John Manuel comments on the NYY system
BadgerBC
Joba and IPK are again eligible for the BA rankings (Probably means
they're 1 and 2). Manuel feels Horne would be the best candidate as
the next impact rookie. He really touted him as he said the scouts
thought Alan had four plus pitches (and 93-96mph). He also considers
Mark Melancon as another possible impact rookie. Manuel also did a
turnaround on Austin Jackson (who btw is doing very well in Hawaii).
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nybaseballtalk/2007/11/18/Top-10-Prospects-
GaryFL
Happy holidays. Do you think it's a good idea to give Rodriguez a 10
year contract?
saxmaniac
fill the seats.
"GaryFL" <xx...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:4q39k3514hksvsffl...@4ax.com...
BadgerBC
> On Wed, 21 Nov 2007 02:49:24 -0800 (PST), BadgerBC
>
Happy holidays to you and your family as well. I really don't know.
He was a very tough guy to root for before this nonsense and now it
looks like we're stuck with him for the duration. My guess is that
he's always kept himself in great shape like Winnie so hopefully he'll
break all the records (not just the HR but it's possible he'll break
RBI, runs and possibly reach 4000 hits) and become a cash cow for the
franchise. Still, the bottom line is that even though he's a
douchebag, he's still A-Rod and we have to be crazy not to want him on
our team. On paper it's a no-brainer, but at this point it's hard not
to let my personal feeling color my judgment.
Heyman said he believed the Halos and the Dodgers were likely going to
offer 10/300mil range. My read on this was that A-Rod lost his nerve
and folded too soon (probably Lowell rumor had something to do with
it). When was the last time you saw a Boras client sign with anyone
before the end of the winter meetings? He approached the Yanks two
days into the FA period when teams could start discussing numbers.
That couldn't have been something Boras would've recommended
Zoolander
> Nope. The Yanks are a business and they had to overpay Arod to continue to
> fill the seats.
>
A-Rod deal is still a revenue winner for Yanks
By Jorge L. Ortiz, USA TODAY
ALL APPEARS WELL WITH the New York Yankees- Alex Rodriguez
relationship. Some fences have been mended. He has agreed to the
parameters of a 10-year, $275 million contract, according to a person
directly involved in the negotiations. Both sides seem close to
toasting the happy pairing.
The deal would set a record for the largest guaranteed payout in
American sports, breaking the mark of $252 million Rodriguez had
established when he signed with the Rangers after the 2000 season.
A-Rod has not publicly explained his reasons for opting out of the
contract in late October. In Monday's conference call after he was
announced as the 2007 American League MVP, Rodriguez refused to
address offseason issues other than to say, "All I can tell you is
that the discussions went really well with my wife and the
Steinbrenner family last week."
From all indications, the Yankees and A-Rod are a match made in
heaven, at least from a financial standpoint. With a $189.6 million
opening-day payroll last season, tops in baseball, New York could
absorb his salary without losing maneuverability. After all, the
Yankees lured Roger Clemens back in May with a prorated deal worth
about $18.5 million.
More significant to the team than salaries, however, is that
Rodriguez's ability to generate revenue is maximized by the Yankees'
status as the most prestigious franchise in baseball, and arguably in
all of sports, and their location in the world's largest media market.
Sports economists Andrew Zimbalist and Vince Gennaro emphasize
Rodriguez is worth more to the Yankees than to any other franchise,
which makes the team uniquely qualified to meet his salary demands.
"I thought it was possible he would return to New York because no
other team was in position to justify paying him what the Yankees
could pay," says Zimbalist, the author of several books on sports
business. "It would have had to be a substantial overreach outside of
New York."
Rodriguez's contract could be worth $304 million with incentives,
according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Gennaro, a
consultant to the Cleveland Indians and author of the new book Diamond
Dollar$-- The Economics of Winning in Baseball, lists six teams that
could have afforded to pay Rodriguez up to $30 million a year and
still break even on that investment, provided they made the playoffs
every year: the Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs,
Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels.
The Yankees stand to make the most from his presence -- about $45
million annually, by Gennaro's calculations, based on a formula that
takes into account attendance, broadcast fees, concessions,
merchandising and other forms of revenue. They're also likely the only
club that can afford to pay a luxury tax and still recoup its
investment on Rodriguez.
The biggest factor in the equation?
"A-Rod's ability to contribute eight or nine wins on the playing field
to a team that can turn those wins into a playoff spot," says Gennaro,
adding that it makes no financial sense for non-contenders to take on
such a high-salaried player. "When a team reaches the postseason,
there's a windfall of revenues that get unlocked within the next
three, four, five years."
He cites the Detroit Tigers as an example, pointing out their season-
ticket base went from 9,000 in 2006 to 18,500 this year, the season
after they reached the World Series.
Because a large percentage of those season tickets figure to be
renewed, especially if the team stays competitive, Gennaro estimates
the value of the Tigers' appearance in the Series at $35 million over
three to five years.
OF COURSE, THE YANKEES haven't made the World Series in the four
seasons since they acquired Rodriguez to play third base, and his
postseason miseries -- a .159 average and one RBI in first-round exits
the last three years -- are well-chronicled.
"He's arguably the best player that will ever have played the game,"
says ESPN analyst Steve Phillips, the Mets general manager from 1997
to 2003. "I do believe he's that good, postseason numbers aside. But
we have found that individuals don't guarantee anything to a team.
"If you have to sacrifice your team in multiple other areas to afford
that single salary and put it into your overall budget, that doesn't
lead to winning."
So why do it? Wouldn't a team be better off splitting the cost of an A-
Rod into, say, a Torii Hunter and a Luis Castillo?
The answer depends on a team's needs, and those can't always be
addressed through the free agent market, especially a thin one like
this year's. Plus, acquiring two appealing players might not generate
as much buzz and excitement among prospective season-ticket buyers as
making a big splash with a huge signing.
"If you look at (the Cubs' Alfonso) Soriano and (Carlos) Zambrano,
they average (about) 18 a year. That's $36 million," Brewers GM Doug
Melvin says. "Some people might say I'd rather have A-Rod than the two
of them."
And then there are individual team needs. Of the clubs Gennaro listed
as possible suitors for Rodriguez, only the Dodgers and Angels (in
addition to the Yankees) are potentially seeking a third baseman.
(When Sports Weekly went to press, the Red Sox had reached a
preliminary agreement with free agent third baseman Mike Lowell on a
three-year, $37.5 million contract, according to two people familiar
with the negotiations who spoke to the Associated Press on condition
of anonymity because the deal had not yet been finalized.) "He has to
be the last piece of the puzzle for this to make any sense at all, and
on top of that they probably have to be in a reasonably sized market,"
Gennaro says. "Those are two necessary ingredients."
It wasn't just the exorbitant cost and the impact on the payroll that
made pursuing A-Rod a challenge. For all the sophisticated tools
available to clubs gauging a player's value, many rely on comparisons
with the salaries of similar players -- essentially the same approach
employed in the arbitration process.
"There is no formula," Mets GM Omar Minaya says. "You look at the
impact the player has on your club on the field and off the field."
As a three-time MVP in his prime (he's 32) and the game's highest-paid
player by far, Rodriguez has no real basis for comparison. Nobody
else's contract averages more than $20 million a year.
Even the top-paid players in the NBA and NFL -- Kevin Garnett's average
of $22 million a year and Peyton Manning's $14 million -- fall short of
making A-Rod money.
AGENT SCOTT BORAS has cited what he calls Rodriguez's "iconic value"
and his potential as a ratings draw -- particularly for teams with
their own regional sports network -- in presenting the case for his
salary demands.
Economists agree such factors, as well as the extra attention and
revenue generated by the pursuit of a significant milestone like the
all-time home run record, can have an impact on a team's bottom line.
"If a business spent a lot of money on a high-priced CEO or on a
talented filmmaker if you're a Hollywood studio, or tens of millions
of dollars on a star, and they turn your fortunes around, people say
that's money well spent," says Gary Gillette, co-chair of the Business
of Baseball Committee for the Society for American Baseball Research
(SABR). "In baseball, fans love to hate guys who make a lot of money,
and they like to see them fail."
That might be in part because, in a team sport where a 30% success
rate for hitters is considered great, individual players are not
deemed to make a huge difference. Citing statistics in the ESPN
Baseball Encyclopedia, which he edits, Gillette said A-Rod ranked
second in the AL last season in "player wins" above the average
performer with 5.2. So a .500 team would be boosted to 86-76 with him
and a 90-win team would improve to 95-67, possibly the difference
between making the playoffs and staying home. (For a definition of a
player win, see the chart on Page 32.)
Indians GM Mark Shapiro, whose meager payroll (it was $61 million last
season) doesn't allow him to ponder A-Rod, employs a combination of
modern tools like statistical analysis with old-fashioned scouting in
making player-acquisition decisions.
He says every team values players differently, but they all try to
figure out how much each player will contribute to winning. Some of
the factors clubs take into consideration include skills, injury
history, personality, past performance, future projections and cost.
"Ultimately, what you're trying to decide is the marginal improvement
in wins that player provides you over your replacement, and that's the
value that player brings to your team," Shapiro says.
Number crunchers have come up with several equations that attempt to
translate a player's contributions into victories, though there's no
consensus on which one works best.
There is, however, a strong general belief in the correlation between
a team's on-field success and box-office appeal, regardless of its
"iconic value" quotient.
"I don't care if it's Babe Ruth; if he's playing on a 72-win team,
he's only going to draw so many fans to watch him perform," Gennaro
says. "Winning trumps the star in baseball any day."
GaryFL
It's such a complicated deal in every way. But I wish they would have
let him leave. Between Rodriguez and Jeter the focus is going to
become chasing "records" and the on going soap opera rather then
winning.
The two of them if they aren't already will be the worst defensive
SS/3B defensive combo in MLB soon - they may already be - and the team
is supposedly being built around young pitching. Rodriguez is a bad
3rd basemen his range especially going to his right is as limited as
Jeter's.
In the short term they desperately needed Rodriguez, Posada and
Mariano all back. Posada and Mariano each got a severance year because
Cashman rolled the dice and lost. No big deal really they earned it
for past services. But 10 years for a 32 year old? I don't care how
hard he works after year 5 at the latest this contract is going to be
worse then Giambi's IMO.
I guess this is price for the after 2000 George GM years. The system
is still 2 or 3 years away from feeding everything they need to make
the next run but the pieces seem to be going into place.
The one thing that worries me is Hank. His quote about Mariano "I
wanted him back" scares the hell out of . Not we, I. I'm worried that
Hank I wants Santana a little too much and I'm more worried that Hank
thinks he's the new GM.
If the Yankees trade Hughes it's back to Steinbrenner business as
usual. Kennedy is a different story IMO. For Peavy or Santana or
Bedard Kennedy can be included IMO. But not for position players and
Hughes shouldn't be traded for anyone. Someone should tie Hank to a
chair and make him watch Hughes 7 inning no hitter in Texas 10 times
in a row. I think he's been fooled by the after injury Hughes who was
good but not great. I know I'm in the minority but I like Hughes more
then Joba and Joba is clearly a #1 starter.
honder
More like chasing "entertainment dollars".
>
> The two of them if they aren't already will be the worst defensive
> SS/3B defensive combo in MLB soon - they may already be - and the team
> is supposedly being built around young pitching. Rodriguez is a bad
> 3rd basemen his range especially going to his right is as limited as
> Jeter's.
I'm not sure A-Rod is as bad as you say. Besides, the two of them might
age themselves into less demanding positions. LF, 1B, DH for example.
>
> In the short term they desperately needed Rodriguez, Posada and
> Mariano all back. Posada and Mariano each got a severance year because
> Cashman rolled the dice and lost. No big deal really they earned it
> for past services. But 10 years for a 32 year old? I don't care how
> hard he works after year 5 at the latest this contract is going to be
> worse then Giambi's IMO.
He's a soap opera star besides the baseball. The Yankees will have a
clause in his contract that demands he takes his shirt off in Central
Park once a season. And say boo to the SS while running out a pop up.
NY will get all the value they can get out of this deal. He's a flake
but he does play hard.
>
> I guess this is price for the after 2000 George GM years. The system
> is still 2 or 3 years away from feeding everything they need to make
> the next run but the pieces seem to be going into place.
>
> The one thing that worries me is Hank. His quote about Mariano "I
> wanted him back" scares the hell out of . Not we, I. I'm worried that
> Hank I wants Santana a little too much and I'm more worried that Hank
> thinks he's the new GM.
>
He's a wildcard.
> If the Yankees trade Hughes it's back to Steinbrenner business as
> usual. Kennedy is a different story IMO. For Peavy or Santana or
> Bedard Kennedy can be included IMO. But not for position players and
> Hughes shouldn't be traded for anyone. Someone should tie Hank to a
> chair and make him watch Hughes 7 inning no hitter in Texas 10 times
> in a row. I think he's been fooled by the after injury Hughes who was
> good but not great. I know I'm in the minority but I like Hughes more
> then Joba and Joba is clearly a #1 starter.
I too think Phlop is too good to trade.
honder
Bwana Jim
with you that Hughes stuff makes him a potential number1. The kid is so
young and he did really well considering the injury he had. Joba also
projects as a possible number 1. Kennedy seems to mix very well with the
other 2 with his different style of pitching from the others. If this Horne
kid is close to the other 3 then the team is really in a good position.
Other teams have gotten used to just reaming the Yankees out when they trade
with them so Cashman might ought to just sit tight and see how the kids do.
Sure Santana is a great player but the cost for him will be too much.
Pepe Papon
wrote:
>Other teams have gotten used to just reaming the Yankees out when they trade
>with them so Cashman might ought to just sit tight and see how the kids do.
That's been changing the past two seasons. now that Cashman has gained
control from the Tampa dolts. I have a lot more faith than I used to
that the Yanks will sit tight and avoid getting reamed.
honder
> Other teams have gotten used to just reaming the Yankees out when they trade
> with them so Cashman might ought to just sit tight and see how the kids do.
> Sure Santana is a great player but the cost for him will be too much.
>
>
What significant players have the Yankees been duped out of in the
recent past? In another thread I tried to figure that out. The only
players NY developed that were usable were Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera and
Ted Lilly. Some others should have been traded for better players (I
hated Vasquez for R. Johnson) but I didn't see them get reamed.
honder
Erasmus "The Mannequin" Brown
"honder" <che...@thestadium.com> wrote in message
news:47478e6b$0$2308$4c36...@roadrunner.com...
The World Series MVP.
honder
fault they didn't pan out. Now, if they traded him for a 45 yr old
Willie McCovey or Gates Brown then it would have been a shame.
honder
Thermos
I don't think you can consider that being duped. They knew they were
trading a valuable prospect, but when they signed Brosius they had to
trade him. They took a chance on a package of 3 arms, hoping one would
pan out and it didn't work.
Erasmus "The Mannequin" Brown
Oh, I see. Well, nothing they got really helped the team.
Erasmus "The Mannequin" Brown
"Thermos" <cfb...@adelphia.net> wrote in message
news:Ygf2j.14195$Mg1.9365@trndny03...
Not duped, but the trade didn't work for them.
BadgerBC
> It's such a complicated deal in every way. But I wish they would have
> let him leave. Between Rodriguez and Jeter the focus is going to
> become chasing "records" and the on going soap opera rather then
> winning.
>
I agree. Despite all those sacrifice bunts we know Jeter isn't above
going for HRs (remember 1998? Torre called it just right when he
thought Derek was going for HRs and it hurt him in late August and
September). This is where I think Girardi could be better suited than
Torre who practically is Derek's second father. I'm hopeful Girardi
is tough enough (I suspect he might be) to be like Davey Johnson to
ask Derek to consider a position change. Of course Cashman has to
start thinking about getting an interim player somewhere (unless AG or
Pena somehow shows they could hit a little). As for A-Rod, I agree
there is a danger of him scuffling at the wrong time (say he's
approaching 600 in the middle of a pennant race). One good thing is
Kevin Long who has Alex's trust will be here as Cashman extended him
three years. Hopefully, he'll keep Alex honest during such stretches.
> The two of them if they aren't already will be the worst defensive
> SS/3B defensive combo in MLB soon - they may already be - and the team
> is supposedly being built around young pitching. Rodriguez is a bad
> 3rd basemen his range especially going to his right is as limited as
> Jeter's.
Rodriguez was the worst in 2006 but he rebounded somewhat this
season. We'll have to see if this is the baseline or not. In 2004 he
was darn good and was around average in 2005 before collapsing in
2006. Jeter was limping around on his bad left knee all season long.
I'm skeptical because his age, but that could've been the reason why
he was a statue out there this season. Regardless, they have to move
him soon.
>
> In the short term they desperately needed Rodriguez, Posada and
> Mariano all back. Posada and Mariano each got a severance year because
> Cashman rolled the dice and lost. No big deal really they earned it
> for past services. But 10 years for a 32 year old? I don't care how
> hard he works after year 5 at the latest this contract is going to be
> worse then Giambi's IMO.
>
Well, Winnie had a good season at age 40 and he probably would've had
one or two more productive seasons if he hadn't worn down in Toronto
and MN as I remember him complaining about bad back and knees while
playing on the turf. That's what we have to hope for as Alex is still
a remarkable athlete. Along with Winfield, Alex probably is among the
best athletes to play baseball. He would've received football
scholarships from one of the FL schools had he not made his intent to
play baseball. You know if Woody Woodward hadn't listened to his
scouts, the M's would've selected Darren Dreifort as Lou wanted him
instead of Alex.
> I guess this is price for the after 2000 George GM years. The system
> is still 2 or 3 years away from feeding everything they need to make
> the next run but the pieces seem to be going into place.
>
I agree as they are now concentrating on catching prospects.
> The one thing that worries me is Hank. His quote about Mariano "I
> wanted him back" scares the hell out of . Not we, I. I'm worried that
> Hank I wants Santana a little too much and I'm more worried that Hank
> thinks he's the new GM.
>
I agree completely.
> If the Yankees trade Hughes it's back to Steinbrenner business as
> usual. Kennedy is a different story IMO.
You know I agree with your ratings of the three kids. I still think
Phlop is their best pitching prospect. From what I've seen of him, he
knows how to pitch and his maturity is well beyond his years. Most
kids would've folded in September as he just didn't have his stuff
after the return from his injuries. Given his frame, I think he still
has the biggest upside even though Joba has better stuff right now.
> For Peavy or Santana or
> Bedard Kennedy can be included IMO. But not for position players and
> Hughes shouldn't be traded for anyone. Someone should tie Hank to a
> chair and make him watch Hughes 7 inning no hitter in Texas 10 times
> in a row. I think he's been fooled by the after injury Hughes who was
> good but not great. I know I'm in the minority but I like Hughes more
> then Joba and Joba is clearly a #1 starter.-
Hopefully something can be worked out with Horne and McCutcheon who
apparently are rated highly. I've changed my mind on IPK enough times
so I'm not sure but my usual bias toward "stuff" rather than
"pitchability" makes me think Ian is the top trade bait.