OT Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
agaxxan
The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according
to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of
climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base
of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand
year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and
then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000
years.
Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of
ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic
pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000
years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about
12,000 years.
Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also
shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which
are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich
cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year
period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of
100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the
earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s
axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich
theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of
which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth,
act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm
interglacials.
Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first
presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was
developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the
theory was established in its present form by the Czech mathematician
Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious
journal “Science” published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James
Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled “Variations in the Earth's
orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages,” which described the correlation
which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate data
obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the
astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich
theory has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age
causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich theory
is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia
articles about the Ice Ages.
In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own
climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the
Milankovich cycles, "… must be qualified in two ways. First, they
apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and
not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of
fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because
they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and
longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not
predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the
next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation
and cooler climate."
During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other
scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as
carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to
catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of
‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as
fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of
AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make
pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.
The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW
theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al
Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’
graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began
during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However,
this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered
the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the
coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current
Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass
the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.
The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on
evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring
the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is
essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from
paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible
explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the
natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.
In 1999 the British journal “Nature” published the results of data
derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia ’s Vostok
station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data
includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2
and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from
420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present
time.
The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums
and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the
graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an
electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that
changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by
about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global
temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse.
In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global
temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global
temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.
The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the
global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more
CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their
carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our
carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them
from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or
CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural
Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing
amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the
changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2
levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end
of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be
eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels
begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s
oceans.
The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels
regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of
Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty
thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years
global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at
approximately the same levels which they are at today.
About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global
temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we
are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial,
and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky,
we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as
it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any
influence from the effects of AGW.
The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously
narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the
‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from
paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology,
paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering
another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting
climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over
the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to
distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real
threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render
large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being
foolishly ignored.
Gregory F. Fegel
Chainsaw
Ah yes, Gregory F. Fegel, noted anti-Americanist and.....uh.....not
really much else. The Ice Age theory is so ludicrous that the only place
you can find articles supporting it are with Pravda, that noted paragon
of truth and objectivity, where you can find this article next to
citations on the success of Russian missile tests. Agaxxan hates America
so much that he has to jump in bed with the those goddamned godless
pinko commies in order to attack us.
agaxxan
heh... their social and moral fabric has indeed been eroded by decades
of commie-ism and godless heathenism, but the russkis nevertheless
maintain a wild creative genius in fields such as science,
mathematics, classical music, chess and vodka shots... did you catch
the article on the distribution of bra cup sizes in the various
european countries? Very interesting.
Fred
>
> Ah yes, Gregory F. Fegel, noted anti-Americanist and.....uh.....not
> really much else. The Ice Age theory is so ludicrous that the only place
> you can find articles supporting it are with Pravda
There was that Dennis Quaid vehicle "The Day After Tomorrow"
--
-Fred
Terraholm
> Chainsaw wrote:
>
>>
>> Ah yes, Gregory F. Fegel, noted anti-Americanist and.....uh.....not
>> really much else. The Ice Age theory is so ludicrous that the only
>> place you can find articles supporting it are with Pravda
>
> There was that Dennis Quaid vehicle "The Day After Tomorrow"
>
>
For that theory to be promoted someone has to first believe in Global
warming...
Of course it would have a much longer timeline than the movie, decades
not days...that theory is if global warming melts so much ice the
Atlantic does not have enough salt to keep the 'conveyor' going that
drives the gulfstream current which keeps the UK, Europe and somewhat
New England warm...
That may have been what caused the 'little ice age' in addition to the
end of it made worse by Krakatoa...without the little ice age a lot of
history might have been different.
Brittan having the good wine...beer and hard liqueur never gaining
popularity...the potato still the 'devil's food' and never developed, no
French revolution because the french lived on bread, no democracy and
human rights doctrines progressed from the starving masses because of
lost gain crops..
When the queen said (actually she never did say it) 'Let them eat cake"
Cake referred not what we call cake but to the bits of bread left in the
pans after you take the loaf out.
And without the French revolution the American one was less likely...
As for the glacial ice cycle.. that is about 20,000 years...but unlike
the article makes the 'brink' of the next one about 10,000 years.
--
Laurel
"For every human problem there is a solution
that is simple, neat and wrong."
- H.L. Mencken
Fred
> Fred wrote:
>> Chainsaw wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> Ah yes, Gregory F. Fegel, noted anti-Americanist and.....uh.....not
>>> really much else. The Ice Age theory is so ludicrous that the only
>>> place you can find articles supporting it are with Pravda
>>
>> There was that Dennis Quaid vehicle "The Day After Tomorrow"
>>
>>
>
> For that theory to be promoted someone has to first believe in Global
> warming...
>
"Climate Change" please
--
-Fred
Chainsaw
> Chainsaw wrote:
>
>>
>> Ah yes, Gregory F. Fegel, noted anti-Americanist and.....uh.....not
>> really much else. The Ice Age theory is so ludicrous that the only
>> place you can find articles supporting it are with Pravda
>
> There was that Dennis Quaid vehicle "The Day After Tomorrow"
By golly you're right. What the heck are more than 50 scientific
societies and academies of science, including all of the national
academies of science of the major industrialized countries - including
the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the American Association for the
Advancement of Science, and the Joint Science Academies of the major
industrialized and developing nations - doing spreading such obvious
nonsense about global warming when anyone who watches Hollywood pablum
knows better?
Fred
Psst. I am one of the biggest "Climate Change Chicken Littles"
--
-Fred
brink
Ouch.
brink
laz...@earthlink.net
Not really. The idea that global warming can produce an ice age is
actually very viable. The fact is that western Europe owes it's mild
climate to the Thermoline Conveyor, both the Humbolt and Gulf currents
are a part of it as well, which brings warm water from the tropics up
to the arctic down to the antarctic as well as to western europe, the
eastern seaboard etc etc. The mechanism for it is waters salinity and
density of the ocean water, ocean water is denser than fresh water, so
if enough fresh water, say from the polar ice caps as well as green
land's glaciers, were to melt and thus drastically change the oceans
salinity and density the Thermoline Conveyor would come to a halt and
thus drastically change the climate. There HAS been a notable slow
down of parts of the conveyor, where it's carrying capacity and
velocity have been monitored for the last twenty years, most notably
the part of the conveyor that runs along Spain - Britain up to the
arctic. During the Ice ages that have occurred on the planet the
Conveyor was stopped so it's not that far a stretch to say that if
global warming leads to the ice caps melting that it would lead to a
new ice age.
brink
"Terraholm" <terrahol...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:6svhpaF...@mid.individual.net...
>
> And without the French revolution the American one was less likely...
?
brink
Terraholm
er...visa versa
However the little ice age had a part in the american side, Protestant
Reformation...see 'valley forge', ending the spanish empire and starving
the vikings off the continent...
Jabba
> brink wrote:
>
> > "Terraholm" <terraholmSPAM...@gmail.com> wrote in message
I think you've been watching too much of the original programming on
the Weather Channel.
--
jabba
citizen of the empire
Terraholm
History, DISC and Smithsonian channels... =)