Els worth will no way be $20,000,000 per. Add the glut of FA out fielders and his previous injuries, it will be hard to get 20 mil value in a trade. I'd be inclined to keep him. Trading him will only create another hole. The present line up is watered down enough. Hamilton stays where he is. I also think mega million spending on attractive FAs may be not as frequent by the Red Sox. They kind of got burned by Dice K, Lackey, Crawford, etc.... now that they got some of those monkeys off of their backs they may be reluctant to delve into large contracts on that same scale. They need to focus on the high OBP players ala Billy Beane.
Els worth will no way be $20,000,000 per. Add the glut of FA out fielders
and his previous injuries, it will be hard to get 20 mil value in a trade.
I'd be inclined to keep him. Trading him will only create another hole.
The present line up is watered down enough. Hamilton stays where he is. I
also think mega million spending on attractive FAs may be not as frequent by
the Red Sox. They kind of got burned by Dice K, Lackey, Crawford, etc....
now that they got some of those monkeys off of their backs they may be
reluctant to delve into large contracts on that same scale. They need to
focus on the high OBP players ala Billy Beane.
Well I think it all depends on what offers they get. I'd entertain all offers...for anyone on this team. He IS one of only a couple I would be reluctant to move along with Pedroia. Of course you would want high value in return. If you can't get it...don't do it. But you only "create another hole" if you fail to fill another...possibly harder to fill hole. They have some solid outfield prospects who are not that far from coming up like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Juan Carlos Linares. I doubt whether this team will be ready to contend seriously for a couple of years anyway.
As for what teams will be willing to pay for Ells...or anyone else. People always say salaries won't go higher. And then they do. Ells WILL probably get 20+ mil...IF he has a terrific year. Even a "good" year. Boras will get him his money. I just doubt it will be here. Smart to cash in while they can...IF they can.
I'd keep Ells for 2013 and see what happens. His value will be fairly
low if he has another injury season but high if he repeats 2011.
Unless he wants a 3 year deal cheap, which I do not think he wants,
I'd just wait.
I'd keep Ells for 2013 and see what happens. His value will be fairly
low if he has another injury season but high if he repeats 2011.
Unless he wants a 3 year deal cheap, which I do not think he wants,
I'd just wait.
==============================================
Wait for what? If he does well at all...he's most likely gone. So you're happy with draft picks? They COULD trade him during the season. If they should...his value will be low as a pure rental...one who will NOT garner the team who trades for him any draft picks. They will also have no advantage in signing him to a FA contract. The Red Sox could actually sign him as easily...IF they want to pony up the hundred million+ or so to land him. Can't forget the Boras factor either.
It's all about value. Does he even have any right now? He didn't exactly show many flashes of baseball brilliance this year.
> I'd keep Ells for 2013 and see what happens. His value will be fairly
> low if he has another injury season but high if he repeats 2011.
> Unless he wants a 3 year deal cheap, which I do not think he wants,
> I'd just wait.
why do people think he might have another season lost to injury in 2013? he's healed up, isn't he? i can't think of any reason to contemplate his being injured next season.
> > I'd keep Ells for 2013 and see what happens. His value will be fairly
> > low if he has another injury season but high if he repeats 2011.
> > Unless he wants a 3 year deal cheap, which I do not think he wants,
> > I'd just wait.
> why do people think he might have another season lost to injury in 2013? he's healed up, isn't he? i can't think of any reason to contemplate his being injured next season.
The injuries that he's had have for the most part been unpredictable accidents--Beltre crushing his ribs, having a player fall on his shoulder, e.g. How can you expect that to happen to him more than any other player?
But I do have a gut feeling that he'll be gone via FA; that the Sox won't match Bora$$'s asking price or length of contract. So I'd trade him if the right offer came along (not involving Josh Hamilton).
> > I'd keep Ells for 2013 and see what happens. His value will be fairly
> > low if he has another injury season but high if he repeats 2011.
> > Unless he wants a 3 year deal cheap, which I do not think he wants,
> > I'd just wait.
> why do people think he might have another season lost to injury in 2013? > he's healed up, isn't he? i can't think of any reason to contemplate his > being injured next season.
The injuries that he's had have for the most part been
unpredictable accidents--Beltre crushing his ribs, having a
player fall on his shoulder, e.g. How can you expect that
to happen to him more than any other player?
But I do have a gut feeling that he'll be gone via
FA; that the Sox won't match Bora$$'s asking price or
length of contract. So I'd trade him if the right offer came
along (not involving Josh Hamilton).
==============================================
Well he IS 29 now. With only THREE full seasons out of six. Whatever the reasons for his injuries, you have to take that into consideration. There is such a thing as being accident prone.
As I have said often...I sure wouldn't give him away. If the offer is good enough I'd definitely consider it. If they're ever going to rebuild the team at all, this might be the year to do so. If they could get some good young talent...especially pitching...they could find a way to make do in the outfield. Look at all the more than adequate fill ins they've found in recent years. They aren't going to compete until they beef up the pitching anyway. And I prefer to reload and develop our own young arms for the future. Over-priced free agent pitchers are proving to NOT be a good bet. If they can't get really good value, you hold him till he leaves and take the draft picks though. He will be taking as big a risk as the team. One more injury...and a thirty year old oft injured CF'er won't be worth what he thinks.
> > > I'd keep Ells for 2013 and see what happens. His value will be fairly
> > > low if he has another injury season but high if he repeats 2011.
> > > Unless he wants a 3 year deal cheap, which I do not think he wants,
> > > I'd just wait.
> > why do people think he might have another season lost to injury in 2013? he's healed up, isn't he? i can't think of any reason to contemplate his being injured next season.
> The injuries that he's had have for the most part been
> unpredictable accidents--Beltre crushing his ribs, having a
> player fall on his shoulder, e.g. How can you expect that
> to happen to him more than any other player?
> But I do have a gut feeling that he'll be gone via
> FA; that the Sox won't match Bora$$'s asking price or
> length of contract. So I'd trade him if the right offer came
> along (not involving Josh Hamilton).
Is it reasonable to be concerned about the length of time he takes to
come back from injuries?
On Mon, 15 Oct 2012 08:28:08 -0700 (PDT), PETER SHORTS
<petersh...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>On Saturday, October 13, 2012 2:24:41 PM UTC-4, McDuck wrote:
>> On Sat, 13 Oct 2012 06:54:17 -0700 (PDT), BTT <BTTalbot2...@yahoo.com>
>> I'd keep Ells for 2013 and see what happens. His value will be fairly
>> low if he has another injury season but high if he repeats 2011.
>> Unless he wants a 3 year deal cheap, which I do not think he wants,
>> I'd just wait.
>why do people think he might have another season lost to injury in 2013? he's healed up, isn't he? i can't think of any reason to contemplate his being injured next season.
I don't anticipate injuries. But Ells did not play all that well when
he did play this year. 2011 so far is the exception in terms of great
performance.
So, I'd give Ells a 3 year deal based on overall performance, not a 7
year deal based on 2011. And I'd pay the big bucks needed to sign him
in 2014 if he repeats 2011 in 2013.
<wayback1...@verizon.net> wrote:
>On Oct 15, 3:46 pm, BTT <BTTalbot2...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> On Monday, October 15, 2012 11:28:08 AM UTC-4, PETER SHORTS wrote:
>> > On Saturday, October 13, 2012 2:24:41 PM UTC-4, McDuck wrote:
>> > > On Sat, 13 Oct 2012 06:54:17 -0700 (PDT), BTT <BTTalbot2...@yahoo.com>
>> > > wrote:
>> > > >He's a free agent after next season; changes in compensation rules may complicate things:
>> > > I'd keep Ells for 2013 and see what happens. His value will be fairly
>> > > low if he has another injury season but high if he repeats 2011.
>> > > Unless he wants a 3 year deal cheap, which I do not think he wants,
>> > > I'd just wait.
>> > why do people think he might have another season lost to injury in 2013? he's healed up, isn't he? i can't think of any reason to contemplate his being injured next season.
>> The injuries that he's had have for the most part been
>> unpredictable accidents--Beltre crushing his ribs, having a
>> player fall on his shoulder, e.g. How can you expect that
>> to happen to him more than any other player?
>> But I do have a gut feeling that he'll be gone via
>> FA; that the Sox won't match Bora$$'s asking price or
>> length of contract. So I'd trade him if the right offer came
>> along (not involving Josh Hamilton).
>Is it reasonable to be concerned about the length of time he takes to
>come back from injuries?
I'm concerned, some. Not clear I'm unreasonable on that issue.
