Projecting the comp picks
AdamJT13
picks are announced, but after days of research, I have come up with a
projection for what comp picks will be awarded this year. It's not a
simple task, I assure you. The compensatory formula has never been
revealed, and the components are only described by the NFL as being
"salary, playing time and postseason honors." However, I have been
tracking comp picks since they were first awarded in 1993 and I think
I've got a pretty good handle on how they're determined. If, after the
comps are announced, it turns out that I've missed the mark on some of
them, I can probably explain where I went wrong. I tried this once
before (in 1998), when I had much less accurate salary information,
limited free agency data and a significantly lesser understanding of
the comp formula, and the results were somewhat encouraging. (I
projected 23 comps; the NFL awarded 19. I had 15 of them going to the
correct team, with 10 going to the correct team in the correct round
and three more off by one round.) Now that I have much more reliable
data, I've decided to give it another shot.
For those who aren't familiar with comp picks, here's a quick primer
from the NFL itself: "Under terms of the NFL Collective Bargaining
Agreement, a team losing more or better compensatory free agents than
it acquires in a year is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks.
The number of picks a team receives equals the net loss of
compensatory free agents up to a maximum of four. ... (The)
compensatory picks will be positioned within the third through seventh
rounds based on the value of the compensatory free agents lost.
Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary,
playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the
NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club
is covered by this formula."
A couple of things should be noted. First, the only players who are
eligible for the formula are those who are contractual Unrestricted
Free Agents -- they're free agents because their contracts expired.
Players who were cut don't qualify for the comp equation as a "player
lost" for their old team or a "player signed" for their new team. And
some players who begin the free-agency period as a qualifying player
don't end it that way. (There is something called a June 1 qualifying
offer that could come into play and disqualify a player from the
equation.) Second, it is possible for a team to get a comp pick if it
signs and loses the same number of players, if the players it lost
"were ranked higher than the ones (it) signed by a specified point
differential" (the NFL's words, not mine). These have always come in
the seventh round, after the comp picks awarded to teams who had a net
loss. And third, the NFL in recent years has always awarded the
maximum number of comps allowed by the Collective Bargaining Agreement
(32 this year). If the formula results in fewer than the maximum
allowable number of comps, then it awards "non-compensatory" picks to
the teams that would be drafting if there was an eighth round, until
the maximum number of comps has been reached. For example, if the
formula results in only 28 true comp picks this year, the NFL will
also award non-comp picks to Houston, Carolina, Detroit and Buffalo.
To project this year's comp picks, I began with the NFL's official
list of free agent signings as of the end of the 2001 free-agency
period. (There were 93 Unrestricted Free Agents who changed teams.) I
then recorded each player's contract terms -- length, average value,
first-year cash value, etc. -- making sure to note when a contract was
extremely backloaded or inflated by dollar amounts that would never be
paid (for example, a large roster bonus in a future season that was
included only to ensure that the player would be released at that
time). I also recorded each player's playing time using the only
information available: games played and games started. And I noted any
"postseason honors," such as being selected to the Pro Bowl or being
named All-Pro. Using all of this data for each player signed and lost
by each team, I was able to estimate the players for which teams would
be compensated. And by comparing this information to the same
information for compensatory free agents from 1998-2001, I was able to
come up with what I hope is a fairly accurate projection for this
year's comps.
The NFL doesn't publicly attach names to specific comp picks, but I've
done so with my projected comps for the benefit of those who might be
interested. I've projected the full 32 comps, including "non-comp"
picks for Washington and Detroit, who each signed as many players as
they lost, but who signed much less valuable players than they lost.
(Washington lost Brad Johnson, Derek Smith, Albert Connell, James
Thrash and Ndukwe Kalu, among others, but signed no one for more than
$1 million per year. Detroit's major loss was Jeff Hartings.)
ROUND THREE
Buffalo (Marcellus Wiley)
ROUND FOUR
Baltimore (Priest Holmes)
Minnesota (Dwayne Rudd)
Tennessee (Kenny Holmes)
Green Bay (Ross Verba)
ROUND FIVE
San Francisco (Charlie Garner)
Miami (Richmond Webb)
Baltimore (Kim Herring)
Seattle (Pete Kendall)
Miami (Trace Armstrong)
ROUND SIX
Baltimore (Jeff Mitchell)
Dallas (James McKnight)
Dallas (Leon Lett)
ROUND SEVEN
Seattle (Jay Bellamy)
Atlanta (Dan Stryzinski)
New York Giants (Christian Peter)
Jacksonville (Mike Logan)
San Francisco (Brentson Buckner)
Jacksonville (Bryan Barker)
Arizona (Mark Smith)
Buffalo (Donovan Greer)
Tampa Bay (Tyoka Jackson)
New York Giants (Pete Mitchell)
Buffalo (Marcus Spriggs)
Tampa Bay (Patrick Hape)
Tampa Bay (Don Davis)
San Francisco (Monty Montgomery)
San Francisco (Jason Kyle)
Jacksonville (Daimon Shelton)
Atlanta (Terry Cousin)
Washington (net value differential)
Detroit (net value differential)
Feel free to ask any questions or offer any criticism. Sometime after
the comps are announced -- and I suspect that they might be announced
later today (Monday) -- I'll try to post a follow-up that might help
explain what the NFL did. (As if that's always possible.)
--AdamJT13
Bob
"AdamJT13" <Adam...@msn.com> wrote in message
news:2b5b7ff6.02040...@posting.google.com...
will
ROUND THREE
Buffalo (Marcellus Wiley)
ROUND FOUR
Baltimore (Priest Holmes)
Minnesota (Dwayne Rudd)
Green Bay (Ross Verba)
ROUND FIVE
Tennessee (Kenny Holmes)
San Francisco (Charlie Garner)
Miami (Richmond Webb)
Baltimore (Kim Herring)
Seattle (Pete Kendall)
Miami (Trace Armstrong)
ROUND SIX
Baltimore (Jeff Mitchell)
Dallas (James McKnight)
ROUND SEVEN
Dallas (Leon Lett) Seattle (Jay Bellamy)
Greg Lentz
>I'm probably setting myself up to be slammed after the compensatory
>picks are announced, but after days of research, I have come up with a
>projection for what comp picks will be awarded this year. It's not a
>simple task, I assure you. The compensatory formula has never been
>revealed, and the components are only described by the NFL as being
>"salary, playing time and postseason honors." However, I have been
>tracking comp picks since they were first awarded in 1993 and I think
>I've got a pretty good handle on how they're determined. If, after the
>comps are announced, it turns out that I've missed the mark on some of
>them, I can probably explain where I went wrong. I tried this once
>before (in 1998), when I had much less accurate salary information,
>limited free agency data and a significantly lesser understanding of
>the comp formula, and the results were somewhat encouraging. (I
>projected 23 comps; the NFL awarded 19. I had 15 of them going to the
>correct team, with 10 going to the correct team in the correct round
>and three more off by one round.) Now that I have much more reliable
>data, I've decided to give it another shot.
Adam, I have a question for you regarding the above. Someone posted the
below theory regarding signing free agents before or after June 1st and
how it affects compensatory draft picks. Do you think this theory holds
any water?
"I know compensatory picks do not come out of the draft pool. NFL uses a
complex formula that nobody knows or understands. They count the number of
FA a team lost, the number they added, the salaries of the FA lost and
gained, the contributions of FA lost and gained, etc to count the # of
picks. One thing they also do is to keep track only up to a certain point
- I think the draft day or June 1st is the deadline. So if you lose a
number of your own FA before June 1st and sign a number of equally
talented, salaried FA after June 1st, then you are sure to get a number of
compensatory draft picks as the FA you lost would be used in the formula,
but not the ones you gained. So it is best we lose Schulters before the
deadline and sign all others' FA, that we want to sign, after the
deadline."
Greg Lentz
AdamJT13
>
> Adam, I have a question for you regarding the above. Someone posted the
> below theory regarding signing free agents before or after June 1st and
> how it affects compensatory draft picks. Do you think this theory holds
> any water?
>
> "I know compensatory picks do not come out of the draft pool. NFL uses a
> complex formula that nobody knows or understands. They count the number of
> FA a team lost, the number they added, the salaries of the FA lost and
> gained, the contributions of FA lost and gained, etc to count the # of
> picks. One thing they also do is to keep track only up to a certain point
> - I think the draft day or June 1st is the deadline. So if you lose a
> number of your own FA before June 1st and sign a number of equally
> talented, salaried FA after June 1st, then you are sure to get a number of
> compensatory draft picks as the FA you lost would be used in the formula,
> but not the ones you gained. So it is best we lose Schulters before the
> deadline and sign all others' FA, that we want to sign, after the
> deadline."
>
That's partly true, in a sense. I mentioned the "June 1 qualifying
offer" in my original post. To qualify as a compensatory free agent, a
player who signs after June 1 must have received a qualifying offer
(essentially, 110 percent of his previous salary) from his former team
for that team to have any claim to him. (For example, if he gets a
qualifying offer and doesn't sign elsewhere by the end of the UFA
signing period, his rights revert back to his old team.) If an
unsigned UFA doesn't receive a qualifying offer from his previous team
by June 1, he is no longer "their" free agent. If that player then
signed with another team, he wouldn't count as either a "player
signed" by his new team or a "player lost" by his old team in the comp
equation. So that poster is somewhat correct in that a team could
maximize its comp picks by signing only players who were cut or who
did not receive qualifying offers from their previous teams.
Where did you read that post, by the way?
--AdamJT13
Greg Lentz
I participate in a 49ers mailing list where this theory came up. It
didn't sound quite right to me as posed (which is that it's better to have
your own free agents signed before June 1 and sign your guys after June 1,
whether they are other teams' cuts or free agents who may/may not have
received a qualifying offer.
Since you nailed 100% of the 49ers' compensatory picks, I figured you were
the best person to ask. Your post has shed much light on the subject.
Thanks,
Greg Lentz
Greg Lentz
>Greg Lentz <nodam...@owl-post.net> wrote in message news:<lajkauoi89nk5qjkh...@4ax.com>...
> That's partly true, in a sense. I mentioned the "June 1 qualifying
>offer" in my original post. To qualify as a compensatory free agent, a
>player who signs after June 1 must have received a qualifying offer
>(essentially, 110 percent of his previous salary) from his former team
>for that team to have any claim to him. (For example, if he gets a
>qualifying offer and doesn't sign elsewhere by the end of the UFA
>signing period, his rights revert back to his old team.)
Follow-up question. When does the UFA signing period end?
Greg Lentz
Fred Goodwin, CMA
@posting.google.com:
> ROUND SIX
> Baltimore (Jeff Mitchell)
> Dallas (James McKnight)
> Dallas (Leon Lett)
In case nobody noticed, Dallas was indeed awarded two comp picks in the 6th
round. Damn fine work, Adam.
--
Hanlon's Razor:
"Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity."
Skeptic's Creed:
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."
Allan Guyton
> Adam...@msn.com (AdamJT13) wrote in news:2b5b7ff6.0204010322.4ccdf147
> @posting.google.com:
>
> > ROUND SIX
> > Baltimore (Jeff Mitchell)
> > Dallas (James McKnight)
> > Dallas (Leon Lett)
>
> In case nobody noticed, Dallas was indeed awarded two comp picks in the 6th
> round. Damn fine work, Adam.
Definitely good work, as Adam's work always is. If only we had more Leon Letts
to lose to faltering teams, we could own the entire 6th round!
Allan