10 Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip
*period*
November 10, 2009
After struggling for two consecutive cycles on the Senate battlefield,
Republicans seem poised to make a comeback in 2010. With 37 seats up
for grabs � and Democrats defending 19 of them � the GOP is flexing
its muscles in Democratic-leaning states like Delaware, Connecticut
and Illinois. Recruiting coups by National Republican Senatorial
Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas are one big reason Republicans
feel a new sense of confidence. Democrats, meanwhile, are taking on an
increasingly defensive crouch as the party in power, which must defend
President Barack Obama�s ambitious � and expensive � agenda.
Without further ado, here is POLITICO�s list of the 10 best pickup
opportunities among next year�s Senate contests.
Delaware
Republicans turned Delaware into their top pickup target when they
nabbed Rep. Mike Castle, the state�s nine-term moderate congressman,
to run for the open seat. Delaware remains a deeply Democratic state,
with Vice President Joe Biden � the former occupant of the seat in
question � as the state�s political godfather. But Democrats and
Republicans agree that Castle is the only Republican in the state who
could make this a real race. Now all eyes are on Biden�s son,
Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden, who is said to be leaning
toward a run.
Connecticut
Republicans would typically have no business contesting a Senate seat
in deeply blue Connecticut, but given Chris Dodd�s still-tenuous
political standing in his home state, Republicans see a possible
pickup. Dodd has seen his approval ratings dip well below 50 percent
as he has come under scrutiny for his ties to Countywide Financial.
Former Rep. Rob Simmons once seemed to be the obvious GOP contender,
but Simmons now faces an increasingly difficult primary against former
Ambassador Tom Foley, anti-tax activist Peter Schiff and deep-pocketed
former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon.
Colorado
The White House and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are
circling the wagons around appointed Sen. Michael Bennet � a clear
sign that the Washington Democratic establishment views former state
House Speaker Andrew Romanoff�s potentially divisive primary challenge
as a threat to the party�s hold on the seat. Even with the support,
Bennet might now be forced to move to the left on a series of tough
votes � starting with health care � that could put him at a
disadvantage in a tough general election campaign. Former Lt. Gov.
Jane Norton is the likely GOP nominee, but she faces a contested
primary.
Nevada
Republicans missed out when Rep. Dean Heller and former Rep. Jon
Porter � two potential contenders who could have put a serious scare
into Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid � passed on the race. The GOP
is left with former state Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, a
less-than-perfect nominee who is certain to come under a hail of fire
from Reid, who has nearly $9 million in his campaign bank account.
It�s Reid, more than any other 2010 incumbent, whose fortunes are tied
to the national political environment, and his reelection will be
viewed as a referendum on the Democratic majority and Obama.
Illinois
While Democrats failed in their efforts to woo state Attorney General
Lisa Madigan into the race, Republicans scored a major recruiting coup
when they signed up Rep. Mark Kirk, a mammoth fundraiser known for his
success in holding a tough suburban Chicago House seat. Both sides
agree that Kirk will make the race for a Democratic seat competitive.
Democrats, meanwhile, have struggled to find a candidate they are
comfortable with � state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has emerged as
the front-runner in the Democratic primary field, though his
background in banking may provide fodder for opponents.
Pennsylvania
Former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey, once regarded as an unelectable
conservative in an increasingly Democratic state, is emerging as a
strong contender. Toomey has raised a cool $3 million and has pulled
even with or ahead of Sen. Arlen Specter in polls. Specter faces an
uncertain path to the Democratic nomination, however, as he and Rep.
Joe Sestak are headed for the kind of tough, expensive primary that
always makes party higher-ups nervous.
Ohio
With Ohio trending Democratic in recent years, the state has emerged
as the top Democratic pickup opportunity in the country. Lt. Gov. Lee
Fisher is the all-but-certain Democratic nominee in the race to
replace retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich, though Secretary of State
Jennifer Brunner has stubbornly remained in the race despite raising
less than $600,000. Former White House Budget Director Rob Portman,
poised to run on the GOP side, has already raised more than $6 million
for the contest � a hefty sum that has Democrats on edge about
Fisher�s less-than-stellar cash figures.
Missouri
The race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond offers Democrats one of
their strongest pickup targets, as Missouri Secretary of State Robin
Carnahan is almost certainly the strongest Democratic recruit of the
cycle. Carnahan � the daughter of former Gov. Mel Carnahan and former
Sen. Jean Carnahan � has already taken in more than $3 million for the
contest. Rep. Roy Blunt, a former House GOP whip, avoided a tough
primary against former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, but he still
faces an uphill general election battle.
Kentucky
The increasingly competitive GOP primary between Rand Paul, son of
Texas Rep. Ron Paul, and Secretary of State Trey Grayson has created
an opening for Democrats to compete in this Republican-friendly state.
Paul is tapping into the base of anti-tax, conservative activists his
father cultivated during his failed presidential bid to pad his
campaign bank account, while national Republicans have lined up behind
Grayson. On the Democratic side, Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt.
Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who gave retiring Sen. Jim Bunning a scare in
2004, are locked in an increasingly bitter primary of their own.
New Hampshire
Though Democrats are rallying around Rep. Paul Hodes in the race for
the seat of departing GOP Sen. Judd Gregg, the second-term congressman
has yet to establish himself as strong contender. Hodes has just over
$1 million in his campaign bank account and came under fire over the
summer for avoiding health care town halls. National Republicans,
meanwhile, are placing their hopes on Kelly Ayotte, a former state
attorney general. While Ayotte has revealed little about her platform,
Democrats hope that the prospect of a primary battle with former State
Board of Education Chairman Ovide Lamontagne and Republican National
Committeeman Sean Mahoney, among others, could force her to the right.
Volfie999
> On Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:06:05 -0500, *period* wrote:
> >By: Alex Isenstadt
> >November 10, 2009
>
> election?
>
> What changes to Republican policy has ANYONE seen in
> the last 2 years.
>
> They have none
>
> They'e offered none
>
> MOF, they insist that their OLD "pig" is fine.
Because Clay's got nothing better to do with his time than to cross-
post an irritate. It's his raison detre....
John McWilliams
You could set followups.
Jimmy Simpsons
> >November 10, 2009
>
> election?
Because the Democrats are *that* unappealing. :)
Brian Thorn
>On Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:06:05 -0500, *period* wrote:
>
>>By: Alex Isenstadt
>>November 10, 2009
>
>Why would anyone elect a republican in a national
>election?
Same reason the GOP keeps coming back election cycle after election
cycle: The Democrats shoot themselves in the foot every time they
assume power and generally alienate large swaths of the population.
This also happens to be the same reason the Democrats keep coming back
after the GOP assumes power.
Brian
Ubiquitous
>Without further ado, here is POLITICO�s list of the 10 best pickup
>opportunities among next year�s Senate contests.
And you posted this off-topic article here because?
--
It's now time for healing, and for fixing the damage the Democrats did
to America.
John McWilliams
tenjets
> On Nov 11, 5:14 am, smor...@board.com wrote:
>
> > On Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:06:05 -0500, *period* wrote:
> > >By: Alex Isenstadt
> > >November 10, 2009
>
> > Why would anyone elect a republican in a national
> > election?
>
> Because the Democrats are *that* unappealing. :)
>
of republican majorities and what they did to he country and how
appealing *that* was. :)
>
>
>
>
> > What changes to Republican policy has ANYONE seen in
> > the last 2 years.
>
> > They have none
>
> > They'e offered none
>
>
> - Show quoted text -