Risk of contracting herpes from a random encounter with a condom could be around 1 in 150 per year assuming 100 sex acts
safese...@rock.com
http://www.cdc.gov/std/Herpes/STDFact-Herpes.htm#common
Results of a nationally representative study show that genital herpes
infection is common in the United States. Nationwide, at least 45
million people ages 12 and older, or one out of five adolescents and
adults, have had genital HSV infection. Between the late 1970s and the
early 1990s, the number of Americans with genital herpes infection
increased 30 percent.
Genital HSV-2 infection is more common in women (approximately one out
of four women) than in men (almost one out of five). This may be due to
male-to-female transmissions being more likely than female-to-male
transmission. Since more women have it, but the risk of transmission
to the male is less, I suppose it balances out. Less men have it, but
the risk of transmission to the female is higher.
It is also possible, but less likely, to get herpes from someone who
does not have sores. Over the course of one year, the chance of getting
genital herpes from an infected partner who has no symptoms is between
four and 10 percent.
http://www.plannedparenthood.org/pp2/portal/files/portal/medicalinfo/sti/pub-sti-herpes.xml#1097893113267::1510388144222924704...
So, if the risk of transmission if they have the virus with no symptoms
is 4%-10%, or 1 in 25 to 1 in 10 per year, then it's 1 in 2500 to 1 in
1000 per incident, if they have the virus, (assuming 100 sex acts per
year). If you figure a 50% chance that someone has HSV, then those
numbers fall in half. At best a 25% chance that they have it, so at
best the risk is 1%-2.5% or 1 in 100 to 1 in 40 per year, or 1 in
10,000 to 1 in 4,000 per incident.
http://www.goaskalice.columbia.edu/1071.html
100/.75=133
40/.75= 53
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herpes_simplex_virus#Transmission
"Transmission
Herpes is contracted through direct skin contact (not necessarily in
the genital area) with an infected person, and less frequently by
indirect contact, in particular by sharing lip balm. The virus travels
through tiny breaks in the skin or through moist areas, but symptoms
may not appear for up to a month or more after infection. Transmission
was thought to be most common during an active outbreak - however, in
the early 1980s, it was found that the virus can be shed from the skin
in the absence of symptoms. It is estimated that between 50% and 80% of
new HSV-2 cases are from asymptomatic viral shedding.
HSV asymptomatic shedding is believed to occur on 2.9% of days while on
antiviral therapy, versus 10.8% of days without. Shedding is known to
be more frequent within the first 12 months of acquiring HSV-2. There
are some indications that some individuals may have much lower patterns
of shedding, but evidence supporting this is not fully supported. Sex
should always be avoided in the presence of symptomic lesions. Oral sex
performed by someone with oral lesions, or other symptoms, should be
avoided, to avoid transmission of HSV1 to the partner's genitals.
Women are more susceptible to acquiring genital HSV-2 than men. On an
annual basis, without the use of antivirals or condoms, the
transmission risk from infected male to female is approximately 8-10%.
This is believed to be due to the increased exposure of mucosal tissue
to potential infection sites. Transmission risk from infected female to
male is approximately 4-5% annually. Supressive antiviral therapy
reduces these risks by 50%. Antivirals also help prevent the
development of symptomatic HSV in infection scenarios by about 50%,
meaning the infected partner will be seropositive but symptom free.
Condom use also reduces the transmission risk by 50%. Condom use is
much more effective at preventing male to female transmission than
vice-versa. [2] The effects of combining antiviral and condom use is
roughly additive, thus resulting in approximately a 75% combined
reduction in annual transmission risk. It is important to note that
these figures reflect experiences with subjects having frequently
recurring genital herpes (>6 recurrences per year), subjects with low
recurrence rates and those with no clinical manifestations were
excluded from these studies."
Risk calculated _separately_ for male and female:
1 in 4 or 25% of women have it, and the chance of transmitting if
infected is 5% annually, 25% * 5% = 1.25% chance annually from a
random encounter if you're male (1 in 80).
1 in 5 or 20% of men have it, and the chance of transmitting if
infected is 10% annually, 20% * 10% = 2% chance annually from a random
encounter if you're female (1 in 50).
But 33% aware they have it, so only 66% are not aware, so:
1.25 * .66 = .83% (1 in 120)
2* .66 = 1.3% (1 in 76)
Except that some of those 33% who know they have it, could have sex
anyways and lie to you or fail to disclose.
except that perhaps the 66% who are not aware are not as contagious as
4%-10% per year.
According to
http://www.aidsmap.com/en/news/E6C8A220-24C8-4B92-B63E-9D9CAD5C1567.asp
Condoms reduce the risk of herpes by 25%
If condoms reduce the risk by 25% then
.83 * .75 = .62% or 1 in 161 if you're male
1.3 * .75 = .98% or 1 in 102 if you're female
[If condoms reduce the risk by 50% then
.83 * .50 = .42% or 1 in 238 if you're male
1.3 * .50 = .65% or 1 in 153 if you're female] Since according to
wikipedia: "Condom use is much more effective at preventing male to
female transmission than vice-versa." from study:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=11427138&query_hl=14&itool=pubmed_docsum
Risk for both may be around 1 in 150 if you use a condom and your
partners are honest in saying they don't know they have it....
There is a Herpes blood test, but it cannot be taken for at least 3-6
weeks after possible exposure, and it is possible that Herpes
anti-bodies might not show up in the blood for 12-16 weeks after
infection. (3-4 months). For information on the various Herpes tests,
see http://www.ashastd.org/pdfs/blood_test.pdf and
http://www.biokitusa.com/hsv_procedure.htm
It is possible to get oral herpes (HSV-1) on the genitals, and genital
herpes (HSV-2) on the mouth. Herpes usually just infects the skin
where contact occurs, and self infection can happen, to mucous
membranes. It is more likely to get oral herpes (HSV-1) genitally,
than it is to get genital herpes (HSV-2) orally, though either's
possible.
More general info:
http://www.mercydesmoines.org/ADAM/WellConnected/articles/000052.asp
safese...@rock.com
safese...@rock.com
or 1 in 150 if you asked them and they said no, to the best of their
knowledge.
If you use a condom.
However, considering the first scenario, the risk would probably be a
little better than 1 in 100 because there must be many people who have
herpes and are not having casual sex. And considering the second
scenario, the risk would probably be a little worse than 1 in 150
because there is a possibility some might lie.
Still there are unanswered questions:
1. Does one who contracts herpes become immune to further infection, or
does one run the risk of becoming further infected through oneself or
through
another.
2. What is the risk exactly of oral sex. Everything I've read says
that it is riskier to transmit oral herpes to the genitals than genital
to the mouth, but I have not yet found the exact risk. It does say
that in most cases HSV-1 on genitals is not as bad as HSV-2, and I
think vice versa, as while the different strains are transmittable to
other areas, they apparently live better in the normally found
location.
To get to 1 in 100 if you just had a random encounter with someone who
you didn't question:
Risk calculated _separately_ for male and female:
1 in 4 or 25% of women have it, and the chance of transmitting if
infected is 5% annually, 25% * 5% = 1.25% chance annually from a
random encounter if you're male (1 in 80). If condoms lower the risk by
25% then ====> 80/.75=106 or 1 in 106
1 in 5 or 20% of men have it, and the chance of transmitting if
infected is 10% annually, 20% * 10% = 2% chance annually from a random
encounter if you're female (1 in 50). If condoms lower the risk by 50%
for women then ====> 50/.5=100 or 1 in 100
But 33% aware they have it, so only 66% are not aware, so:
1.25 * .66 = .83% (1 in 120)
2* .66 = 1.3% (1 in 76)
If you ask them and thus eliminate 33% of people who know they have it:
106/.66= 160, 1 in 160 with a condom.
100/.66= 151, 1 in 150 with a condom.
Except that some of those 33% who know they have it, could have sex
anyways and lie to you or fail to disclose.
except that perhaps the 66% who are not aware are not as contagious as
4%-10% per year.
According to
http://www.aidsmap.com/en/news/E6C8A220-24C8-4B92-B63E-9D9CAD5C1567.asp
Condoms reduce the risk of herpes by 25%
If condoms reduce the risk by 25% then
.83 * .75 = .62% or 1 in 161 if you're male
1.3 * .75 = .98% or 1 in 102 if you're female
[If condoms reduce the risk by 50% then
.83 * .50 = .42% or 1 in 238 if you're male
1.3 * .50 = .65% or 1 in 153 if you're female] Since according to
wikipedia: "Condom use is much more effective at preventing male to
female transmission than vice-versa." from study:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&...
Risk for both may be around 1 in 150 if you use a condom and your
partners are honest in saying they don't know they have it....
Bob
> Risk would be about 1 in 100 if you didn't ask them if they had herpes,
> or 1 in 150 if you asked them and they said no, to the best of their
> knowledge. If you use a condom.
Why is a condom important here? Remember that 90% of the population has
herpes, usually in the form of cold sores. You are probably more likely
to get herpes from kissing your partner than from having sex with them,
seeing as how kissing is both much more frequent than sex (for most
people) and is normally done without prophylatics.
safese...@rock.com
> Still there are unanswered questions:
> 1. Does one who contracts herpes become immune to further infection, or
> does one run the risk of becoming further infected through oneself or
> through
> another.
The answer is at first you run the risk of further infection, and then
you build up anti-bodies which hopefully or suposedly or maybe for sure
I don't know, keep you from becoming further infected.
> 2. What is the risk exactly of oral sex. Everything I've read says
> that it is riskier to transmit oral herpes to the genitals than genital
> to the mouth, but I have not yet found the exact risk. It does say
> that in most cases HSV-1 on genitals is not as bad as HSV-2, and I
> think vice versa, as while the different strains are transmittable to
> other areas, they apparently live better in the normally found
> location.
This page has a lot of good info on this:
http://www.herpes.com/hsv1-2.html
safese...@rock.com
oneself with herpes on a minute location such as the back of the arm,
so that in 3-4 months after one had developed anti-bodies, one might be
immune to getting the infection on other places of the body. Perhaps
some in the medical establishment could shed more light on this
possibility.
co...@pattayacitythailand.zzn.com wrote:
> Angela S. wrote:
> > That is not how the herpes simplex virus works
> >
> > Angela
> >
>
> From: http://www.herpes.com/hsv1-2.html
>
> "Studies show that genital HSV-1 infections almost always occur in
> people who have no prior infection with HSV of either type (Corey,
> Annals of Internal Medicine, 1983). "
>
> Thus suggesting that both HSV-1 orally & HSV-2 genitally offer
> protection against contracting HSV-1 genitally.
>
> I was not yet considering infecting myself, I was just promoting this
> idea as a think-outside-the-box concept for general discussion. I got
> the idea that you gain immunity from further infection in part from
> reading the following usenet messages on alt.support.herpes:
>
> According to M2slo2cht:
>
> "And once you're infected and
> develop antibodies, you're not likely to be infected again. One thing
> to remember, if you're newly infected (and we haven't established that
> yet) be careful about touching an outbreak and then touching your eyes
> before you wash your hands. You don't want it in your eyes. After
> you've developed antibodies, your not likely to spread it to other
> parts of your body though. "
> http://groups.google.com/group/alt.support.herpes/browse_frm/thread/d72a143ee07a7358/6aa80c0f69f863c3?q=spread+after+your+body+has+developed+antibodies&rnum=3#6aa80c0f69f863c3
>
>
> "1) HSV2 won't spread through your system on it's own. *If* it spreads
>
> at all, it needs your help (autoinoculation) for that. If you have it
> genitally, it stays "below the belt". Doesn't spread to your face.
> (Autoinoculation=you touch infected area, get virus on your fingers,
> then touch another area, and it might possibly take hold. *But* this
> doesn't happen often after your body has developed antibodies) "
> http://groups.google.com/group/alt.support.herpes/browse_frm/thread/6bdad25d397fd61f/83df70a3cafdad55?q=spread+after+your+body+has+developed+antibodies&rnum=1#83df70a3cafdad55
>
>
> "I agree again here. But want to add a caveat. During the first few
> months of infection, before your immune system is fully braced for
> this virus, you're subject to autoinnoculation. In other words, it's
> possible to pick up the virus on your hands/fingers in one location
> and spread it to another location by scratching, rubbing, etc in the
> other location. For instance, a newbie with type 1 oral might rub his
> mouth getting virus on his fingers, then rub his genitals and spread
> the virus there. So wash your hands whenever you may have gotten them
> on an infected area. Soap and water (washing hands) can easily kill
> the virus.
> After the first few months, autoinnoculation isn't something to worry
> much about but just be aware of its existance for awhile. "
> http://groups.google.com/group/alt.support.herpes/browse_frm/thread/26ff4c41b2a80e4e/7d8bc3647b62b849?q=spread+after+your+body+has+developed+antibodies&rnum=5#7d8bc3647b62b849
>
>
> For if it were possible to infect yourself in one small place, I assume
> you would only have minor symptoms as opposed to the possibility of a
> larger infection. You would thus only have symptoms of a small
> outbreak in one place, and you would not be able to pass the disease
> onto other people's genitals or mouths.
>
>
> By the way, they are working on a vaccine for herpes, see "New vaccine
> prevents herpes in women"
> http://archives.cnn.com/2002/HEALTH/11/20/herpes.vaccine/