Hollinger - Measuring Griffin against the greats
Alson Wong
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Measuring Griffin against the greats
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Normally at this time of year, I might write a column that compares the
various Rookie of the Year candidates in order to help sort out a tight
race.
Uh, not this year.
Blake Griffin has run away with that honor, with Monday night's 47-point
outburst against the Pacers serving as the exclamation point on what's
almost certain to be a unanimous vote. (Unfortunately, we're required to
say "almost" given the long history of moron homer votes that have kept
other obvious winners from unanimity).
Griffin is blowing away the competition so badly that he has a
seven-point player efficiency rating lead on his closest rookie rival,
Washington's John Wall; Griffin's estimated wins added (EWA) is greater
than that of his five closest rivals combined. Overall, he ranks 14th in
the NBA in PER and, in spite of his team's awful record, seems a
near-lock to make the All-Star team. That's through half a season of
work, but given that most rookies see their numbers improve in the
second half of their first season, he's likely to move up the charts
further.
Sunday's explosion added to his massive list of superlatives, while
placing him in some rather select company. According to Elias, Griffin's
point total was the most this season. His 19-of-24 shooting, for 79.2
percent, was the best percentage by a rookie taking at least 20 shots in
more than a quarter center (Hakeem Olajuwon shot 18-of-22 on Dec. 6,
1984). He joined Shaquille O'Neal as the only rookies in the last
quarter century to have a 45-10 game, and joined Michael Jordan and Rick
Barry as the only rooks to have at least 47 points and 14 rebounds in
the same game.
Griffin is 12th in scoring, fourth in rebounding, and has an amazing
streak of 27 straight double-doubles. He's been so good that the
Clippers have become a must-see team in spite of the fact that they're
10 games under .500 and, having played more home games and fewer road
games than any team in the league, are likely to slip even lower.
So there's no Rookie of the Year race to analyze. Instead, we're left
with a more historic question: Is he having one of the best rookie years
ever? And if so, where does it rank?
Great recent rookie seasons, pace-adjusted to 2010-11
PAP40=Pace-adjusted points per 40 minutes; PAR40=Pace-adjusted rebounds
per 40 minutes; PAA40=Pace-adjusted assists per 40 minutes
Player PAP40 PAR40 PAA40 PER
David Robinson, 1989-90 24.9 12.3 2.1 26.3
Michael Jordan, 1984-85 27.4 6.3 5.7 25.8
Blake Griffin, 2010-11 24.1 13.7 3.6 23.3
Shaquille O'Neal, 1992-93 23.7 14.0 1.9 23.2
Terry Cummings, 1982-83 23.6 10.6 2.5 22.8
Tim Duncan, 1997-98 22.6 12.8 2.9 22.6
Chris Paul, 2005-06 18.6 5.9 9.0 22.1
Chris Webber, 1993-94 20.4 10.6 4.2 21.7
Hakeem Olajuwon, 1984-85 21.0 12.1 1.4 21.1
Alonzo Mourning, 1992-93 22.9 11.2 1.1 20.8
Elton Brand, 1999-00 22.5 11.2 2.1 20.6
Magic Johnson, 1979-80 17.6 7.6 7.2 20.6
Larry Bird, 1979-80 21.3 10.4 4.5 20.5
To answer that question, I went to the archives. As it turns out,
Griffin's rookie year (so far) isn't the best in history … I'd say Wilt
Chamberlain has that pretty safely salted away by jumping out of the
gate with a 37.6-27.0 campaign in 1959-60.
Nonetheless, it's still pretty amazing. The first thing one notices is
the players he's being compared to -- Griffin is on a trajectory that
few have approached, and rookies of this quality virtually always turn
into superstars. For instance, Griffin is on pace to be the seventh
rookie to average more than 22 points and 12 rebounds in a season; five
of the other six are in the Hall of Fame and the sixth, Shaquille
O'Neal, is a mortal lock to join them.
Of course, most of the great rookie seasons happened in the 1950s and
1960s, when (a) players rocketed into the league with four years of
college experience, and (b) the college game was a better learning
ground because everybody else stayed four years too. Griffin, for
instance, won't be touching Wilt's rookie numbers, or the Big O's near
triple-double campaign of 30.5-10.1-9.7 in 1960-61.
In the past four decades or so, however, players have routinely left
school early and taken more lumps as NBA rookies. In that light,
Griffin's rookie season seems even better. Only two rookies in the past
40 years have exceeded Griffin's current 23.26 PER, and one of them was
a 24-year-old David Robinson. The other was a fairly decent player by
the name of Michael Jordan.
Everybody else takes a back seat to Griffin. EVERYBODY. Shaq, Duncan,
Magic, Bird -- no dice, fellas. The comparison of Griffin to other
dominant big men of recent vintage is particularly noteworthy. Once we
adjust for pace and minutes, as I've done in the chart, his rookie
season seems completely in place next to those of Robinson, Duncan,
Shaq, and Olajuwon. And in one respect (his passing ability) he's
already far beyond them and nearly into Larry Bird/Chris Webber territory.
The other thing you'll notice from the chart, again, is the quality of
the comparables. Of the other 12 best rookies in the past three decades,
all but two are either in the Hall of Fame or well on their way. We'll
try really hard to ignore the fact that the two exceptions both played
for the Clippers.
Keep in mind, too, that we're comparing Griffin's half-year numbers
against the other player's full-year numbers. But Griffin is still
ramping up -- his scoring, rebounding and assist numbers have improved
dramatically every month. Griffin averaged only 20.9 points and 11.7
boards in November; in January he's at 27.6 and 14.4. At this rate, his
April numbers are going to be the stuff of video games.
Sum it all up and we're left with only one conclusion: Griffin isn't
just another Rookie of the Year. He's, most likely, a superduperstar.
Basically, his career represents the collision of two trends that have
had few, if any, exceptions: The first, that players who play this well
this early virtually always become all-time greats, and the second, that
the Clippers are cursed. L.A.'s "other" team will have its fingers
crossed that the first trend can overcome the second.
Ken Cheng
of the classic Karl Malone model, and Griffin's just getting started.
The Clippers won't be able to hold on to him.
Johnny
My only worry would be his history of injuries. Let's hope
that's over so we will have the pleasure of his greatness
for many years.
Alson Wong
Maybe he'll become a Laker, as someone suggested.
Silk_Wilkes
wrote:
> http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollin...
>
Jabbar had a rookie PER of 22.5. The components for the stat were
incomplete though.