Difference between pushes and buybacks, and also differencebetween ROI % and win %.
thehc...@aol.com
Do buy backs count as two plays, why or why not?
Example:
A guy makes 1000 picks and goes lets say 550- 440-10 do you do the math
for proper documentation as as:
550/990 = 55.55% winners, or do you do the math as 550/1000 = 55.00%
winners, and what is the mathematical reasoning behind the answer
please.
If the picks on the pushes required money being tied up, where does
that get factored into the the record?
Is this where ROI (return on investment) comes into play? And is this
why ROI and win percentage are two different things?
What would the valid mathematical reason be to not include the ten bets
made on the ten games that pushed, tying up 11 units in bankroll?
I know it's not right to take a record of 2-0-2 and calculate it as 2/4
= 50%.
But If the claim is "I will produce 60 winners in 100 games" why
wouldn't the two that pushed NOT count as plays, when they are in fact
plays, and the money needs to be there in order to make the plays?
Fuck Ray, I want to understand this. Teach me Brian! Teach me Collard!
Teach me Ranger! Teach me Steve! Teach me Ranger!
Thanks!
Mathias
<thehc...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:1169316482.8...@s34g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
Atlanta Ranger
A push, the money goes right back into your account and essentially never
happened. It of course ties up your bankroll while the result is in limbo,
but if you risked $110, you get the $110 back on a push.
Buy back, assuming you didn't middle or got middled, you do pay the juice.
EG on two $100 to win, $100, you lose $10. Many try to middle, such as bet
the fav at -4, the dog at +6 and they risk just the juice with the hope of
it landing on 5 and going 2-0. You certainly don't want to buy back (under
most circumstances) risking the middle. That is -6 and +4.
HC
If a guy is claiming "100 picks, 60 winners" would you count a pick
that pushed as one of his picks? It's a pick isn't it? His bankroll
stays the same, but now he's got one less pick to use to theoreticaly
win to increase his win %. If he wins exactly 60 games, but it took
him 105 picks due to pushes, did he achieve "100 picks 60 winners" or
did he achieve 105 picks 60 winners?"
What if he bought back a game (2 picks) and it pushed . . . 2 picks,
or 0 picks?
What if he bought back a game and it didn't push (-0.10) . . . 2 picks
or 0 picks?
And why?
Atlanta Ranger
"HC" <TheHC...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:1169325502....@v45g2000cwv.googlegroups.com...
Well I guess you are perhaps talking about some kind of contest. I would
say the rules would be clear up front, but if it were say 100 picks, I base
the winner on units won, not winning percentage. Hence, a push would count
as a pick but zero units won or lost. However, it would be reasonable for,
in a contest for a pick to be defined as a non-push. Hilton for example
counts the units won and one gets five picks per week. With pushes, it is
possible for the winner in units won not to have the highest winning
percentage.
Since the only difference between a push and not betting at all, is your
money is tied up while your push is in progress, I'd say I would still count
somebody who is 7-0-2 at 100 percent.
HC
Atlanta Ranger wrote:
> Well I guess you are perhaps talking about some kind of contest. I would
> say the rules would be clear up front, but if it were say 100 picks, I base
> the winner on units won, not winning percentage. Hence, a push would count
> as a pick but zero units won or lost. However, it would be reasonable for,
> in a contest for a pick to be defined as a non-push.
I've actually argued that point on *your* side of the argument. In
*this* case that was not made clear beforehand, it was simply "100
picks, 60 wins."
> Hilton for example
EXCELLENT example.
> counts the units won and one gets five picks per week. With pushes, it is
> possible for the winner in units won not to have the highest winning
> percentage.
>
In the Hilton Contest when a contestant pushes, does he get an extra
pick to use?
> Since the only difference between a push and not betting at all, is your
> money is tied up while your push is in progress, I'd say I would still count
> somebody who is 7-0-2 at 100 percent.
So would I, but that wasn't my question.
Ray Gordon, creator of the "pivot"
> happened. It of course ties up your bankroll while the result is in
> limbo, but if you risked $110, you get the $110 back on a push.
>
> Buy back, assuming you didn't middle or got middled, you do pay the juice.
Not when the original and the buyback BOTH PUSH because the game lands on
the number for both bets.
--
Ray Gordon, Author
The OFFICIAL Ray Gordon Blog:
http://moderncaveman.typepad.com
R. Weber
> pick to use?
Pushes score as .5 units.
Regards,
Robin
HC
Ray Gordon, creator of evasion, wrote:
> > A push, the money goes right back into your account and essentially never
> > happened. It of course ties up your bankroll while the result is in
> > limbo, but if you risked $110, you get the $110 back on a push.
> >
> > Buy back, assuming you didn't middle or got middled, you do pay the juice.
>
> Not when the original and the buyback BOTH PUSH because the game lands on
> the number for both bets.
>
Parker, have you ever heard of the Las Vegas Hilton contest?
Of course you have, it's the biggest, oldest, most well known
handicapping contest in the world.
When a contestant in the Hilton contest makes a pick and it pushes,
does he get another pick to use?
What is your reasoning for not counting a push as a pick?
Why wouldn't a buyback count as TWO picks, regardless of the outcome
short of a postponement?
And why wouldn't a straight push not count as a pick?
You gave yourself 100 picks to use, as an example let's say you use one
of them and the game pushes. You didn't lose any money, but you did use
up one of your 100 picks. Is this not a simple concept?
What if after 100 picks (including pushes) you are only at 58 wins
(which would be a great place to be, but not statistically reliable as
you well know), why would you feel you get extra picks in the amount of
games that pushed in the first 100 in order to reach 60?
I want to have to apologize to you on this. State your case.
HeeroYuy
"Ray Gordon, creator of the "pivot"" <r...@cybersheet.com> wrote in message
news:DJ-dncx0RJgSFy_Y...@pghconnect.com...
>> A push, the money goes right back into your account and essentially never
>> happened. It of course ties up your bankroll while the result is in
>> limbo, but if you risked $110, you get the $110 back on a push.
>>
>> Buy back, assuming you didn't middle or got middled, you do pay the
>> juice.
>
> Not when the original and the buyback BOTH PUSH because the game lands on
> the number for both bets.
Then it's a tie. Have you ever wondered why, though rare, a team in the NFL
may have a record of 10-5-1? It's because THE TIE COUNTS, you dimwit. You
aren't fooling anyone with your inability to properly spin the facts.
Changing the facts, which is what you're attempting to do, and spinning them
are two different things.
HC
Thanks for the answer, and of course you're right.
Maybe that's because they see it as a wager on an event that's actually
taken place and as such assign a value to it because *it is using up
one of the picks*.
After all the bullshit it comes down to this . . . is a pick a pick?
If the event takes place, it's a pick.
The money end of it all is calculated differently.
HC
Each season each NFL team gets 16 games to play. If one of them ends in
a tie they gain an advantage over a team with one more loss than they
have, and a disadvantage with a team that has oneless loss than they
do. That's why in the Hilton Contest, you get 0.50 unit for a tie. You
get the advantage over the guy below you that has one more loss than
you do (on the same number of games), and lose the advantage on the guy
with one more win than you have.
A push definitely doesn't count on the unit end as it results in no
win/no loss, but it's still a pick.
Old Fart
It's one thing, when some loser might take this Inexcusable Failure's
advice on picking up women, but anyone who would think of trusting
Gordon Roy "..i was jesus..if it were legal.." Parker's advice about
betting/odds/whatever, deserves to be taken for everything, by any means.
JJTj
From: sotwa...@mindspring.com (Ray Gordon)
Subject: Time to cast a spell
Date: 1997/12/16
Message-ID: <3496fd63...@news.mindspring.com>#1/1
X-Server-Date: 16 Dec 1997 22:21:43 GMT
Reply-To: sotwa...@mindspring.com
Organization: ICN
Newsgroups: alt.sports.gymnastics
I am a psychic. When I can't find justice any other way, I cast a
spell. Here's another one:
I command the heavens to make this true: Any person who criticizes me
from this point forward will experience the following:
1. If they have a child in gymnastics, that child will suffer a
paralyzing injury in the gym;
2. If they do not have a child in gymnastics, their favorite gymnast
will suffer the same injury.
I do this not to wish injury on anyone, but to tell the Gods that I
have had enough of this criticism, and that if my request in the name
of God for people to begin looking at both sides of this story is not
heeded, then I will ask God to teach a lesson to those who ignore my
request.
Just so you know, I made a similar request regarding Tabitha a year
ago, she ignored it, and her son wound up ill in the hospital for the
entire summer. That is when she made her false allegations against me
which have led to what you see here.
Anyone else want to try me? If I turn out to be right, you will have
no one to blame but yourselves.
Don't mess with a psychic.
Atlanta Ranger
Ah, okay. I wasn't sure what it's about, but who cares what the Nazi does?
I knew of his dad Center City Sam, so I guess the antics and exploits of his
offspring are, well I guess intriguing. But no matter how you cut it, he's
a Nazi. His pop was a trip, let me tell ya.
James L. Hankins
It matters how you score pushes to the extent of the claim that is made. If
Ray is claiming he will pick 60+ winners out of 100 picks, then they count
as a pick that did not win.
He should probably just clarify that he's counting the first 100 picks that
win or lose, which is probably what he meant to do in the first place.
I know there is a long history with Ray and I'm not about to get in the
middle of it, but he's been posting on-topic, picks prior to the game starts
with a reasonably precisely stated goal beforehand. I'd like to see how it
ends.
HeeroYuy
"James L. Hankins" <jhan...@cox.net[no spam]> wrote in message
news:xAzsh.52643$z16....@newsfe10.phx...
Giving Gordon an excuse to change what he said is not a good idea. You have
to hold the jerk to his EXACT words, because he lies and backpedals like
crazy everytime he opens his big trap.
Gary Collard
>
> Do pushes count as plays, and why or why not?
>
> Do buy backs count as two plays, why or why not?
>
> Example:
>
> A guy makes 1000 picks and goes lets say 550- 440-10 do you do the math
> for proper documentation as as:
>
> 550/990 = 55.55% winners, or do you do the math as 550/1000 = 55.00%
> winners, and what is the mathematical reasoning behind the answer
> please.
>
> If the picks on the pushes required money being tied up, where does
> that get factored into the the record?
In ROI, where the $110 wagered and $110 returned would show a 0% ROI for a
one bet sample, for example.
In the case we discussed here, Ray "wagered" $440* and had a return of
$640, or a 45.45% ROI. He is falsely claiming it to be $220 wagered and
$420 returned, a 91.91& ROI. Since he is self-limiting to $11000 wagered
here, the difference certainly matters.
* based on $100 base unit
--
Gary Collard
SABR-L Moderator
gmco...@yahoo.com
http://sarcastipundit.blogspot.com/
"The majority is intent on quietly lining its own pockets. The
minority is intent on screwing with the majority. Neither cares
much one way or the other about governing. Where have I seen this
before?" -- C.J. Burch on the new congress
Gary Collard
>
> HeeroYuy wrote:
> > "Ray Gordon, creator of the "pivot"" <r...@cybersheet.com> wrote in message
> > news:DJ-dncx0RJgSFy_Y...@pghconnect.com...
> > >> A push, the money goes right back into your account and essentially never
> > >> happened. It of course ties up your bankroll while the result is in
> > >> limbo, but if you risked $110, you get the $110 back on a push.
> > >>
> > >> Buy back, assuming you didn't middle or got middled, you do pay the
> > >> juice.
> > >
> > > Not when the original and the buyback BOTH PUSH because the game lands on
> > > the number for both bets.
> >
> > Then it's a tie. Have you ever wondered why, though rare, a team in the NFL
> > may have a record of 10-5-1? It's because THE TIE COUNTS, you dimwit. You
> > aren't fooling anyone with your inability to properly spin the facts.
> > Changing the facts, which is what you're attempting to do, and spinning them
> > are two different things.
>
> Each season each NFL team gets 16 games to play.
In Ray's world, they might play 17 or even more regular season games in
some circumstances. Unless he's wrong about this whole thing.