Insurgents Take Upper Hand in Somalia
Dan Clore
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/smygo
[When the government of Ethiopia invaded Somalia in December, 2006, it
planned to occupy the country for three months. (What's that I hear --
Countries don't invade other countries in the 21st century?) It quickly
found itself in a Vietnam/Iraq-style quagmire, and is still stuck.
Thousands of civilians have been killed in the conflict, and things are
only getting worse. But the Somalia quagmire will undoubtedly remain one
of the most underreported news stories.--DC]
*****
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=375325
ANALYSIS-Insurgents take upper hand in Somalia
by Andrew Cawthorne
Reuters North American News Service
Sep 25, 2008 04:26 EST
NAIROBI, Sept 25 (Reuters) -- Nearly two years after being driven from
Mogadishu, Islamists have re-taken swathes of south Somalia and may have
their sights again on the capital.
The insurgents' push is being led by Al Shabaab, or "Youth" in Arabic,
the most militant in a wide array of groups opposed to the Somali
government and military backers from Ethiopia, an ally in Washington's
"War on Terror".
"Shabaab are winning. They have pursued a startlingly successful
two-pronged strategy -- chase all the internationals from the scene, and
shift tactics from provocation to conquest," said a veteran Somali
analyst in the region.
"Before it was 'hit-and-run' guerrilla warfare. Now it's a case of
'we're here to stay'," he added, noting Shabaab was "flooded with money"
from foreign backers.
The Islamist insurgency since early 2007, the latest instalment in
Somalia's 17-year civil conflict, has worsened one of Africa's worst
humanitarian crises and fomented instability around the already
chronically volatile Horn region.
Shabaab's advances are galling to Washington, which says the group is
linked to al Qaeda and has put it on its terrorism list. Western
security services have long worried about Somalia becoming a haven for
extremists, though critics -- and the Islamists -- say that threat has
been fabricated to disguise U.S. aims to keep control, via Ethiopia, in
the region.
Some compare the Somali quagmire to Iraq in character, if not scale,
given its appeal to jihadists, the involvement of foreign troops and the
tactics used by the rebels.
In August, in its most significant grab of a gradual territorial
encroachment, Shabaab spearheaded the takeover of Kismayu, a strategic
port and south Somalia's second city.
This month, its threats to shoot down planes have largely paralysed
Mogadishu airport. And in recent days, its fighters have been targeting
African peacekeepers.
"The only question is 'what next?" said a diplomat, predicting Shabaab
would next seek to close Mogadishu port and take control of Baidoa town,
the seat of parliament.
Analysts say Islamists or Islamist-allied groups now control most of
south Somalia, with the exception of Mogadishu, Baidoa where parliament
is protected by Ethiopian troops, and Baladwayne near the border where
Addis Ababa garrisons soldiers.
That is a remarkable turnaround from the end of 2006, when allied
Somali-Ethiopian troops chased the Islamists out of Mogadishu after a
six-month rule of south Somalia, scattering them to sea, remote hills
and the Kenyan border.
The Islamists regrouped to begin an insurgency that has killed nearly
10,000 civilians. Military discipline, grassroots political work, youth
recruitment and an anti-Ethiopian rallying cry have underpinned their
return, analysts say.
With the Islamists split into many rival factions, it is impossible to
tell if an offensive against Mogadishu is imminent. Analysts say Shabaab
and other Islamist militants may not want an all-out confrontation with
Ethiopian troops, preferring to wait until Addis Ababa withdraws forces.
WORLD "NUMB" TO SOMALIA
Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is fed up with the human,
political and financial cost of his Somalia intervention, but knows
withdrawal could hasten the fall of Mogadishu.
The insurgents may also resist the temptation to launch an offensive on
Mogadishu until their own ranks are united.
"Opposition forces at the moment are internally debating whether or not
it's time for a major push," the diplomat said.
Meanwhile, the rebels attack government and Ethiopian targets in the
city seemingly at will. Of late, they have also been hitting African
Union (AU) peacekeepers, who number just 2,200, possibly to warn the
world against more intervention.
Estimates vary but experts think Ethiopia has about 10,000 soldiers in
Somalia, the government about 10,000 police and soldiers. Islamist
fighter numbers are fluid but may match that.
The Islamists' growth in power has gone largely unnoticed outside
Somalia by all but experts. For the wider world, Somalia's daily news of
bombs, assassinations, piracy and kidnappings has blurred into an
impression of violence-as-usual.
Even this week's horrors, including shells slicing up 30 civilians in a
market, registered barely a blip outside.
"The world has grown numb to Somalia's seemingly endless crises," said
analyst Ken Menkhaus.
But "much is new this time, and it would be a dangerous error of
judgement to brush off Somalia's current crisis as more of the same," he
said. "Seismic political, social, and security changes are occurring in
the country."
The United Nations has been pushing a peace agreement in neighbouring
Djibouti that would see a ceasefire, a pull-back of Ethiopian troops --
the insurgents' main bone of contention -- then some sort of
power-sharing arrangement.
Diplomats see that as the main hope for stability, and moderates on both
sides support it in principle. But Islamist fighters on the ground have
rejected the process, and negotiators failed to agree on details last week.
A U.S. expert on Somalia, John Prendergast, said the world had taken its
eyes off the conflict at its peril.
"Somalia truly is the one place in Africa where you have a potential
cauldron of recruitment and extremism that, left to its own devices,
will only increase in terms of the danger it presents to the region, and
to American and Western interests."
One effect of the conflict impinging on the outside world is rampant
piracy off Somalia. Gangs have captured some 30 boats this year, and
still hold a dozen ships with 200 or so hostages.
The violence is also impeding relief groups from helping Somalia's
several million hungry. Foreign investors, interested in principle in
Somalia's hydrocarbon and fishing resources, barely give the place a
second thought in the current climate.
Source: Reuters North American News Service
*****
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7633625.stm
AU peacekeepers mired in Somalia
After African Union (AU) peacekeeping troops came under attack in
Somalia for a third day running the BBC's Mark Doyle, who has recently
travelled to the country, reports on the worsening political and
humanitarian crisis there.
A spokesman for the peacekeepers, Ugandan army Maj Bahoku Barigye, said
the AU soldiers were attacked at the strategically important 'K4'
roundabout - a central junction in the capital, Mogadishu, situated 4km
from the sea port.
"There was a skirmish, which we repulsed," Maj Barigye said.
"This was the third day in a row that we were attacked at K4. We didn't
suffer any casualties."
On Monday, the airport, which is the Ugandans' main military base, was
also hit.
Maj Bariye denied reports that military "tanks" had been used to repulse
these attacks.
"But we had to use the Mambas to defend ourselves," he said, referring
to the South African-built armoured cars, mounted with machine guns,
that the peacekeepers use to patrol parts of Mogadishu.
It is believed to be the first time in many months that the big guns on
the Ugandans' armoured cars have been used in action.
This may be an indication that the scale of attacks against the
peacekeepers is increasing.
'Failed state'
The African peacekeepers - mainly from Uganda, with a contingent from
Burundi now beginning to deploy - were first sent to Mogadishu 18 months
ago to try to help rebuild government institutions shattered by nearly
two decades of civil war and to pave the way for peace talks.
But armed Islamist and nationalist insurgents say the Ugandans are
protecting Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf, a leader they oppose.
The peacekeepers' mandate does include bodyguard services for President
Yusuf - although they say they are protecting the presidency as an
institution, in order to help rebuild a "failed state".
They insist that they would also protect anyone else who wants to work
towards peace.
The main war in Somalia is currently between troops loyal to Mr Yusuf,
backed by the army of neighbouring Ethiopia, and insurgents who are
furious at the Ethiopian role in their country.
Ethiopia is Somalia's traditional enemy. The two countries have fought
several proxy or direct wars.
There have been numerous credible reports of the Ethiopians firing
"indiscriminately" at areas where civilians live, following attacks on
them by the insurgents.
Catch 22
The insurgents also see the hand of the United States behind the Ethiopians.
The US maintains a military base in Somalia's neighbour Djibouti.
The Americans have on several occasions in the past two years fired
long-range missiles into Somalia to assassinate Islamist leaders they
say are associated with al-Qaeda.
This US activity, and the role of the Ethiopians, inflames passions
among ordinary Somalis.
The Ugandans insist they are neutral in the war. But the bodyguard
duties they perform for the Somali president put them in an extremely
difficult, not to say impossible, position.
African leaders sent the AU troops in, with United Nations approval.
The idea was that the peacekeepers should stabilise the situation ahead
of tentative peace talks, which are currently taking place in Djibouti.
But while the Somali government is talking to some opposition leaders
(in a process organised by UN peace envoy Ahmadou Ould Abdallah) radical
Islamists and nationalists have rejected these moves until there is a
clear timetable for an Ethiopian withdrawal.
Here the peace talks come up against one of the several "Catch 22s".
That is that the Ethiopians say they cannot withdraw until a credible
peacekeeping force can secure their volatile border with Somalia.
Stuck in the middle
But the AU troops are too thinly deployed to impose a military solution.
There are only 2,500 of them when the original plan was to send 8,000,
and even that number would be insufficient in the current situation.
There has been some talk at UN headquarters in New York of a blue-helmet
force to replace the AU, allowing the Ethiopians to withdraw and for
peace talks to proceed.
But the talk of a UN force will remain just talk while there are no
volunteers to supply troops to it - and while the insurgents continue
their attacks.
Meanwhile, the peacekeepers are stuck in the middle of the belligerents
with a questionable mandate and insufficient troops.
And ordinary Somalis, as usual, are dying in huge numbers from hunger
and conflict.
Most of Somalia is now insecure.
The government, with Ethiopian support, holds pockets of land in the
capital and near the Ethiopian border.
Most of the rest of south and central Somalia is subject to
near-constant conflict or held by the insurgents.
The UN says more than three million Somalis are in acute need of aid.
Their requirements include shelter - for those who have fled their homes
in the ruined capital and elsewhere - medical care and, simply, food.
*****
--
Dan Clore
My collected fiction: _The Unspeakable and Others_
http://tinyurl.com/2gcoqt
Lord We˙rdgliffe & Necronomicon Page:
http://tinyurl.com/292yz9
News & Views for Anarchists & Activists:
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Skipper: Professor, will you tell these people who is
in charge on this island?
Professor: Why, no one.
Skipper: No one?
Thurston Howell III: No one? Good heavens, this is anarchy!
-- _Gilligan's Island_, episode #6, "President Gilligan"