I guess Jocketty is waiting until winter meetings to add/subtract
players. Rumor has it, he is looking to pick up a Willy Taveras twin
that hits left-handed! Poor Willy he seems to be the official Reds
punching bag deservedly so.
Looks like Reds are looking to unload Brandon Phillips over the winter.
Would you trade Phillips straight up for Jose Reyes who makes peanuts
over the next 3 years? One head case for another and the Reds finally
get a leadoff hitter or a Stubbs/Reyes one two punch? I think the Mets
make the deal. I wouldn't....................
The deal would leave you real vulnerable in the middle of the order
especially if Rolen went down for an extended period of time. On the
other hand you fix the top of the order and SS all at once. Your
call?.....
I'm not sold that Wilson is the tonic for any of the reds ills, but that
aside, I'll be shocked if the reds make a 10 million dollar committment to
anyone. Despite the happy talk of salaries balanceing and the Blue Jays
adding money, the Rolen trade meant trouble for the way this team's payroll
was/is structured.
dfs
> SS Jack Wilson signs a 2 year deal with Mariners.The Reds missed the
> boat here in filling one of their big holes in 2010. I think Wilson
> would have been a perfect number 2 hitter here and his defense has been
> very good..... Wilson received 10 million for the 2 years which was
> relatively cheap. He was a perfect stop gap that Reds could have easily
> had......
Wilson has a career obp of .310 and its about .300 over the past 2
seasons. He's a horrible offensive player. We have that already in a
ss and he makes league minimum.
I dont know who you expect the Reds to bring up 2 years from now.
Cozart should be at Louisville next year and he's probably the best ss
prospect we have. I guess he'll be "ready" by 2011.
>
> I guess Jocketty is waiting until winter meetings to add/subtract
> players. Rumor has it, he is looking to pick up a Willy Taveras twin
> that hits left-handed!
I havent heard that rumor. I'll assume thats a joke.
>
> Looks like Reds are looking to unload Brandon Phillips over the winter.
They are willing to entertain offers. Which they should be. He's due
to make alot more than this club can afford to pay him in 2011.
> Would you trade Phillips straight up for Jose Reyes who makes peanuts
> over the next 3 years? One head case for another and the Reds finally
> get a leadoff hitter or a Stubbs/Reyes one two punch? I think the Mets
> make the deal. I wouldn't....................
I dont know where you got that info. According to Cots, Reyes is due
to make 9 million in 2010 with an 11 mil club option for 2011.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/new-york-mets.html
No, i dont make that trade either.
>
> The deal would leave you real vulnerable in the middle of the order
> especially if Rolen went down for an extended period of time. On the
> other hand you fix the top of the order and SS all at once. Your
> call?.....
Well, at least someone is thinking about this stuff.
>SS Jack Wilson signs a 2 year deal with Mariners. The Reds missed the
>boat here in filling one of their big holes in 2010. I think Wilson
>would have been a perfect number 2 hitter here and his defense has been
>very good..... Wilson received 10 million for the 2 years which was
>relatively cheap. He was a perfect stop gap that Reds could have easily
>had......
As others have already pointed out, Wilson is a subpar offensive player making
millions. We already have a subpar offensive shortstop making major league
minimum. To that I'll add that Janish is probably a better fielding shortstop
than Wilson, and unlike Wilson, still has upside. Let the Mariners have Wilson.
Now you know why they keep finishing in the AL West basement.
>Looks like Reds are looking to unload Brandon Phillips over the winter.
>Would you trade Phillips straight up for Jose Reyes who makes peanuts
>over the next 3 years? One head case for another and the Reds finally
>get a leadoff hitter or a Stubbs/Reyes one two punch? I think the Mets
>make the deal. I wouldn't....................
I wouldn't either. BTW, Jocketty earlier this week refuted the rumors of
Phillips getting traded.
>The deal would leave you real vulnerable in the middle of the order
>especially if Rolen went down for an extended period of time. On the
>other hand you fix the top of the order and SS all at once. Your
>call?.....
On a good team, Phillips is probably in the #2 slot where he can better utilize
his speed as well as his power, and somebody else is batting cleanup. If
anything, they need to add another middle-of-the-order hitter, not lose one, and
I'd say that ideally that should be a left fielder::
Franklin Stubbs, cf
Brandon Phillips, 2b
Joey Votto, 1b
Player X, lf
Scott Rolen, 3b
Jay Bruce, rf
Ramon Hernandez, c
Paul Janish, ss
Bronson Arroyo, p
If I'm Walt Jocketty, my offseason priority is that I'm looking for Player X,
who can be anybody to play average defense in left and drive in 80-90 runs so I
can move Phillips up to the #2 slot.
JK
I think that on a good team, Phillips is hitting 5th - 7th, depending
on who's pitching. Hitting him 2nd makes little sense since he doesnt
take pitches well or work walks. It would be like hitting Torri Hunter
2nd.
If Phillips played firstbase or thirdbase there would be little-to-no
talk about hitting him 2nd. I'm not saying that youre doing this but
there seems to be an entrenched idea that you have to bat a middle
infielder 2nd. I think thats why JohnS identified Jack Wilson as a
"perfect" 2-hitter. Wilson is a singles-hitting middle infielder.
I know that i was like that myself 2 decades ago when i'd think about
lineups or play tabletop baseball games.
As an aside, anyone remember that movie "Major League"? Of course you
do. One thing that always stuck in my mind about that movie is that
Jake Taylor, the catcher, hit 2nd behind Willie Mays Hayes in the
playoff game against the Yankees (at least for that game he did). Did
anyone really think that any Major League manager at that time would
bat thier slow-footed catcher (remember he had knee problems) in the
#2 slot. I was like wtf at the time; why arent they batting that
scrappy little secondbaseman in that spot. Even if he was a bases-on-
balls-machine, wouldnt he have been clogging up those base paths. Of
course, its a movie, and Taylor was the 'hero" and it was necessary to
bat him second so that he could bunt Hayes in from second base.
>
> Franklin Stubbs, cf
> Brandon Phillips, 2b
> Joey Votto, 1b
> Player X, lf
> Scott Rolen, 3b
> Jay Bruce, rf
> Ramon Hernandez, c
> Paul Janish, ss
> Bronson Arroyo, p
>
> If I'm Walt Jocketty, my offseason priority is that I'm looking for Player X,
> who can be anybody to play average defense in left and drive in 80-90 runs so I
> can move Phillips up to the #2 slot.
>
If i'm Jocketty, my priority is moving Cordero to gain some payroll
flexibility, then making sure that the rest of the bullpen is solid.
Worry about auditioning closers in March. After that, I would try to
decide on whether we are deep enough in starting pitchers to fill the
5th slot and cover potential injuries. I'd look into signing a low-
cost, high-risk, high-return starting pitcher, maybe someone coming
back from serious injury that could be had for cheap. Someone
mentioned Noah Lowry on thier blogsite. I personally dont like Lowry,
but what do i know. Anyway, someone like that.
After that I'm looking at clearing up the outfield picture with a
focus on improving the offensive output without gimping the defense.
They cant spend any money (unless they move a contract) so i expect to
see Taveras/Stubbs/Dickerson/Balintien/Bruce get most of the reps
again, with Frazier/Heisey/Francisco behind them.
He's addressed Catcher and there isnt much he can do about SS. Were at
least solid defensively on the infield for the first time in years.
------------------------------------------
Regarding your Player X, I think that Jay Bruce can become that guy,
and i think that management thinks that too. He needs to take that
next step and adjust to lefties.
oops, i almost forgot. Youre looking for someone to bat cleanup and
drive in 80-90 runs (and play left), when Phillips was able to drive
in almost 100 last year. Phillips was able to drive in that many runs
despite the presence of guys like Taveras, Gonzalez, Stubbs, and
Janish in the 1 & 2 spots for much of the year.
>
> I know that i was like that myself 2 decades ago when i'd think about
> lineups or play tabletop baseball games.
I was unusually luck to have encounted the 1969 San Franciso Giants
when I first started to do batting orders.
Conventional wisdom at the time would have you go:
Bonds, Hunt, Mays, McCovey, Davenport, Henderson,
Dietz, Lanier
Then you look at Dick Dietz's card and see that while there
aren't many hits there also aren't many outs. Even if
you have no idea what OBP is (and I'd never heard of it),
it's practically impossible to miss a .372 OBP driven
almost totally by walks. (Plus tons of DPs)
And you've got McCovey. Easily the best hitter in
the league. It's obvious you want people on base in
front of him. And speed's not that important. You
don't want to run McCovey out of chances to hit
with runners on.
Which brings you to Bonds. Actually not that good at
getting on (though not horrible), but the only guy
besides McCovey with any real power.
So without understanding anything about sabremetrics
you quickly understand that:
Dietz, Hunt, Mays, McCovey, Bonds, Henderson, Davenport
Lanier.
Looks weird but makes an awful lot of sense.
Barry Larkin had some time as the Reds' cleanup hitter during his career. He
drove in 89 runs in 1996. I don't think that necessarily means that he's a
prototype cleanup hitter or that that's the best place to put him in the order
if you have other options.
My reasoning for wanting to bat Phillips second is because of (a) his speed and
(b) because I think his OBP would improve enough to warrant the move if he was
concentrating on getting on base rather than trying to drive in runs. It isn't
because of his defensive position. I think if they get a guy who is a proven RBI
man to hit cleanup and bat Phillips #2 instead of guys like Taveras, Gonzalez,
Stubbs, and Janish, Phillips should provide more RBI opportunities for the 3-4-5
hitters than those four guys were doing.
If you want to consider Phillips a power hitter anyway...well, so be it, Billy
Martin swore up and down that teams who were able to bat a power hitter in the
#2 slot had an advantage because of it. Since he's got more time on the top step
of the dugout during World Series play than I have on ballpark toilets, I think
I'll just go with that opinion. :)
JK