Probability of making a choice by a person, on the basis of earlier made choices?

[Marcin]

We are asking a man a few questions. After every response we can
check, whether he told the truth or deliberately lied. Lets say, at
the beginning, the probability, that the man will lie and the
probability the man will tell the truth are the same (0.5). If the man
answers the first question and lies, the probability that he will also
lie when asking a second question is (I guess) already greater than
0.5. But, if the man will answer first five questions frankly, the
probability, that in the reply to sixth question he will also tell the
truth is already much higher than 0.5. But how high is the propability
exactly, and how do you calculate that?
(sorry for english :) thanks

[kwa...@wi.rr.com]

The only thing you didn't mention was this: how many questions do you ask?
To get a probability we must have the set of the sample.

If we know the number of questions, then a Markov chain would quickly
predict the probability of T (truth) to F (lie) after a certain number of
questions have been asked. Since, I would assume the knowledge of his
previous answers don't affect he how he answers in the future.

I don't know why you state that if the man lies on the 1st question it
increases his probability of his lying on the 2nd question. We NEED to know
the number of questions to even begin such a probabilistic predictions.

Simple example:

3 questions.

Probability at the start is not determined

He lies on question 1. Probability is now 1/3 chance he lies.
he lies on question 2, Probabilty is nnow 2/3 chance he lies.
If he lies on the last question, well, well this guy's a committed liar and
100% chance this guy lies all the time.

But suppose he tells the truth on the last question?
His is still 2/3 to lying since out of 3 questions he lied on 2.