How likely is it that Josh Thole will have 150 or more major league ABs
in 2010?
Obviously if Barajas and Blanco stay healthy it is unlikely. OTOH,
just looking at those two it is hard to imagine one or both them not
spending some time on the DL.
So does Thole hit 150 mjr league at bats this year?
--
Larry Smith
Jon Poupon
Montreal's Number One Mets Fan
"Let's Go Habitants, Let's Go Mets!"
> How likely is it that Josh Thole will have 150 or more major league ABs
> in 2010?
I actually have little doubt that he will get 150 ABs this season...
Ruben
> Here's a better question: will Ike Davis be the Mets first baseman this
> year?
How is that a better question? That is a terrible question. How can you
expect a 22yo minor league player with only 700 minor league at bats and
only a 117 OPS at double A even be considered a starting Major League 1st
baseman based on a spring training home run off of a jouneyman minor
league hasbeen who threw a heater right in the wheelhouse.
As you really Jeff Wilpon?
Ruben
> only a 117 OPS
correct, he had a 951 OPS, what his OPS+ is is a mystery. He needs
another 200 at bats at least on the minor league level before a call up.
Who is managing the AAA team in Buffalo this year?
Ruben
Ken Oberkfell is managing the Bisons this year.
Matt
>> only a 117 OPS
>
> correct, he had a 951 OPS, what his OPS+ is is a mystery. He needs
> another 200 at bats at least on the minor league level before a call up.
> Who is managing the AAA team in Buffalo this year?
One more thing about Davis. Scouts are concerned that he has a hitch in
his swing that will be a disadvantage on the major league level as he
sees more breaking balls. For me, I disagree. I posted earlier that his
swing reminds me of Olerud, and that his bat speed seems on film to be a
bit slow. A Jon pointed out, and as Mr Seaver would say, that might not
be bad because he doesn't over swing. He makes solid contact and in slow
motion he does something very remarkable ... he adjusts mid-swing, and
part of what allows that is how he drops his hands. He's not just a
mistakes hitter. He goes with the pitch and does so very fluidly. I
think he is going to be a very good hitter, and he still needs 200+ minor
league at bats.
>> correct, he had a 951 OPS, what his OPS+ is is a mystery. He needs
>> another 200 at bats at least on the minor league level before a call
>> up. Who is managing the AAA team in Buffalo this year?
>>
>> Ruben
>
> Ken Oberkfell is managing the Bisons this year.
Well that is hopeful. They need to leave him there. When Manual is
canned and Oberkfeld and Backman come to the Majors, then they can bring
him up.
Ruben
I know Backman. I don't know much about Oberkfell. Is he a good judge
of
talent?
Matt
The issue for me is less hitch and more that he drops his hands.
Truthfully though, that's relatively correctable with proper
coaching. There is a lot about his swing to like, and his numbers
show hope.
233 PA above A ball is not enough, however, to make a real judgment.
My hope would be he starts the year at Binghamton, tears the cover off
of the ball, maybe gets promoted to Buffalo mid season, and, assuming
he performs, gets the chance to win the 1B job in 2011. I'm doubtful
that will happen, however, since the Mets are generally an
organization that rushes prospects in this regime, and my guess would
be that when the Murphy/Tatis platoon is performing well below league
average, the temptation to bring Davis up and potentially extend their
job tenures will prove too tempting for Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel.
No offense guys. All this stuff about Ike is interesting to read but
the basic question was about Thole.
The first reply said "let's take about Ike" and off everyone went.
Does anyone have an opinion as to whether Thole will be a full season
AAA guy or whether he'll bust through for a reasonable major league
campaign in 2010?
--
Larry Smith
>> Well that is hopeful. They need to leave him there. When Manual is
>> canned and Oberkfeld and Backman come to the Majors, then they can
>> bring him up.
>
> I know Backman. I don't know much about Oberkfell. Is he a good judge of
> talent?
from what I read, yeah, he's pretty good, but more importantly, he is
excellent at developing talent and organizing the team into a program to
develop existing and finding new talent. He got squeezed out by Tony
Bernazard, and had a fundamental different with Peterson and was pigeon
holed for a long time. You'll have to do some google searching on some
of the background stories and interviews.
He was key in the development of David Wright, and that says something...
"I thought he was going to be real good. I thought he would be an All-
Star, an impact player at the MLB level. And that's what he became," said
Ken Oberkfell, who first worked with Wright in 2003 as manager of Class A
Advanced St. Lucie. "He just stood out, he was a very good player."
Under the watchful eyes of Oberkfell and hitting instructor Howard
Johnson, Wright continued to flourish in the Florida State League.
"I remember we had to shut him down from working out, he was working so
much," Oberkfell said. "He was always wanting to work and to learn, and
he worked on and got better in all phases of his game. He had problems on
and off defensively, but he worked on it. He worked to get better, and he
still works to stay that way."
That work paid off for Wright, who led the league with 72 walks, 56 extra-
base hits and 39 doubles and earned All-Star honors for the second year
in a row. Wright gave much of the credit to Johnson, a former All-Star
third baseman for the Mets.
"He's taught me a lot," Wright told MLB.com. "We talk a lot about the
mental side of hitting. I love just sitting down [and] talking to him
about hitting, defense, game situations."
Those talks obviously paid off as Wright finished ninth in the elite
Arizona Fall League with a .341 batting average. That served as a
precursor to a 2004 season in which he flew through the upper levels of
the Minor Leagues.
http://artvoice.com/issues/v8n32/play_ball
Small wonder that Ken Oberkfell so angrily tried to retract statements
he made to Artvoice about the team’s miserable start earlier this season.
While Oberkfell looks to be a strong and husky guy who could take care of
himself in a fight, the prospect of having one’s unstable boss show up and
start acting crazy and belligerent doesn’t exactly inspire an environment
where one can speak freely. That climate of fear and intimidation is probably
at the heart of everything that is wrong with the Buffalo Bisons this season.
Ruben
> I'm doubtful
> that will happen, however, since the Mets are generally an organization
> that rushes prospects in this regime, and my guess would be that when
> the Murphy/Tatis platoon is performing well below league average, the
> temptation to bring Davis up and potentially extend their job tenures
> will prove too tempting for Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel.
In of itself, that isn't a problem. But when they lose patients with him
and stop teaching on the ML Level when they call him up, that is the real
trouble. BTW - Thole reminds me of Dykstra as a hitter.
> My hope would be he starts the year at Binghamton, tears the cover off
> of the ball, maybe gets promoted to Buffalo mid season, and, assuming he
> performs, gets the chance to win the 1B job in 2011.
I'm not sure he has anything else left to learn in AA. He fairly
dominated it. Let him work with Oberkfell, who is a teacher I trust with
talent.
Ruben
Point well taken.
I don't think that he'll ever hit for enough power to justify a full-
time ML job. In a perfect world he'd be Mike LaValliere but there's
very little indication that his defense is up to snuff. At the end of
the day, he may be the catching version of Daniel Murphy.
Personally, all things considered, the Mets are on the hook with
guaranteed deals for Barajas and Blanco, and they gain nothing by
having Santos sit at AAA, so they might as well play Thole at AAA full
time this year, let him work on his defense, and hopefully see if he
has a place on the roster in 2011.
> Does anyone have an opinion as to whether Thole will be a full season
> AAA guy or whether he'll bust through for a reasonable major league
> campaign in 2010?
Unless he has a complete collapse, Thole is the catcher by August...
Ruben
Ok, look, I'm not going to say that Oberkfell is not a good coach.
I'm not going to say he doesn't know talent.
He's been in the Mets organization for 10 years and frankly it's an
organization that remains shallow in talent. Now, I'm not suggesting
that's Oberkfell's fault. You have to find the talent first, bring it
in, and nurture it. But if you're going to trumpet David Wright as an
example of Oberkfell's player development acumen, then I think that's
being a bit disingenuous. David Wright is a great player because he's
David Wright. David Wright was a great player before he got to Ken
Oberkfell and he's been a great player since Ken Oberkfell and the
truth is David Wright is a great player in spite of anything the Mets
organization tried to do to him. I'm not saying he didn't benefit
from Oberkfell, but giving him credit for David Wright's development
is a reach. David Wright was a first round draft choice. The most I
would say is that Oberkfell and Howard Johnson didn't screw him up.
Look, maybe Ken Oberkfell is a combination of Branch Rickey, Theo
Epstein, George Weiss, and Frank Cashen. I have no idea, and frankly
I don't think you do either. But remember something Ruben . . . he's
been in the organization for TEN YEARS. If he's so great why haven't
more players that have gone through him turned up successfully? Why
hasn't the Mets system produced more players? Why is he 589-611 in
that time period? Why has no other organization been knocking down
his door to hire him despite numerous major league openings? Do you
think he's turned them down and wanted to go back to AAA year after
year after year? He's been in AAA for FIVE YEARS. It wasn't until
the Mets promoted him that he got a Major League Coaching Job.
Again, maybe he's the next great GM. Or maybe he's the next Joe
McCarthy, Casey Stengel, and John McGraw all rolled into one. I don't
know, but you don't either, and the factual evidence suggests he's a
nice organizational guy who's either very loyal or not looked upon all
that highly by the rest of baseball. I sincerely doubt the Wilpon's
highly pay their minor league personnel so that if somebody came
calling he wouldn't be interested.
>> He was key in the development of David Wright, and that says
>> something...
>>
>>
> Ok, look, I'm not going to say that Oberkfell is not a good coach. I'm
> not going to say he doesn't know talent.
>
> He's been in the Mets organization for 10 years and frankly it's an
> organization that remains shallow in talent. Now, I'm not suggesting
> that's Oberkfell's fault. You have to find the talent first, bring it
> in, and nurture it. But if you're going to trumpet David Wright as an
> example of Oberkfell's player development acumen, then I think that's
> being a bit disingenuous. David Wright is a great player because he's
> David Wright. David Wright was a great player before he got to Ken
> Oberkfell and he's been a great player since Ken Oberkfell and the truth
> is David Wright is a great player in spite of anything the Mets
> organization tried to do to him.
There are lots of 1# picks who don't pan out and Wright was well coached
in the early part of his minor league career by Oberkfell, who if i
recall, had him in the Sally League.
> I'm not saying he didn't benefit from
> Oberkfell, but giving him credit for David Wright's development is a
> reach.
Not really, a lot of players are simply mismanaged out of baseball.
Wright was fortunate to have a good staff in place at the right time.
> David Wright was a first round draft choice. The most I would
> say is that Oberkfell and Howard Johnson didn't screw him up.
>
> Look, maybe Ken Oberkfell is a combination of Branch Rickey, Theo
> Epstein, George Weiss, and Frank Cashen. I have no idea, and frankly I
> don't think you do either.
Well then listen to his past interviews. He ripped the organization
pretty good after the Kazmir trade, and complained bitterly about the
minor league overall function under Peterson and was an out right PIA to
Bernazard. His survival in the organization has more to do with his
record than any loyalty...otherwise I'm quite certain he'd be in the
Braves of the Cardinal organization at this time.
> But remember something Ruben . . . he's been
> in the organization for TEN YEARS. If he's so great why haven't more
> players that have gone through him turned up successfully? Why hasn't
> the Mets system produced more players? Why is he 589-611 in that time
> period?
Which team did he take over that didn't improve? Maybe that is a better
question than counting statistics.
> Why has no other organization been knocking down his door to
> hire him despite numerous major league openings? Do you think he's
> turned them down and wanted to go back to AAA year after year after
> year? He's been in AAA for FIVE YEARS. It wasn't until the Mets
> promoted him that he got a Major League Coaching Job.
>
Maybe he'll finally get his payoff, and we will all benefit from it.
> Again, maybe he's the next great GM. Or maybe he's the next Joe
> McCarthy, Casey Stengel, and John McGraw all rolled into one. I don't
> know, but you don't either, and the factual evidence suggests he's a
> nice organizational guy
You have obviously never heard him interviewed then.
> who's either very loyal or not looked upon all
> that highly by the rest of baseball. I sincerely doubt the Wilpon's
> highly pay their minor league personnel so that if somebody came calling
> he wouldn't be interested.
The cars were interested, and as I recall he basically turned them down.
Why? I don't know, and don't really care.
Ruben
He had Wright in St. Lucie in '03 and Binghamton in '04. At the point
that he got there, Wright was already the #4 prospect in the Mets
organization. Again, he was a first round draft choice.
What about all of those other players Oberkfell has had over the
years? Are they all not any good? Is David Wright the only good
player that's come through his teams? I think it's more likely that
Oberkfell and Johnson, being former Major League third basemen
themselves took an interest in this young thirdbaseman with an off-the-
chart work ethic and makeup and I'm sure they helped him to some
degree. Mostly what they did was not screw him up.
> Not really, a lot of players are simply mismanaged out of baseball.
> Wright was fortunate to have a good staff in place at the right time.
Wright was fortunate that the staff didn't screw him up too badly. If
the staff was so great, why has nobody else from that '03 St. Lucie
team besides Scott Kazmir (the OTHER 1st round draft choice on the
roster) made any kind of big league impact?
> Well then listen to his past interviews. He ripped the organization
> pretty good after the Kazmir trade, and complained bitterly about the
I ripped the organization bitterly after the Kazmir deal. Who
didn't? That hardly makes me think he's a talent evaluator savant.
> minor league overall function under Peterson and was an out right PIA to
That doesn't help your argument with me. Peterson was probably the
best pitching coach in NY since Rube Walker or at least Mel
Stottlemyre. The fact that his name is overly attached to a deal that
Jeff Wilpon made is an unfortunate obituary to his Mets career. The
fact is that the Mets under Peterson pitched better and were healthier
then they were before him and they've been since. John Maine, Oliver
Perez, and others all pitched better under Peterson then at any other
point in their careers. I'm not saying the guy isn't an ego maniac,
but he's also a damn good pitching coach and he was putting a system
in place throughout the organization that would have developed
pitching on a much larger scale the same way it did in Oakland and is
now doing in Milwaukee.
> Bernazard. His survival in the organization has more to do with his
> record than any loyalty...otherwise I'm quite certain he'd be in the
> Braves of the Cardinal organization at this time.
What record? He's UNDER .500 as a minor league manager. He's had one
winning record in the last 4 seasons.
>
> > But remember something Ruben . . . he's been
> > in the organization for TEN YEARS. If he's so great why haven't more
> > players that have gone through him turned up successfully? Why hasn't
> > the Mets system produced more players? Why is he 589-611 in that time
> > period?
>
> Which team did he take over that didn't improve? Maybe that is a better
> question than counting statistics.
>
In the low minors he certainly did that. Of course, he rarely had the
same players as continuity in the minors year to year is unlikely.
Minor League year-to-year records go up and down by necessity. I
think the best judge is how have the players progressed . . . and the
truth is that the Mets have been horrible at developing players, and
Oberkfell has been a big part of the organization for the last decade.
> Maybe he'll finally get his payoff, and we will all benefit from it.
Victor Diaz says hi.
>
> > Again, maybe he's the next great GM. Or maybe he's the next Joe
> > McCarthy, Casey Stengel, and John McGraw all rolled into one. I don't
> > know, but you don't either, and the factual evidence suggests he's a
> > nice organizational guy
>
> You have obviously never heard him interviewed then.
I really don't care what anybody says. I care about what THEY DO.
Results are all I care about. Allard Baird can talk all day about how
much he cares about OBP yet when he spends a season importing the
likes of Mike Jacobs, Yuniesky Betencourt and Willie Bloomquist, it
sure doesn't look like it.
>
> > who's either very loyal or not looked upon all
> > that highly by the rest of baseball. I sincerely doubt the Wilpon's
> > highly pay their minor league personnel so that if somebody came calling
> > he wouldn't be interested.
>
> The cars were interested, and as I recall he basically turned them down.
Source? I looked and can't find anything. Why in the hell would
anybody turn down a major league job to stay in the minors? To me,
that's just stupid, especially in the case of the Cardinals, one of
the best organizations in baseball.
I'm not sure if he's any good or not, but the Mets have not historically
stocked their AAA teams with decent talent. The really good players
(such as they are) are typically at AA. Of course, the fact that
Oberkfell is at AAA when the Mets don't have prospects there that they
consider major prospects may say something about what the Mets think of him.
That said, it does appear they might have some decent young players at
AAA this year. Maybe Buffalo ownership expressed their disappointment
after they switched their affiliation to the Mets only to be rewarded
with a crappy team of has beens and never will be's.
Bill
>> minor league overall function under Peterson and was an out right PIA
>> to
>
> That doesn't help your argument with me. Peterson was probably the best
> pitching coach in NY since Rube Walker or at least Mel Stottlemyre.
yeah - I don't agree with that. He burned out the ballpens by all but
refusing to let pitches go over 100 pitches. His evaluation of Kazir
wasn't terrific either.
I was glad to see him go.
Ruben
Ruby also said: I was glad to see him go. Reply, Everyone here, except
Jottland, your twin, would be glad to see you go. ha ha ha ha ha
Your point is a very good one. Let's look at Oberkfells first 4 years
from 2001-2004 where we was in AA and below. This is every player he
had who reached the major league level eventually. I've also included
the round the player was drafted in, or, if they were not drafted the
ranking they were as a prospect in the Mets system according to
Baseball America. I'm also not including veteran players sent down
for rehab or anybody over the age of 25 who wouldn't have been
considered a prospect at that point.
2001 - Capital City (Low A Ball) - 62-73
Craig Brazell - 5th Rd - 1998
Enrique Cruz - #5 prospect - 2000
Jeff Duncan - 7th Rd - 2000
Daniel Garcia - 5th Rd - 2001
Mike Jacobs - 38th Rd - 2001
Angel Pagan - 4th Rd - 1999
Jose Reyes - #1 prospect - 2003
Bobby Keppel - 1st Rd - 2000
Neal Musser - 2nd Rd - 1999
2002 - St. Lucie (High A Ball) - 71-69
Jason Bay - 22nd Rd - 2000
Brazell
Cruz
Duncan
Garcia
Justin Huber - #5 - 2003
Jacobs
Pagan
Reyes
Gil Velazquez - 14th Rd - 1998
Keppel
Musser
2003 - St. Lucie (High A Ball) - 77-62
Joe Hietpas - 16th Rd - 2001
Huber
Pagan
Velazquez
Matt Watson - 16th Rd - 2001
David Wright - 1st Rd - 2001
Jose Diaz - Not drafted - never a Top 10 Prospect
Lenny DiNardo - 3rd Rd - 2001
Scott Kazmir - 1st Rd - 2002
Musser
Tyler Yates - 23rd Rd - 1998
2004 - Binghamton (AA) - 76-66
Brian Bannister - 7th Rd - 2003
Chris Basik - 6th Rd - 2000
Diaz
Duncan
Hietpas
Huber
Jeff Keppinger - 4th Rd - 2001
Musser
Pagan
Prentice Redman - 10th Rd - 1999
Reyes
Royce Ring - 1st Rd - 2002
Velazquez
Wright
Yusmeiro Petit - #2 Prospect 2005/2006
When we take out the 'cup-of-coffee' guys, here's what we're left
with:
Mike Jacobs
Angel Pagan
Jose Reyes
Jason Bay
David Wright
Scott Kazmir
Tyler Yates
Brain Bannister
Jeff Keppinger
Royce Ring
Yusmeiro Petit
Now, other then Bay and Jacobs, everybody else on this list was a Top
10 draftpick or Top 10 prospect. So Ruben, here's my challenge to
you. Show me Oberkfell's uproar when the Mets traded Bay and/or
Jacobs. That would tell me something. Don't show me uproar when they
traded a #1 draft pick who had been performing brilliantly in the
minors as justification. That's easy. Oberkfell had Jacobs for 2
years. You would think he knew him as well, or better, then anybody
in the Mets system. You would think the Mets consulted him on the
deal. I wonder what his evaluation was? That would tell me something
about Oberkfell's player evaluation skills. I'll give Oberkfell
credit for Jacobs. He deserves it. Two years with a 38th Rd Draft
pick absolutely looks like it made a difference. He doesn't get much
credit with me for not screwing up the 1st Rd picks and Top 10
prospects.
> Don't show me uproar when they
> traded a #1 draft pick who had been performing brilliantly in the minors
> as justification. That's easy.
Your just not getting it. He didn't just complain about Kazmir, but
complained about the entire approach to player development and failure of
the organization to take scouting seriously, or its emphasis away from
keeping the minors stocked with talent. THIS has not been his
organization. I'd say he has a better track record that Theo Esptien had
when he took over the BoSox
If your lucky enough to get Oberkfell as a GM, what you will see is a
completely more patient approach to young talent, more money poured into
player development, and a turn around system wide with an emphasis on
develop FIRST and then fill in as needed, rather than fill in as needed
and cross your fingers.
Ruben
>> I'm not sure if he's any good or not, but the Mets have not
>> historically stocked their AAA teams with decent talent. The really
>> good players (such as they are) are typically at AA. Of course, the
>> fact that Oberkfell is at AAA when the Mets don't have prospects there
>> that they consider major prospects may say something about what the
>> Mets think of him.
>>
He did manage to win Manager of the year under those conditions and drove
the Tides to a championship, one more than the ML club...
Ruben
Honestly I can't find enough quotes online to make much of a
judgment. I also frankly can't find any interviews, so you've clearly
seen something I haven't.
I think it's easy for anybody to come out and say they're committed to
young players and player development. The Mets say it all of the
time, yet they don't act that way. The Yankees said it for years but
didn't act that way.
At the end of the day, here's what I know. The Mets DEMOTED Oberkfell
from the Major League staff to AAA. Did he leave . . . nope . . . he
stuck around. Now I don't know about you, but in my mind somebody
who's been around baseball for 30 years such as Oberkfell and is
clearly a talented manager and talent evaluator would have something
at the Major League level lined up so that when his organization
demoted him, he could go get another job somewhere. Someone who
doesn't is either a fool or possibly not thought of highly enough in
the game to have a role somewhere else. Now I don't really trust the
Mets front office to make that successful of an evaluation, but there
are plenty of other teams in baseball who would know Oberkfell well
enough to give him an interview or make them part of their
organization. Did that happen . . . nope . . . so there goes good old
Ken Oberkfell back to AAA.
Those are actions. That's what happened. That's what continues to
happen. Was Oberkfell in for any major league jobs this year? I
didn't hear of any.
> You continue to look at the glass half empty monsieur negatif.
No - you continue to be deluded that Spring Training means anything other
than an extended practice and training.
> When the
> Mets announcers get as excited as they did over his homerun I sit up and
> take notice.
Really, the Mets are broadcasted in Montreal?
> Dave Kignmen is one of the most important baseball players
> of the 20th century
Yeah - he is right up there is Ruth and Musial and Hornsbry.
You really are a troll.
Is this the new Dingleberry ID? I think we might have a winner.
> and one of the all time great Mets. If he did not
> have to retire due to varicoceles, he would have been a Hall of Famer.
If it wasn't for his 300 OPB
> You never saw homers like that from phonies like Mantle, Aaron or Maris,
> n'est ce pas?
>
>> As you really Jeff Wilpon?
>
> Are you really a Met fan?
>
OK DIngleberry - gig is up...
> Jon Poop-on-it
> Montreal's Number One Mets Fag
> "Let's Blow Habitants, Let's Blow Mets!"
> Maybe he needs rehab in Swan Lake. By the
> way, where is Swan Lake, the place I'm supposed to be?
They don't have windows in your rehab facility?
Upstate NY Catskill area.... beautiful place as I recall.
--
JK Sinrod
www.MyConeyIslandMemories.com