Yao a giant among oversized centers
Alson Wong
Friday, July 8, 2011
Yao a giant among oversized centers
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Yao Ming's retirement seemed inevitable from the moment the Rockets
announced he'd be out for the rest of the 2010-11 season. Nonetheless,
it brings a tinge of sadness with it because of all the many "what if"
questions it brings up. Most obvious among them, of course, is what he
might have been if he'd never been hurt -- Yao was the best center in
the league in 2006-07, his last fully healthy season, and was only 28
when he saw his last substantial game action in the 2009 playoffs.
Beyond that, a flood of other queries come to mind.
What if the Chinese basketball authorities had pushed him less and not
had him competing in all manner of tournaments -- some major, many minor
-- during his summers? I hope the Chinese relished that 77-35 win over
South Korea in the 2005 Asian Games semifinals. That tournament, just
before training camp, was the beginning of the end -- Yao needed toe
surgery in December and suffered his first foot fracture the following
April.
What might the Rockets' fate have been if he hadn't been injured in
March 2008? The Rockets won 22 straight games that spring, 13 of them
coming after Yao had been injured, but didn't have enough pop to get out
of the first round minus his post scoring. Similarly, in 2009, one
wonders what might have happened if he'd been able to complete the
second-round series against the Lakers. He was lost after Game 2 with
the teams tied 1-1 and heading back to Houston.
Or what if he'd grown up being immersed in an American (or Spanish or
Greek or Argentine) basketball culture rather than effectively becoming
the guinea pig for China? What if he'd joined the NBA at 19 years old
instead of 22? Would he have been a more instinctive defender or
rebounder, or a more aggressive scorer, or had better training in other
ways?
Yes, we have a lot of questions to digest when it comes to Yao's career,
one in which stands out as much for his character and professionalism as
his play on the court. Speaking of which, I'll add one more question:
Did you ever hear anyone say anything bad about him? He had a nearly
decade-long NBA career as one of the most high-profile players in the
world, and pretty much everyone he encountered liked him. The gentle
giant had 13 technical fouls his entire career, fewer than Dwight Howard
or Kobe Bryant had in 2010-11. I witnessed the first one, in Atlanta in
January 2003 -- he screamed after a dunk. That's it. Probably because
he'd never done it before.
Yet despite the sooner-than-needed end to his career, there are some
enduring trends we can take away from Yao's eight NBA seasons:
� No oversized player has ever scored this effectively. Kareem
Abdul-Jabbar was 7-foot-2, and so was Artis Gilmore (who at his peak
scored at roughly the same rate as Yao). But that's the line -- there
has never been a player taller than 7-2 who was this much of an
offensive weapon; mostly players of this size were either employed for
their defensive skill, such as Manute Bol or Mark Eaton, or in the
wishful hope that they'd eventually become that kind of an asset (Chuck
Nevitt, Priest Lauderdale, etc.).
Even the ones who were offensive forces -- Rik Smits, Zydrunas
Ilgauskas, Arvydas Sabonis -- were second or third options. Effective?
Yes. Dominant? Not so much.
Yao was different. At his peak, he was unguardable on the block, a
natural post player who could shoot a sweet turnaround jumper to either
side. The only 7-3 or taller players in history to average at least 20
points a game are Ralph Sampson and Yao, but Yao trumps even Sampson --
he averaged 25.0 in 2006-07 and had three straight years above 22. Yao's
2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons are also the two best seasons in per-minute
scoring by a player of this size.
� No player over 7 feet has shot free throws this well. The top free
throw percentage for any player over 7-foot-1 belongs to Yao Ming, at
83.3 percent. Nobody else is even close -- in fact no other player of
that size is over 80. The next closest is Sabonis at 78.6 percent. In
terms of individual seasons, the top four free throw seasons by a player
of this size belong to Yao Ming, Yao Ming, Yao Ming and Yao Ming.
Even compared to smaller players, Yao's shooting is fairly historic --
an amazing feat considering his line-drive delivery. Only one 7-footer,
Dirk Nowitzki, has a better free throw percentage. Among players 6-10 or
taller with at least 1,500 attempts, Yao is six; set the cutoff at 6-7
and he's still in the top 25.
� Oversized players are huge injury risks. I've mentioned this before,
but the two factors that are most predictive in determining career
length are size and shooting ability. Yao, as the tallest player in the
league and also a pretty darned good shooter, figured to have a nice,
long run in the NBA based on those factors.
However, too much size turns out to be a bad thing. The curve inverts at
6-foot-10; that's the optimal size for a career length, but at greater
heights the injury risk outweighs the benefit of increased height. We
see this somewhat with 7-footers, but it's players of Yao's size that
really drive the point home.
Players who are 7-3 or taller just aren't destined to have nice, orderly
15-year careers. Despite the size advantage that these players possess,
not one of them has managed to have a 1,000-game NBA career. Eaton, at
875, came the closest.
Generally, they have back, knee or ankle problems after a few years, and
from there it's a war against their bodies. Smits and Ilgauskas were
able to fight their feet to a draw and make a reasonable go of it; Yao,
unfortunately, could not.
Granted, this isn't a large sample. Twenty players in history were 7-3
or taller, and 10 of them couldn't play dead. But of the other 10, the
theme of promise muted by injury rings loudly.
Meanwhile, check out all the pedestrian 6-10 guys who were able to play
at least 1,000 games -- basically two seasons longer than Smits. Herb
Williams, Caldwell Jones, Leroy Ellis, Clifford Robinson, Joe Smith, Sam
Lacey and Rick Mahorn, for instance, hung around longer than any of the
oversized centers. They weren't great players, but the injuries never
got 'em.
� The Hall of Fame beckons. Evaluated strictly on his playing career,
Yao's credentials are shaky -- yes, he was named to eight All-Star
teams, thanks to an enthusiastic fan vote, and he did make a second- or
third-team All-NBA squad five times. But he never made first-team
All-NBA, never played in the Finals, never had a top-10 MVP finish and
only played 468 career games -- a little less than six full seasons.
Springfield, however, has never been a fact-driven process. The two key
elements in Yao's favor are that 1) he essentially ushered in the game
of basketball to a billion Chinese, providing a pillar around which fans
in that country could build a broader understanding of the game, and 2)
he's an international player.
The latter point is important, because the Basketball Hall of Fame has
set an almost comically low bar for inducting international players in
past votes, and based on those standards Yao will waltz in. Put another
way, I don't think it's possible to have a system in which Maciel
Pereira and Kresimir Cosic pass muster but Yao Ming doesn't.
While the Hall's voting history with internationals will create serious,
awkward problems for Springfield when the current generation of
NBA-experienced Europeans retires, Yao will be among the first of the
bunch up for induction and has one of the best resumes of the bunch.
Combined with his fame and his impact on the game in the world's largest
country, he's in.
Florjan
> Put another
> way, I don't think it's possible to have a system in which Maciel
> Pereira and Kresimir Cosic pass muster but Yao Ming doesn't.
Kresimir Cosic was 10 times better than Yao could ever be.
Terraholm
The International placement is for international play outside of the NBA
category and basically for Euroleague and International FIBA tournament
World and Olympic games.
Yao does not have Euro league championships (Cosic had 3 golds and 3
silvers) and multiple Olympic metals (Cosic played in 4 Olympic games
including gold Medal in Moscow and 2 silvers) plus 4 world games
including 2 World Championship Golds) Then he coached Yugoslavia's world
team to medals in the World Championships and Olympics.
Voted top 50 all time Euroleague contributors (35 players, 10 coaches 5
refs).
Yao did get China 3 Asian FIBA Championships which qualified them for
the World games and Olympics. But the best the team did when they got to
World competition was round of 16 in the worlds and the quarterfinals
in the Olympics. And Yao has one Chinese Basketball Association
Championship.
And it not for a non American player judged on what they also did in the
NBA which is a separate HOF category. Although Cosic's college career at
BYU may have been an element.
(Cosic turned down several NBA offers and oddly enough in here was
drafted by both the Blazers, 10th round, and later the lakers, 5th round)
============================
And did Yao retire?
http://hken.ibtimes.com/articles/176848/20110708/yao-ming-not-to-retire-report.htm
After Yahoo's surprising news of Yao's retirement, Sina Sports said that
Yao Ming did not announce his decision to retire from the NBA, citing
Yao's broker Zhang Jiming.
"Yao Ming has decided to retire from the NBA, league sources tell Y!
Sports. He informed the league office within past 48 hours." Yahoo
Reporter Adrian Wojnarowski said. "Yao hasn't been able to recover fully
from numerous operations. He is one of the seminal figures in
globalization of the NBA and basketball."