Twins Sitting on Hands Again (so far)
powrwrap
move. Signing Carl Pavano was welcome and it filled a hole, but the
Twins biggest needs have not been addressed. Who's going to play third
base and second base?
If the season were to start tomorrow the Twins would be going with a
combination of Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, and Nick Punto at 3B and
a combo platter of Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Alexi Casilla at 2B.
Totally unacceptable. So who's available? Here's the free agent list.
Second Basemen
Ron Belliard LAD
Jamey Carroll CLE
David Eckstein SD
Orlando Hudson LAD
Felipe Lopez MIL
Mark Loretta LAD
Miguel Cairo PHI
Adam Kennedy OAK
A couple of these guys would be a nice addition.
Orlando Hudson would be my first choice; he could be had for about $7M
to $8M a year. 31 years old and a .282/.348/.431 lifetime hitter and
had an OPS above .800 for 2006-2008 (was .774 last year)
Felipe Lopez would be a good pick. 29 years old, a lifetime .
269/.338/.400 hitter whose stats are dragged down by his early output.
He was .310/.383/.427 in 2009 and .283/.343/.387 in 2008. He made
$3.5M last year and should be in the $7M a year range.
Ronnie Belliard, 34 years old, is a lifetime .275/.339/.418 hitter.
His best year was 2008 when he batted .287/.372/.473. He made $1.9M
last year so shouldn't be too expensive, maybe $5M.
All three of these guys can hit either lefties or righties. The other
guys on the list are either too old, not very good, or a platoon
hitter.
Third Basemen
Adrian Beltre SEA
Geoff Blum HOU
Craig Counsell MIL
Joe Crede MIN
Mark DeRosa STL
Troy Glaus STL
Jerry Hairston NYY
Mike Lamb MIL
Melvin Mora BAL
Juan Uribe SF
Robb Quinlan LAA
Adrian Beltre looks tempting, but I think he's on a severe decline.
Plus he's expensive.
Troy Glaus, 33, would add much needed power to the hot corner for the
Twins. He was injured last year but is a lifetime .255/.359/.497
hitter that averages 25 HR a year. He'd be expensive--at least $12M
for 3 or 4 years.
Joe Crede? Pass. He's a walking MRI and with a lousy BA and OBA.
Mark DeRosa, 34, is acceptable with a .275/.343/.424 lifetime hitting
line. He can play 3B, 2B, or OF. I'd guess he'd want $8M a year for 3
years. The Twins should pass on the 3rd year, otherwise I'd take him
for 2 years.
Juan Uribe, 30, is interesting. A lifetime .257/.298/.430 hitter is
not that impressive but he batted
.289/.329/.495 last year. In 2004 he hit .283/.327/.506 with 23 HRs.
Unfortunately, he's had some pretty awful years, with OPS below .700.
Which guy will you get?
The other guys are either too old, or not very good.
The Twins have talked about getting Robb Quinlan. He's an OK hitter
vs. lefties but his .226/.298/.296 line vs. righties makes him
unusable as an everyday player. The Twins have already got a guy that
can play a couple positions and hits lefties pretty well, in fact,
much better than Quinlan in Brendan Harris. So I'd pass on Quinlan.
So if I was choosing I'd take Orlando Hudson and Troy Glaus. Secondary
picks would be Felipe Lopez and Mark DeRosa.
brianj
Good analysis. Thanks, Alan.
I don't really think the Twins are looking for a 2B. I think N. Punto
has that sewn up unless something really unusual comes along. Gardy
said this week that if things remain as they are, Brendan Harris is
the 3B. I thought that was a weird thing to say, until I thought
about it and realized that there really is no one else. Unless
Tolbert gets a lot better, he won't be there, and Crede is gone. That
puts Punto at 2B and Harris at 3B. Not horrendous, but not really
very good, either. I get the feeling you think it is more like
horrendous. It looks like any of the 3 guys you mentioned would be an
upgrade, and at a decent price, but Belliard's age would concern me a
little. I am not as down on Crede as you are, but I do see his
weaknesses. If he were healthy (an unlikely prospect, I know) his
power and his glove would be nice. In any event, I don't think Harris
is going to be the man. I think they intend to sign someone, even if
it is just Crede.
I guess I would have to say I am glad that Pavano will be back, and I
hope he has a great year. But he surely did not have a great 2009.
It worked out well for the Twins, but his ERA was way too high. I
know that good starting pitching is hard to come by, and very dear.
But I am worried about the rotation. It could be mediocre. Even
mediocre could be good enough to win the ALC, but probably not much
more than that. I don't hold out a lot of hope, because I really
can't see anyone out there at a price the Twins would be interested
in, who would give me a lot more confidence than Baker, Slowey,
Blackburn, Pavano, and I-don't-know-who, maybe Duensing?
brianj
Likely Story
Don't you know that can't support a baseball team?
Even the Twins?
;-)