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Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 12, 2019, 12:52:52 AM7/12/19
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http://tinyurl.com/y5ubahgw

The offshoring activities of multinational firms explain about one-third
of the aggregate decline in US manufacturing employment ..
Between 1990 and 2011, the US manufacturing sector lost one of every three
jobs .. The large decline in manufacturing employment-from nearly 16
million workers in 1993 to just over 10 million in 2011, .. coincides with
a surge in outward foreign direct investment (FDI) by US firms .. US
multinationals intensified their production of intermediate inputs (inputs
necessary for the production of the final product sold to consumers)
abroad and imported these goods back to the US, thereby replacing domestic
manufacturing employment. .. Trade and foreign investment had a negative
effect on US manufacturing employment in recent decades. ..

...

Тут я пoвтopю cвoё cтapoe cooбpaжeниe, кoтopoe кaжeтcя caмooчeвидным. Нищeй
paбoчeй cилы в "тpeтьeм миpe" вceгдa былo мнoгo, нo paньшe oнa былa coвceм
нeгpaмoтнoй и нe былo пpaвoвых гapaнтий, зaщиты oт кpиминaлa и пoлитичecких
pиcкoв. Тeпepь co cpeдним oбpaзoвaниeм, гapaнтиями и зaщитaми oт pиcкoв тaм
cтaлo лучшe, и этo пpивлeкaeт ивecтopoв "пepвoгo миpa". Рaзнaя пpoдвинутaя
aвтoмaтизaция кoтopaя увeличивaeт пpoизвoдитeльнocть тpудa в "пepвoм миpe",
нe cпpaвляeтcя c тeм, чтoбы измeнить тeндeнцию. Этo знaчит, paнo или пoзднo
пpидётcя cнижaть cтoимocть живoй paбoчeй cилы, т.e. дeлaть пepвый миp ближe
к остальному. Игpы Тpaмпa c тapифными пpaвилaми и дaвлeниe нa американские
кopпopaции c тpeбoвaниями бoльшe пpoизвoдить дoмa могут дaть в лучшeм cлучae
лишь вpeмeнный эффeкт. Политтехнологические уcилия пo paзжигaнию кoнфликтoв
в paзных мecтaх миpa, для пoддepжaния тaм беcпoрядка и бoлее выcoких pиcкoв,
тoжe нe вeчнoe cpeдcтвo.

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 13, 2019, 12:49:00 AM7/13/19
to
<http://tinyurl.com/y5ef3qxq> unz.com

Trump’s guiding idea is that lowering the dollar’s value will lower the
cost of labor to employers. .. The main thing that’s devalued when you
push a currency down is the price of labor and its working conditions.
Workers are squeezed when a currency’s exchange rate falls, because they
have to pay more for goods they import. ..

How much more foreign imports will cost depends on how far the dollar
goes down. But even if it plunges by 50 percent .., that cannot really
increase American manufacturing exports, because not much American
labor works in factories anymore. Workers drive cabs and work in the
service industry or for medical insurance companies. Even if you give
American workers in manufacturing companies all their clothing and food
for nothing, they still can’t compete with foreign countries, because
their housing costs are so high, their medical insurance is so high and
their taxes are so high that they’re priced out of world markets. So it
won’t help much if the dollar goes down .. If you don’t have factories
going and if you don’t have a transportation system, a power supply, and
if our public utilities and infrastructure are being run down, there’s
nothing that currency manipulation can do ..

...

Даже если доля производства в экономике невелика, это пафосное anymore
не вечно, и снижение доллара стимулирует открытие новых производств, и
housing costs и medical insurance уже не будут so high в сравнении с.

С другой стороны, у пиндошки есть институциональная проблема состоящая в
том, что сверхвысокие цены на базовые услуги искусственно поддерживаются
корпоративно-бюрократическими структурами. Такова медицинская мафия и
связанная с ней мафия мед.образования. Импорт услуг мог бы снизить цены,
но он искусственно заблокирован драконовскими правилами по подтверждению
квалификации и лицензированию специалистов. Есть также лоерская мафия, и
другие корпоративно-цеховые образования, люто лоббирующие правила в свою,
а не экономики, пользу. Это прямо не связано с темой девальвации, хотя
девальвация снизила бы "плату за вход" для импорта услуг.

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 13, 2019, 12:49:01 AM7/13/19
to
<http://tinyurl.com/y4jbtu6m> clearancejobs.com

The Decline of American Manufacturing ..

At one time, manufacturing in the U.S. was the powerhouse of all the
industries. .. Today, things are different. In 2017 it accounted for only
12% of the value-added economy – less than half of what it was 70 years ago
post war. What changed? .. Two trends starting after 1991 had the greatest
effect on jobs in the manufacturing industry: automation and offshoring.

...

Аргумент про automation регулярно у них повторяется, что она де убивает
рабочие места, а потом уменьшение числа мест как бы неявно связывается с
уменьшением объёма производства. Но ведь владелец производства внедряет
automation не для того чтоб снизить объём, даже если он при этом уволит
ставших лишними рабочих. Дело скорее в том что технологичные производства,
не требующие многих работников, проще перенести - вместе с основным
инженерным штатом - из США туда, где другие сопутствующие издержки ниже.

Так или иначе, offshoring первично.

Const

unread,
Jul 13, 2019, 1:22:42 AM7/13/19
to
Oleg Smirnov <os...@netc.eu> wrote:
> <http://tinyurl.com/y5ef3qxq> unz.com

> Trump?s guiding idea is that lowering the dollar?s value will lower the
> cost of labor to employers. .. The main thing that?s devalued when you
> push a currency down is the price of labor and its working conditions.
> Workers are squeezed when a currency?s exchange rate falls, because they
> have to pay more for goods they import. ..

> How much more foreign imports will cost depends on how far the dollar
> goes down. But even if it plunges by 50 percent .., that cannot really
> increase American manufacturing exports, because not much American
> labor works in factories anymore. Workers drive cabs and work in the
> service industry or for medical insurance companies. Even if you give
> American workers in manufacturing companies all their clothing and food
> for nothing, they still can?t compete with foreign countries, because
> their housing costs are so high, their medical insurance is so high and
> their taxes are so high that they?re priced out of world markets. So it
> won?t help much if the dollar goes down .. If you don?t have factories
> going and if you don?t have a transportation system, a power supply, and
> if our public utilities and infrastructure are being run down, there?s
> nothing that currency manipulation can do ..

> ...

> Даже если доля производства в экономике невелика, это пафосное anymore
> не вечно, и снижение доллара стимулирует открытие новых производств, и
> housing costs и medical insurance уже не будут so high в сравнении с.

> С другой стороны, у пиндошки есть институциональная проблема состоящая в
> том, что сверхвысокие цены на базовые услуги искусственно поддерживаются
> корпоративно-бюрократическими структурами. Такова медицинская мафия и
> связанная с ней мафия мед.образования. Импорт услуг мог бы снизить цены,
> но он искусственно заблокирован драконовскими правилами по подтверждению
> квалификации и лицензированию специалистов. Есть также лоерская мафия, и
> другие корпоративно-цеховые образования, люто лоббирующие правила в свою,
> а не экономики, пользу. Это прямо не связано с темой девальвации, хотя
> девальвация снизила бы "плату за вход" для импорта услуг.

Впервые вижу от Смирнова что-то отдаленное напоминающее истину.

Но, кстати, среднего уровня технологичности производства
могут быть вполне конкурентны ДАЖЕ при таких идиотских условиях.
Было какое-то исследование, которое показывало, что чисто
американское производство - где-то в 20 раз более продуктивно,
чем азиатские аналоги.
Впрочем, ни ссылку не дам, ни за верность не поклянусь, это было
лет 3-5 назад, по одной из вулаховских ссылочек.
Давно и неправда.

А так - да.
Избалованная и исчезающая квалифицированная рабочая сила,
масса идиотских регуляций, как будто специально для того, чтобы
не производить, бессмысленно, дико высокая цена на медстраховки
и всё остальное, мафиозная.
При этом никто из долбо-демократов даже не пытается решить
основную проблему - вот эту мафиозность и бессмысленность.
Они ее пытаются просто распространить на всех.
Впрочем, я тут даже не могу сказать, что респы лучше.
Впрочем, да, лучше, они хотя бы не хотят это увеличить.

---
Const

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 15, 2019, 5:02:26 AM7/15/19
to
Imports from China fell 12% in the year through May compared with a year
earlier .. The biggest beneficiaries of that decline have been other
countries in Asia where production costs are low, such as Vietnam, India,
Taiwan and Malaysia. Many of those countries have seen sharp increases
in exports, although there have been allegations that some of that added
traffic was due to goods made in China that were routed through those
countries without significantly altering them to avoid tariffs. .. There
is little evidence, though, of U.S. manufacturers bringing production
from China back to the U.S., a move the Trump administration hoped the
tariffs would encourage .. "If we were to try to do a factory in the U.S.,
it would be enormously expensive," .. ( http://archive.is/GdL4h )

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 16, 2019, 12:34:30 AM7/16/19
to
http://tinyurl.com/y48gjkca

I don’t know what scares me the most. The fact that dogs are eating human
poop, or the fact that humans are pooping everywhere on the streets of
Colorado .. Apparently, it’s a big big problem that people are doing this.

One, because it’s gross, and two because dogs are getting insanely high,
because well, they are eating it. Why? Because they are dogs and they eat
everything they see on the street. Including your poop .. The dogs are
eating human feces tinted with marijuana and is seeing anywhere between 3
to 10 dogs a week that come in with marijuana toxicity. ..

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 18, 2019, 5:11:40 AM7/18/19
to
http://archive.is/AbCkI

Foreign Buying of U.S. Homes Suffers Record Drop

Foreign purchases of U.S. homes have dropped by half over the last
two years, a fresh blow to the top end of the market in New York
City, Miami and cities in California. ..
Purchases by foreigners are now at the lowest level since 2013 ..
"It's quite striking in terms of the magnitude of the decline," ..

...

Пиндoшкa теpяeт пpeстижнoсть.

ГМ

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Jul 18, 2019, 8:37:33 AM7/18/19
to
Я бы сказал - привлекательность, с тех пор как финансовая разведка США вплотную занялась транзакциями вороватых папуасов.

D

unread,
Jul 18, 2019, 9:06:30 AM7/18/19
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У русских чиновников кончаются наворованные деньги и домов в Маями не
покупают больше?



Bye, Anatol


ALich

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Jul 18, 2019, 9:29:47 AM7/18/19
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D написал:
Или вороватым русским чиновникам уже невозможно получить американскую визу, из-за взаимного дипломатического срача?

А

SB

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Jul 18, 2019, 10:19:26 AM7/18/19
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Так, только у китайских. Их еще и тарифами придавили.

-СБB

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 18, 2019, 10:21:35 AM7/18/19
to
D, <news:qgpqsl$906$1...@dont-email.me>
Основные покупатели пиндо-realty это латиносы и азиаты.

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 18, 2019, 10:23:02 AM7/18/19
to
Medieval diseases, gangs, corruption, crime, crumbling infrastructure ..
Almost a quarter of the population lives below the poverty line.
Another fifth is categorized as near the poverty level .. The highest
homeless population .. Periodic, flea-borne infectious typhus outbreaks
.. along with outbreaks of infectious hepatitis A .. The sidewalks ..
are homes to piles of used needles, feces, and refuse. .. High tech does
its part not to clean the streets but to create defecation apps that
electronically warn tourists and hoi polloi how to avoid walking blindly
into piles of sidewalk excrement .. Transportation system, to be honest,
remains in near ruins. .. Power outrages .. lots of them .. our
antiquated grid .. ( http://tinyurl.com/yx8jhfwe )

...

А этo пpo мecто гдe китaйскиe buyers had been especially active.

Message has been deleted
Message has been deleted

danilow

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Jul 18, 2019, 11:19:14 AM7/18/19
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18.07.2019 15:37, ГМ пишет:
Можно подумать, что до этого финансовая разведка США этим вплотную не
занималась.

danilow

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Jul 18, 2019, 11:25:41 AM7/18/19
to
18.07.2019 17:21, Oleg Smirnov пишет:
Ага, когда совсем потеряет привлекательность, наши патриоты поймут, что
можно бомбить не только Кострому, но и Маями, наших там тоже уже не будет.

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 24, 2019, 12:01:08 AM7/24/19
to
http://tinyurl.com/y2udfuxv

JPMorgan: We Believe The Dollar Could Lose Its Status As World's
Reserve Currency .. In the coming decades we think the world
economy will transition from U.S. and USD dominance toward a
system where Asia wields greater power. In currency space, this
means the USD will likely lose value compared to a basket of other
currencies, including precious commodities like gold. .. Recent
data on currency reserve holdings among global central banks
suggests this shift may already be under way. As a share of
overall central bank reserves, the USD’s role has been declining
.. Countries around the world are already developing payment
mechanisms that would avoid using the dollar ..

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 26, 2019, 3:00:40 PM7/26/19
to
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/51984.htm

.. The law unfolds to the limit of its logic. Innocent people have had
their cars confiscated because they picked up a hitch-hiker who was in
possession of drugs .. Asset forfeiture permits a person's property to be
confiscated even though the owner was not a participant in the crime and
had no knowledge of the crime. .. The police stop cars with out-of-state
tags, search the cars and passengers, and if they find cash in the amount
of $100 or greater the police confiscate it on the grounds that the amount
indicates the selling of drugs or the intended purchase of drugs. .. The
police had used pretexts to confiscate tens of thousands of dollars from
motorists. Only four of the motorists managed to get all of their money
back. ..

The public acceptance of police as criminal organizations has resulted in
new schemes for stealing people's property. Police stop motorists and on
any number of pretexts impound their car. Impound and storage fees rapidly
mount, making it impossible for anyone other than a well-to-do person to
recover their car. The cars are then sold to a contractor. ..

...

Ну мордор же.

ГМ

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Jul 26, 2019, 3:32:54 PM7/26/19
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Чорт. В следующий поедем в Джерси (или Канаду) надо быть крайне осторожными.
Спасибо, товарищ!
Message has been deleted

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 26, 2019, 4:00:25 PM7/26/19
to
> http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/51984.htm
>
> .. Asset forfeiture permits a person's property to be
> confiscated even though the owner was not a participant in the crime and
> had no knowledge of the crime. ..

<http://tinyurl.com/yy84unad> theroot.com

Q. Does a New Supreme Court Ruling Mean Police Can No Longer Use
Asset Forfeiture .. ?
A. Today’s ruling does not itself put an end to that practice.
It simply creates a means for lawyers to better contest those
illegal civil asset forfeitures. But to the individual who cannot
afford an attorney, they are in the same situation today they
were in two days ago.

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 26, 2019, 7:19:19 PM7/26/19
to
<http://tinyurl.com/y4wes28y> rawstory.com/2019/07/

How the government can steal your stuff ..

Civil asset forfeiture laws let authorities, such as federal marshals or local
sheriffs, seize property - cash, a house, a car, a cellphone - that they
suspect is involved in criminal activity. .. The federal government
confiscated assets worth a total of about US$28 billion during the decade
ending in 2016 ..

In contrast to criminal forfeiture, which requires that the property owner be
convicted of a crime beforehand, the civil variety doesn't require that the
suspect be charged with breaking the law. ..

Three Justice Department agencies - ATF, DEA and FBI - do most of this
confiscating. Most states also permit local prosecutors to take personal
property from people who haven't been charged with a crime. .. Even when there
are restrictions on when and how local and state authorities can seize
property, they can circumvent those limits ..

Can people get their stuff back?
Technically, the government must demonstrate that the property has something
to do with a crime. In reality, property owners in most states must prove that
they legally acquired their confiscated belongings to get them returned. This
means the burden is on the owners to dispute these seizures in court. ..

Unless an owner challenges a seizure and effectively proves his innocence in
court, the agency that took the property is free to keep the proceeds once the
assets are liquidated. .. And disputing civil forfeitures is hard everywhere.
.. The process is expensive, time-consuming and lengthy, deterring even
innocent owners. ..

There's no comprehensive data regarding how many people get their stuff back.

...

Вообще, с такими правилами местные эцилопы могут легко запрессовать
любого раздражающего пацака-активиста, и поэтому наверное никто особо
не протестует и не смеет выступать против местной коррупции и т.п.

Const

unread,
Jul 26, 2019, 10:48:00 PM7/26/19
to
Мужик, да ты совсем какой-то мудак.

---
Const

Oleg Smirnov

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Jul 27, 2019, 1:48:50 PM7/27/19
to
http://tinyurl.com/y4vgvrko

Pornography multiplies frequency, duration, angles, positions and sexual
partners, an endless and eternal sexual buffet, except that none of it
is really happening. Similarly, American democracy gives the appearance
of boundless participation by all citizens, for they can't just vote in
caucuses and elections, but cheer at conventions, march in protest, write
letters to newspapers, comment on the internet .. Alas, none of their
"political activities" actually matters, for Americans don't influence
their government's policies, much less decide them. It's all an elaborate
spectacle to make each chump think he's somehow a player, in on the
action, when he's actually all alone, in the dark, to beat his own meat,
yet again. .. Only his impotence is real .. The first step is to stop
thinking of yourself as an American, for there's no America left to save
much less "make great again," and there are no Americans left either ..

Const

unread,
Jul 27, 2019, 10:28:01 PM7/27/19
to
А.
Ну наконец-то.
Не просто идиот, а верный служащий, патриот России.

---
Const

Oleg Smirnov

unread,
Aug 1, 2019, 10:34:09 AM8/1/19
to
Нынешний размер доли США в мировой экономике уже позволяет
безболезненно сворачивать использование доллара, замещая
его корзиной EUR-CNY-INR-JPY. Сейчас оно во многом держится
на инерции. Оперировать с комбинацией валют не так удобно,
и банки разных стран привыкли работать с долларом, бизнесы
сохраняют убеждение, что это самый беспроблемный вариант.
Но этот ресурс не вечен, и американцы сами, их санкционным
рвением, ускоряют его исчерпание. Попытки раскрутить ММТ и
подобные теории также дожны по идее напрячь проницательных
не-американских пользователей USD, т.к. известно что когда
у пирамидальщиков пирамида приближается к концу они бывают
особеннно изобретательны в части разумных обьяснений о том
почему это ещё далеко не конец.

999Vulcan

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Aug 1, 2019, 11:35:10 AM8/1/19
to

у японцев с европейцами пирамида ещё выше

Dmitry Krivitsky

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Aug 1, 2019, 8:11:57 PM8/1/19
to
On 8/1/2019 10:33 AM, Oleg Smirnov wrote:
> Нынешний размер доли США в мировой экономике уже позволяет
> безболезненно сворачивать использование доллара,

Сворачивай.
Message has been deleted

Oleg Smirnov

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Aug 7, 2019, 10:12:02 AM8/7/19
to
.. now there is a very significant data point: China is no longer
the US' largest trading partner. Mexico has now assumed that position.
.. We are now officially of the position that this trade war with
China will not be resolved any time soon, so this decline in trading
seems to be the end of an era. .. ( http://tinyurl.com/yx934sdw )
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