Hollinger - C's look strong, but L.A. has my vote
Alson Wong
Thursday, June 3, 2010
C's look strong, but L.A. has my vote
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
After a four-day layoff, I think we've all had enough. Let's stop talking
and play ball already.
But before we do, I have to discuss my prediction for this series. Two years
ago I, like a lot of people, picked the Lakers to beat the Celtics. In
retrospect, that was crazy. But we were all taken in by Boston's struggles
in the first two rounds and Los Angeles' impressive romp through the West
playoffs.
I'm taking L.A. again in the rematch, but I feel like I'm on more solid
ground this time around. Although the Celtics are now the momentum pick
after bumping off Cleveland and Orlando, the Lakers won seven more
regular-season games, have home-court advantage and nearly swept Boston 2-0
in the regular season, even without Kobe Bryant in the second meeting.
That said, my choice of the Lakers in seven reveals my misgivings about this
matchup. One can't ignore the fact that the two best regular-season teams,
Cleveland and Orlando, aren't in these Finals because of the Celtics.
Of course, the regular season has proven strangely irrelevant in this
go-round. The Lakers and Celtics finished 10th and 12th, respectively, in my
Power Rankings, meaning this will be the first time since the start of my
rankings in 2007 that our champion won't come from the top two. I never
again want to hear an announcer claim, "You can't just turn it on for the
playoffs." Both these teams did exactly that. Each started the regular
season 23-5; they combined to go 61-47 the rest of the way.
The case for the Celtics doesn't end there. If you were trying to concoct a
playoff Power Rankings, Boston would get the nod. Boston had a plus-80
scoring margin over its 17 payoff games, an advantage of nearly five points
a game, while L.A. was plus-64 over 16 games, or exactly plus-4.0 per game.
Boston also played superior opposition, whether you go by win-loss record,
point differential, or year-end Power Ranking.
One of the Celtics' biggest advantages comes from the matchup problem they
present for L.A.'s backcourt. The Lakers have to put Derek Fisher on either
Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen. Either way, it's a problem. If Fisher guards
Allen, the Lakers guard is going to have trouble adequately contesting shots
when Allen comes off screens firing, so Allen could enjoy another big
shooting day like the one he had in the Game 6 clincher in 2008.
Put Fisher on Rondo, however, and the Lakers guard's lack of quickness will
be a major issue. While Fisher played well against Deron Williams and Steve
Nash this postseason, those players are closer to his wheelhouse
defensively: They're similar in size and don't own breathtaking speed. It's
the little scatbacks like Aaron Brooks and Darren Collison who give Fisher
fits, and Rondo falls closer to that category. Additionally, putting Fisher
on Rondo means Bryant will get tagged by a zillion screens guarding Allen
off the ball, which will wear him down physically and take away his ability
to roam on D.
I'll give you one more reason to like the Celtics: They're the new
"Second-Round Strife" team. Remember this column? At the time I wrote it in
reference to Cleveland, but in retrospect it applies equally to Boston. The
Celtics trailed 2-1 in the second round and had lost home court after a
29-point drubbing in their own building; if they end up winning the
championship they'll be the ninth consecutive team to win the title after
hitting a major speed bump in Round 2. (Both the 2008 Celtics and the 2009
Lakers, for instance, went a full seven games in the second round.)
All that said, I'm taking the Lakers in seven. The fact that I'm saying
seven indicates my uncertainty. But what I keep getting to back to is this
one thing: I'm a lot more confident in L.A.'s ability to score on Boston
than I am in Boston's ability to score on L.A.
The Celtics are playing better defense than anyone in basketball right now,
and will make Kobe work harder for his shots than Utah and Phoenix did in
the previous two rounds. But he's in such a groove right now that I'm not
sure it will matter.
Additionally, the injuries in Boston's frontcourt are worrisome. Kendrick
Perkins has a bad wrist and Rasheed Wallace has a bad back; add it up and we
could see a lot of Glen Davis, who will struggle in the finesse matchup
against mobile bigs like Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom.
While L.A. has an injury worry of its own in the wounded knee of center
Andrew Bynum, the Lakers lose nothing when Odom checks in. In fact, the
Lakers probably wouldn't want Bynum on the floor anyway against the likes of
Wallace and Davis because their outside shooting would pull Bynum away from
the rim.
At the other end, who's going to score for the Celtics? Rondo will have some
openings and be able to create some things, and Allen may be a reliable
20-point scorer if Fisher (and/or Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown) checks
him all series.
Beyond that, it's hard to see where the points come from. Paul Pierce
crushed the Lakers in 2008, but he is going to have Ron Artest, who helped
limit Pierce to 26 combined points in the teams' two regular-season
meetings, draped all over him this time around. In fact, as I noted
Wednesday, the de facto swap of Trevor Ariza for Artest last summer is a
major reason to like L.A. in this series.
Garnett won't have the size advantage that he had on Antawn Jamison in Round
2, or even the one presented in the conference finals, when he played an
opponent similar in size to Odom in Orlando's Rashard Lewis and struggled
against a defense that fronted him in the post.
And the bench? Don't count on it. Tony Allen will get some run as a
defensive pest against Kobe, and Wallace will jack up a few 3s. But the
Celtics' only good shot at a big game offensively from its reserves is to
roll the dice on the Nate Robinson show. He may have a couple games in which
he goes off, like he did in Game 6 against Orlando. But he's just as likely
to take Boston out of games with his shot selection and defense as he is
shooting them into one.
Sum it all up and throw in a couple other subtle advantages -- the
likelihood of a Perkins suspension for exceeding the league's technical foul
limit, the back spasms that troubled Rondo this past week, the additional
rest Bryant has been getting for all his wounded limbs -- and it seems like
L.A. has the edge. Not an overwhelming one perhaps, but enough of one to
forecast the Lakers to break into history's elite by becoming back-to-back
champions.