Pop...get that committee going...
VicXnews
by shrink on Dec 27, 2009 11:29 AM CST 2 comments
http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/12/27/1220743/pau-gasol-nbas-scariest-man-again
Pau Gasol three-year extension through 2014, at an average of $19 million
a year, should worry all NBA fans. At his press conference, Gasol
mentioned several reasons why a player would like coming to Los Angeles,
like less cultural differences, its an international city, there's a lot
going on, and the weather is nicer, especially after the cold east coast
road trip. But he left out the biggest reason -- you can get paid.
Maybe the first question NBA fans should ask would be "How big is $19
million?" It's big, even compared to other giant NBA salaries. Next
season, $19 million would be a Top Five salary in the NBA -- and while
Gasol is very good, he is not a Top Five player. Also, while those five
deals are often the high end of older NBA contracts, Gasol's extension
averages that much, and its locked in until 2014.
But if $19 million/year is a lot, remember this -- it will cost the Lakers
$38 million with luxury tax penalties! This astronomical sum would
quickly bankrupt many franchises who are just trying to keep their head
above water in tough economic times. The fact that the Lakers can afford
it, and still have money left over, should be of concern to fans that want
a competitive NBA, particularly the Chairman of the NBA's Board of
Governors, Glen Taylor.
Most fans remember when the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol nearly two years
ago, it was one of the most controversial trades in the history of the
NBA, pointing to the problem of the "have's" and the "have nots."
Small-market Memphis was struggling to avoid major financial losses, and
traded their franchise player to the Lakers for an expiring contract and
two late future first-round picks. This was essentially a salary/talent
dump, and while cutting costs and putting the team back in the lottery for
a number of years may have fit ownership, Grizzly fans were very unhappy
to lose their best player. Many experts feared that the Gasol trade
demonstrated that big market teams would be able to poach the best talent
from smaller markets simply because they can afford to pay big contracts.
Smaller markets would not be able to compete, and be doomed to mediocrity.
Unfortunately, the situation is worse than ever financially, and I expect
to see more shocking trades like this in the next right months. Ken
Berger from CBS Sportsline writes that net gate receipts fell 7.4% this
year so far, and now eight teams make less than $500,000/game, with the
PHI, SAC, CHA joining MIN, MEM, MIL, IND and ATL. While the Timberwolves
attendance hasn't dropped as much as other teams, they are still near the
bottom despite offering many free and low-priced tickets to boost
attendance.
However, things are peachy for the Lakers. The Forbes numbers came out
last week, and despite the highest payroll and luxury taxes in the league,
the Lakers were #1 in operating income, revenue, and in the value of their
franchise, which is now over $600 million. While the Wolves make merely
$350,000/home game in revenues (not profits), the Lakers make an
astonishing $1.96 million -- over five times as much per game! Local TV
revenues (within 70 miles) are not shared, so that's a lucrative revenue
stream as well for successful big market teams.
Some experts flinched when the Lakers signed Bynum to a $12.5 mil
extension. While people can debate whether he's proven enough to be worth
it, the Lakers were already securely over the luxury threshold, and
retaining him will cost $25 mil. Few other teams could have afford that
much money, and normally that talent would have drifted to the NBA's open
market. Now the Lakers sign Gasol to a huge extension, and have headed
straight over to Kobe to spend more money on his extension. While most
teams can barely afford to build a team around two expensive players, the
Lakers can afford four, and still have plenty of money left over. While
the luxury threshold squeezes nearly everyone, the biggest team can ignore
it, and ruin the parity of the league.
Jerry Buss told the media that this signing sends a message. I think he
has. The Lakers are open for business, and will use their cash to add or
retain expensive players that other teams can't hope to keep. Hopefully,
Glen Taylor and the rest of the league will devise a new Collective
Bargaining Agreement next year that restores more parity to the league, or
the Lakers could become the NBA's version of the Yankees, throwing money
at players and buying championships.
Michael Fletcher
>
> Hopefully,
> Glen Taylor and the rest of the league will devise a new Collective
> Bargaining Agreement next year that restores more parity to the league, or
> the Lakers could become the NBA's version of the Yankees, throwing money
> at players and buying championships.
What a bunch of shit. The Lakers are way more impressive than the
Yankees specifically BECAUSE there is a salary cap. They managed to
stockpile a good deal of talent without the luxury of simply offering
the max to every free agent out there.
Dewey
news:hh8omh$99c$2...@speranza.aioe.org:
Actually, the Lakers and the Yankees are very similar financially. The
Lakers incur the luxury tax with impunity as do the Yankees. The
Lakers' payroll this season is around $91M this year (according to
hoopshype.com; #1 in the NBA). For the 13 players on that list, that's
an average of 7M per player. The Yankees payroll this past season was
$208M according to ESPN (always overinflated but we'll take it) and that
is for 27 players, an average of 7.7M per player. That is only 10% more
per player than the Lakers. Now, if we divide by number of games
played...
--
"You are, number 6"
- The New Number 2
Dewey
news:Xns9CEECA3F2B30de...@130.133.4.11:
And I didn't even mention revenue.
Terraholm
They acquired a huge payroll no matter the method. Better than the teams
that did that without even making the playoffs.
Wins per player dollar compared to league average:
The Spurs are in a very small market and did it on a budget...
But their worst year since 2000 was 2000 at 125% and in 2005 their wins
per player dollar was 229% of average.
Lakers had 3 years at under average including their low in '05 at 65%
Their best was last year at 192%
Compares the number of wins per player payroll relative to the rest of
the NBA. Postseason wins count twice as much as regular season wins. A
score of 120 means that the team achieved 20% more victories per dollar
of payroll compared with the league average.
Spurs:
http://images.forbes.com/media/lists/32/2009/trps323002.gif
Lakers:
http://images.forbes.com/media/lists/32/2009/trps320250.gif
Boston
http://images.forbes.com/media/lists/32/2009/trps326173.gif
Knicks low 25% high in 2000 at 98%
http://images.forbes.com/media/lists/32/2009/trps328815.gif
Terraholm
The long-term point: Until the NBA revamps its financial system after
the 2010-11 season, we're going to see a handful of teams willingly
weaken themselves just to save money. We got a taste with the
Shaq/Jefferson trades last summer, but this will be different. This will
feel more like baseball: the "haves" preying on the "have-nots." This
year's luxury tax line is $69.2 million. Next year's line will drop to
between $62 million (worst-case scenario) and $65 million (reasonable).
What do you do if you own New Orleans, a .500 team that has $73.1
million committed this year and $71.8 million committed next year? Do
you just suck it up and lose $12 million in tax money for these next two
seasons on top of significant revenue losses? Or do you do something to
change your destiny. You know � like �
(Hornets fans are screaming right now. I'm sorry. They have to hear it.
They need to know.)
Like giving away David West �
(They're screaming, "No! Don't say it! No!" but it has to be said. I'm
sorry.)
Or � (gulp) � Chris Paul?
The short-term point: We're headed for a particularly feverish trading
season. Heading into Christmas, I can't remember a longer list of teams
that absolutely have to make a move for one of three reasons:
Group A: To save money and/or shed cap space for next season (and the
next 2-3).
Group B: To get something for a franchise player before he flees in free
agency.
Group C: To give away a top-shelf player as a way to shed an unpalatable
contract or three.
And we have Group D: Boston, Dallas, Cleveland, Miami, Houston,
Portland, and the Lakers � or as they're more commonly known, "The Teams
That Can't Wait To Take Advantage Of Someone In Group A, B and C." I am
including Miami despite its nightly Monet painting; the Heat have
$50-plus million in expiring contracts for panic trades in case Dwyane
Wade plays the "I don't want to waste another season in my prime, I'm
leaving in July for Chicago or New York if you don't get me some help
for the 2010 playoffs" card. Which, by the way, should be happening
within the next five weeks. There's only so many times you can kick it
to Mario Chalmers for a wide-open three and watch it clang off the rim.
================
Some of the rest is more off target:
==========================
So where do we stand? Let's figure out the identity of the sellers,
along with their payroll situations and free advice from the VP of
Common Sense and Picasso of the ESPN Trade Machine. (By the way, both
nicknames are mine. I can't have enough nicknames. I'm like Apollo
Creed.) All projected 2010-11 payrolls do not have salaries for 2010
draft picks factored in, obviously.
(Important note: I am excluding the Nets, who are being sold right now
to Mutant Russian Mark Cuban and won't do anything major before
February. I'm also excluding Utah, which jumped the gun on me by
shedding cap space in the deal with the Zombie Sonics: Matt Harpring's
expiring contract and impressive rookie Eric Maynor for nothing. How
dare you jump the gun on my column, Utah! You couldn't have waited a day?)
New York Knicks (group A)
2009-10 payroll: $83.1 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $27.3 million
� The VP's Take: They need to clear $18 million of Eddy Curry/Jared
Jeffries contracts before next summer's LeBron Sweepstakes, either by
trade or by spiking their Gatorade with heroin. The second move would be
a criminal act; the first move could only happen if they threw their
last two lottery picks (Danilo Gallinari AND Jordan Hill) into the trade
(or trades). They need to carve out $45-48 million in cap space so they
can lure LeBron, Bosh, and either Wade or Joe Johnson as The Ultimate
Big Three. Everything else will take care of itself.
� Mitigating Factor: Knicks GM Donnie Walsh has been offering Al
Harrington around for ECs (expiring contracts), then insisting the other
team takes Curry or Jeffries as well. Gee, thanks, Donnie! Really,
you're throwing one of them in for me free of charge? How nice of you!
He's the annoying guy in your fantasy league whose e-mails you finally
just start deleting. Donnie, you need to get a little more realistic.
And soon.
� The VP's Verdict: Trade! Trade! I am thinking something like this �
Fake Trade 1a: Gallinari, Curry and $3 million to Minnesota for the Mark
Blount/Brian Cardinal ECs. Basically, Minnesota would be paying $10
million next year to get Gallinari for 2011, 2012 and 2013. Total
financial commitment: $23 million. Isn't a lottery pick and potential
50-40-90 percentage guy worth $23 million over three years (just $9
million for the last two), especially for a team stupidly playing the
"we're waiting for Ricky Rubio, so tuck yourself in and enjoy three
years of losing and misery!" card? Of course.
Fake Trade No. 1b: Jeffries, Hill and $3 million to Sacramento for Kenny
Thomas's EC. Same principle, less money: You just bought a lottery pick
for the price of Jeffries' 2010-11 contract ($6.5 million, and by the
way, he's a valuable defender). The same offer could work for the Nets
(Bobby Simmons), Zombie Sonics (Etan Thomas) and Blazers (Steve
Blake/Travis Outlaw). Someone will bite.
Back to the Knicks: Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas did so much damage to
that franchise that, really, there's a certain symmetry in them emerging
from the 2000s without keeping a single lottery pick thanks to the
aforementioned two trades. But if they cleared the decks completely,
couldn't they seduce LeBron with the offer of building his own franchise
from scratch in America's biggest city -- the metropolis where
basketball matters the most, in a market he could potentially own like
no New York athlete since Namath, in one of the two cities that would
respect his privacy and allow him to pursue all the non-basketball
things he wants to pursue -- and put himself on the map for eternity as
the guy who saved basketball in New York City? Anyone can win a title.
Not anyone can own New York for a few years.
Look, I change my mind on this topic almost every month. I have no idea
how it will play out. None. I just know the Knicks have a chance to
offer LeBron James something that nobody else has ever been offered in
sports history: A blank canvas and unlimited resources for a potential
top-10 player of all time who is just hitting his prime to build his own
All-Star team. It's unprecedented. If Gallinari and Hill have to be
sacrificed to make it happen, you do it. You don't even think twice.
Milwaukee Bucks (group A)
2009-10 payroll: $68.3 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $51.6 million
WEEK 16 PICKS
To check out Bill's picks for Week 16 of the NFL season, check back on
Sports Guy's World on Thursday afternoon. If you missed this week's NFL
podcast with Cousin Sal, click here for the 12/21 BS Report.
� VP's Advice: Need a contender to bite on Michael Redd's contract ($35M
remaining through 2011), and if that team is stupid enough to take Dan
Gadzuric's contract as well ($14M through 2011), even better. It's the
Jennings/Bogut Era now. A surprisingly fun one, by the way. Who knew?
� Mitigating Factor: None. Although it would help if Gadzuric showed a
pulse for the first time in five years. I wish NBA teams could motivate
players the same way I motivate my daughter during the holiday season.
Wait, do you want me to tell Santa that you did that? I'm talking to him
tomorrow! I'm going to tell him that you did that!
� VP's Verdict: Wait six weeks. If Redd heats up, they might be able to
rope Cleveland into a "Shaq for Redd/Gadzuric" panic trade. Regardless,
they're under the tax, and more importantly, people give a crap about
basketball in Wisconsin again. Two 2009 lottery picks revived NBA
franchises � and neither of them were named "Griffin" or "Rubio"?
Flabbergasting.
Golden State Warriors (group A)
2009-10 payroll: $65.9 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $52.1 million
� VP's Take: No plan, no identity, and no idea what they're doing. All
bets are off. They might be dumb enough to use Anthony Randolph (a
top-10 talent among the under-25 guys, even if he's a little nuts) or
Andris Biedrins to get someone to bite on Corey Maggette's contract ($40
million remaining through 2013). Let's hope not. They should be building
around Randolph, Biedrins, Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry and giving them
the lion's share of minutes.
� Mitigating Factor: It wouldn't shock me if they dealt Randolph,
Biedrins, Ellis and Curry in the same trade. It also wouldn't shock me
if Don Nelson coached a game naked from the waist down, or if their
devoted fans organized the first-ever boycott of a professional sports
team that actually worked. Can an entire franchise get Tyson Zone status?
(Random note: One of my favorite movies growing up was called "Inside
Moves." It's about a lovable bar of cripples and sad sacks in San
Francisco. The bartender is a Warriors season-ticket holder who had a
promising basketball career derailed by a bum knee. I won't spoil the
ending for you, but it's important to note that when this movie was
being made, somebody asked, "Who should be the favorite team for the
gimp bartender? Wait, I got it � the Warriors!" And this was 1980. At
least with the Clippers, you can blame Donald Sterling for their
problems. Who do you blame for three-plus decades of Warriors
dysfunction? I mean, other than God?)
� VP's Verdict: Don't trade, G-State. But if you do, here's an idea �
Fake Trade No. 2 (three-way): Tracy McGrady's EC to the Knicks;
Randolph, Eddy Curry and Cuttino Mobley's EC to Houston; Gallinari to
the Warriors. New York wipes Curry off the books. Houston takes a $10
million hit next year for a chance to hit superstar paydirt with
Randolph. Golden State gets something for Randolph before he
inadvertently sabotages his trade value for good by crying during all
five games of a road trip. And Gallinari realizes his destiny as a
NellieBaller. Everyone wins.
(Well, except for the Warriors fans. They always lose. It's just the
rule. I have no doubt that Anthony Randolph can only fail for Golden
State, and I have no doubt that he will come back to haunt them
somewhere else. Maybe they're better off just keeping him and continuing
to destroy him mentally until he goes Sprewell on someone. Or as Don
Nelson calls it, "Plan A.")
Indiana Pacers (group A)
2009-10 payroll: $66.9 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $65.7 million (OVER)
� VP's Take: The Pacers should be a small-market team that pays one big
star (in this case, Danny Granger) and a bunch of scrappy role players.
Right now, they're in no-man's land -- destined to win 35-42 games a
year, with no chance of growing into something better than that. Why not
just bottom out? Like what David Kahn tried to do in Minnesota, only not
as clumsy and caked in double-talk.
� Mitigating Factor: Any "bottoming out" needs to include the team
dumping Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy and/or T.J. Ford (making $60.3
million combined thruough 2011). On the Untradeable Scale from 1 to
Gilbert Arenas, Murphy is a 2, Dunleavy is a 6.5 (because of knee
issues), and T.J. Ford is an 8.
� VP's Verdict: Move those Dunleavy/Murphy contracts while they're in
uniforms and not streetclothes or walking casts. For example �
Fake Trade 3a: Murphy and Dunleavy to Cleveland for Shaq's EC. Love the
Murphy fit for Cleveland because he can shoot threes and rebound; they
could play him, Varejao, LeBron, West and Williams at crunch time.
Anything Dunleavy gives them is a bonus. For Indiana, they can buy out
Shaq (saving a couple million), then save another $23 million next
season. And you thought professional basketball couldn't be salvaged in
Indiana! Let's celebrate by hitting a local strip club and firing
gunshots into the air. What, too soon?
Fake Trade 3b: Murphy, Dunleavy and Travis Diener to Utah for Andrei
Kirilenko, Kosta Koufos and Kyle Korver's EC. Admittedly, this trade
makes no sense -- I just wanted to break the record for "most white guys
in an all-white trade."
Minnesota Timberwolves (group A)
2009-10 payroll: $64.3 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $37.9 million
� VP's Take: The only "seller" not worth discussing -- they have almost
$23 million in expiring contracts to play with, but it would be crazy
for them to add 2010-11 payroll when they aren't going anywhere and have
made it VERY clear that they don't care for two years. Word on the
street is that they won't even discuss Rubio trades with other teams.
That's amazing. Look, there is no bigger Rubio fan than me. But he's not
a sure thing. This isn't like waiting for Larry Bird to finish his
1978-79 Indiana State season � and even worse, it's two seasons and
potentially three. If you're a floundering NBA doormat struggling to
generate revenue, and you just spent the last 10 years proving to your
fan base that they shouldn't have faith in the decision-making for the
team, can you really play the "Just Be Patient" card?
Being a T-Wolves fan is like sitting in an airport gate waiting for news
on a delayed flight. Do you think we'll take off today? Any word yet?
Only it's going to be like that for the next two years. At least.
(You know what would be really funny? Minnesota ending up with the No. 1
pick next spring. Again, I love Rubio � but John Wall is a sure thing.
He's a cross between Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose. You keep Wall over
Rubio 100 times out of 100. Watching David Kahn sheepishly shop Rubio's
rights a year late would be high comedy. Look, we still love Ricky, this
doesn't change how we feel about him. But when you have a chance to add
Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum to your team, you have to do it.)
Charlotte Bobcats (group A)
2009-10 payroll: $67.0 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $59.8 million
� VP's Take: I don't mind watching these guys. They play hard, they're
well-coached, and Gerald Wallace's rebounding binge ranks up there with
Kevin Porter being a four-time assist leader and E.C. Coleman making
first-team All-Defense as one of the most random NBA things that's ever
happened. If they upgraded Boris Diaw ($27 million through 2012), they
might even be a mildly frisky Round 1 opponent. On the flip side,
they're leading the league in Monets and paying $50.5 million combined
through 2011 to Tyson Chandler, DeSagana Diop and Nazr Mohammed � or as
they're more commonly known, "50.5 Million That We Should Have Just Set
On Fire."
(Important note: Did you know DeSagana Diop will earn $7.342 million
just for the 2012-13 season? I think the Mark Cuban Big Man Scholarship
Fund is my favorite NBA charity. The NBA really DOES care.)
� Mitigating Factor: Larry Brown is permanently wired in "short-term
right now we gotta fix this and get better!" mode, only they're getting
destroyed financially and can only hope to win 37-40 games (good enough
to make the playoffs in the crappy Eastern Conference, but still).
� VP's Verdict: Go for it this year and tank long-term. For example �
Fake Trade 4a: Diaw, D.J. Augustin and Gerald Henderson to Phoenix for
Amar'e Stoudemire and Taylor Griffin (cap throw-in). Charlotte satiates
Brown's short-term competitive disorder, gets a 20-point scorer AND gets
out of Diaw's deal. If Amar'e leaves after the season, so be it. Phoenix
saves $6 million (including the tax), adds two young assets and gets
something for Amar'e. One danger: Nash pulls a "BROOKS WAS HERE" in his
hotel room when he hears about the trade. Otherwise, I like it.
Fake Trade 4b: Chandler and Wallace to the Clippers for Marcus Camby, Al
Thornton and the Rasual Butler/Ricky Davis ECs. Camby is a one-year
upgrade on Chandler who replaces Wallace's rebounding; Thornton/Butler
could replace Wallace's scoring; and the deal saves Charlotte $3
million-plus this year, then another $20 million next year. Again, have
you seen their home games? They hosted Detroit on Tuesday and it looked
like it was "Get Your Own Row Night."
L.A. Clippers (group A)
2009-10 payroll: $59.7 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $39.0 million
� VP's Take: A frontcourt logjam looming with Blake Griffin coming back
soon. Can't mess with his minutes. He's a stud. That means trading Chris
Kaman (near impossible) or getting something for Marcus Camby (expiring
this summer) while he's healthy. And if they save money, that's a bonus.
Remember, they're owned by the cheapest man alive.
� Mitigating Factor: Mike Dunleavy doesn't see it that way, explaining
their decision to keep Camby like this: "When you have a stock that's
going up, you don't want to sell it. When it's going down, nobody wants
to buy it. So we just want to freeze, do nothing and continue to suck
the soul from our fans." Fine, I made the last sentence up. He said the
other two, though.
� VP's Verdict: Camby's stock WILL go down. Time to sell. Right now.
Today. We even have the perfect suitor: the Trail Blazers, who
tragically lost both of their centers in a four-week span. What about �
Fake Trade 5: Camby to Portland for the Outlaw/Blake ECs and the rights
to Victor Claver (Portland's 2009 No. 1, currently stashed in Europe).
Pretty good haul for the dirt-cheap Clips -- they end up with a $4.5
million profit swing and a highly regarded European for someone who was
leaving anyway.
(Important note: If the Clips had a real owner, they'd be shopping Kaman
and offering the rights to Minnesota's 2011 pick to get it done, just to
clear cap space for LeBron and another big-ticket free agent this
summer. Sadly, Donald Sterling's skills lie in housing discrimination,
not owning a basketball team. Too bad.)
Memphis Grizzlies (group B)
2009-10 payroll: $54.4 million
Projected 2010-2011 payroll: $47.4 million
� The VP's Take: Can you have a feel-good season when you're 13-15?
Apparently so. Like always with the Grizzlies, there's a problem
looming: Rudy Gay (playing well) has moved into the deadly Iguodala Zone
for non-franchise players who will get overpaid, and even worse, start
believing this makes them a franchise player. You don't want to shell
out $75 million for Rudy if you're doing everything short of passing a
hat around at home games like the Grizzlies. It might make more sense to
flip Rudy and dump Marko Jaric's contract ($14.7M through 2011) in the
deal. Repeat: might.
� Mitigating Factor: Chris Wallace is in charge. Open the window, pour a
glass of reason and toss it out the window.
� VP's Verdict: I say keep the Gay-Mayo Era going through the spring,
then hope Rudy gets attached to playing on what has become an immensely
fun Grizzlies team. If he isn't feeling it, sign-and-trade him in July.
Don't panic now. Do you hear me, Guy Who Traded Pau Gasol Three Weeks
Before The 2008 Trade Deadline? DON'T PANIC NOW.
Toronto Raptors (group B)
2009-10 payroll: $68.2 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $47.5 million (not counting Chris Bosh's
$17.1 million player option for 2010)
� VP's Take: As I wrote last July, there's nothing more dangerous than a
GM worried about his job who dumps the team's long-term interests to
protect the short-term. Everything Bryan Colangelo did last summer
screamed, "I need to keep my job!!!" Now the Raptors are hamstrung with
an overpaid, below-.500 roster that doubles as the worst defensive team
of this decade -- seriously, what did they think would happen when Jose
Calderon, Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani were three of the team's
best four guys? -- and Chris Bosh seems like a mortal lock to leave. You
can't do the Frank Drebin Memorial "Please disperse, nothing to see
here, please disperse" routine. Raptors fans are too smart. They get it.
� Mitigating Factor: By dealing Bosh, Colangelo would be effectively
saying, "I made some mistakes, we need to press the RESET button and
start over." Translation: "Fire me, I deserve it." Since nobody would
ever sabotage their own job like that, he will probably keep Bosh, make
a smaller trade and pray things turn around. If they don't, the Raptors
will get nothing for him. Not fair to the Raptor Truthers. At all.
� VP's Verdict: Bosh doesn't have nearly as much trade value as Chris
Paul because he's a obviously fleeing in six months. Still, they should
be using him to retool and dump the Marcus Banks/Reggie Evans ECs ($9.8
million owed in 2011). A trade like Bosh, Reggie Evans and Marcus Banks
to Houston for T-Mac, Scola, a 2010 No. 1 pick and $3 million makes a
little sense, but Colangelo would never do it. He'd be better off
keeping Bosh and making believe he might stay. One scenario DOES make
sense though �
� Fake Trade 6: Bosh/Evans/Banks to Dallas for Erik Dampier (team option
for 2010-11, making him valuable since he can be used as an EC for a
summer trade to a team that would then waive him to chop payroll) and
Josh Howard (EC). I like this one because it keeps Toronto competitive
for 2009-10 and again this summer if they want to flip Dampier (for
instance, they could send him to New York for a Gallinari/Curry
package). And for Dallas � I mean � could you win the title with Dirk,
Bosh, Marion, Kidd and Terry as your crunch-time five? I feel like you
could. Even with Dirk's hair looking like it does.
And while we're here �
� Fake Trade 7a: Jose Calderon to the Lakers for Adam Morrison
(expiring), Jordan Farmar and $3 million. Time for Toronto to cut the
cord with Calderon (owed $37.5 million through 2013), the league's No. 1
desperately-needs-a-change-of-scenery guy right now. He can't defend
anyone, has lost his mojo and plays with zero confidence against the
Nashes and Pauls. I don't know what happened to him. (And yes, I know
his stats aren't much different than they were in 2007. I just know what
I see.) But in L.A.? He could be rejuvenated as a Steve Kerr-type
shooter in that system; he'd have shotblockers to protect him
defensively; he'd have Phil Jackson rebuilding his confidence and giving
him Gabriel Garcia Marquez books; and he'd get reunited with Team Spain
buddy Pau Gasol. Meanwhile, Toronto makes money this year, saves
2011-2012-2013 cash and doesn't lose much with Farmar and Jarrett Jack
running the show. Win-win.
� Fake Trade 7b: Calderon to the Celtics for Eddie House (expiring),
Tony Allen (expiring), Glen Davis and $3 million. Celts get the third
guard they need; Toronto dumps Calderon's contract, pockets $3 million
and gets a useful banger in Big Baby.
(Crap. That's not nearly as good as the Lakers trade. I feel sick.
Forget I mentioned this.)
New Orleans Hornets (group C)
2009-10 payroll: $73.1 million (OVER TAX)
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $71.8 million (OVER TAX)
� VP's Take: Let's go Hubiespeak for this one. You have Chris Paul, one
of the 10 best players in the league. (The other nine: LeBron, Kobe,
Dirk, 'Melo, Nash, Howard, Wade, and LeBron again. He counts twice.) You
owe Peja Stojakovic, Mo Peterson and Darius Songaila $51.8 million
combined through 2011; you also owe James Posey $21.5 million through
2012. Throwing in the luxury tax (you're over this year and next year),
you're losing eight figures per year to keep Chris Paul on a team that
can't win the title, anyway � and you can't do anything to help his
supporting cast for at least a year. What if someone made you a
Godfather offer for Paul and absorbed your bad contracts? What then?
� Mitigating Factor No. 1: Trading CP3 effectively murders basketball in
New Orleans UNLESS it's a good enough deal. And even then, it's an
attempted murder with a severe loss of blood.
� Mitigating Factor No. 2: They can't use West to solve their tax issues
because Paul would immediately demand out. For instance, let's say
Houston offered them Shane Battier, $3 million and the Brian Cook/Chuck
Hayes ECs for West, Peterson and Ike Diogu's EC. The Hornets would save
$3.2 million in salary, $3.2 million in tax money, then earn another $3
million from the extra cash this season. Next season, they'd save
another $7 million in salary and $5-7 million in tax money. On top of
that, they'd be eligible for tax benefits as an under-the-tax team.
Adding everything up, that trade saves them over $22 million. But what's
the collateral damage? Chris Paul says, "Get me out of here." So they
couldn't go there unless they were ready to move Paul as well.
� Mitigating Factor No. 3: New Orleans has no way to really improve
until the summer of 2011. Won't Paul eventually flee, anyway? What about
the persistent rumor that LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Kobe and Paul made a pact
in Athens to play together some day, with the first three joining forces
in 2010 and the two coming in 2012? What about the fact that I just made
that rumor up and you believed it? Isn't the Internet great?
� VP's Verdict: I'd think about it. But here's what the phrase
"Godfather offer" entails �
Fake Trade 8a: Houston trades Aaron Brooks (expires 2011) with T-Mac,
Scola and Brian Cook (all expire 2010) for Chris Paul and the
Peja-Songaila-Posey cap-killing trio. Considering Houston's deep
pockets, they'd have to do it -- how else can they acquire a top-10
player? And New Orleans would fall under the tax (saving them about
$16-17 million this year, plus another $25-30 million next year) and
replace a decent chunk of Paul's production with a Brooks/Darren
Collison combo.
Fake Trade 8b: Same trade as above, only with Miami giving up three ECs
(Jermaine O'Neal, Mario Chalmers and Dorell Wright) plus Michael
Beasley. Not as good of a deal as the Houston one. Although the thought
of a Wade-Paul backcourt just made me pee on myself.
Fake Trade 8c: Cleveland deals the Shaq/Ilgauskas ECs with Jamario Moon
(expiring 2011), J.J. Hickson (ditto) and Jawad Williams/Darnell Jackson
(EC throw-ins) for CP3, Okafor, Peja, Peterson and Songaila. That knocks
the Hornets well under this year's tax, gets them out of $26.6 million
of Peja-Songaila-Peterson in 2011 AND dumps Okafor's monster deal ($70
million through 2014). Sure, it's the biggest salary dump trade of all
time. But shouldn't New Orleans do the Grizzlies routine for a year or
two (super-low payroll, rebuild through the draft) over losing $25-30
million a year to be a fringe contender these next three years? And if
you're Cleveland, don't you have to take a risk like this to keep LeBron?
Here, look. We built you a super-team: Okafor, Chris Paul, Mo Williams,
you and Varejao, with Delonte West, Anthony Parker and February Buyout
Big Man X coming off the bench. We can win four straight titles with
this team. CP3 makes your life easier. Stay here. Just stay.
He'd have to consider it. Right? Great trade. Also, Knicks fans and
Hornets fans are now drinking. Heavily. And the Cavs fans are doing
shots in celebration. You have to love a fake trade that causes three
different fan bases to immediately switch to hard alcohol.
Washington Wizards (group C)
MILLER LITE
GREAT CALL OF THE WEEK
My buddy House, a lifelong fan of Les Boules, won me over with the Great
Call of the Week. I turn the floor over to him �
Newsflash to no one: Washington's professional basketball franchise
remains as directionless, uninspired and unentertaining as the "Jay Leno
Show." Not altogether surprising, given it hitched itself to a $111
million wagon led by a horse with a bum leg. Agent Zero is passionate,
committed and super-eager to return to All-Star form, just not capable
of it right now. He's still a half-step slow, his stroke isn't all the
way back and he's failed (so far) to earn his usual respect from the
refs, all of which have made him tentative. A worst-case scenario for
your crunch-time guy, hence the repeated end-of-game fails (although --
silver lining -- we have Earl Boykins back in our lives!).
With our "leader" searching for himself, is it any surprise that this is
a team in dire need of an identity? BRING BACK THE BULLETS. Let's return
"Wizards" to the exclusive domain of the soccer team in Kansas City.
Sure, our 1997 name change was motivated by a noble anti-violence
impulse. But "Wizards" was the least interesting/inspiring of the
choices and has nothing to do with D.C., a town with a sneaky-deep
tradition and hard-core love for excellent basketball. The area's high
school teams regularly rank among the tops in the nation, and
college/pro teams throughout the land are populated with talent from in
and around the Chocolate City. Does anyone know D.C. spawned Elgin
Baylor, George Raveling, Dave Bing, Adrian Dantley, Michael Beasley and
Kevin Durant? You certainly wouldn't know by the atmosphere at Wiz games.
We need to reconnect this team to the city. Bring the red, white and
blues back to the nation's capital. Get an updated version of this song
cooked up immediately. Give us live go-go music at every game -- it's
only the city's most prominent cultural export (just ahead of Samuel L.
Jackson). Take advantage of D.C.'s young-and-hip status right now -- we
have our own "Real World," Reggie Love, Alex Ovechkin and Stephen
Strasburg. (Hey, it's a start.) Let's make the Wizards yesterday's news
and bury them in a public funeral during All-Star Weekend. An
unprecedented gimmick? Sure. So what? This is the town of "Yes We Can."
Bring back the Bullets. That's my Great Call of the Week.
2009-10 payroll: $78.5 million (OVER TAX)
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $53.2 million
� VP's Take: Would anyone like Gilbert Arenas at a steep discount?
That's what I thought. (Check the sidebar to the right for my buddy
House's sad take.) The way he's played this year, he might have to
change his nickname from Agent Zero to The Chalk Outline. That leaves
Plan B: packaging Caron Butler ($20.3M through 2011) with Antwan Jamison
($39M through 2012) to lower this year's luxury tax, defray future
payroll and go with Arenas and the kids.
� Mitigating Factor: Like Colangelo, embattled Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld
can't hit the RESET button because he'd be effectively resigning with
pay. But still. Every Wizards fan is ready to see this team blown up.
When I threw the idea at House, he chewed on it a little, then asked,
"Do I get a new GM out of it?" (Yes.) "Then please blow it up. I want to
build around our 2009 lottery pick that we gave away. I hate being a
Wizards fan. Put that in your column."
� VP's Verdict: I'd clean house. What would Cleveland say if Washington
offered them Jamison, Butler and Brendan Haywood for Shaq's expiring
contract and J.J. Hickson? What would Miami say if Washington offered
them the same trade for Jermaine O'Neal and a 2010 No. 1? My favorite of
the possibles �
Fake Trade 9 (three-way): Wizards get Carlos Boozer and Shaq; Utah gets
Butler and Mike James' EC; Cavs get Jamison, Haywood and Kyle Korver's
EC. Utah drops close to the tax line. Cleveland upgrades two positions
for nothing. And Washington remains competitive this season and gets to
start over financially next summer. Just enough to string fans along in
case the Chalk Outline rises from the sidewalk.
(By the way, have you noticed all the different ways Cleveland can
improve over these next two months? As a Celtics fan, I am getting
progressively more terrified as this column keeps going. And I was
already scared. Did you see them blow away Phoenix with smallball and
LeBron playing power forward the other night? That was the best quarter
I've seen any team play this season. As I tweeted that night,
Cleveland's smallball lineup is poop-in-your-pants terrifying. Thank God
Mike Brown hasn't noticed.)
Detroit Pistons (group C)
2009-10 payroll: $58.6 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $55.6 million
� VP's Take: A confusing mess of overpaid perimeter guys and underpaid
perimeter guys, with a mildly rejuvenated Ben Wallace thrown in, as well
as a dude named "Jonas Jerebko," the first NBA player whose name could
double as a USA Network pilot. And they're losing fistfuls of money at
the gate. A prime candidate to shed payroll.
� Mitigating Factor: Joe Dumars is the most perplexing GM in the league.
The 2004 title run was amazing. The Darko/Carmelo pick was horrific.
Dumping Billups, then overpaying Hamilton, made no sense as a tandem
move. Dropping $94 million on two offense-only guys (Ben Gordon and
Charlie Villanueva) was a head-scratcher. And yet, he nails little
things, like signing Will Bynum and stealing Jerebko in Round 2 (I'm a
fan). Just a lot going on. I can't figure him out. He is Mr. Hit or Miss.
� VP's Verdict: Nobody is biting on Hamilton's contract ($49 million
through 2013) or Jason Maxiell's deal ($20 million through 2013). That
leaves Tayshaun Prince (21.4 million through 2011), who's recovering
from a ruptured disc right now. (Enticing!) Still, they could save some
cash and chop 2011 money by either doing �
Fake Trade 10: Tayshaun and DaJuan Summers (cap throw-in) to Boston for
the Tony Allen/Brian Scalabrine/J.R. Giddens expirings plus Big Baby and
$3 million. Imagine the Celts tossing out a defensive quintet of Pierce,
Rondo, Prince (if healthy), KG and Perkins? Now that's a championship
quintet! Worth the risk, I say.
(Note: I would have swapped Rasheed Wallace for Perkins there, but it's
tough to frighten teams defensively when your center has man-boobs. Hey
Rasheed, when do you plan on getting in shape for the season? It's
Christmas. Do we have an ETA yet? February? March? Could you let us know?)
Philadelphia 76ers (group C)
2009-10 payroll: $64.0 million
Projected 2010-11 Payroll: $65.3 million (OVER TAX)
� VP's Take: No chance of dumping Elton Brand or Sam Dalembert unless
they include Andre Iguodala in the deal.
� Mitigating Factor: This is the same front office that (A) spent $85
million on Brand, and (B) took two weeks to realize that signing Allen
Iverson might boost ticket sales and local interest. Not exactly a bunch
of Mensa scholars here.
� VP's Verdict: Shop Iguodala-Brand-Dalembert for expirings. (Their only
chance: If Wade threatens to leave unless Miami does something by the
deadline, so Miami bites on an Iguodala-Brand-Dalembert for
O'Neal-Haslem-Richardson. Odds of this happening: 10-to-1.) After every
team hangs up, call an audible and shop Iguodala and Dalembert as a
package. Iguodala isn't worth the franchise max for a bad team, but if
he's your second- or third-best player on a contender with deep pockets,
it's not the worst thing in the world. He's not making or breaking the
Sixers. He doesn't sell tickets. Doesn't that make him expendable?
Leading us to �
Fake Trade 11: Philly trades Dalembert, Iguodala and Jason Kapono's EC
to Miami for the O'Neal/Richardson/Wright expirings. Philly ends up with
their fifth overpaid has-been frontcourt player this decade (joining
Mutombo, Webber, Coleman and Brand in what's becoming a tradition right
up there with Easter and Thanksgiving); Quentin Richardson adds another
team in his quest to play for all 30; Kapono ends up back in Miami, a
nostalgic romp for all 43 Heat fans; and Miami becomes a fringe
contender with a Wade-Iguodala-Dalembert-Beasley nucleus. This one makes
too much sense.
Sacramento Kings (group C)
2009-10 payroll: $53.4 million
Projected 2010-11 payroll: $40.7 million
� VP's verdict: In a position of strength, if that's possible: They have
a potential superstar in Tyreke Evans, only he's definitely not a point
guard � which means he plays the same position as the best guy on their
team (Kevin Martin, currently injured). And Martin's favorable contract
($46 million through 2013) gives him real value despite his bad luck
with dopey injuries. I'd compare him to Jeff Hornacek in the earl '90s
-- a very good offensive player who'd be even better on a contender.
� Mitigating Factor: None. After a shaky decade, the Kings are on a
red-hot front-office run and T.J. Lavin'ed their last two drafts. I
thought Rubio/Evans would haunt them; if anything, it totally
invigorated them.
(Important note: Dismissing Evans' potential was my single biggest
column-related misfire this decade, and I'm the same guy who thought
Orlando was crazy for taking Howard over Okafor. In my draft diary, I
wrote the joke, "(Stu) Scott on Evans: 'His nickname is 'Hugo' because
he was born during Hurricane Hugo.' That pick was a natural disaster.
Literally." The whole debacle mortally wounded my chances to become a GM
someday. I'm not gonna lie. Evans has a chance to be a top-10 player
some day. Although I still believe I was correct with one thing: In no
way, shape or form is he a point guard. You will never sell me on that one.)
� VP's verdict: Package Martin with Kenny Thomas' expiring contract for
future assets. Biggest no-brainer of this column. Move now. For example �
Fake Trade 12: Martin/Thomas to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko (expires
2011), Kyle Korver's EC, $3 million (not a problem because Utah still
saves $3.2 million with the difference in salaries, plus another $3.2
million in luxury tax money) and the rights to New York's unprotected
No. 1 pick in 2010.
(Hold on, we have to wait a few seconds for every Knicks fan to stop
shaking his or her head. Just a few more seconds. Hold on. Hold on. Hold
on. And � we're good.)
I love this trade. For one thing, a Martin-Deron Williams backcourt
would be loads of fun (shades of Utah teaming Hornacek and Stockton back
in the day). Utah gets damned close to being under the luxury tax.
Sacramento gets a gigantic expiring contract for next year (Kirilenko's
$17.8 million), another scrappy, balls-to-the-wall guy (Kirilenko
again), an official "this is your team" announcement to Evans AND a
lottery ticket for the John Wall Sweepstakes.
Everyone wins. You can't say that too often during Year 2 of the No
Benjamins Association.
$Bill
>> Lakers incur the luxury tax with impunity as do the Yankees. The
>> Lakers' payroll this season is around $91M this year (according to
>> hoopshype.com; #1 in the NBA). For the 13 players on that list, that's
>> an average of 7M per player. The Yankees payroll this past season was
>> $208M according to ESPN (always overinflated but we'll take it) and
>> that is for 27 players, an average of 7.7M per player. That is only
>> 10% more per player than the Lakers. Now, if we divide by number of
>> games played...
>>
>
> And I didn't even mention revenue.
Well, except for the pitcher and catcher, baseball players don't do a
lot now do they. But they are committed for twice the games. I'm
always amazed at the number of non-battery injuries in baseball
compared to the much higher contact NBA. Like Carlin says, it's a
pastoral sport.
Dewey
news:hh93ug$dm5$1...@news.eternal-september.org:
Not much running into walls or getting spiked by a sliding baserunner in
baseketball though.
VicXnews
news:Xns9CEEEB93BD361de...@130.133.4.11:
> Not much running into walls
the traffic cone on line 1....
mayner
IDN, man. Some of those 4's and 5's in the league are built like
freaking walls. ;-)
Dewey
news:81cij5p1k2rts9rr9...@4ax.com:
And they move, unlike the outfield fences.