Heyward will not return to AFL
Colin William
Heyward played just four games in the AFL before being shut down on Oct.
17 because of discomfort in the region where his hamstring meets his
gluteal muscles.
According to an industry source, the Braves doctors have projected that
Heyward should return to health after a few weeks of rest and rehab.
With the AFL's regular season concluding on Nov. 17, there wasn't any
reason for the 20-year-old outfielder to rush back to action.
(Hopefully you didn't read the subject line as ATL.)
Colin
Joe Schmoe
news:7kpauaF...@mid.individual.net...
I hope this means that Mr. Wren is not counting on Heyward for the big club
next year. He needs to approach this offseason as if Heyward needs more
seasoning.
Sam Hutcheson
> "Colin William" <colintwill...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:7kpauaF...@mid.individual.net...
>
> >http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/10/heyward_will_not_retur...
>
> > Heyward played just four games in the AFL before being shut down on Oct.
> > 17 because of discomfort in the region where his hamstring meets his
> > gluteal muscles.
>
> > According to an industry source, the Braves doctors have projected that
> > Heyward should return to health after a few weeks of rest and rehab. With
> > the AFL's regular season concluding on Nov. 17, there wasn't any reason
> > for the 20-year-old outfielder to rush back to action.
>
> > (Hopefully you didn't read the subject line as ATL.)
>
> > Colin
>
> I hope this means that Mr. Wren is not counting on Heyward for the big club
> next year. He needs to approach this offseason as if Heyward needs more
> seasoning.
Depending on how the glute/hammy thing heals he may go to the Winter
Leagues to play. He is still well in the mix for an OF spot in
Atlanta next year, and rightly so. Bill James' 2010 projections have
Heyward being an essentially identical hitter to Yunel Escobar next
year (in MLB), as a 20 year old.
The Braves need to resign LaRoche (and not get hung up on the third
year he's asking for - Freddie Freeman is not Jason Heyward.) It
would be nice if they could move Lowe and get an experienced RH bat in
LF but as long as they get LaRoche back at 1B the OF is actually
pretty stable as is.
s/
Joe Schmoe
The Braves need to resign LaRoche (and not get hung up on the third
year he's asking for - Freddie Freeman is not Jason Heyward.) It
would be nice if they could move Lowe and get an experienced RH bat in
LF but as long as they get LaRoche back at 1B the OF is actually
pretty stable as is.
s/
<
This offseason is going to be pretty boring compared to last year...Just a
couple of moves to make. 'Course we need a few more relief pitchers.
Sam Hutcheson
> This offseason is going to be pretty boring compared to last year...Just a
> couple of moves to make. 'Course we need a few more relief pitchers.
I welcome the return of boring old excellence. The whole "scramble in
the off season to try and fix this sinking ship thing" is exciting,
but then again, so is war. I'd prefer to avoid either.
The other thing to keep in mind about this winter is that Wren has
gone full-Schuerholz-lock-down on rumors. He got burned bad by
floating "things we're trying" to the press early. He probably won't
do that again this year. With that said, what he seems to be trying
to do (various sources here):
1. Extend Tim Hudson.
2. Flip Derek Lowe to someone willing to take on his contract.
2a. Extend Javy Vazquez.
3. Resign LaRoche.
4. Find a RH power bat for the OF.
There are a couple of ways to make that plan work. He could move Lowe
to Texas for Nelson Cruz. That solves the RH power and the money
angle. He could move Lowe to Chicago for Milton Bradley. Not sure
where he'd find money to extend Vazquez in that scenario. Or he could
move Lowe for spare parts - say a couple of relievers - just a
straight salary dump. If he did that he'd have money to sign Matt
Holliday, who the Braves appear to be players for early.
s/
Dale Hicks
@q40g2000prh.googlegroups.com>, sa...@bellsouth.net says...
>
> There are a couple of ways to make that plan work. He could move Lowe
> to Texas for Nelson Cruz. That solves the RH power and the money
> angle.
Who'd make that trade? A 37 year old pitcher who just showed a hint
of decline signed for $15 million for three years in exchange for a
29 year old who lead your team in HR (second in OPS) for $400k who is
still a year from arbitration.
Just so you know, so far Cruz has shown reverse splits:
261/324/494 vs RHP
242/314/426 vs LHP.
Still, that's much better than hoping for Diaz to play as he did this
year or trusting a rookie to make an adjustment in a possible
contention year.
--
Cranial Crusader dgh 1138 at bell south point net
Sam Hutcheson
> In article <e0e88287-a143-47a2-903a-7c6feeecdee7
>
>
>
> > There are a couple of ways to make that plan work. He could move Lowe
> > to Texas for Nelson Cruz. That solves the RH power and the money
> > angle.
>
> Who'd make that trade? A 37 year old pitcher who just showed a hint
> of decline signed for $15 million for three years in exchange for a
> 29 year old who lead your team in HR (second in OPS) for $400k who is
> still a year from arbitration.
>
> Just so you know, so far Cruz has shown reverse splits:
> 261/324/494 vs RHP
> 242/314/426 vs LHP.
>
> Still, that's much better than hoping for Diaz to play as he did this
> year or trusting a rookie to make an adjustment in a possible
> contention year.
A team with an excess of OFs and a dearth of starting pitchers. LIke
Texas.
s/
Colin William
> There are a couple of ways to make that plan work. He could move Lowe
> to Texas for Nelson Cruz. That solves the RH power and the money
> angle. He could move Lowe to Chicago for Milton Bradley. Not sure
> where he'd find money to extend Vazquez in that scenario. Or he could
> move Lowe for spare parts - say a couple of relievers - just a
> straight salary dump. If he did that he'd have money to sign Matt
> Holliday, who the Braves appear to be players for early.
How much do you think Holliday is going to get in this market? Seems
like a fairly shallow OF market, but Holliday seems overrated to me.
Also, how much cash do you think the Braves have to eat to unload Lowe?
Colin
Sam Hutcheson
I'm not sure what the market rate will be for Holliday. He and Boras
are asking for 5 years/$15+ which seems way too much for me. But last
year's OF market sort of shot a hole in the assumption that the player
is going to get what he wants. How much of the Dunn/Abreu/Burrell
market will trickle down to Holliday?
If they could get him for 3/15 I'd be fine with it. If they want more
than three years, I'd walk away.
I'd just be guessing wildly about money and Lowe. I know what I'd be
looking for - how much I'd personally eat would depend on what they
were giving back - but I am not Frank Wren.
s/
Colin William
> I'm not sure what the market rate will be for Holliday. He and Boras
> are asking for 5 years/$15+ which seems way too much for me. But last
> year's OF market sort of shot a hole in the assumption that the player
> is going to get what he wants. How much of the Dunn/Abreu/Burrell
> market will trickle down to Holliday?
> If they could get him for 3/15 I'd be fine with it. If they want more
> than three years, I'd walk away.
Holliday is a better player than those guys. Frankly, he's a better
player than I thought. He's on a four year run right now with OPS+ marks
of 137, 150, 140 and 142. This year he hit 313/394/515 on the season,
with 109 RBI in the mix just for good measure. He's perceived as a
strong defender, albeit in LF.
Dunn, Abreu and Burrell all went into last offseason with recent OPS+
marks of 115-130, and strong perceived liabilities in defense, age,
and/or attitude.
Many GMs likely do not use OPS+ as a metric, but if anything OPS+ is a
metric that hurts Holliday's case, since it brings some of his Colorado
numbers back down to earth a little.
By way ofcomparison, Teixeria had OPS+ marks the last four seasons
before free agency of 144, 126, 150 and 151. Also seen as a plus
defender, albeit at 1B.
I don't think Holliday will get close to Tex money unless there's a
bidding war involving NY, but I don't see him coming in as low as 3/45.
Colin
Tomasz Radko
> Holliday is a better player than those guys. Frankly, he's a better
> player than I thought. He's on a four year run right now with OPS+ marks
> of 137, 150, 140 and 142. This year he hit 313/394/515 on the season,
> with 109 RBI in the mix just for good measure. He's perceived as a
> strong defender, albeit in LF.
>
> Dunn, Abreu and Burrell all went into last offseason with recent OPS+
> marks of 115-130, and strong perceived liabilities in defense, age,
> and/or attitude.
(...)
> I don't think Holliday will get close to Tex money unless there's a
> bidding war involving NY, but I don't see him coming in as low as 3/45.
And there were several OF players with similar production competing on
the market last offseason (Dunn, Burrell, Abreu, and this guy from
Marinesr who's signed with Phillies, I got it, Ibanez) and, what's more,
there were others, more productive than these OFs. Is anybody better
than Holliday on market this offseason? Of course the demand will be
lower too, but 45/3 looks very optimistic (or pessimistic, it depends on
your POV).
pzdr
TRad
Colin William
> And there were several OF players with similar production competing on
> the market last offseason (Dunn, Burrell, Abreu, and this guy from
> Marinesr who's signed with Phillies, I got it, Ibanez) and, what's more,
> there were others, more productive than these OFs. Is anybody better
> than Holliday on market this offseason? Of course the demand will be
> lower too, but 45/3 looks very optimistic (or pessimistic, it depends on
> your POV).
Jason Bay is the only other top OF out there - higher OPS than Holliday
and lower OPS+. All in all I'd say the two are pretty comparable. If a
bidding war takes place, the fist to sign will get a pile of cash and
the other will get a decent consolation prize.
The unknown here is how much worse MLB revenues are projected to be in
2010 than they were in 2009, and what effect that will have. Some team
owners are facing notable financial turbulence.
Colin