Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand has his sports media predictions for 2012.

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http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2011/12/19/Media/Sports-Media.aspx

Published December 19, 2011, Page 12

The past year in sports media was dominated by industry-changing
rights deals. That trend will continue next year, as the BCS, Big
East, NFL, MLB and NASCAR look to cut deals. It’s not much of a
prediction to say that most will see significant increase in the
average annual payout — that surely will happen — but here’s how I see
the year shaking out.

NBC picks up new NFL package: The NFL will add up to four additional
games to NFL Network starting next season, giving it a total of 12
games. The move will help the league finally close a carriage deal
with Time Warner Cable. NFL Network’s added games will overlap with an
eight-game Thursday-night package that will generate a lot of
interest. My bet is that the new package winds up on NBC Sports
Network, though Turner could snatch it.

MLB leaves Fox: MLB will consolidate its rights with one media company
rather than continue with its current structure across three networks:
ESPN, Fox and TBS. NBC will make a big push to win the rights. But my
guess is that the league opts for ESPN in a deal that will finally
include the same TV Everywhere components that other leagues have
rolled out. Keeping Turner involved in some form can’t be counted out;
think of the NBA’s deal with ESPN and Turner. I wouldn’t be surprised
to see some playoff games land on MLB Network, but look for most of
the playoffs to be on ESPN (with, maybe, some on TBS) and the World
Series to air on ABC.

No NASCAR deal gets signed: NASCAR ratings will continue to see an
uptick, especially with Danica Patrick appearing in more races, but
networks will hold off on renewing their rights deals until 2013.
Network executives aren’t going to be looking at the overall
viewership. Rather, the networks want to see if NASCAR is able to win
back the young-male demographic. If those numbers stay low, the
sanctioning body will not see an increase in its next television deal.

NBC picks up Big East rights: At an industry conference earlier this
month, NBC Sports Group’s Jon Litner announced to a crowd of college
officials: “We are open for business.” NBC’s first chance to prove
that will be with the Big East Conference, which spurned a proposed
ESPN extension earlier this year. ESPN will submit a bid, and Fox will
kick the tires — but my bet is that NBC lands the Big East rights.

ESPN retains the BCS: ESPN’s four-year, $495 million deal for the BCS,
signed in 2008, changed the industry. That was the moment when rights
holders and networks realized that cable channels’ dual revenue
streams of advertising and affiliate fees are needed to afford these
kinds of rights fees. Those rights will be negotiated again in 2012,
and I expect Fox to make a strong bid to win them back. The BCS has
been a huge success for ESPN, though, and I expect Bristol to break
the bank to keep the games. Look for the BCS to agree to a plus-one
game during these negotiations, too.

Fox keeps the Dodgers’ rights: The Los Angeles Dodgers will take their
rights to the open market. Time Warner Cable will make a strong bid.
It’s a long shot, but DirecTV could swoop in and make a bid, too.
Still, I see Fox doing whatever it takes to keep the Dodgers’ rights.
Why Fox? Earlier this month, former Fox Cable President Bob Thompson
told a bankruptcy hearing that Prime Ticket’s existence would be
threatened if it lost the Dodgers. That’s a good incentive for Fox to
keep the rights.

TWC Sports will struggle for distribution: Time Warner Cable’s planned
RSNs in Los Angeles will launch on TWC and DirecTV this fall, but the
channels will have a hard time finding other distributors unless the
channels get the Dodgers (and I don’t think they will).

Quick hits: Despite the lockout, the NBA will see its viewership rise
through the playoffs. … Golf ratings on CBS, NBC and Golf Channel will
be up 20 percent in 2012. Thanks, Tiger. … Fox’s UFC deal will be a
success, bringing a huge number of young viewers to the network, which
will average around 7 million viewers for its four fights. … Neither
DirecTV nor Dish Network will carry the Pac-12’s planned channels.

Those are my predictions for 2012. I expect you to hold me to them.