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/Копипаста/ The Future of the Pandemic
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999Vulcan
May 8, 2020, 8:50:34 PM5/8/20
to
Dr. Lipsitch is a co-author of two recent analyses — one from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, the other from the Chan School published in Science — that describe a variety of shapes the pandemic wave might take in the coming months.
The Minnesota study describes three possibilities:
Scenario No. 1 depicts an initial wave of cases — the current one — followed by a consistently bumpy ride of “peaks and valleys” that will gradually diminish over a year or two.
Scenario No. 2 supposes that the current wave will be followed by a larger “fall peak,” or perhaps a winter peak, with subsequent smaller waves thereafter, similar to what transpired during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic.
Scenario No. 3 shows an intense spring peak followed by a “slow burn” with less-pronounced ups and downs.
The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a vaccine), “we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html
извините, что опять без креатива, но по ссылке есть красивые графички
правда, они, наверное, фальшивые, потому что радости от них никакой
The Minnesota study describes three possibilities:
Scenario No. 1 depicts an initial wave of cases — the current one — followed by a consistently bumpy ride of “peaks and valleys” that will gradually diminish over a year or two.
Scenario No. 2 supposes that the current wave will be followed by a larger “fall peak,” or perhaps a winter peak, with subsequent smaller waves thereafter, similar to what transpired during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic.
Scenario No. 3 shows an intense spring peak followed by a “slow burn” with less-pronounced ups and downs.
The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a vaccine), “we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html
извините, что опять без креатива, но по ссылке есть красивые графички
правда, они, наверное, фальшивые, потому что радости от них никакой
Const
May 8, 2020, 9:38:55 PM5/8/20
to
999Vulcan <999v...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Dr. Lipsitch is a co-author of two recent analyses ? one from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, the other from the Chan School published in Science ? that describe a variety of shapes the pandemic wave might take in the coming months.
> The Minnesota study describes three possibilities:
> Scenario No. 1 depicts an initial wave of cases ? the current one ? followed by a consistently bumpy ride of ?peaks and valleys? that will gradually diminish over a year or two.
> Scenario No. 2 supposes that the current wave will be followed by a larger ?fall peak,? or perhaps a winter peak, with subsequent smaller waves thereafter, similar to what transpired during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic.
> Scenario No. 3 shows an intense spring peak followed by a ?slow burn? with less-pronounced ups and downs.
> The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a vaccine), ?we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.?
Не читая, для того, чтобы родить эти три сценария, вовсе не
обязательно быть ученым.
Оценить вероятности этих сценариев, очевидно, невозможно.
What's the fucking point then ?
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html
> извините, что опять без креатива, но по ссылке есть красивые графички
> правда, они, наверное, фальшивые, потому что радости от них никакой
Какая-то бессмысленная хня.
О чём это вообще и зачем вот это нужно было писать и
тем более читать ?
---
Const
> Dr. Lipsitch is a co-author of two recent analyses ? one from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, the other from the Chan School published in Science ? that describe a variety of shapes the pandemic wave might take in the coming months.
> The Minnesota study describes three possibilities:
> Scenario No. 2 supposes that the current wave will be followed by a larger ?fall peak,? or perhaps a winter peak, with subsequent smaller waves thereafter, similar to what transpired during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic.
> Scenario No. 3 shows an intense spring peak followed by a ?slow burn? with less-pronounced ups and downs.
> The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a vaccine), ?we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.?
Не читая, для того, чтобы родить эти три сценария, вовсе не
обязательно быть ученым.
Оценить вероятности этих сценариев, очевидно, невозможно.
What's the fucking point then ?
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html
> извините, что опять без креатива, но по ссылке есть красивые графички
> правда, они, наверное, фальшивые, потому что радости от них никакой
О чём это вообще и зачем вот это нужно было писать и
тем более читать ?
---
Const
SB
May 8, 2020, 9:51:46 PM5/8/20
to
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
У них там в модели глюк на глюке. Прям как у "климатологов".
-СБ
Const
May 8, 2020, 11:03:56 PM5/8/20
to
SB <sab...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a vaccine), ?we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.?
Модельные ошибки и массированные идиотские предположения -
это отдельная тема.
Но предложение отдать это страховщикам - тоже такое смешное.
Но те хоть своими деньгами отвечают.
Ну, пока их не выкупят, that is.
---
Const
> > The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a vaccine), ?we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.?
> >
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html
> >
> > извините, что опять без креатива, но по ссылке есть красивые графички
> >
> > правда, они, наверное, фальшивые, потому что радости от них никакой
> И о фальшивых графиках:
> https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
> У них там в модели глюк на глюке. Прям как у "климатологов".
Это не в модели, это попросту в имплементации.
> > https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html
> >
> > извините, что опять без креатива, но по ссылке есть красивые графички
> >
> > правда, они, наверное, фальшивые, потому что радости от них никакой
> И о фальшивых графиках:
> https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
> У них там в модели глюк на глюке. Прям как у "климатологов".
Модельные ошибки и массированные идиотские предположения -
это отдельная тема.
Но предложение отдать это страховщикам - тоже такое смешное.
Но те хоть своими деньгами отвечают.
Ну, пока их не выкупят, that is.
---
Const
TAZ
May 9, 2020, 4:34:30 PM5/9/20
to
невероятная академическая уйня прет время от времени (борюсь со всех
сил). ;)
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/risk/our%20insights/covid%2019%20implications%20for%20business/covid%2019%20march%2030/covid-19-briefing%20note-march-30-2020.ashx
Ну вот неплохо и коротенько. И главное, можно пока сказать, что как и
всегда, победили силы разума над силами добра - по тихоньку новости об
стапицот заболевших в связи ослаблением карантина отойдут на второй план
и мы войдём в обчную фазу - спасения утопающих дела рук самих усыпающих..
Татьяна
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