Bias is one of the most outrageous. Lving on the West coast, admittedly I am
not aware of there being ANY : other than a few Breeder's Cup days at
Gulfsteram and Churchill. Got a belly laugh when the Woodbine guy today (as
he does periodically...could show him on his tapes) talks about an inside
speed bias. THERE ALWAYS IS. Simple geometry , if you are futher out, the
circumference is larger, longer to traverse, and than takes longer. My
question is. if this is souch a prominant thing (bias) why do we never hear
the opposite: "There is an outside closers bias today." Dr. WIlliam Qurin
stats showed that early speed is what he called "the universal variant."
Then the peripehral stuff gets outrageous. Could probably PROVE with
statistics, that so and so trainer has a 60% win aveage when he runs maiden
geldings on Tuesdays. Trainer intentions are supportive of a good effort,
but the HORSE does the running, not the trainer. When Scott Lake or Leroy
Jolley, for example, look through a bridle and wins over 20% of his starts,
I will bet HIM. Since EACH horse's entrance into a contest, represents a
DISTINCT racing opportunity, at a time in the form cycle that may or may not
come again, versus competition that may never come up exactly that way
again, who's record is more important: the horse or the trainer??
Outside of a very few factors, most races come down to about 5 or 6 things
period....that is IF one can get an idea of how the contest will even run.
That's why the frugal folks pass so many.
Tim Yatcak
>By the time I understand the above..the
season will be over LOL LOL ..I dont
know much and I am not very keen ..but
I know what I know ...
if u ... know what I mean .. ..":":":
>
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>
>
>
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Of course, everything you said about front-runners and geometry is
true IN GENERAL; however the exceptions can make for some interesting
handicapping.
Ocala Mike
In my experience DelMar turf favors closers early and gradually is
kinder to speed as the meet wears on. In the beginning of the meet the
grass (not having been raced on for almost eleven months) is lush and
long and the ground is soft but it gets pounded down as the meet wears
on. I've been to Santa Anita and Hollywood when the bias was
pronounced. Plus for the outside at HP and plus for the inside at SA.
Frank
I saw them cutting the grass opening day , just before the races started.
Didn't look particularly long.
Bruno ( at todays racing digest ) claims that the course is " rock hard".
We had a very overcast June this year and the course was " yellow " in spots
, Don't think the grass grew properly in mid spring, especially on the turn
from the chute ( 1 1/16 and 1 1 /8 ) distances . Also 1st turn is a bit bare
in spots, one can see dirt being kicked up !
deeb
Tim
Thanks. Pays to know these things. I've always preferred on track
betting as it allows me to get a feel for the game that the Racing Form
can't.
Frank
LOL. After the fact? Surely you don't suggest horse
players.............nah.
For those regulars with top notch computer programs laptops can be very
handy. On one occasion when I was at Santa Anita the inside dirt bias
was unbelievable. Horses drawn inside dominated all day. I think #1
won three races. All at long odds and with individual bests for
fractional and final times for each winner and all better than pars for
their respective classes.
By the time it dawned on me (after playing 3 thru 6) I was beaten
(psychologically). I had printouts from my program (All in One) which
allows for adjustments on input for track bias. A sharp player with a
laptop would have had a field day. Advantage for the guy playing from
home?
Frank
Wouldn't have it any other way. The lap top is the way to go.....especailly
with all the late scratches we get locally.
Tim
________________
Ken Woodall
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Ken Woodall