acquire. The number
of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free
agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are
determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and
postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by
the formula.
Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the
compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993,
I've determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks
awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed
with his new team, with only small adjustments for playing time (I use
games played and games started as a general estimate) and postseason
honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents
a team will be compensated is, for every player signed, cancel out a
lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one
qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two free agents,
one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per
season, the team will be com-pensated for the $4 million player.
It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it
doesn't suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those
type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the
normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added
if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been eight of these
type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the
free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of
the free agents signed. In all eight cases, those teams lost the same
number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has ever been
awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than they
lost. This year, I don't project any of these "net value" comp
picks being awarded.
I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project
the results of the actual (highly secret) compensatory picks formula,
which I'm sure is more precise and complicated than my simple
simulation. I don't pretend to know the actual formula. But I think
previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a
true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided
after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his
old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended on
July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been
tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at
least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been
permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the
season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a
certain amount of playing time. One potential qualifying player this
year, Mike Compton, was released by Jacksonville on Sept. 5 and then
re-signed on Sept. 23. Because players who were released and re-signed
by the same team in the past have qualified for the comp equation, I am
projecting that Compton will qualify this year.
Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp
equation was Cameron Spikes, who signed for $675,000 per season and
started all 16 games. The highest-paid player who did not qualify was
Chris Hetherington, who signed for $655,000 per season and played in 14
games, starting one. To determine the approximate cutoff points for
this year's comps, I raised last year's cutoffs by the same
percentage as the increase in RFA tenders from 2003 to 2004, which was
3.8 percent. That means a player whose playing time in 2004 was equal
to Cameron Spikes' in 2003, and who signed for about $700,650 per
season, should qualify for the equation. But a player whose playing
time in 2004 was equal to Chris Hetherington's in 2003, and who
signed for $679,890 per season, should not qualify. Determining whether
players who signed for $660,000 to $700,000 per season qualify is one
of the most difficult tasks when trying to project the comps. There
were three players on the bubble this year -- Jermaine Wiggins
($660,000 per season, 14 games played, 13 games started), Matt
O'Dwyer ($685,000, on PUP list, then four games played, zero started)
and Bobby Hamilton ($685,000, 16 GP/15 GS). I've projected that all
three players will qualify for the equation, based on their playing
time (and for O'Dwyer, because significant injuries haven't lowered
players' value in the equation in the past). Also, since the minimum
salary for veterans of seven to nine seasons rose by only $5,000 from
2003 to 2004 (from $655,000 to $660,000), and since that minimum is
very close to the minimum needed to qualify for the comp equation,
it's possible that the minimum value needed to qualify also rose by
only $5,000 or so. That would make it more likely that the bubble
players did qualify for the equation.
Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the
equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is
determining the value range for each round. Last year, regardless of
playing time or postseason honors, the one third-round comp player got
$5.33 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $3.95 million
to $5.4 million, the only fifth-round comp player got $3.75 million,
sixth-round comp players got $1.75 million to $2.5 million and
seventh-round players got $1.5 million or less. When determining the
approximate ranges for this year's comps, I again used a 3.8-percent
increase over last year's levels and adjusted for playing time and
postseason honors. Conveniently, there were gaps near the cutoff points
for almost every round. For example, there were no comps for any
players between $3.52 million (almost certainly a fifth-rounder) and
$4.17 million (almost certainly a fourth-rounder). The one place where
there is the biggest question is between the third and fourth rounds --
in particular, the comps for Bert Berry ($5.0 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
and Damien Woody ($5.17 million, 16/16). I've projected that both of
them will be fourth-round comps, although they could end up being
third-rounders (one Denver newspaper has even reported that the Broncos
would get a third-rounder). However, in each of the past two years,
there have been players who signed for more than $5 million per season
and were worth only fourth-round comps, so that's where I'm
projecting those two. One factor could be Ian Gold being released by
the Buccaneers and being re-signed by the Broncos. He had signed for
$5.464 million and, if the Broncos' comp pick was for him instead of
Berry, that might have been a third-round pick. But because he was
released, he made only $2 million for one season. Since the Broncos
signed two low-value qualifying players and lost three players, their
comp will be for their highest-value player lost, which would be Berry.
And I don't think Berry's contract is large enough to merit a
third-round pick, despite his great season. But I could be wrong, and I
could be with Woody, too.
Like Gold, another qualifying player who was released after one year of
his contract was Mario Edwards. He signed for $2.78 million per season,
but because he was released, he made only $1.5 million for one season.
In the cases of Gold and Edwards, I'm projecting that their releases
will play a part in determining their contract values, based on what
happened in 1998 with Lester Holmes. In 1997, he signed for $1.765
million per season. But he was cut after making only $296,240 for one
season. Because he signed $1.765 million per season, he qualified for
the equation. But his value seems to have been based on the amount he
actually made before being released, since he was part of the "net
value" comp Oakland got in 1998. The Raiders had signed Holmes and
Des-mond Howard ($1.43 million), and they had lost Kevin Gogan ($2.08
million) and Michael Jones ($1.5 million). If Holmes' full value had
been used, the difference in combined values of players lost and signed
wouldn't have been anywhere close to that which would be needed to
merit a net value comp. But with the smaller value used for Holmes, the
value of the players lost was more than double the combined value of
the players signed, which would merit the net value comp. Since the
rules regarding cases such as these (or any other case, for that
matter) have never been revealed, I can only base my projections on
what has happened in previous years. And since Holmes' release after
the season seems to have been taken into account, I am projecting that
the same will be true for Gold and Edwards. But again, I could be
wrong.
As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer
than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given,
in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth
round. If there are 26 true comps, for example, the NFL would give
additional picks to the teams that would have the first six picks in
the eighth round, if there were one. This year, though, I'm
projecting that there won't be any non-compensatory picks needed. By
my calcu-lations, there will be 32 true compensatory picks awarded. In
fact, there could have been a 33rd (for Jermaine Wiggins), if there
wasn't a limit of 32. Here are the projected picks, along with the
compensatory player, their games played/started and their average
contract value --
THIRD ROUND
Tennessee (Jevon Kearse, $7.83 million, 14 GP/14 GS)
Kansas City (John Tait, $5.61 million, 13/13)
St. Louis (Grant Wistrom, $5.5 million, 9/9)
FOURTH ROUND
Denver (Bert Berry, $5.0 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Tampa Bay (Warren Sapp, $5.23 million, 16/16)
New England (Damien Woody, $5.17 million, 16/16)
Indianapolis (Marcus Washington, $4.17 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Tennessee (Robaire Smith, $4.39 million, 16/16)
FIFTH ROUND
New England (Ted Washington, $3.5 million, 16/16)
Carolina (Jeno James, $3.52 million, 14/14)
Philadelphia (Carlos Emmons, $3.3 million, 15/15)
Carolina (Reggie Howard, $3.62 million, 15/3)
San Francisco (Jason Webster, $3.01 million, 10/9)
Philadelphia (Bobby Taylor, $2.95 million, 10/0)
Oakland (Charlie Garner, $2.91 million, 3/3 IR)
SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (David Macklin, $2.6 million, 16/16)
St. Louis (Brian Young, $2.51 million, 15/15)
Carolina (Deon Grant, $2.42 million, 16/16)
Dallas (Ebenezer Ekuban, $2.52 million, 16/11)
Baltimore (Marcus Robinson, $2.25 million, 16/7)
Oakland (Matt Stinchcomb, $1.9 million, 16/16)
Philadelphia (Bobbie Williams, $1.75 million, 16/16)
SEVENTH ROUND
San Francisco (Tai Streets, $1.5 million, 13/12)
Seattle (Reggie Tongue, $1.33 million, 16/16)
St. Louis (John St. Clair, $1.3 million, 14/14)
Dallas (Mario Edwards, $1.5 million, 15/3)
San Francisco (Travis Kirschke, $1.6 million, 16/1)
St. Louis (David Loverne, $867,000, 15/13)
Philadelphia (Marco Coleman, $785,000, 16/16)
Seattle (Willie Williams, $760,000, 16/10)
New England (Bobby Hamilton, $685,000, 16/15)
Cincinnati (Matt O'Dwyer, $685,000, PUP 4/0)
Last year, two of the comp picks I projected were off by one round. The
highest fourth-rounder in my projection ended up being the only
third-rounder, and the lowest fourth-rounder in my projection ended up
being the only fifth-rounder. This year, it's possible that the comp
for Wis-trom could be a fourth-rounder, the comps for Berry and Woody
could be third-rounders, the comps for Webster, Taylor and Garner and
Edwards could be sixth-rounders, and the comps for Stinchcomb and
Bobbie Williams could be seventh-rounders. The other comps, if they are
awarded for the players I've indicated, should be in the correct
rounds.
If I am wrong about Mike Compton qualifying or any of the three bubble
players -- Bobby Hamilton, Matt O'Dwyer and Jermaine Wiggins --
qualifying, it could affect the comp picks awarded.
If Mike Compton does not qualify, New England would not get a
seventh-round comp for Bobby Hamilton, and Carolina would get a
seventh-rounder for Jermaine Wiggins (if he qualifies).
If Bobby Hamilton does not qualify, New England would not get a
seventh-round comp for Hamilton, and Oakland would get a
seventh-rounder for Rick Mirer.
If neither Mike Compton nor Bobby Hamilton qualifies, New England would
get neither a fifth-round comp for Ted Washington nor a seventh-rounder
for Hamilton, and Carolina would get a seventh-rounder for Jermaine
Wiggins (if he qualifies), and Oakland would get a seventh-rounder for
Rick Mirer.
If Matt O'Dwyer does not qualify, Cincinnati would not get a
seventh-round comp for him, and Tampa Bay would get a seventh-rounder
for Cornell Green.
If Jermaine Wiggins does not qualify, any scenario in which Carolina
would have gotten a seventh-round comp for him would instead result in
San Francisco getting a non-compensatory pick after the seventh-round
comp picks.
If Jermaine Wiggins' value is determined to be higher than Matt
O'Dwyer's value, Carolina would get the 32nd comp pick instead of
Cincinnati, and all of the above scenarios in which Carolina would have
gotten a seventh-round comp would instead result in Cincinnati getting
a seventh-rounder (in this case, Carolina already would have one). But
even if Wiggins' value would be higher than O'Dwyer's value, if
O'Dwyer does not qualify, Carolina would not have the 32nd comp pick
because Tampa Bay would get a seventh-rounder for Cornell Green.
Carolina would then be in the same situation as above, needing another
team's comp pick to be eliminated in order to receive a
seventh-rounder for Wiggins.
In the event that fewer than 32 true comp picks are awarded, the first
seven teams in line to re-ceive non-compensatory picks would be San
Francisco, Cleveland, Miami, Oakland, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Tennessee,
in order.
This year's compensatory picks should be awarded soon. After
they're announced, I'll try to review what the NFL did and where my
projections were incorrect (although I've already presented some
other possibilities).
--AdamJT13
(Posted to usenet for future reference)
Rob Berryhill
Adam...@msn.com says...
[ . . . S N I P . . . ]
> I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project
> the results of the actual (highly secret) compensatory picks formula,
> which I'm sure is more precise and complicated than my simple
> simulation. I don't pretend to know the actual formula. But I think
> previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.
>
Awesome information as usual, Adam. Thanks!
--
Rob Berryhill
observer
news:1111426548.6...@o13g2000cwo.googlegroups.com...
>
> For the fourth straight year and fifth overall, I've attempted to
> project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award.
>
> In each of the past two years, I got 26 of the 32 comp picks
> exactly right -- going to the correct team in the correct round --
> and was off by only one round on four other comp picks in
> 2003 and two others in 2004.
>
> (Last year, of the first 28 comp picks awarded, I had 25 exactly
> right and two others off by only one round.) My goal for this year
> is to get more than 26 correct, but it's such a difficult task that
> I'd settle for 24 or more (75 percent or better).
>
>
> --AdamJT13
>
> (Posted to usenet for future reference)
Thanks for the projections.
---
Allan Guyton
<Adam...@msn.com> wrote:
> I got 22 of 32 correct, plus six others within one round (five of which
> I said were possible). Obviously, I didn't hit enough of the cutoff
> points between rounds, and I was wrong about two of the three bubble
> players (Matt O'Dwyer and Jermaine Wiggins). And I was wrong about
> Cornell Green (.700, 0/0) counting in the comp equation.
I wouldn't think he'd have any comp value- when's the last time he
played for the Cowboys?
The man IS 65, after all...
Seriously, thanks for the good info. As always!
Allan
observer
news:1111509680.6...@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
>
> I got 22 of 32 correct, plus six others within one round (five
> of which I said were possible). Obviously, I didn't hit enough
> of the cutoff points between rounds, and I was wrong about
> Wiggins). And I was wrong about Cornell Green (.700, 0/0)
> values for Ian Gold and Mario Edwards after they were cut.
>
> Still, the NFL didn't do anything that can't be explained, which
> is always a good thing.
>
Good job.
Dallas got -2- 6th round draft picks:
6th round -- 34 -- pick 208
6th round -- 35 -- pick 209
---
March 21, 2005
NFL awards 32 compensatory draft choices
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/8314832
---
Adam...@msn.com
I said were possible). Obviously, I didn't hit enough of the cutoff