ESPN Hot Stove Heaters Report
Jeff W.
By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com
2000 in review
What went right?
Alex Rodriguez didn't win the MVP Award, but he may have been the best
player in the league. Venerable DH Edgar Martinez led the AL with 145 RBI.
Kazuhiro Sasaki came over from Japan and solved Seattle's longtime closer
problems by converting 37 of 40 save chances. The starters won 71 games,
tied for second-most in baseball. Won the wild card on the final day of the
season and swept the White Sox in the Division Series before losing to the
Yankees in the ALCS.
What went wrong?
M's got subpar production from second base and third base. Dan Wilson had
another bad year with the bat. Young starters Freddy Garcia (broken leg) and
Gil Meche (sore shoulder) both missed time with injuries. Jamie Moyer broke
his kneecap right before the playoffs. Arthur Rhodes served a big one up to
David Justice in Game 6.
In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Pat Gillick's offseason signings. Aaron Sele won 17 games and John Olerud
drove in 103 runs. Rhodes, Stan Javier and Mark McLemore added much-needed
depth.
2. Sticking with Sasaki. He was 1-4 with a 4.50 ERA through May and nearly
lost his closer's job. But he converted 27 of his final 28 save
opportunities and held opposing hitters to a .155 average after the All-Star
break.
3. Sticking with Jay Buhner for one more year. After two injury-riddled
seasons, the M's brought Buhner back at a discounted rate and he drove in 82
runs in just 364 at-bats.
Looking ahead to 2001
Three key questions:
1. How good will Ichiro Suzuki be? He won seven straight batting titles in
Japan and hit .387 last year. Nobody else was within 40 points of him. He's
not a power hitter, but needs to give Seattle topflight production from the
leadoff spot.
2. How bad will the offense be from the infield? John Olerud always provides
a solid on-base percentage, but the rest of the infield could be horrible:
Bret Boone (.326), David Bell (.316) and Carlos Guillen (.324) all struggled
to get on base.
3. Does Pat Gillick have something up his sleeve? The Mariners appear to
have depth in the rotation and bullpen to acquire another bat.
Can expect to play better
Garcia should again approach the 17 wins he registered as a rookie and if he
can improve his K/BB ratio, his ERA should go down. Jamie Moyer's ERA was
ruined by an 0-5, 9.84 August. He's capable of improving upon his 5.49
season mark. Carlos Guillen hit .257 overall, but .296 after the All-Star
break.
Can expect to play worse
Dan Wilson needs a fork put in him. Sasaki had the best save percentage in
the majors last year. Without Alex Rodriguez in front of him, don't expect
Edgar Martinez to drive in 145 runs again. Will Jay Buhner produce at his
2000 level (.522 slugging, 82 RBI) or at his 1998-99 level (83 RBI
combined)?
Projected lineup
RF Ichiro Suzuki
SS Carlos Guillen
1B John Olerud
DH Edgar Martinez
LF Jay Buhner / Al Martin
CF Mike Cameron
2B Bret Boone
3B David Bell
C Dan Wilson / Tom Lampkin / Chris Widger
Rotation
Freddy Garcia
Aaron Sele
Jamie Moyer
Gil Meche
John Halama / Paul Abbott
Closer
Kazuhiro Sasaki
A closer look
Last year's Mariners, at least on paper, didn't appear to have much of an
offense. Sure, they had Alex Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez as the heart of
the order, but their leadoff hitters combined to hit a paltry .243 and the
back of the lineup was filled with the non-threatening likes of David Bell,
Dan Wilson and Mark McLemore.
The Mariners hit just .269, 12th in the league. They hit 198 home runs,
seventh in the league. Yet they scored 907 runs, fourth in the league,
despite playing in Safeco Field, which played as a great park for pitchers.
Heck, by one measure they may have been the best offensive team in the
league: they led the AL in runs scored on the road.
How did they do it? Simple. The Mariners drew 775 walks, tied for the
fourth-most in history and the most since the 1949 Red Sox set the all-time
record with 835.
Still, everybody is saying the 2001 Mariners will have great pitching and a
terrible offense, especially with the departure of Alex Rodriguez. How good
will Seattle's offense will be in 2001? Let's compare each position from
2000 production vs. expected 2001 production. There are five positions where
the offensive production should be relatively unchanged. From the team stats
page, we can see the combined totals for each position:
Catcher: .303 OBP, .425 SLG. Dan Wilson is still the starter with Chris
Widger and Tom Lampkin the backups. The M's would be wise to keep Wilson
permanently on the bench, but don't count on it.
First base: .388 OBP, .438 SLG. John Olerud returns and should produce
similar numbers.
Third base: .320 OBP, .384 SLG. David Bell and Carlos Guillen split the
position last year. Once again, offense looks to be a problem here.
Center field: .367 OBP, .446 SLG. Mike Cameron had a solid year. Look for
the same.
Designated hitter: .427 OBP, .581 SLG. The great Edgar Martinez can flat-out
hit.
OK, that leaves four positions with new players. Let's see how they shape
up.
Second base. Mark McLemore and David Bell got the playing time last year,
combining for a .343 on-base percentage, but a terrible .348 slugging
percentage. The M's are going the opposite route this year. Bret Boone gets
on base less, but hits for more power. Using Bill James' runs created
method, Mariner second basemen created about 79 runs last year. Using
projected totals from the Stats Inc. Major League Handbook, we can project
Boone at about 76 runs. Net total: -3 runs.
Left field: Rickey Henderson and Stan Javier got on base last year (.355
OBP) but had no power (.355 slugging). Overall, the .710 OPS was subpar for
left field. Jay Buhner and Al Martin will hit for more power and still draw
their share of walks. This should be an improvement. Net total: +18 runs.
Shortstop: Carlos Guillen steps in. Alex Rodriguez created about 136 runs
last year, according to Stats Inc.. Guillen added a few more in his games at
shortstop. Using Guillen's projected 2001 numbers (.271, 14 home runs, .332
OBP, .400 slugging), we get about 82 runs created. Net total: -67 runs.
Right field: Buhner, Javier and others combined for a .327 OBP and .442
slugging percentage last year -- about 92 runs created. The new right
fielder is Japanese star Ichiro Suzuki. How will he do? It's a wild card,
but thanks to our friends at the Baseball Prospectus, we can make a good
guess. BP estimates Suzuki as producing similar numbers to Johnny Damon:
.329 average, .386 OBP, .484 slugging. That translates to about 111 runs
created over 600 at-bats. Net total: +19 runs.
Combining the four positions, we get a net loss of about 33 runs, not the
drastic drop many expect. That would move the Mariners from fourth in the
league in scoring to seventh. Of course, that is leaning heavily on a
healthy Edgar Martinez and a productive Ichiro Suzuki. What's interesting is
Seattle's walks -- the key to their offense in 2000 -- will take a severe
hit in 2001. Second base, shortstop, left field and right field will all see
a lower total in the walk column.
Still, the pitching could be even stronger this year and counteract the loss
in runs scored. The Mariners should once again be in the thick of the
playoff chase.
David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.
Brian Thornton
>Seattle Mariners
>By David Schoenfield
>ESPN.com
*snip*
>Shortstop: Carlos Guillen steps in. Alex Rodriguez created about 136 runs
>last year, according to Stats Inc.. Guillen added a few more in his games at
>shortstop. Using Guillen's projected 2001 numbers (.271, 14 home runs, .332
>OBP, .400 slugging), we get about 82 runs created. Net total: -67 runs.
Ok is there something I'm missing here? I am admittedly not a
stathead, so let me as this:
If A-Rod created 136 runs last year, and
Guillen is projected to create 82,
And
136 - 82 = 54
So where does David Schoenfield come up with -67 runs? If this is an
error, then they don't lose 30-something projected runs, they lose
20-something. A bit of a difference?
Puzzledly,
Brian
Hsberman
>Ok is there something I'm missing here? I am admittedly not a
>stathead, so let me as this:
>
>If A-Rod created 136 runs last year, and
>Guillen is projected to create 82,
>
>And
>
>136 - 82 = 54
>
>So where does David Schoenfield come up with -67 runs? If this is an
>error, then they don't lose 30-something projected runs, they lose
>20-something. A bit of a difference?
>
>Puzzledly,
>
>Brian
Because ARod missed a couple of weeks, and Guillen filled in. So the runs
created at the shortstop position were more than just those created by ARod...
Henry
Michael: Dave II, Electric Boogaloo
following:
The production at SS through all 162 games (most of which were played by
Alex, some of which were not)
vs.
The production of Carlos Guillen for a full 162 games this year based on his
projected stats.
Alex's replacements must have created 13 runs in his absence.
Michael
"Brian Thornton" <tier...@mindspring.com> wrote in message
news:3a779bc3...@news.mindspring.com...
Brian Thornton
Hsberman
It does if you look at the question that was being asked. The question was,
what kind of production will the M's get at shortshop in 2001 compared to 2000.
To get that answer, he looked at the total runs created by those who played
shortstop in 2000 (Arod for 90% of the games, Guillen for the rest) and came up
with a number. Then he looked at a projection of how many runs will be created
by those who will be playing shortstop in 2001 (and he assume Guillen will play
all 162 games, because there is no real basis for any other assumption), and
subtracted the two.
Remember he was trying to show how many runs the Mariners will score in 2001 as
compared to 2000. He was not trying to show how many runs they "lost" by
losing ARod.
Henry
Delahg
>From: "Michael: Dave II, Electric Boogaloo" mich...@isomedia.com
>Date: 1/30/01 10:21 PM
>Alex's replacements must have created 13 runs in his absence.
Yes, and if David Schoenfield had said something like, "and 13 more from
Alex's replacements, totalling 149 from the SS position" we wouldn't have all
this.
[Surely, there's a message here, something about never sacrificing clarity
for brevity.]
John D.
Hsberman
>Alex's replacements, totalling 149 from the SS position" we wouldn't have all
>this.
> [Surely, there's a message here, something about never sacrificing clarity
>for brevity.]
>
>John D.
Well, actually he did... But then when he did the math at the end, he didn't
repeat that point.
Henry
Brian Thornton
me (an English teacher trained to read for content) believing he was
talking about how many runs they were losing with Rodriquez going,
because I dont recall him talking about total shortstop position
production, the way he did with, say, right field, where he talked
about Buhner, Javier, and others.
See what I'm saying?
Brian
Michael: Dave II, Electric Boogaloo
> Perhaps that was what he was trying to communicate, Henry, but he left
> me (an English teacher trained to read for content) believing he was
> talking about how many runs they were losing with Rodriquez going,
> because I dont recall him talking about total shortstop position
> production, the way he did with, say, right field, where he talked
> about Buhner, Javier, and others.
>
> See what I'm saying?
I kind of agree with you here...except that he was doing a position by
position break down. For example, he compared RF with Buhner etc. to RF
with Ichiro, and then used Buhner's numbers in LF (since that's where he'll
be playing). I think that his method is consistent, that is, comparing the
production the Mariners got from a particular position to the production
they might expect to get from those same positions. It's kind of the only
way to deal with things like Buhner moving to LF.
Michael
[snip]