On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 12:28:44 AM UTC-4, Const wrote:
> 999Vulcan <
999v...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 3:50:47 PM UTC-4, D wrote:^M
> > > On 4/28/2020 3:31 PM, 999Vulcan wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > > если бы не ввели social distancing, от COVID-19 бы уже были многие сотни тысяч жертв
> > > Это ничем не подкрепленная фантазия.
>
> >
http://isfe.uky.edu/sites/ISFE/files/research-pdfs/Strong%20Social%20Distancing_KY_FINAL%20%28003%29.pdf
>
> > In the absence of a vaccine or more effective treatment options, containing the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) must rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions. All U.S. states adopted social-distancing measures in March and April of 2020, though they varied in both timing and scope. Kentucky began by closing public schools and restaurant dining rooms on March 16th before progressing to closing other non-essential businesses and eventually issuing a ?Healthy at Home? order with restrictions similar to the shelter-in-place (SIPO) orders adopted by other states.
>
> > We aim to quantify the impact of these measures on COVID-19 case growth in the state. An event-study model allows us to link adoption of social distancing measures across the Midwest and South to the growth rate of cases, allowing for effects to emerge gradually to account for the lag between infection and positive test result. We then use the results to predict how the number of cases would have evolved in Kentucky in the absence of these policy measures ? in other words, if the state had relied on voluntary social distancing alone. We estimate that, by April 25, Kentucky would have had 44,482 confirmed COVID-19 cases without social distancing restrictions, as opposed to the 3,857 actually observed.
>
> Если ты не понимаешь, что это попросту вуду, помавание руками
> с каким-то говном, вытащенным неизвестно откуда - то у тебя
> не просто мозга нет, у тебя его вообще нет.
да-да
сегодня про них статья
New UK study backs up KY policy: Healthy at Home has saved 2,000 lives in state so far
https://www.kentucky.com/opinion/linda-blackford/article242367161.html
A new study out of the University of Kentucky backs up Kentucky’s stay at home policy with dramatic numbers, estimating that without “Healthy at Home,” Kentucky would have had 10 times more COVID-19 cases and 2,000 more deaths as of April 25.
But what’s really interesting is that the study was authored by professors at the UK Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise, which is ***funded by the Koch Foundation*** and ***home to the same free market philosophy that advocates reopening the economy without delay***.
“What we do is we look at data and follow it where it goes,” said Aaron Yelowitz, an economics professor who co-authored the study along with the Institute’s director Charles Courtemanche, UofL professor Joshua Pinkston, and graduate students Anh Le and Joseph Garuccio. “If the data told us something different, we would have written a different paper, but the data very clearly spoke to the fact that social distancing and the stay at home orders really do matter.”
я, кстати, с этим самым Аароном знаком socially, сиживал за одним столом, поэтому я про этот paper узнал на днях из его fb update
у чувака PhD из MIT, на минуточку