Wagner redux?
Dano
Reliever Billy Wagner's agent, Bean Stringfellow, told the Boston Herald
that his client might be open to accepting arbitration if the Red Sox offer
it. Wagner is a Type A free agent and would allow the Sox to receive two
draft picks if he declined arbitration and signed with another team.
"Will Billy reject [arbitration]?" Stringfellow said to the Herald. "I just
visited with Billy and his family the other day and I can tell you this
much: Billy thoroughly enjoyed his time in Boston. It was one of the best
experiences he has ever had in baseball. So, does he rule out accepting
arbitration? No, he doesn't."
Wagner had garnered the assurance of the Red Sox that they wouldn't pick up
his $8 million option for 2010, allowing the pitcher to pursue opportunities
to become a closer with another team. Wagner had told WEEI.com during the
season that accepting arbitration wasn't thought to be a path he was ready
to explore.
"I know they're going to offer me arbitration, and of course I'm probably
going to turn it down," Wagner said. "I have a million people telling me why
would you turn down the option, or why would you do this or that. Well, I
didn't come in this game looking for money, I was just good enough to make
some."
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/215017/report-wagner-open-arbitration
Ray O'Hara
"Dano" <janea...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:hdf026$u6t$1...@news.eternal-september.org...
> Rob Bradford reports:
> Reliever Billy Wagner's agent, Bean Stringfellow, told the Boston Herald
> that his client might be open to accepting arbitration if the Red Sox
> offer it. Wagner is a Type A free agent and would allow the Sox to receive
> two draft picks if he declined arbitration and signed with another team.
>
> "Will Billy reject [arbitration]?" Stringfellow said to the Herald. "I
> just visited with Billy and his family the other day and I can tell you
> this much: Billy thoroughly enjoyed his time in Boston. It was one of the
> best experiences he has ever had in baseball. So, does he rule out
> accepting arbitration? No, he doesn't."
It would be nice to keep him.
and if he's serious about wanting to play for a winner Boston is a good
choice.
McDuck
We should also consider the possibility that Billy is trying to
convince Boston he ***might*** accept arbitration b/c he wants the RS
not to offer it.
Recall THAT was Billy's initial position on waiving his no-trade right
--- that Boston not pick up his option (agreed) and not offer
arbitration (not agreed). Billy is worth more on the FA market if
Boston does not offer him arbitration. In practice, the value of the
picks losts comes out of Billy's future salary. (Not completely, but
you get the idea.)
From the RS perspective, it is a no-brainer to offer arbitration if
Billy will refuse. But not so clear if Billy might accept. Billy might
get a v. good payday in arbitration. He's been one of the top closers
for a long time. Arbitration pays for what you were, not for what
people think you will be next year (which is what sets the price in
the AF market).
The RS cannot be eager to pay Billy $12 m as a setup man. Not saying
that is what he'd get, but he'd get a good payday and there is a risk
of a really big payday. Remember the Clemens fiasco when he went to
arbitration with the Astros.
Ray O'Hara
"McDuck" <wallyDELE...@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:r6kmf5t5fak4cl0s4...@4ax.com...
Look at the season Paps had, with all the one inning never back to back
teams need two closers.
Offer it.
Gary
I heard today that since Wager, as a free agent, accepts arbitration,
the rules are different in that there is no mandatory limit to the
Sox offer. In other words, the Sox could, by way of example, put their
offer at $4M.
With a non-free agent arbitration case, such as Papelbon, there is a
limit to how much they could reduce the offer.
Also, since Theo has been GM, no Sox player has gone to arbitration.
If Wagner returns, it will be for a lower salary than $12M.
McDuck
wrote:
I'm a bit confused. I realize the RS are not stuck with the rule that
you can't cut the salary by, I think, more than 20%. But the RS need
to make a competitive bid or Wagner will win the arbitration. At least
that is how I think it works --- RS can but inaa low-ball bid if they
want, Wagner puts in a bid consistent with his reather impressive past
performance, and the arbitrator picks hat he thinks is the best bid.
Gary
<wallyDELE...@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>I'm a bit confused. I realize the RS are not stuck with the rule that
>you can't cut the salary by, I think, more than 20%. But the RS need
>to make a competitive bid or Wagner will win the arbitration. At least
>that is how I think it works --- RS can but inaa low-ball bid if they
>want, Wagner puts in a bid consistent with his reather impressive past
>performance, and the arbitrator picks hat he thinks is the best bid.
True, but how much leverage does Wagner have in arbitration when he
only played for a month last season? Plus, if he makes it to
arbitration, it would be a first for Theo.
Dano
> McDuck <wallyDELE...@comcast.net> wrote:
>> I'm a bit confused. I realize the RS are not stuck with the rule that
>> you can't cut the salary by, I think, more than 20%. But the RS need
>> to make a competitive bid or Wagner will win the arbitration. At
>> least that is how I think it works --- RS can but inaa low-ball bid
>> if they want, Wagner puts in a bid consistent with his reather
>> impressive past performance, and the arbitrator picks hat he thinks
>> is the best bid.
>
> don't compromise or come up with something on their own. So if the
> Sox offer Wagner fifty cents and Wagner proposes 15 million dollars,
> he's going to be getting the 15 million dollars.
Yes. But it cuts both ways. In his case it's a bit tougher to guess which
way an arbitrator will lean. I think it's in the interest of both sides to
agree on a fair deal.
Dano
> Dano <janea...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> Yes. But it cuts both ways. In his case it's a bit tougher to
>> guess which way an arbitrator will lean. I think it's in the
>> interest of both sides to agree on a fair deal.
>
> ballpark" and the other one was "way off base", the arbitrator will go
> with the former, even if it's a bit off of what it should be.
Yeah. I get it. Something tells me Theo does as well. Just my wild hunch.
McDuck
wrote:
My initial point was that Wagner may be implicitly threatening to
accept arbitration to get the RS not to offer it. I think that there
is a very good chance that an arbitrator would look at Wagner's stats
when healthy in setting the price. He does have an impressive past.
Theo might settle with Wagner if Wagner actually were interested in
playing for the RS next year, which I tend to doubt. From past
experience, we can assume he would try. But I doubt he would not get a
settlement at a low-ball number --- he'd have to offer closer money.
McDuck
>Dano <janea...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> Yes. But it cuts both ways. In his case it's a bit tougher to guess which
>> way an arbitrator will lean. I think it's in the interest of both sides to
>> agree on a fair deal.
>
>Agreed .... my point was just that if one side was at least "in the
>ballpark" and the other one was "way off base", the arbitrator will go
>with the former, even if it's a bit off of what it should be.
I guess we agree.
Gary
I a not sure what leverage Wagner has in arbitration coming off arm
surgery and only pitching for the last month of the season.
Even if Wagner goes to arbitration and wins, the Sox still have an
out, one that Theo mentioned in Chicago. he said if Wagner is too
expensive as a setup man, he can eventually be traded. Theo mentioned
the date of June 15.
Dano
I can sense your disappointment. :)
Dano
"Gary" <golfe...@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:kslpf5p72dv3sbja8...@4ax.com...
Ah...good point. Bottom line is he is too valuable to not get what they can
for him. I would still love him to stay.
Tristan daCunha
S/B 954RR
"McDuck" <wallyDELE...@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:qicnf5pkjuqfilq6p...@4ax.com...
That's right but they don't just submit bids, they both get to make an
argument (ugly sometimes I hear) for their submission. Either way, if the
Sox low ball, Wagner will win.
Dano
"S/B 954RR" <jtib...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:7m71krF...@mid.individual.net...
He might win financially...but how much will he and his agent push the
envelope themselves? If they aim too high...they run a risk as well. I
also have to think he really does have some understandable interest in
attaining that save number he's approaching. If his goal is to get his
freedom, this would be a risky way to try to get that.
Wayback1918
> "McDuck" <wallyDELETEMEMcD...@comcast.net> wrote in message
>
> news:qicnf5pkjuqfilq6p...@4ax.com...
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:24:09 -0500, Gary <golfera...@comcast.net>
>
> - Show quoted text -
It's fairly easy to see what the range is for a top closer.
Mariano Rivera $15,000,000 (2008-10)
Brad Lidge $12,500,000 (2009-11)
Francisco Rodriguez $12,333,333 (2009-11)
Joe Nathan $11,750,000 (2008-11)
Francisco Cordero $11,500,000 (2008-11)
Billy Wagner $10,750,000 (2006-09)
Kerry Wood $10,250,000 (2009-10)
B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)
Brian Fuentes $8,750,000 (2009-10)
Trevor Hoffman $8,000,000 (2010)
I would think the range (if they are arguing closer money) would be
between $9 Million and $11 Million. If either side went outside that
range they would be taking a risk.
......but it could be the Red Sox' argument that Wagner is not their
closer and should be paid nearer to the average of a good setup man.
Gary
<wayba...@verizon.net> wrote:
>
>It's fairly easy to see what the range is for a top closer.
>
>Mariano Rivera $15,000,000 (2008-10)
>Brad Lidge $12,500,000 (2009-11)
>Francisco Rodriguez $12,333,333 (2009-11)
>Joe Nathan $11,750,000 (2008-11)
>Francisco Cordero $11,500,000 (2008-11)
>Billy Wagner $10,750,000 (2006-09)
>Kerry Wood $10,250,000 (2009-10)
>B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)
>Brian Fuentes $8,750,000 (2009-10)
>Trevor Hoffman $8,000,000 (2010)
>
>I would think the range (if they are arguing closer money) would be
>between $9 Million and $11 Million. If either side went outside that
>range they would be taking a risk.
>
>......but it could be the Red Sox' argument that Wagner is not their
>closer and should be paid nearer to the average of a good setup man.
The big difference between Wagner and most of the successful closers
last year was that he wasn't a closer last season and only pitched a
month after surgery.
Dano
"Wayback1918" <wayba...@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:1d1bc328-a840-4508...@l13g2000yqb.googlegroups.com...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't think that type of argument will hold a lot of water with an
arbitrator really. What MIGHT though is his age and the risk factor
considering his recnt health issues. If they are going to look at his most
recent numbers...it's clear he wasn't a full time closer when last we
looked. That has to be a consideration I would think. Again...I really
think it's in the interest of both parties to make a deal without risking
the arbitrary decision of an arbitrator.
McDuck
wrote:
Thanks, Wayback, for the numbers. the range is narrower than I had
imagined.
Yes, Gary, hat is the argument--- that Wagner is coming off a serious
injury. But he did pitch pretty well after surgery --- amazingly well
under the circumstances.
Arbitrators, almost by definition, can do what they want, and some are
not really baseball people. But I think it is unlikely that the RS
would get anywhere claiming Wagner, a top closer for many years, was
not a closer b/c the RS intended to use him in a different capacity.
Could NYY beat Mariano in arbitration by claiming they planned to use
him next year as a set up guy for Hughes? Okay, over the top. But if
the RS took Youk to arbitration, could they slot him as a DH to get
him into a ower bracket?
I think the arbitrator will look to what a guy did in the past (mostly
recent past), not what he might do in the future. As I indicated in a
prior post, arbitration is backward looking, whereas the FA market is
forward looking.
Gary
<wallyDELE...@comcast.net> wrote:
>Yes, Gary, hat is the argument--- that Wagner is coming off a serious
>injury. But he did pitch pretty well after surgery --- amazingly well
>under the circumstances.
>
>Arbitrators, almost by definition, can do what they want, and some are
>not really baseball people. But I think it is unlikely that the RS
>would get anywhere claiming Wagner, a top closer for many years, was
>not a closer b/c the RS intended to use him in a different capacity.
>Could NYY beat Mariano in arbitration by claiming they planned to use
>him next year as a set up guy for Hughes? Okay, over the top. But if
>the RS took Youk to arbitration, could they slot him as a DH to get
>him into a ower bracket?
>
>I think the arbitrator will look to what a guy did in the past (mostly
>recent past), not what he might do in the future. As I indicated in a
>prior post, arbitration is backward looking, whereas the FA market is
>forward looking.
But, facts are facts. He only pitched for a month last season and not
as a closer. I don't know what an arbitrator will look at. I imagine
neither do you.
Beyond that, considering part history, Wagner, if he accepts
arbitration, which I think is still doubtful, probably will sign
before he gets to arbitration. If he doesn't and the award is too high
for the Sox, they can trade him after June 15.
Dano
Of course not. But that isn't the same at all. If Youk were coming off an
injury...and was nearing the end of his realistic playing days...and had
only come back late into last season...and there were serious questions
about him being capable of playing the field...kind of like Mike Lowell...I
certainly think that would be considered.
>
> I think the arbitrator will look to what a guy did in the past (mostly
> recent past), not what he might do in the future. As I indicated in a
> prior post, arbitration is backward looking, whereas the FA market is
> forward looking.
So what exactly did Wagner DO in his most recent past? He pitched 15
innings last year and only 47 the previous one. Do you really think that
age and injury and expected natural decline are not, and should not be
reasonably considered by an arbitrator? The guy is 38 and not at all far
removed from a serious injury. That would seem to me to be a major
mitigating circumstance.
As you rightly point out...arbitrators can pretty much do what they want.
They listen to both sides and may not even be knowledgable (though I think
most are at least as well versed as most fans) and decide. That's why most
cases don't reach them. It's a risk to either side. It just makes more
sense for the parties to come to an agreement, which is the real value to
the system.
McDuck
wrote:
Clemens scared the life out of the Astros and for $23 million or
whatever so that the Astros could avoid arbitration. Wagner is not
THAT scary, but he is a worry. That's my entire point <g>.
I understand the RS also can cut Wagner in ST and pay only a small
part of the salary awarded to him. If the price for Wagner is too high
for the RS, I'm guessing he would not have a lot of trade value.
Dano
There is also the possibility that he does well in spring training and they
trade him for high value. Why choose to think negatively? As they
say...nothing ventured...nothing gained. The alterrnative is to let him go
for nothing is it not?