author's melarkey
Tim Yatcak
MORE ane MORE peripheral things to the basics. If I were coming into the
game today, I would be really confused and have often heard a novice or two
tell me that there is "too much information" to digest.
Bias is one of the most outrageous. Lving on the West coast, admittedly I am
not aware of there being ANY : other than a few Breeder's Cup days at
Gulfsteram and Churchill. Got a belly laugh when the Woodbine guy today (as
he does periodically...could show him on his tapes) talks about an inside
speed bias. THERE ALWAYS IS. Simple geometry , if you are futher out, the
circumference is larger, longer to traverse, and than takes longer. My
question is. if this is souch a prominant thing (bias) why do we never hear
the opposite: "There is an outside closers bias today." Dr. WIlliam Qurin
stats showed that early speed is what he called "the universal variant."
Then the peripehral stuff gets outrageous. Could probably PROVE with
statistics, that so and so trainer has a 60% win aveage when he runs maiden
geldings on Tuesdays. Trainer intentions are supportive of a good effort,
but the HORSE does the running, not the trainer. When Scott Lake or Leroy
Jolley, for example, look through a bridle and wins over 20% of his starts,
I will bet HIM. Since EACH horse's entrance into a contest, represents a
DISTINCT racing opportunity, at a time in the form cycle that may or may not
come again, versus competition that may never come up exactly that way
again, who's record is more important: the horse or the trainer??
Outside of a very few factors, most races come down to about 5 or 6 things
period....that is IF one can get an idea of how the contest will even run.
That's why the frugal folks pass so many.
Tim Yatcak
BOB M
start on the inside. In some instances I may pass if the gate is on the
outside and like you said that is just geometry. If you take in all the
factors you will only get the same result the people making the morning
line will get. Of course favorites only win a third of the time. I do
believe that trainers fall into patterns and at a certain point they get
practical and put a horse in a field in which it can win. Therefor
stats that say a trainer's win percentage jump on x start in informative
for the reason stated above....after so many races they know where to
stick it. I have seen trainers who win with a first time starter 2 %
second time starter 6% and third time starters 33%. So no matter what
other info you have you have to balk at betting a horse in the first two
tries. And if it looks real good the odds will go down. But the third
time can be a charm when he has the largest graduation rate at the third
race and the odds are good. The best angle is watching horses race and
trip handicap them all in your mind and figure what they need for
yourself and wait for the script to write itself then plop your money
down...BOB PS take 33% minus the 8 that win in first two outings get
25% win in the third try. If you get better than 3-1 odds then in the
long run it should pan out. unless you study the odds and make new
percentages based on the odds At a certain point a long shot in his
third try may have a habit of never coming in. another words study the
odds of the third trip make adjustments bet
Morehits4u
>From: BOB...@webtv.net (BOB M)
>Date: 8/10/03 2:08 PM Central
>By the time I understand the above..the
season will be over LOL LOL ..I dont
know much and I am not very keen ..but
I know what I know ...
if u ... know what I mean .. ..":":":
>
>
>
>
>
>
Michael Napolitano
huge outside-closers bias. When the racing shifts back there after Labor
Day, the smart guys (not me) will be using it to their advantage when
appropriate to beat the overbet Saratoga speed freaks.
Of course, everything you said about front-runners and geometry is
true IN GENERAL; however the exceptions can make for some interesting
handicapping.
Ocala Mike
F.H.
In my experience DelMar turf favors closers early and gradually is
kinder to speed as the meet wears on. In the beginning of the meet the
grass (not having been raced on for almost eleven months) is lush and
long and the ground is soft but it gets pounded down as the meet wears
on. I've been to Santa Anita and Hollywood when the bias was
pronounced. Plus for the outside at HP and plus for the inside at SA.
Frank
deeb
I saw them cutting the grass opening day , just before the races started.
Didn't look particularly long.
Bruno ( at todays racing digest ) claims that the course is " rock hard".
We had a very overcast June this year and the course was " yellow " in spots
, Don't think the grass grew properly in mid spring, especially on the turn
from the chute ( 1 1/16 and 1 1 /8 ) distances . Also 1st turn is a bit bare
in spots, one can see dirt being kicked up !
deeb
Tim Yatcak
> In my experience DelMar turf favors closers early and gradually is
> kinder to speed as the meet wears on. In the beginning of the meet the
> grass (not having been raced on for almost eleven months) is lush and
> long and the ground is soft but it gets pounded down as the meet wears
> on. I've been to Santa Anita and Hollywood when the bias was
> pronounced. Plus for the outside at HP and plus for the inside at SA.
>
the few instances it is real and not imagined after the fact.
Tim
F.H.
Thanks. Pays to know these things. I've always preferred on track
betting as it allows me to get a feel for the game that the Racing Form
can't.
Frank
F.H.
LOL. After the fact? Surely you don't suggest horse
players.............nah.
For those regulars with top notch computer programs laptops can be very
handy. On one occasion when I was at Santa Anita the inside dirt bias
was unbelievable. Horses drawn inside dominated all day. I think #1
won three races. All at long odds and with individual bests for
fractional and final times for each winner and all better than pars for
their respective classes.
By the time it dawned on me (after playing 3 thru 6) I was beaten
(psychologically). I had printouts from my program (All in One) which
allows for adjustments on input for track bias. A sharp player with a
laptop would have had a field day. Advantage for the guy playing from
home?
Frank
Tim Yatcak
"F>
> For those regulars with top notch computer programs laptops can be very
> allows for adjustments on input for track bias. A sharp player with a
> laptop would have had a field day. Advantage for the guy playing from
> home?
Wouldn't have it any other way. The lap top is the way to go.....especailly
with all the late scratches we get locally.
Tim
Ken Woodall
All you need is the right 5 or 6 but some factors are more
important in different situations. I picked 8 of 8 at GGF because I knew
speed would rule that day. I picked 7 of 12 (not FC) at Churchill derby
day because I knew the best horses would win.
I do not bet Calder (deep track), maidens (unpredictable) or stakes
(too closely matched).
In some races I pick improvers who are overlays, but on some deep
tracks I pick droppers with class who are always close to the pace.
You have to pick the horse whose chances of winning is better than
the betting odds. I study all the statistics and factor percentages I
can. I win. See www.flatstats.com.
________________
Ken Woodall
Ken Woodall
winning moves made. Look for signs of a fast or slow rail, especially
the last turn and/or slow stretch. I can spot some biases early in the
week that last a few days. If 2 or more races the leader is passed in
the stretch, assume a slow rail, deep stretch, or long speed duel is the
reason.
________________
Ken Woodall