Is Ben Sheets worth a gamble?
john smith
signing him. I feel he might be worth the gamble as the guy when healthy
brings legit # 1 stuff to the table. The Reds haven't had a legitimate
#1 starter since Jose Rijo and that's a long time...
This organization owes something to its fans. We are fed up with the
signings of guys like Taveras. Why don't they ever take a reasonable
chance on a potential star....
If they can get rid of Harang and replace him with Sheets they will be a
much better team in 2010.....Barring Sheets potential bad health of
course...I would take this gamble. The Braves have made a lot of moves
that can blow up in their face. The Reds should be willing to take one
risk...
Sammy R
where I've been less interested in a Reds team than this one. There's
zero chance that they would sign this guy, zero chance that they'll
spend any money on anything worthwhile....and zero chance of them being
a .500 team.
About the only thing I'll be interested in is the attendance figures. I
think this is the year where people finally start staying home.
Sammy
HTP
If it were possible, essentially swap Harang and his 14.5 mil contract
for 1 year of Sheets at 12 mil?
Even if Sheets passed a physical, and we could move harangs contract,
i think it would be insane to give him 12 million dollars.
He's missed time in 4 of the past 5 seasons, making 94 starts over
that time. Thats 19 starts per/season. He hasnt topped 200 innings
since 2005. How many starts has Harang missed over the past 5 years
because of (baseball) injury? A bird in the hand.....
I see the Mets are taking a chance on Kelvim escobar for 1.25 mil.
That type of low risk signing makes a lot more sense. I wonder what
Chin mien wang is looking for?
john smith
signing retreads. Sheets maybe a huge gamble but sometimes you got to
roll the dice...
If you structure maybe a 3 year deal at 8 million per year with
INCENTIVES that include 150 innings per year that would bring conrtact
up to 30 million over three years, then I have no problem signing a guy
who has been dominant in the past...
What's Brandon Webb's status? A great fit for GAAP with his propensity
to throw ground balls....
I know the Reds have financial restraints but every once in awhile, they
should be able to splurge and stop taking fans for idiots...If they
don't resign Gomes, management is a disgrace...
HTP
> In regard to Wang, I think he is done. I am quite frankly sick of
> signing retreads. Sheets maybe a huge gamble but sometimes you got to
> roll the dice...
You must be thinking of somebody else. Why would you regard Wang as a
retread and yet want to sign Sheets?
Wang is younger than Sheets and his injury problem is not in his arm.
His arms fine. His foot got messed up and his mechanics went to crap.
Wang was the Yankees #1 starter from 2006-2008 until he got hurt.
I wouldnt sign either of these guys at 8 mil/yr, and certainly not for
12 mil. But paying out 1.25 (like the Mets did with Escobar) for 1
year for Wang, loading the contract with incentives is the type of
risk the club should take.
Jocketty would be better off taking that Sheets money to Vegas and
taking a roll of the dice.
>
> If you structure maybe a 3 year deal at 8 million per year with
> INCENTIVES that include 150 innings per year that would bring conrtact
> up to 30 million over three years, then I have no problem signing a guy
> who has been dominant in the past...
At this time, guaranteeing 24 million to ben sheets would be ludicrous
for any club. He's hurt. He gets hurt alot. And he aint getting any
younger. i think youre seriously overestimating Sheets potential
value. Similarly, youre underestimating "Bang-bang's" value.
>
> What's Brandon Webb's status? A great fit for GAAP with his propensity
> to throw ground balls....
I'd like to see him come here too. I posted all that stuff about Webb
being a good fit what with Price coming here as pitching coach and
Webb being from Kentucky.
I think Arizona picked up his 2010 option.
>
> I know the Reds have financial restraints but every once in awhile, they
> should be able to splurge and stop taking fans for idiots...If they
> don't resign Gomes, management is a disgrace...
Reds fans already are idiots, or masochist, or something like that.
John Kasupski
>I hear Sheets is looking for 12 million a year but nobody wants to risk
>signing him. I feel he might be worth the gamble as the guy when healthy
>brings legit # 1 stuff to the table. The Reds haven't had a legitimate
>#1 starter since Jose Rijo and that's a long time...
>
>This organization owes something to its fans. We are fed up with the
>signings of guys like Taveras. Why don't they ever take a reasonable
>chance on a potential star....
Ken Griffey Jr. waves hello.
>If they can get rid of Harang and replace him with Sheets they will be a
>much better team in 2010.....Barring Sheets potential bad health of
>course...I would take this gamble. The Braves have made a lot of moves
>that can blow up in their face. The Reds should be willing to take one
>risk...
The Braves started 2009 with a $96 million payroll.
OK...so the Reds sign Sheets. After six starts, he goes on the DL for the rest
of the year and there's $12 million bucks wasted out of a total payroll of circa
$75 mil, and we still wind up with somebody like Justin Lehr or Kip Wells
starting games for the Reds. What will that gain us? Twenty more tickets per
game sold at the box office, eighteen of them to folks who couldn't get in to
see Lions vs. Christians because the Coliseum was already sold out so they
decided to go watch the Reds pitching staff get lit up like the Fourth of July
instead? That kind of thinking gave us Eric Milton. This team does not need to
pay anybody $12 million to watch that particular movie again.
JK
John Kasupski
>What's Brandon Webb's status? A great fit for GAAP with his propensity
>to throw ground balls....
Webb was limited to one start last year because of injury. He threw four innings
of six-run ball on Opening Day and hasn't touched the mound since. After next
year he becomes a free agent. assuming he's healthy then, he will command top
dollar on the open markey, which lets all but the about six teams in MLB that
have deep enough pockets out.
>I know the Reds have financial restraints but every once in awhile, they
>should be able to splurge and stop taking fans for idiots...If they
>don't resign Gomes, management is a disgrace...
That seems a little harsh, John. Realistically, I think Gomes is at best the
right-handed half of a corner outfielder platoon. He was non-tendered because
the Reds figured he would probably get $2 million plus in arbitration. granted,
that's nowhere near what Johnny Damon is looking for, but there are other fourth
outfielder types out there - Rick Ankiel, Reed Johnson, Jermaine Dye, Aubrey
Huff, Jack Cust, to name a few - so the Reds can afford to wait and see how far
the free agent market drops before they go jumping in.
JK
David Short
....Is Jonny Gomes worth 2 million a year?
By all accounts Gomes is a great, great teamate. I mean he's the first guy
out of the dougout during a fight type of guy. He's a visable holler-boy who
doesn't spare the effort when it comes to practice. That's what the reds SAY
they want.
Gomes is young, but not a baby. He's 28 and has been in the big leagues
since he's 22.
Gomes RAKED last year. A 331 OBP is nothing to write home about, but when
you pair it with a 541 slugging percentage, that's useful production out of
a corner outfielder.
They guy made no fuss about the way he was used. He went down to AAA and
didn't cause a stink. When it was readily apparent that he should have been
in the lineup all year long, he kept his mouth shut and played.
The knock on Gomes coming into the year was that he was not a good defensive
outfielder. He responded by playing the best defensive ball of his career.
He still wasn't good.
Ok...This isn't Barry Bonds asking for 15 million to stand around left field
and wait for at bats. This is a 28 year old player reaching his peak who is
obviously a useful guy to have on a major league roster and by all acounts
is a terrific teamate.
You can't pay that guy 2 million dollars?
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe February comes and Gomes has no takers and comes back
to cincy for the league minimum. Maybe the guy is snowing the sportswriters
and has a habit and is pure poison. It seems pretty silly to save money this
way.
dfs
john smith
full season. From his first Reds at bat and that ringing pulled double
down the left field line this guy spelled instant energy....
If Reds management had any integrity, they would cut Taveras and sign
Gomes . Just consider it a 6 million dollar investment( Gomes 2 and
Taveras 4) in a guy who could hit 35 homers if all things break right...
The Reds must get drastic if they are going to contend. Just take this
scenario: put Bruce in center, Gomes in right and Votto in left and sign
Adam Laroche for 2 years at first awaiting Alonzo... Sure it makes your
outfield weaker defensively but not as weak as when they had Dunn and
Griffey out there...
Making these radical moves gives you a very potent offense and if you
play Janish at SS your infield is great defensively. Votto could have
all spring to learn the outfield...
Thinking outside the box is not something Reds management is capable of.
They are limited to signing the Willy T's of baseball and that's it....
Pipe dream scenario but fun to think about...
David Short
snip of stuff I agree with....
> The Reds must get drastic if they are going to contend. Just take this
> scenario: put Bruce in center, Gomes in right and Votto in left and sign
> Adam Laroche for 2 years at first awaiting Alonzo... Sure it makes your
> outfield weaker defensively but not as weak as when they had Dunn and
> Griffey out there...
It would be pretty bad John. Probably worse than Dunn Griffey, Kearn.
The range numbers say Gomes is as bad as Dunn. I'm confident that's the
reason they didn't bring him back. I don't know how slow Votto would be, but
he couldn't be an asset. I like Bruce's defense as much as anybody, but the
reds have decided that he's overmatched in center and I'm not going to argue
with them. It's very simple right now for Jay Bruce. He needs to hit in
order to justify him having a starting slot. I don't want ANYTHING standing
in the way of Bruce focusing on hitting.
I would have been willing to live with Gomes/Bruce/Stubbs.
Votto/Bruce/Stubbs is certainly possible, but I don't think the reds are
moving Joey any more than they are moving Brandon Phillips to shortstop.
It's nice to think about, but over the last 10 years the reds did a bunch of
stuff like that (WMP to thirdbase? Danny Graves to the starting rotation)
and it just backfired on them time after time.
dfs
john smith
fetched but that's what the Winter blues does to a Red's fan. On Stubbs,
I am not sold on him and his power surge from last year could have been
the worst possible thing that could have happened to him...
Funny thing about the Reds is they seem to be stacked with 6 hole
hitters. Will they ever have a legit leadoff hitter again?
HTP
John fay reporting that the Reds are among the teams "scouting" Ben
Sheets, and that he's looking for 7.5 mil or so. Aint gonna happen
with this team unless we move a big contract.
John Kasupski
>John fay reporting that the Reds are among the teams "scouting" Ben
>Sheets, and that he's looking for 7.5 mil or so. Aint gonna happen
>with this team unless we move a big contract.
My guess would be that if nobody else signs him first, the Reds might eventually
offer him the ol' minor league contract with ST invite, and are scouting him to
see if they think even that's worthwhile. Which, I'd be fine with minor league
contract/ST invite, though I dunno if Sheets woul be - maybe, if there's nobody
biting on a MLB contract because of his injury history.
JK
JustTom
>Sheets, and that he's looking for 7.5 mil or so. Aint gonna happen
>with this team unless we move a big contract.
$7.5M is still crazy talk IMO, but there's likely some sucker that'll
do it.
If I could, I'd offer a low base, a million or two, and then heavy
load incentives that he could reach if he stays healthy.
Since it's hard sell to convince a guy to come to GABP on a one year
deal who's primary purpose is to produce numbers to earn a long term
deal, I'd blow him away (and the competition) on the incentives,
making the deal to come to cinci worth even more than the $7.5M he's
asking. Make the package worth $8 - $10M if he performs as he can
when healthy. If he does, then we've paid fair market for
performance, if not, then we're only out the cost of doing business.
If he decides to take $6M guaranteed from somebody else over the
gamble of more from us, then I couldn't complain we didn't try.
I'd then install him as 5th starter, and basically rest/rehab/baby him
for the first month until we start needing the 5th guy.
If he performs well and we're in it at ASB, then cool, he's earned his
pay and FO looks stellar. If he performs well, but we're in our
usual division seat, then we can flip him for a decent prospect or
two, and likely give Chapman his starts and FO still looks good.
If he tanks or gets hurt again, then Chapman probably moves in. In
any instance, having someone in that slot to remove the temptation to
bring on the phenom too early is a good thing IMO. $10M may seem like
a big expense for a team not likely to contend, but if it insulates
against rushing the $30M jewel, I'm in. And a name like Sheets
holding that slot is likely to quell the mobs (and the owner) much
longer than the Maloneys or some NRI to ST.