What would it take to rescue Jason Bay from Pittsburgh?
gnork
Bay would be a wonderful acquisition. He has an OPS over 1000 over the last
3 years against LHP. He is a proven quality hitter with plate discipline and
power. He bats righty and has 41 career SBs with only 11 CS. Lifetime he is
a .291 .387 .540 hitter. He is only 28. He would not come cheap. No JV JVs
would be enough to get him. What might be enough and would you be willing to
do it?
If you want Bay you will have to offer some serious talent in exchange. How
about the Red Sox top prospect P Clay Buchholz, the power potential of Wily
Mo Pena, the excellent lefty reliever at Pawtucket Craig Breslow, the power
RHP in the Pawsox BP Travis Hughes, and Lancaster pitcher Hunter Jones? The
5 for one trade could inject a lot of talent into Pittsburgh and Jason Bay
could propel the Sox out of their hitting funk and energize the team.
Don't even bother trying to get the Pirates to take Coco Crisp. They
absolutely wouldn't want him, his .221 powerless BA and his roughly 12
million in guaranteed monies. He will remain the Red Sox problem to dispense
with another way.
If the Pirates like Craig Hansen by all means allow them to substitute him
for Breslow or Hughes. The Pirates season fell apart early this year. It has
to be a bummer for Bay who has never played for a contender. He might really
take off in Boston.
The one downside is Bay has mostly been a left fielder in his career in the
majors. He has 508 games there with a ZR of .845. But...he has 40 games in
CF with a ZR of .889 and one in RF with a 1.000 ZR. He would have to play CF
with Drew in RF or vice-versa. Whatever, it can be dealt with. The offensive
improvement would be overwhelming.
I would make the deal and afterwards this would be my most frequent lineup:
1. Pedroia 2b
2. Youkilis 1b
3. Ortiz dh
4. Ramirez lf
5. Bay cf-rf
6. Lowell 3b
7. Drew rf-cf
8. Varitek c
9. Lugo ss
Cora ss
After going to 11 pitchers and making other previously discussed moves the
bench would be:
J. Valentin c-1b
Moss OF
Cora or Lugo
Hinske (pending another deal)
Crisp (pending a deal or a release)
gnork
"gnork" <gno...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:hX4ci.4090$tb6....@newsread3.news.pas.earthlink.net...
I have one of my new bench players right now. No trade need be made. He is
super ulilityman Bobby Leon Scales who is hitting .314 .377 .506 for
Pawtucket. He has 8 doubles, 5 triples and 4 HRs in 156 at bats. He has a
decent 16 walks. He is fast and he would be happy as hell to be in the
majors. He is also a college guy (Michigan) and another switchhitter. He has
been death on lefties this year hitting .368 .432 .711 aginst them. He is
no slouch vrs RHP with .297 .359 .441. Move Crisp or Hinske any way right
now and make room for Scales. He would weigh in as a helpful player. He is
29 now and major league ready. Give him his chance. Two switch hitters on
the bench would be great.
>
>
>
gig
"gnork" <gno...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:hX4ci.4090$tb6....@newsread3.news.pas.earthlink.net...
> With the Red Sox offense sucking exhaust fumes especially aginst LHP,
> Jason
> Bay would be a wonderful acquisition.
> (snip)
Wayback1918
> As they say in Jersey... "Fahgettahboutit. It ain't happenin'."
>
>
> news:hX4ci.4090$tb6....@newsread3.news.pas.earthlink.net...
>
>
>
> > With the Red Sox offense sucking exhaust fumes especially aginst LHP,
> > Jason
> > Bay would be a wonderful acquisition.
>
> - Show quoted text -
According to link below the National League is running wild on
Bay.....and this is while he is playing leftfield.
http://buccoblog.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/2007/01/jason_bay_disar.html
BadgerBC
> With the Red Sox offense sucking exhaust fumes especially aginst LHP, Jason
> Bay would be a wonderful acquisition. He has an OPS over 1000 over the last
> 3 years against LHP. He is a proven quality hitter with plate discipline and
> power. He bats righty and has 41 career SBs with only 11 CS. Lifetime he is
> a .291 .387 .540 hitter. He is only 28. He would not come cheap. No JV JVs
> would be enough to get him. What might be enough and would you be willing to
> do it?
>
> If you want Bay you will have to offer some serious talent in exchange. How
> about the Red Sox top prospect P Clay Buchholz, the power potential of Wily
> Mo Pena, the excellent lefty reliever at Pawtucket Craig Breslow, the power
> RHP in the Pawsox BP Travis Hughes, and Lancaster pitcher Hunter Jones? The
> 5 for one trade could inject a lot of talent into Pittsburgh and Jason Bay
> could propel the Sox out of their hitting funk and energize the team.
I agree Dave Littlefield can be difficult to deal with at times (For
Sauberbeck, he had asked for Nick Johnson and Claussen back in 2003),
but you never know. He was keen to dump Craig Wilson for nothing last
year. However, I think you're wrong to include Buchholz in any deal
at this point. He's a real blue chipper and if you're Theo you have
to hold onto those under any circumstances with Schilling aging at the
front of the rotation. Personally I wouldn't include Buchholz in any
deals unless it's for a starter in his prime (e.g., Santana if the
Twins have to dump him in his walk year). Bay is a good young hitter
but he's still a LF. You don't trade for him unless you know what to
do with Manny (move him to 1B? DH with the Devil playing 1B? Risk him
in RF?). I'm not certain if Bay can play CF and he doesn't have the
arm to play RF.
Wayback1918
Pittsburg has just started a "Send Bay to the Bay" promotion in an
attempt to get him on the All-star team.
I suppose they could trade him to the Red Sox and say that they
meant Cape Cod Bay.
smacdo
> With the Red Sox offense sucking exhaust fumes especially aginst LHP, Jason
> Bay would be a wonderful acquisition.
And he's a canuck!!
Gnork
British Columbia, that's the best. He would add to the international
flavor of the team.
Gnork
Thank you, that is interesting. It does say he was somewhat better in
2006 than in 2005 being 2 seasons removed from labrum surgery. No
matter what, I think his arm now has to be better than Coco Crisp and
Coco is playing CF exclusively since he came to Boston. Therefore,
there is no reason why Bay can't play CF for Boston. The stats in your
article make him appear to be below average at preventing runners from
advancing, but not terrible. the article also states "On the flip side
of the coin, Bay does a very good job of getting to balls in play and
converting them to outs as he is a click above the league average left
fielder. That's pretty good considering the size of LF at PNC."
Perhaps the lower rate in holding runners is partially due to the size
of PNC and/or the manager's preference as to where he is positioned.
Regardless, his offensive improvement far outweighs this as they rate
his runner holding ability costing about a dozen runs a year. They
don't say how many he saves with he above average ability to get to
and catch fly balls. In just the 100 or so games left in 2007 he would
be worth well more than that over Crisp offensively and I'm sure a
similar study of Crisp's throws would show him to be way, way below
average at holding runners so the defense may well be a net zero or
even a small gain.
Dano
"gnork" <gno...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:hX4ci.4090$tb6....@newsread3.news.pas.earthlink.net...
> With the Red Sox offense sucking exhaust fumes especially aginst LHP,
> Jason
> Bay would be a wonderful acquisition. He has an OPS over 1000 over the
> last
> 3 years against LHP. He is a proven quality hitter with plate discipline
> and
> power. He bats righty and has 41 career SBs with only 11 CS. Lifetime he
> is
> a .291 .387 .540 hitter. He is only 28. He would not come cheap. No JV
> JVs
> would be enough to get him. What might be enough and would you be willing
> to
> do it?
>
> If you want Bay you will have to offer some serious talent in exchange.
> How
> about the Red Sox top prospect P Clay Buchholz, the power potential of
> Wily
> Mo Pena, the excellent lefty reliever at Pawtucket Craig Breslow, the
> power
> RHP in the Pawsox BP Travis Hughes, and Lancaster pitcher Hunter Jones?
> The
> 5 for one trade could inject a lot of talent into Pittsburgh and Jason Bay
> could propel the Sox out of their hitting funk and energize the team.
>
Are you serious? Who is he to replace? Manny in left? And you're willing
to part with Buchholz for an OFer when it may be our strongest developmental
position? This might be your nuttiest proposal yet. Is this someone
*spoofing* the real Gnork? Madness.
Gnork
> "gnork" <gnor...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
>
> - Show quoted text -
Willing, yes. This team has a real chance of winning it all, but the
gapping holes in the offense are the biggest obstacle. I don't WANT to
trade Buchholz, but I am willing to do it to get a top player now.
Many top rated prospects fall by the wayside, especially pitchers. You
never can be sure. They could try offering Lars Anderson instead and
upgrading the deal a bit otherwise. I think they may well have to bite
the bullet to get Bay. I would do it and it would show that management
is serious about winning now. What are the odds that the value of
Buchholz's major league career will exceed the value that Bay will
provide from now on? I don't know, but it is far from a lock. Also, if
Bay provides 3 peak seasons including 2007 to Boston, it is okay if
Buchholz provides a bigger career value. That is called a good deal
for both teams and it could lead to multiple Red Sox championships.
BadgerBC
> Are you serious? Who is he to replace? Manny in left? And you're willing
> to part with Buchholz for an OFer when it may be our strongest developmental
> position?
I agree as I posted above. There's just not much they can do with
Lugo and Drew except waiting for them to regress toward their career
mean. I mean they're not going to sell them low at this point. Coco
is the ready-made target because you've got Ellsbury (btw Dave and I
thought last year that he'd be playing in CF at Fenway this year so
there's still time) nearly ready. I realize some have called Coco a
top CF, but I just don't see it at all. Even though you've got him at
the first quartile of CF in RF and ZR, I'm not sure if it isn't just
noise (even Derek had +5 in UZR one season). I'd wait for at least a
three year split before judging with some authority. My mk.I non-
scout eyeballs tell me he's not that good (bad routes and an arm
almost as bad as Bernie).
If I were Theo, I'd wait for a hot streak by Coco and dump him. Given
the relative strength of CF position around the majors, he ought to be
able to get value back IMHO. I still think Ellsbury can learn on the
job as he just needs to focus on getting on base at the top (or at no.
9 to start) of the lineup. Power is the last to develop for many
hitting prospects and IMHO you are wasting his defensive skills and
speed on the basepath. I still would rather have some speed at the
top but not at the price of giving away ABs (Coco). From what the
scouting reports have indicated and what many who'd seen him have
written, I think Ellsbury's swing is tailor-made for Fenway. Even if
he can't pull at this point, he may be able to generate 2B power just
by hitting naturally.
Dano
"Gnork" <gn...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1181835275.2...@n15g2000prd.googlegroups.com...
really think he can play CF do you? I'm no expert on him, but can he even
play RF?
Throws like Mary
> The one downside is Bay has mostly been a left fielder in his career in the
> majors. He has 508 games there with a ZR of .845. But...he has 40 games in
> CF with a ZR of .889 and one in RF with a 1.000 ZR. He would have to play CF
> with Drew in RF or vice-versa. Whatever, it can be dealt with. The offensive
> improvement would be overwhelming.
Gnork's statistical shortcomings aside (40 games or 508 games, which
has more statistical significance?) this is a horrible idea in a long
line of horrible ideas.
Wayback1918
> "gnork" <gnor...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
>
> - Show quoted text -
God forgive me for this but I agree with Dano <spit, spit>
Gnork there is no way that anything in that article could give you
reason to believe that Jason Bay could play Centerfield.
He is a "tick above league average" as a Leftfielder in the National
League.
There is an old saying that the NL has a DH too....they just call it
leftfield.
Bay is a tick above Pat Burrel, Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds and Carlos Lee.
Give it up...move on.
Pittsburg won't trade a guy they have just started an All-star
promotion for.
Your right in that we to fix CF......but ain't the answer.
GraveDigger
may be held captive by the brainless trust of Nutting & McClatchy until the
trading deadline in 2009. No way is he a Pirate beyond that date as he'll
cost more than revenue sharing will pay to resign him.
"Wayback1918" <wayba...@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:1181841787.7...@i38g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
Todd
>
> Gnork there is no way that anything in that article could give you
> reason to believe that Jason Bay could play Centerfield.
>
> He is a "tick above league average" as a Leftfielder in the National
> League.
>
> There is an old saying that the NL has a DH too....they just call it
> leftfield.
>
> Bay is a tick above Pat Burrel, Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds and Carlos Lee.
>
> Give it up...move on.
>
> Pittsburg won't trade a guy they have just started an All-star
> promotion for.
>
> Your right in that we to fix CF......but ain't the answer.
>
I disagree. There aren't many above average LFs that are incapable of
playing CF in Fenway. The best setup in that situation might be for Bay
to play CF in Fenway and Drew to play CF on the road. It's not the
worst idea I ever heard, and dangling Buchholz might be what it takes to
get it done. I don't know Bay's current contract situation, but he must
be getting close to free agency. And it would give Boston the ability
to let Manny walk at the end of his deal if they could sign Bay.
Slight problem that leaves is that I think there needs to be a spot for
Ellsbury to start next season in CF. I don't think this would be my 1st
choice to solve CF, but I would definitely explore it if other options
were unavailable.
smacdo
> Willing, yes. This team has a real chance of winning it all, but the
> gapping holes in the offense are the biggest obstacle. I don't WANT to
> trade Buchholz, but I am willing to do it to get a top player now.
> Many top rated prospects fall by the wayside, especially pitchers.
And then will you complain later in the same manner as, say, folks have
about the Beckett trade? Or maybe the Freddy Sanchez trade?
smacdo
>
> That doesn't answer my question of where is he going to play. You can't
> really think he can play CF do you? I'm no expert on him, but can he
> even play RF?
IIRC he has played some CF for the Pirates...but I wouldn't say how
much. Perhaps, since this is x-posted...a Pirates fan could chime in?
john.va...@gmail.com
So, despite a payroll around *140 million dollars*, they haven't shown
that they're serious about winning now?
> What are the odds that the value of
> Buchholz's major league career will exceed the value that Bay will
> provide from now on? I don't know, but it is far from a lock. Also, if
> Bay provides 3 peak seasons including 2007 to Boston, it is okay if
> Buchholz provides a bigger career value. That is called a good deal
> for both teams and it could lead to multiple Red Sox championships.-
You don't build for long-term success by trading away stud pitching
prospects for good position players. You trade away stud position
prospects and get great pitching. That's what the Hanley Ramirez deal
was all about.
Buchholz should be an untouchable, unless the guy coming back is named
something like Pujols, Santana, etc. Not Jason Bay.
Baseball-reference.com lists the following guys by way of comparison:
Similar Batters:
Matt Holliday (933)
Hideki Matsui (918)
Craig Wilson (909)
Miguel Cabrera (904)
Kevin Mench (904)
Austin Kearns (903)
Juan Rivera (900)
Travis Hafner (900)
Craig Monroe (898)
Luke Easter (896)
Similar Batters through Age 27:
Norm Cash (944)
Geoff Jenkins (944)
Jim Edmonds (944)
Hack Wilson (935) *
Bobby Higginson (934)
Ryan Klesko (931)
Tim Salmon (929)
J.D. Drew (925)
Aubrey Huff (924)
Jason Giambi (923)
Other than Hack Wilson, this is a list of pretty decent (Geoff
Jenkins) to very good (Jim Edmonds) players. If Bay continues and
ends up with similar careers to Jim Edmonds or Hack Wilson (haha),
great. But if he ends up being Kevin Mench (see #5 in the first
list), then you simply cannot trade away a stud like Buchholz for him.
Put it this way: if you put a package of Buchholz, Breslow, Wily Mo
Pena, Travis Hughes, and Hunter Jones out to the rest of the league as
a package, you better get back a *lot* more than Jason Bay.
John
Dano
"smacdo" <fa...@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:WFfci.103174$Y_.7...@read1.cgocable.net...
All I know is they don't even list him on their depth chart for CF on the
team website. Or as a RF back-up for that matter. Same on the ESPN team
page. I'm guessing they should know his abilities...or lack thereof.
Wayback1918
> > God forgive me for this but I agree with Dano <spit, spit>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > Gnork there is no way that anything in that article could give you
> > reason to believe that Jason Bay could play Centerfield.
>
> > He is a "tick above league average" as a Leftfielder in the National
> > League.
>
> > There is an old saying that the NL has a DH too....they just call it
> > leftfield.
>
> > Bay is a tick above Pat Burrel, Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds and Carlos Lee.
>
> > Give it up...move on.
>
> > Pittsburg won't trade a guy they have just started an All-star
> > promotion for.
>
> > Your right in that we to fix CF......but ain't the answer.
>
> I disagree. There aren't many above average LFs that are incapable of
> playing CF in Fenway.
What could you possibly base that statement on?
Just of the top of my head
1946 Dom Dimaggio
1967 Reggie Smith
1975 Fred Lynn
1986 Dave Henderson
2004 Damon
Where are the centerfielders who are really just above average
leftfielders?
McDuck
>
>IIRC he has played some CF for the Pirates...but I wouldn't say how
>much. Perhaps, since this is x-posted...a Pirates fan could chime in?
LF: 444 CF: 40 RF: 1
Decent year, so far, but well off his career average for OPS (.864 =
2007; .927 = career).
gig
So Bay has some cracks in the armor? Still one of the best in the game
overall. A class-act guy too. You ain't gettin' him RedSox. No way. Not in
100 years. Fahgettahboutit! Thanks for Freddy Sanchez though! :-)
Better not look over your shoulder, something might be gaining on you.
Yankees are catching uuuuuup! (I see they won today again.)
Still, I hate the Yanks and would rather see you guys win the division. Damn
Yankees though, they have a good team. Tough bullpen right now. They made
the Pirates look like Little Leaguers last weekend. And the Pirates are
returning the favor against the Rangers now. It's all relative though I
guess... I hear there are some teams from other dimensions that would make
Albert Pujols look like Mario Mendoza! Yikes!
gig
gig
I don't care what the "stats" say, Bay is a good left fielder. I've watched
him play out there for the last 3-plus years and the guy can more than pull
his own weight out there. He had a rough series against the Yanks
defensively which probably prompted the recent questioning of his defensive
play, but up until last week, and still with anyone who has seen him play
for any length of time, he is a good outfielder.
He has played CF for the Pirates a little bit. No real issues I saw when he
did. Perhaps not the arm you would have in center, but I just saw Kenny
Lofton's arm last night and he makes Bay's look like Roberto's! He is best
and most comfortable I would say, in left though. It's his natural position
IMHO.
You still can't have him though, and if the Pirates ever trade him, it would
seriously damage my faith in mankind. Anyway... where's Manny these days?
Still in left I would presume. Don't watch much American League baseball,
but when I do, I like to watch the R.Sox. Always a good show, especially in
Fenway.
gig
Gnork
Which Pittsburg, Kansas or CA?
>
> Your right in that we to fix CF......but ain't the answer.- Hide quoted text -
>
It is funny how all of a sudden the CF's arm is so important. Crisp
can't hit or throw.
Wayback1918
>
> - Show quoted text -
I don't think a strong arm in centerfield is the most important
asset.....range is. But again being slightly above average vs
National League LF doesn't impress at all.
Look you want trade a player that the Red Sox have no intention of
giving up....
.....for a player the Pirates have no intention of giving up (and have
no financial reason too).....
...too play a position there is no evidence he can play.
You must have something else....?
....
gnork
LOL. I have made lots of proposals. I expected this one to be unpopular.
Whether you argee or not at least I was in the forefront in identifying
Crisp as a problem that needed action. I think they should make moves,
either big or small (I have proposed relatively minor deals which have gone
largely ignored) and do these moves rapidly. Epstein seems like a dawdler
and overanalyzer to me. Crisp. Mirabelli, Timlin and Hinske should be gone
by the weekend. Internal replacements could be Moss and Scales, Javier
Valentin surely could be traded for without a great cost and one other
position player should be added. I think Ellsbury should stay in AAA for a
while longer.
>
> ....
>
Wayback1918
> "Wayback1918" <wayback1...@verizon.net> wrote in message
>
> - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
Replacing Mirabelli is must...Moss for Hinske is good.
For what we need in centerfield I would think a veteran power hitter,
Hunter or Griffey, would be best.
However.... Ellsbury does have 4 straight games with 2 hits and did
have 2 doubles last night. If he continues on that pace I'd have to
change my mind.
Gnork
>
> - Show quoted text -
Re: Griffey, I hope you weren't knocking Bay as a possible
centerfielder. Last year Griffey's CF rating was so low that they
moved the icon to RF this year. He is no longer the fast player he
used to be and Jason Bay would be far superior to him in center. He
also is still due a lot of money. The Twins won't trade Hunter and he
likely would not be worth what it would cost to try and get them to
change their minds. As for Ellsbury I am willing to have him change my
mind. They could replace the unfantastic four with Valentin, Ellsbury,
Moss, and Scales. It would be an infusion of energy and talent.
Wayback1918
>
> - Show quoted text -
Oh I'm absolutely saying, catagorically, that Griffey even now, would
be a better centerfielder than Bay.
Last year Griffey got to more balls per game (RF 2.43) than Bay did
when he played there two years ago (2.41). Griffey has a huge
advantage in throwing. I suppose its been so long here since we've
had a centerfield who can throw that we've forgotten what an asset
that can be.
Your suggesting taking a player who is only average at the weakest
point in the defensive spectrum and moving him to a far more demanding
position he is unfamiliar with in park that he has never played in.
Yea I'm knocking it.
Griffey, a nine time golden glove winner, is still playing very well
in the outfield...even in his sleep.... even unconscious....hell even
dead, he could play the position better.
Dano
But not when inhabiting the DL...