Desparetely seeking David (Norman)
Sam Hutcheson
few of my business trips takes me to Danville, VA and Myrtle Beach is
a bit of a haul for a weekender. Nonetheless, some notes of interest
from the farm:
The Myrtle Beach Sun News confirms that three Pelicans have been
promoted to AA-Mississippi. Top of the class is the Braves offensive
version of Tommy Hanson. Jason Heyward is only 19 but was tearing up
Carolina League pitching to the tune of 296/369/519. That .519 SLG%
stands out considering his home park is nortoriously pitcher
friendly. Heyward projects to relieve Atlanta of our long Frenchified
nightmare in RF come 2011. If he fares well in MS this year he could
skip AAA-Gwinnett altogether. He's that good.
As Heyward is to Tommy Hanson, so Freddie Freeman is to Kris Medlen.
Overshadowed and rightly so, Freeman still projects to take over 1B in
Atlanta about the same time Casey Kotchman goes free agent (2011.)
Freeman posted a better than respectable 302/394/447, again in MB's
power-killing Coastal Field.
Pelican closer Thomas Palica gets the call to MS as well. The 21 year
old was striking out a man an inning with decent K/BB rates,
continuing his solid relief work from last year (in A-Rome.) With
that said, he's a minor league closer. Nothing projects until he's
striking out a man an inning in AAA, at the least.
Looking down the line at Rome's roster, no one seems to be demanding a
shot at replacing Heyward or Freeman at the next level. No
annoucements have been made aside from the flip-flopping of Matthew
Kennelly and Jesus Sucre as MB/Rome catchers, respectively, regarding
call-ups. Kennelly tore the cover off the ball in Rome, was promoted
to MB where he was completely overmatched. He's on his way back to
Rome and Sucre takes his spot on the Pelicans roster. You might see
Gerardo Rodriguez promoted to fill Freeman's slot at 1B but there's no
"prospect projection" concerning a 21-year old 1B hitting 258/301/475
in A-ball.
The franchise may get creative and have some of this year's draft
class skip the Sally alogether, going straight from the Appy League to
Adv-A. This year marked a notable (and noted) change in draft
strategy for the Braves, where they ditched their tradition high-
school heavy draft in favor of college and junior college players. In
early action, that strategy has succeeded as they have quite a few
players killing the ball at Danville.
Most notable is a big ju-co first baseman taken out of Nova
Southeastern University (Ft Lauderdale, FL) in the 16th round. Aside
from hitting a monstrous 543/575/857 (yeah, that's BA/OBP/SLG) in his
first 40 professional plate appearances, the 21 year old South African
also replaces Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the jersey-tailor's worst
nightmare. Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg. The Braves have a history of
promoting across levels with superb talent out of their foriegn
rookies league. Yunel Escobar jumped a level after posting a 1200+
OPS there, for example. It wouldn't be shocking if Spanjer-Furstenburg
replaced Freeman for the Pelicans.
Similarly, 21 year old Adam Milligan (439/500/756 in 41 at bats) is a
reasonable replacement for Heyward in the OF.
On a side note, we'd love to see Boog Sciambi and Joe Simpson have to
stumble through an inning of Spanjer-Furstenburg at first and Daniel
Elorriaga-Matra catching. Make it a DH league so we can fit backup 1B
Ryohei Shimabukuro in as well.
Last note: there are whispers that Brooks Conrad, 2B from Gwinnett,
is on the verge of a call-up. Not sure who he would replace on the
big league roster. He might outhit Diory Hernandez but he doesn't
list as a SS. Kelly Johnson is out of options, but a "stress related"
DL stint might send him to AAA to straighten out his swing.
s/
Marty Winn
Jason Heyward : Tommy Hanson :: Freddie Freeman : Kris Medlen
or
Tommy Hanson : Kris Medlen :: Jason Heyward : Freddie Freeman
?
I guess both kind of work but I like grouping the 2 pitchers together
better:lesser and then grouping the 2 hitters better:lesser.
Seeking the Light,
Marty Winn
Bob Horton
news:e290e40e-9b19-4522...@g31g2000yqc.googlegroups.com...
Also, in the FWIW category, Baseball America projects Freeman's power
numbers to increase significantly. IMO, we really need a power bat at 1B.
--
Bob Horton
Sam Hutcheson
wrote:
> "Marty Winn" <marty.w...@gmail.com> wrote in message
You mean a first baseman who hasn't seen 85% of his career homeruns
hit in parks with RF power alleys of 370 or less? Yeah, we could use
one of those guys.
s/
Colin William
> You mean a first baseman who hasn't seen 85% of his career homeruns
> hit in parks with RF power alleys of 370 or less? Yeah, we could use
> one of those guys.
We didn't make out badly from trading Adam LaRoche - Mike Gonzalez has
been useful for us, and Lillibridge ended up part of the Vazquez trade.
Still, we haven't been able to replace LaRoche's bat at 1B.
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
Well, there was that Teixeira guy for a while.
s/
Colin William
> Well, there was that Teixeira guy for a while.
For one whole year! And he begat Kotchman...
Colin
Ben B
you mispelt "mcgriff's." hth
--
Ben
ps would it be too much to ask for a corner outfielder, too? we
haven't replaced ryan klesko's bat either ...
Sam Hutcheson
> > we haven't been able to replace LaRoche's bat at 1B.
>
> you mispelt "mcgriff's." hth
>
> --
> Ben
>
> ps would it be too much to ask for a corner outfielder, too? we
> haven't replaced ryan klesko's bat either ...
The fact that Matt Diaz and Martin Prado are competing for the title
of "best corner offensive player not named Chipper" is just terrible.
Those guys are spare parts on a pennant worthy club. You don't want
to block Schafer and Heyward with a long term contract but I'd
seriously try to move Hudson's final year ($12 mil) add in the change
they're paying Glavine, Anderson and Francoeur (2.5, 1 and 3.5) and
make a run at Jason Bay. Four years, $15 mil or thereabouts. Would
consider something lesser for Holliday. If Schafer and Heyward push
the OF situation early then move the new guy to 1B until Freddie
Freeman is ready.
s/
Marty Winn
>
> > we haven't been able to replace LaRoche's bat at 1B.
>
> you mispelt "mcgriff's." hth
I think Galarraga did a good job for a while.
Tarkus
And he even played a little defense.
Colin William
> The fact that Matt Diaz and Martin Prado are competing for the title
> of "best corner offensive player not named Chipper" is just terrible.
> Those guys are spare parts on a pennant worthy club. You don't want
> to block Schafer and Heyward with a long term contract but I'd
> seriously try to move Hudson's final year ($12 mil) add in the change
> they're paying Glavine, Anderson and Francoeur (2.5, 1 and 3.5) and
> make a run at Jason Bay. Four years, $15 mil or thereabouts. Would
> consider something lesser for Holliday. If Schafer and Heyward push
> the OF situation early then move the new guy to 1B until Freddie
> Freeman is ready.
I have a hard time believing Bay could be had for $15m. His perception
isn't as lofty as was teixeira's, but I still think he'll command a
pretty hefty payday.
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
Tex was 28 years old and heading into peak production, with a career
line already at 289/378/542.
Bay will be 31 with a career line of 281/375/519.
Bay will be paid, and paid well, but he shouldn't get Teixeira money.
The only thing that would make that likley would be a bidding war
between Boston and NYY.
s/
Colin William
> Tex was 28 years old and heading into peak production, with a career
> line already at 289/378/542.
>
> Bay will be 31 with a career line of 281/375/519.
>
> Bay will be paid, and paid well, but he shouldn't get Teixeira money.
> The only thing that would make that likley would be a bidding war
> between Boston and NYY.
I think that's exactly the reason he'll be out of the Braves' price
range. I can see him coming in at $18-20m. Even if not a bidding war
between those two teams, there's a good chance the Braves would find
themselves bidding against the Red Sox. And we'd likely have to outbid
them by a good margin to get him out of an environment of guaranteed
contention.
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
A fair point, but I think they should get into the bidding even if
they lose, and then spin to Holliday if Bay falls through. After
Holliday you're into the Rick Ankiel/Andruw Jones portion of the OF
class.
s/
Colin William
> A fair point, but I think they should get into the bidding even if
> they lose, and then spin to Holliday if Bay falls through. After
> Holliday you're into the Rick Ankiel/Andruw Jones portion of the OF
> class.
I wonder if they're more likely to target 1B this winter. Looks like
there are a bunch of 1B hitting the market, might lead to a lot of
low-end, short contracts like those we saw for poor defensive OFs last year:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html
Just saw that Andruw had a 3HR night last night. And on the road, too -
his OPS had been 170+ points lower on the road than at home. I still
don't think I'd have him back, though. Meanwhile, Ankiel appears to have
cratered. Oy.
I see the Yankees are playing Hideki Matsui at DH; is his OF defense
that bad? He might be a cheap, short-contract (given age) possibility.
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
> Sam Hutcheson wrote:
> > A fair point, but I think they should get into the bidding even if
> > they lose, and then spin to Holliday if Bay falls through. After
> > Holliday you're into the Rick Ankiel/Andruw Jones portion of the OF
> > class.
>
> I wonder if they're more likely to target 1B this winter. Looks like
> there are a bunch of 1B hitting the market, might lead to a lot of
> low-end, short contracts like those we saw for poor defensive OFs last year:
>
> http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html
I'd certainly take a 2 year flyer on Russ Branyan or Nick Johnson.
Johnson would be a welcome site in the middle of Atlanta's order.
Even so, you'd need to purchase a stop-gap right fielder - Randy Winn
or Xavier Nady or some such - to hold the spot until Heyward comes
up. I have every confidence that Francoeur will be DFA'd this winter
so you have to get someone to fill that defensive position until at
least midseason 2010 (more likley 2011.)
> I see the Yankees are playing Hideki Matsui at DH; is his OF defense
> that bad? He might be a cheap, short-contract (given age) possibility.
When asked if Matsui could play LF this year the Yankees trainer is
rumored to have said "His knee would explode." He's a DH only at this
point.
s/
Colin William
> I'd certainly take a 2 year flyer on Russ Branyan or Nick Johnson.
> Johnson would be a welcome site in the middle of Atlanta's order.
> Even so, you'd need to purchase a stop-gap right fielder - Randy Winn
> or Xavier Nady or some such - to hold the spot until Heyward comes
> up. I have every confidence that Francoeur will be DFA'd this winter
> so you have to get someone to fill that defensive position until at
> least midseason 2010 (more likley 2011.)
Didn't we have Branyan, albeit briefly, a few years ago? I forget if he
made the ML roster or was just in spring training. Maybe I'm mixing him
up with someone else. Nick Johnson certainly brings some good qualities
His extreme fragility will make him cheap enough to be worth the risk in
a rebuilding year, though he doesn't help solve our complete lack of
power. If we don't get power at 1B, we absolutely have to get it in RF
or CF. Doesn't need to be 30-40 HR power, 20 would be a maor boost for
this lineaup.
>> I see the Yankees are playing Hideki Matsui at DH; is his OF defense
>> that bad? He might be a cheap, short-contract (given age) possibility.
>
> When asked if Matsui could play LF this year the Yankees trainer is
> rumored to have said "His knee would explode." He's a DH only at this
> point.
Egad.
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
> Sam Hutcheson wrote:
> > I'd certainly take a 2 year flyer on Russ Branyan or Nick Johnson.
> > Johnson would be a welcome site in the middle of Atlanta's order.
> > Even so, you'd need to purchase a stop-gap right fielder - Randy Winn
> > or Xavier Nady or some such - to hold the spot until Heyward comes
> > up. I have every confidence that Francoeur will be DFA'd this winter
> > so you have to get someone to fill that defensive position until at
> > least midseason 2010 (more likley 2011.)
>
> Didn't we have Branyan, albeit briefly, a few years ago? I forget if he
> made the ML roster or was just in spring training. Maybe I'm mixing him
> up with someone else. Nick Johnson certainly brings some good qualities
> His extreme fragility will make him cheap enough to be worth the risk in
> a rebuilding year, though he doesn't help solve our complete lack of
> power. If we don't get power at 1B, we absolutely have to get it in RF
> or CF. Doesn't need to be 30-40 HR power, 20 would be a maor boost for
> this lineaup.
Sure, you'd like to find power, but the only real 30+ HR threats in
the free agent class are Bay and (maybe) Holliday. No one on the 1B
list really screams slugging monster. At this point the Braves need
offense. Johnson gets on base, which is a lot better than anyone in
our RF/1B mix can say at this point. I don't believe Kotchman will
ever be more than a less ugly Rico Brogna, not with Turner Field's
power alleys. Johnson won't slug .600 for you but he will get on base
40% of the time and extend the lineup. That is worthwhile.
The other option is to look for a 3B and move Chipper across. Joe
Crede and Troy Glaus could probably be had cheaply enough.
(And yes, Branyan was with Atlanta for a few months. K'd all the
time, got cut. He's sort of reborn in Seattle this year.)
s/
Sam Hutcheson
Ixnay on the EdeCray. Just looked at his numbers. Total flameout.
Troy Glaus I'd do. Another possible flyer would be a short term deal
for Vladdy.
s/
Colin William
> Sure, you'd like to find power, but the only real 30+ HR threats in
> the free agent class are Bay and (maybe) Holliday. No one on the 1B
> list really screams slugging monster. At this point the Braves need
> offense. Johnson gets on base, which is a lot better than anyone in
> our RF/1B mix can say at this point. I don't believe Kotchman will
> ever be more than a less ugly Rico Brogna, not with Turner Field's
> power alleys. Johnson won't slug .600 for you but he will get on base
> 40% of the time and extend the lineup. That is worthwhile.
Good points. We're stuck with the FA class that is, not the FA class we
want.
The pitching side gives us depth to work with for trade, the question is
when to move on it. If we still view 2010 as a transition year, then
either of Hudson or Vazquez becomes tradeable. I have no idea how the
"mutual option" for the former works. Vazquez would bring more unless
Hudson comes back strong. I'd rather not trade Vazquez, since he's good
for a lot of innings, but since he's only signed through 2010 he likely
won't be part of the next good team.
Vazquez also would likely bring more this month than in the offseason,
given pennant race pressures of teams to make moves. However, if we
unload Vazquez, that places a lot of pressure on the team to retain Hudson.
the other area that's going to need attention is the closer situation. I
would bet both Soriano and Gonzalez are going to be offered some major
coin in the offseason, and it's difficult for me to imagine the Braves
retaining one of them.
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
I expect the Braves to keep one but not both of the closers. In point
of fact, I'd use either of those guys as bait at the trading deadline
instead of Vasquez and pour money into resigning the other. I'd
prefer to keep Soriano but Gonzalez isn't a bad option.
The problem with trading Vasquez is, to quote a Fox Sports colunist of
all people, is that no one available in return is worth Javy Vasquez.
Milwaukee isn't going to send Ryan Braun over, regardless of how badly
they need starters. And Javy Vasquez is probably more valuable than
Prince Fielder (even if Milwaukee would make that deal, which they
might not.) Cleveland's not selling Shin-Soo Choo. LA isn't moving
Matt Kemp. No one who is looking to buy a starter is going to give up
what Vasquez should demand, and you don't give up Vasquez for a half
year of Matt Holliday. Unless someone blows you away, Vasquez stays.
If they blow you away, okay.
I'd be on the phone with Colorado all month. They have extra offense
and no relievers. If they would part with Brad Hawpe for Mike
Gonzalez, I'd do that in a heartbeat. If they want to move Garret
Atkins, not so much. The Braves should approach the rest of July with
the "an OF or 1B upgrade would be nice, but if it doesn't happen we'll
deal a starter this winter" mindset. You'll know more about what
Hudson is going to give you in his walk year, and you'll have more
bidders at the table than just the "we're in it now" crowd.
s/
Colin William
> The problem with trading Vasquez is, to quote a Fox Sports colunist of
> all people, is that no one available in return is worth Javy Vasquez.
Well, "worth" is a variable concept, just depends on if they have
players who can meet our needs. I think the interesting thing will be to
see what happens with Roy Halladay. Vazquez isn't Halladay, but he's a
fine consolation prize, and it'll be interesting to see what kind of
haul Halladay brings for the Jays.
Colin